Closing Bell: Market breaks the fall; Nifty above 25,000, Sensex up 585 points

Indian benchmark indices broke six-day losing streak and ended higher with Nifty above 25,000 on October 8. At close, the Sensex was up 584.81 points or 0.72 percent at 81,634.81, and the Nifty was up 217.40 points or 0.88 percent at 25,013.20.

We wrap up today's edition of the Moneycontrol live market blog, and will be back tomorrow morning with all the latest updates and alerts. Please visit https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/global-indices for all the global market action.

The Nifty formed a bullish harami pattern on the daily timeframe, indicating rising optimism. Additionally, the index has moved above a critical moving average on the hourly timeframe. The RSI has made a bullish crossover in the shorter timeframe, further supporting the positive outlook. In the near term, the index may move towards the 25,350–25,400 range. On the downside, support is placed at 24,850, and a break below this level could lead to weakness.

After sessions of corrections, India is getting some support at the level of 25,800 for Nifty50. Good state election result for the ruling party, contrary to the exit polls, has brought some optimism in the domestic market. RBI policy outcome, though no cut is expected, a plausible change in stance to neutral is anticipated. And investors are likely to focus on the upcoming Q2 results where earnings are likely to improve marginally on a QoQ basis.

After showing sharp weakness in the last 5-6 sessions, Nifty witnessed a sustainable upside bounce on Tuesday and closed the day higher by 217 points. After opening with a positive note, the market continued to move up for better part of the sessions. Intraday dips in between have been bought into and the Nifty closed at the highs.

A long bull candle was formed on the daily chart, which is indicating that the market is on the verge of showing upside bounce. We observe Nifty in the process of forming double bottom type pattern around 24700 levels, which needs to be confirmed with more upside.

The previous bullish pattern of higher tops and bottoms has been negated by Nifty slipping below the swing low of last higher bottom at 24753 of 9th September 24 on Monday. Hence, the present upside bounce could be short lived.

Tuesday's upmove could be a cheering factor for the bulls to make a comeback. Further sustainable upside from here could confirm near term bottom reversal pattern. A decisive move above 25000 levels could possibly open the next upside resistance of 25400-25500 in the near term. Immediate support is at 24700.

After six consecutive days of decline, the markets rebounded, gaining nearly 1%. Following a flat start, the Nifty gradually climbed throughout the day, primarily driven by a recovery in select heavyweight stocks, and closed near the day's high. Most sectors contributed to the rise, with auto, energy, and pharma leading the gains. The broader indices also saw a recovery, advancing over 2% each.

While the recovery in key heavyweights could drive Nifty further upward, sustaining this momentum may be challenging. Nifty faces an immediate resistance zone around 25,150-25,300, with a significant hurdle still at 25,500.

Traders should consider using this recovery to lighten positions and remain selective for long trades. We continue to favor IT and pharma stocks for their resilience and recommend careful stock selection in other sectors.

Markets reversed its 6-session losing streak due to short covering by investors in banking, telecom, auto and realty stocks. The recovery was seen despite weak cues from Asian and European markets, although the short to medium term domestic market outlook remains hazy amid FPI sell offs and lingering West Asia conflict.

All eyes will be on the RBI’s credit policy outcome on Wednesday, although there are expectations that the central bank could maintain status quo on interest rates.

The oversold condition played its part well and after a knee-jerk reaction in the opening trade, one-way up-move was seen throughout the day to settle the trade at 25,013.15 with gains of 217.40 points. Except for Metal, all the other sectors ended the session in green with Media and Auto being the top performers.

With a piercing candlestick pattern, Mid and Smallcaps gained over 2% each and outperformed the Frontline Index. Nifty50 ended the streak of bearish candles and formed a strong bullish candle on the daily chart known as Bullish Harami with a hidden bullish divergence in the RSI which indicates a potential reversal of a bearish trend.

A firm move above 25,140 will confirm the trend reversal while on the downside, 24,950 will serve as immediate support.

Indian rupee ended flat at 83.96 per dollar on Tuesday versus Monday's close of 83.97.

Indian benchmark indices broke six-day losing streak and ended higher with Nifty above 25,000 on October 8

At close, the Sensex was up 584.81 points or 0.72 percent at 81,634.81, and the Nifty was up 217.40 points or 0.88 percent at 25,013.20. About 2884 shares advanced, 895 shares declined, and 94 shares unchanged.

Trent, Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports, Bharat Electronics, M&M were among the top gainers on the Nifty, while losers were Tata Steel, SBI Life Insurance, Titan Company, JSW Steel and Bajaj Finserv.

Except metal, all other sectoral indices ended in the green with auto, bank, healthcare, realty, capital goods, power, telecom, media up 1-2 percent.

The BSE midcap index added nearly 2 percent and smallcap index rose 2.5 percent.

Krishna Defence and Allied Industries has secured a landmark order from the Ministry of Defence (MoD) for the supply of Special Weld Consumables, designated for a highly critical platform. This significant order, valued at Rs 88.41 crores (inclusive of taxes), comes after the successful completion of a rigorous trial order, which demonstrated KDAIL's ability to meet the stringent requirements of high-stakes defence application.

The Sensex was up 511.47 points or 0.63 percent at 81,561.47, and the Nifty was up 193.40 points or 0.78 percent at 24,989.20. About 2638 shares advanced, 818 shares declined, and 71 shares unchanged.

Hyundai Motor India’s Initial Public Offering (IPO) is set to open for institutional investors on October 14, with shares priced between Rs1,865 and Rs1,960, according to a Reuters report citing informed sources. The bidding window for retail and other investor categories will be available from October 15 to 17. Hyundai has yet to issue an official statement regarding the IPO details.

#1 Q2 business update shows growth improvement on track, led by BPC

#2 For Q2 results, expect cons revenue growth of 26 percent YoY & EBITDA margin at 6 percent, up 50 bps QoQ

#3 Q2 results expectations are still lower compared to FY25 expectation of 29 percent YoY revenue

The company board approved the issue and allotment of 12,93,604 equity shares, to eligible QIBs at the issue price of Rs 1,045 per equity share (including a premium of Rs 1,035 per equity share, aggregating to Rs 13,518.16 lakhs, pursuant to the QIP.

Net profit at Rs 45.3 crore versus Rs 1.6 crore and revenue up 79.4% at Rs 461 crore versus Rs 257 crore, YoY

#1 Fast delivery competitive intensity seems to be stabilising

#2 Company has scope to improve take rates

#3 In quick commerce, Swiggy is struggling to keep pace with BlinkIt

#4 Swiggy has significant scope to expand take rates and margins

#5 Raise estimates for quick commerce & reflect Zomato’s plan for its going out business

Zomato's food delivery business is stable, and Blinkit offers a generational opportunity to participate in the disruption of industries such as retail, grocery and e-commerce.

Estimates imply FY24-27 revenue CAGR of 55% and PAT margin of 4.3%/8.7%/13.2% in FY25/FY26/FY27 and value the business using a DCF methodology, assuming 12.5% cost of capital.

DCF-based valuation of Rs 320 suggests a 21% upside from the current price and reiterate buy rating on the stock.

European stocks dropped, tracking an overnight tech-led decline on Wall Street, as China’s pledge to support its economy disappointed investors hoping for new stimulus.

#1 Company reported strong growth trends in BPC vertical with revenue growth in “mid-twenties”

#2 Revenue growth indicates slight QoQ acceleration likely aided by uptick in marketing spends

#3 Fashion vertical continues to see sluggish trends (in-line with the broader fashion industry)

#4 Based on management commentary, expect revenue growth at 25 percent YoY

#5 Expect contribution/EBITDA growth at 25 percent/47 percent YoY, with EBITDA margin up 100 bps QoQ to 6.3 percent

The wholly owned subsidiary company namely Heranba Organics has started commercial production from Sarigam Unit situated at GIDC, Sarigam, Taluka-Umbergaon, District-Valsad, Gujarat.

The company received work order for construction of high rise residential tower “SIBAN” at GIFT City, Gandhinagar worth Rs

269.55 crores (excl. GST) in residential category. The project is to be completed within a period of 31 months.

#1 JLR reports 3 percent/10 percent YoY decrease in retail & wholesales volumes for Q2FY25

#2 Estimate annual sales of 4.03 lakh (flat YoY) for JLR in FY25

#3 Annual sales estimates imply 3 percent YoY growth in H2

#4 Estimate JLR’s Q2 EBIT margin at 5.8 percent vs reported EBIT margin of 8.9 percent (QoQ)

#5 Estimate JLR’s EBIT margin at 8.3 percent for FY25 vs guidance of =>8.5 percent

#1 Expect JSW Energy to deliver solid 38 percent EBITDA CAGR over FY24-27

#2 JSW Energy’s EBITDA CAGR to be underpinned by over 2x increase in operational capacity

#3 See significant opportunities across entire energy value chain

#4 Expect India’s energy demand to register a 7 percent CAGR over FY24-FY30

#5 7 percent CAGR over FY24-FY30 is higher than its historical demand CAGR of 5 percent

#6 Expect upside to estimates underpinned by developments in data centers & EV penetration

#1 Expect Tata Power to deliver a robust 16 percent EBITDA CAGR over FY24-27

#2 EBITDA CAGR to be driven by a 2x increase in RE capacity, robust delivery on solar EPC orderbook

Apex Buildsys has initiated a Rs 38.7 crore claim against IRCON. The claim is being adjudicated by an Arbitral Tribunal.

Apex Buildsys is a contractor for IRCON, and the potential financial implications will depend on the final adjudication of the disputes or claims.

The board has appointed Pooja Duggal as Chief Human Resources Officer of the company, effective October 7, 2024. Preeti Dhall Pal has resigned as Vice President, Human Resources, due to personal reasons.

The company has signed a License Agreement for a 54-room hotel property in Udaipur, Rajasthan. The property will be managed by the company’s subsidiary, Carnation Hotels, and is expected to open in FY27.

Its subsidiary, Ebix Cash, has secured a contract for providing network integration services to Punjab National Bank. The contract, valued at Rs 138.75 crore, has been awarded for a three-year period.

Nykaa has recorded consolidated net revenue growth of mid-twenties in the quarter ended September 2024. However, fashion consumption has witnessed subdued demand in the first half of FY25.

The industry is expected to see a gradual revival in the second half, driven by the festive and wedding season.

Tata Motors-owned Jaguar Land Rover on Monday reported a 3 per cent decline in retail sales at 1,03,108 units in the second quarter of the current fiscal as compared to the year-ago period.

Retail sales for the first six months of the financial year were at 2,14,288 units, up 3 per cent year-on-year, Tata Motors said in a statement.

Production in Q2 FY25 was restricted to 86,000 units, down 7 per cent as compared to 93,000 units in the year-ago period as a result of aluminium supply disruptions reported in Q1 FY25, it added. We expect both production and wholesale volumes to pick up strongly in the second half of the financial year as the aluminium supply situation normalises, the company said.

ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company has increased its shareholding in Axis Bank, it said in a stock exchange filing on Monday, 7 October. The insurance firm has a 0.08 percent stake in the bank, bringing its total investment cost to Rs 2.36 billion as of October 7, 2024.

The acquisition, made during market hours on October 7, was conducted in the ordinary course of ICICI Lombard’s business, with no regulatory approvals required, said the insurance firm. The investment into Axis Bank was carried out through cash consideration.