Closing Bell | Market extends losses ahead of Fed outcome; Nifty below 24,200, Sensex down 502 pts

Indian benchmark indices ended lower on the third consecutive session on December 18 with Nifty below 24,200. At close, the Sensex was down 502.25 points or 0.62 percent at 80,182.20, and the Nifty was down 137.15 points or 0.56 percent at 24,198.85.

We wrap up today's edition of the Moneycontrol live market blog, and will be back tomorrow morning with all the latest updates and alerts. Please visit https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/global-indices for all the global market action.

The Indian market is experiencing a breakdown in the early Santa Claus rally, with the impact being more pronounced in India compared to developed markets due to the rapid appreciation of the dollar. Market sentiment remains cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting and potential policy and tariff shifts from the incoming US administration. This caution is further influenced by India's premium valuation, which is significantly above the current earnings growth trajectory that has slowed over the last two quarters. Additionally, the widened November trade deficit has negatively affected domestic sentiment.

Investors shunned stocks led by banking ahead of the outcome of the US rate decision with focus on the Fed chairman's commentary on inflation & growth outlook in the backdrop of worsening global economic situation. Domestic rupee continuing its downward trajectory and hitting fresh lows also dampened the sentiment, as extended fall could further worsen trade deficit and hit inflation going ahead.

After the initial fall in the opening trade, the Index remained rangebound for the rest of the day before concluding the session at 24,198.85 with a loss of 137.15 points. Barring IT and Pharma, all the other sectors ended in red, with Media and PSU Banking being the major laggards. Selling pressure was also witnessed in the Broader markets, as Mid and Smallcaps corrected by 0.64% and 0.87%, respectively.

Nifty50 has made another bearish candle, but on the hourly chart, the Index has entered an oversold condition, and a bounce is warranted. The immediate resistance and support are placed at 24,370 & 24,100 respectively.

Indian rupee ended at fresh record low at 84.95 per dollar on Wednesday versus Tuesday's close of 84.90.

Indian benchmark indices ended lower on the third consecutive session on December 18 with Nifty below 24,200.

At close, the Sensex was down 502.25 points or 0.62 percent at 80,182.20, and the Nifty was down 137.15 points or 0.56 percent at 24,198.85. About 1379 shares advanced, 2456 shares declined, and 92 shares unchanged.

On the sectoral front, except pharma (up 1 percent), all other indices ended in the red with auto, energy, PSU Bank, metal, media, realty down 0.5-2 percent.

Trent, Dr Reddy's Labs, Cipla, Wipro and Bajaj Auto were top gainers on the Nifty, while losers included Tata Motors, Bharat Electronics, Power Grid Corp, JSW Steel and NTPC.

BSE Midcap and smallcap indices shed 0.5 percent each.

#1 Reckon Asian Paints shall grow slower than Berger Paints & Indigo Paints in H2FY25

#2 Slower growth expected for Asian Paints due to higher indexation to big cities

#3 Higher indexation borne the brunt of urban slowdown due to food inflation & other reasons

#4 Being a Pan-India player, Asian Paints gets affected the most initially by new competition

#5 Birla Opus’ entry in big cities has limited initial impact on Berger Paints and Indigo Paints

#6 Continue to prefer Pidilite over paints players

#1 Looking forward to nuanced scale up of mortgages, ramp up SME lending/lap

#2 Looking forward to build payments, partnership, leasing businesses

#3 Company guides for 5-7 percent disbursements and high-teens AUM growth for FY25

#4 Branch has profitability targets through desired IRR levels

#5 Opex/assets at 2.7 percent with 10 bps upward bias as will aggressively expand footprint

#6 Evaluate equity raise in H2FY25

TVS Emerald (Formerly known as Emerald Haven Realty Limited), a wholly owned subsidiary of TVS Holdings has entered into two share purchase agreements (SPAs) with two unrelated companies and M/s. Radial (Phase II) IT Park and M/s. Radial (Phase III) IT Park for the acquisition of 100% of the equity shares and compulsorily convertible debentures of the target companies from the sellers.

Indian Rupee fell to a new record low on Wednesday on weak domestic markets and strong US Dollar. A weak Chinese Yuan has supported the Dollar. However, overnight decline in crude oil prices cushioned the downside.

We expect Rupee to trade with a negative bias on weak domestic markets and concerns over slowdown in the economy. A strong US Dollar and FII outflows may further weigh on the Rupee. Traders may take cues from current account balance and housing data from the US. Investors may also watch out for the FOMC meeting decision tonight. US Federal is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps to 4.5%.. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 84.75 to Rs 85.20.

The Sensex was down 486.99 points or 0.60 percent at 80,197.46, and the Nifty was down 135.20 points or 0.56 percent at 24,200.80. About 1212 shares advanced, 2259 shares declined, and 82 shares unchanged.

The prolonged geo-political tension continues to remain a matter of concern for the Indian Gems and Jewellery industry, which has led to a slowdown in exports after seeing an uptick in the previous month. Therefore, any critical developments on the geopolitical front may continue to disrupt the trade activities in the times ahead. However, with holiday season around the corner, we expect the demand to stay upbeat driven by heightened buying sentiment.

The Board will meet on December 20 to consider the issuance of NCDs on a private placement basis on December 20.

#1 Indian business to remain the growth driver, Europe business unlikely to recover soon

#2 Management aims to sustain margin of European business at current levels

#3 Company targetting to expand margin of Indian Business to 19 percent over the next 2-3 years

#4 Have lowered estimate for CY25-26 by 4 percent/5 percent due to continued weakness in Europe’s auto demand

KFin Technologies has joined BlackRock’s Aladdin Provider network to enhance its operating model with asset managers, making it more standardised and efficient.

The collaboration will see KFintech join a growing community of the world’s largest asset servicers – enabling it to offer differentiated fund administration and accounting services to clients.

Adani Energy has incorporated a wholly owned subsidiary, Adani Energy Solutions Step-Eleven, for the transmission, distribution, and supply of power and other infrastructure services.

The Board will meet on December 20 to consider and approve the public issuance of non-convertible debentures.

The Board will meet on December 21 to consider the proposal for raising funds via the issue of equity or any other equity-linked or convertible securities.

#1 Temporary hitch in Hyderabad/Bangalore adversely impacts disbursements growth

#2 Hyderabad/Bangalore constitute more than one-fourth of its disbursements

#3 Seasonally robust traction in Q3 might not be evident this year, though should course correct in Q4

#4 Tight liquidity pressurises borrowing cost and will offset favorable yield levers

#5 NIM to sustain at lower end of guidance at 2.7 percent

#6 Resolution through arc sale for cash consideration of Rs 250 crore to release provisions

Despite weak market sentiments Sai Life Sciences debuted the market with 18% premium to issue price which was inline with our expectations. Decent listing gain is justified as we believe the shift of global dynamics due to China plus one and Biosecure act could bring significant opportunities for Indian CDMO players in the coming future. Hence, with all attributes we recommend only risk taking investors to “HOLD” the Sai Life Sciences Ltd IPO with risk for long term only.

We had recommended allotted conservative investors can think of booking profits anything above 15%. While long term investors should consider the company to HOLD IT FOR LONG TERM despite knowing short term volatility & risk in the markets. For non-allotted investors, we advise to accumulate if we get dips post listing due to profit booking attempts but for long term only.

#1 Retail AUM growth will moderate but stay near 25-30 percent in FY25

#2 RoA can improve slowly due to unwinding of legacy book, lower opex & higher fee income

#3 Expect company to see some NIM pressure, higher credit costs near term

#4 Contrary to market optimism, RoA improvement should be gradual (estimate RoA <1.5 percent FY25-27)

The company has launched a Qualified Institutions Placement (QIP) issue on December 17 and set a floor price at Rs 902.93 per share.

Dynamatic Technologies and Aequs Private today announced a contract for the supply of complex structural parts for the Airbus A220 Door Program.

As part of the contract, awarded by Dynamatic Technologies for the manufacture and supply of components, Aequs will leverage its end-to-end capabilities to manufacture and deliver over 200 detailed parts requiring complex tool design, forgings, machining, and surface treatment.

Despite a subdued market along with 100% OFS, Vishal Mega Mart listing was in line with market expectation. I believe retail investors missed this opportunity wherein they had shown less interest in bidding. 33.33% premium over the issue price of ₹78 Listing is justified as we believe it was all because of reasonable valuations when compared to its listed peers and high focus towards catering to India's growing middle- and lower-middle-income demographics which is strategically focused on underpenetrated markets.

Considering volatility in the market sentiments and all other parameters, allotted conservative investors can think of booking profits today, while long term risk taking investors can consider the company to HOLD IT FOR LONG TERM despite knowing short term volatility & risk in the markets. For non-allotted investors, we advise to accumulate if we get dips post listing due to profit booking attempts.

#1 In recent follow up on ‘The Dahlias’ Project, find that company has sold 130-150 units

#2 Estimate total sales to be worth Rs 10,000-11,000 crore in ‘The Dahlias’ project so far

#3 Such demand is positively surprising, especially considering the uber-luxury product

#4 Sales so far are likely higher than assumptions for FY25

The rupee traded flat near 84.90 as markets remain focused on the Fed's final policy decision of the year scheduled for December 18, 2024. While a 25 bps rate cut has already been factored in, forward commentary and projections will be key.

A dovish tone could push the dollar index lower, providing relief for the rupee. However, any uncertain or hawkish remarks may strengthen the dollar and keep participants bearish on the rupee. The rupee's range is anticipated between 84.75 and 85.05.

Granules India's wholly-owned foreign subsidiary, Granules Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (GPI), has received approval from the U.S. Food & Drug Administration (USFDA) for its Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) for Lisdexamfetamine Dimesylate Chewable Tablets.