Closing Bell: Nifty around 25,400, Sensex up 237 pts; bank, FMCG shine, telecom worst hit

Indian equity indices ended on strong note with Nifty around 25,450 on September 19 led by bank, FMCG and realty names. At close, the Sensex was up 236.57 points or 0.29 percent at 83,184.80, and the Nifty was up 38.25 points or 0.15 percent at 25,415.80.

We wrap up today's edition of the Moneycontrol live market blog, and will be back tomorrow morning with all the latest updates and alerts. Please visit https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/global-indices for all the global market action.

The Nifty formed a shooting star pattern on the hourly chart, suggesting an early sign of a bearish reversal. Additionally, the Nifty failed to close above the rising trendline despite a gap-up opening and strong global cues. Going forward, the sentiment may remain sideways to weak as long as the index stays below the 25,550–25,600 range. On the lower end, support is placed at 25,350. Below which the Nifty might correct down towards 25100-25000.

The US Fed's aggressive rate cut announcement in overnight trades fuelled a spectacular rally in early trades which saw benchmark indices touch new highs. However, markets pared gains thereafter on profit-taking in telecom, metals and oil & gas shares, as most of them had rallied sharply in recent weeks. With the US Federal policy outcome now behind us, the focus will now shift to RBI monetary policy next month, and the stance it will take on the interest rate front to prop up the economy.

The markets ended almost unchanged in a volatile expiry session, continuing the recent trend. After a gap-up opening, the Nifty index moved higher during the first hour, but profit booking in heavyweight stocks across sectors erased those gains. Sector-wise, the trend remained mixed with FMCG, banking, and auto sectors edging higher, while metals and pharma faced pressure, closing in the red. Midcap and smallcap indices also saw noticeable declines, losing between 0.5% and 1%.

The movement resembled the US market's response to the rate cut announcement, suggesting possible further profit-taking. However, the downside appears limited, with strong support around the 25,100-25,200 zone. Among key sectors, banking and financials are demonstrating resilience, while other sectors are trading with mixed trends. Traders are advised to maintain positions on both sides and focus more on index heavyweights.

The benchmark indices concluded with a minor gain after hitting record highs post the US FED's more than expected interest rates cut of 50 bps and hinted for further reduction. The substantial rate cut sparked concerns over global slowdown, resulting in profit booking in mid & small cap trading at premium valuation. Meanwhile, domestic heavyweight sectors like banking and FMCG saw buying interest, driven by foreign inflows and the RBI's monetary easing expected in October.

Cheering a 50bps rate cut by FOMC, the Indian equities commenced the weekly expiry day on a strong note at a fresh high of 25,500. But, once again the broader markets dented the market sentiments and a steep fall in the Mid and Smallcap stocks dragged the Index lower; which however, managed to hold its gains to end the session at 25,415.80 with gains of 38.25 points.

Among the sectors, FMCG was the top gainer followed by BankNifty and Realty while Media and PSU Banks corrected the most. Mid and Smallcaps corrected to the extent of 0.67% & 1.26% and underperformed Nifty50.

The Index has formed a Shooting Star candlestick pattern at record levels with a probable bearish divergence in the RSI. The consolidation range of the Index is 25,300-25,500 and a convincing move on either side will decide the trend.

Indian rupee ended higher at 83.68 per dollar on Thursday versus Tuesday's close of 83.76.

Indian equity indices ended on strong note with Nifty around 25,400 on September 19 led by bank, FMCG and realty names.

At close, the Sensex was up 236.57 points or 0.29 percent at 83,184.80, and the Nifty was up 38.25 points or 0.15 percent at 25,415.80.

NTPC, Nestle India, Titan Company, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Tata Consumer Products, were among the top gainers on the Nifty, while losers included BPCL, Coal India, ONGC, Adani Ports and Shriram Finance.

Among sectors, auto, bank, realty, FMCG indices rose 0.5 percent each, while capital goods, IT, pharma, oil & gas, media, metal, telecom down 0.5-3.5 percent.

BSE Midcap index down 0.4 percent and Smallcap indices down 1 percent.

#1 Renewable energy bids have enhanced with awarding at 37-39 GW in FY24 versus 8-9 GW YoY

#2 Company is moving towards its 60 GW 2032 RE target and has 24 GW pipeline in place

#3 RE capacity ramp-up, pilot initiatives on green hydrogen remain rerating drivers

#4 Medium-term double-digit EPS CAGR remain rerating driver

#1 Management maintained its FY25 capex guidance & remains confident of uptick until FY27

#2 Rs 1 lakh crore bids are in tendering stages, which is up 1.8x YoY, & gives visibility on growth ahead

#3 Believe Rs 12,700 crore order & is being re-tendered will see only marginal impact on guidance

#4 Potential stock upside drivers ahead are the visible bid pipeline, higher dividend payout

The dot-plot indicated two more 25bps cuts this year, taking the range to 4.25-4.5%. Another 100bps is expected in 2025.

We expect that recession can still be avoided and continue to actively track economic data. Globally, emerging markets will now have more space to cut rates for their own economic stimulation. RBI is likely to deliver a cut in 2024.

Indian Rupee gained on Thursday and traded at a two-month high as domestic equities touched fresh all-time highs and a 50-bps rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. Fed cut rates for the first time in four years by 50 bps to 4.75%-5% from 5.25%-5.5% range on Wednesday. It signalled another 50 bps rate cut in 2024 and 100 bps and 50 bps rate cut in 2025 and 2026 respectively. Fed said that committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving towards its target of 2%.

We expect Rupee to trade with a slight positive bias on firm tone in the domestic markets and rising expectations that an aggressive 50-bps rate cut by the Fed may attract fresh FII inflows. Overall weakness in the US Dollar may also support the Rupee. However, a positive tone in crude oil prices may cap sharp upside.

Traders may take cues from weekly unemployment claims, current account and existing home sales data from the US. Traders may also take cues from Bank of England and Bank of Japan’s monetary policy. Both the central banks are expected to maintain status quo. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 83.40 to Rs 83.80.

The board of directors of the company approved sub-division/split of company’s 1 equity share having face value of Rs 10 each fully paid-up, into 10 equity shares of the company having face value of Re 1 each fully paid-up, subject to the approval of shareholders and such other approvals as may be required.

The recent US rate cut has had a mixed impact on the Indian economy. While it has provided some short-term benefits, such as increased foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows and a stronger rupee, there are also concerns about potential long-term risks.

The fear of a global recession, coupled with the uncertainty surrounding the US economy, could lead to a slowdown in Indian exports and economic growth. However, the rate cut has also injected liquidity into the global financial system, which could stimulate economic activity and benefit Indian businesses.

Additionally, the easing of inflationary pressures and signs of economic recovery in several regions are positive developments for the Indian economy. It will be crucial to monitor economic indicators closely over the next few months to assess the full impact of the US rate cut on India.

#1 Buy call on Bajaj Auto, target raised to Rs 14,000 from Rs 11,000

#2 Hold call on TVS, target raised to Rs 2,800 from Rs 2,400

#3 Sustained traction for CNG, e-2W, Africa exports drive preference for Bajaj over TVS

#4 Potential launch of Ericks drive preference for Bajaj over TVS

#5 Valuations are rich now; but, relative to its peers, earnings resilience score better for Bajaj

Subsidiary NTPC Green Energy has filed draft papers with the capital markets regulator to raise Rs 10,000 crore via an IPO.

At 14:00 hrs IST, the Sensex was up 211.39 points or 0.25 percent at 83,159.62, and the Nifty was up 27.30 points or 0.11 percent at 25,404.80. About 809 shares advanced, 2594 shares declined, and 61 shares unchanged.

"We believe RBI will lag the US Fed both in terms of timing and magnitude of rate cut mainly on account of strong underlying growth and restrictive policy during covid times. We are already witnessing green shoots of a bullish economy along with cooling inflation and thus we believe RBI will maintain the balance between the economy firing on all cylinders along with keeping a check on inflation" - Vaibhav Shah Fund Manger Torus Oro PMS

The midcap and smallcap segments, particularly sectors like defense, railways, and capital goods, which have performed exceptionally well over the past 2-3 years, are now witnessing a sharp correction.

Valuations have long been a concern in the broader market, yet these stocks continued to rally despite being considered expensive. However, there always comes a point when market euphoria fades. Domestic institutions, too, have shown signs of caution, holding significant cash reserves at elevated levels.

I believe this correction could extend further, presenting a strong buying opportunity in high-quality stocks for long-term investors.

A deeper than expected cut in policy rate and positive commentary by the US Fed indicate soft landing for the US economy. This should nudge central bankers in emerging markets, including the Reserve Bank of India, to cut rates. We expect only 50 BPS cut in repo rate in India by March 2025. We are positive on short- and medium-term bonds.

Rate cut augurs well for flows into risky assets including Indian equities. Current valuations may make foreign investors go slow on Indian stocks.

Market participants are expected to take some profits. Profits should be booked in IT stocks. Nifty 50 index may remain sideways. Fresh longs on Nifty50 can be considered only above today’s high of 25611, for a target of 25850. Stock specific trades on the long side can be considered in select names in FMCG and sugar sector. Metal stocks should be on the traders’ radar, as rate

The Fed's 50 bps rate cut is positive for Indian equities, boosting market liquidity. This puts pressure on the RBI to follow suit, signaling support for economic recovery.

We anticipate a 25 bps rate cut from the RBI, which would further aid growth and strengthen market sentiment.

#1 Management highlighted smart metering as a new high-growth area

#2 B2C interface is rising with access to 12+ m consumers in the Mumbai distribution business

#3 Capital management program focus is on reducing volatility in interest costs

#4 Reducing volatility in interest costs will be done via long-tenure bonds & execution-backed growth

The company has received a contract from Carsten Rehder Schiffsmakler and Reederei GmbH & Co, KG Germany, to deliver an additional four multi-purpose vessels. The order is valued at an additional $54 million, bringing the total value for eight vessels to $108 million.

#1 Earnings to clock nearly 32 percent CAGR over FY25-27

#2 NIM may contract to 5.5-5.7 percent due to rising costs

#3 Improvements in disbursement yields & potential rate cuts are expected to enhance margin

#4 Estimate operating leverage to improve gradually with a C/I projection of 62 percent for FY25

#5 Estimate RoA to improve to 1.8 percent by FY27

#6 Estimate RoA improvement aided by 24 percent loan growth, resulting in 32 percent CAGR in results over FY25-27

Bigbloc Construction has already installed a rooftop solar power project of 450 Kilo Watts. The company has placed order for further installation of rooftop solar plant of 250 Kilo Watts which leads to total installation of approximately 700 Kilo Watts.

The company's wholly owned subsidiary, PT Minda Asean Automotive, has secured additional orders, including orders for long tail lamps for passenger cars from OEMs in Indonesia. To meet this growing demand, Uno Minda will establish a new manufacturing facility in Indonesia, expected to be operational by Q4 FY26.

Uno Minda is also expanding domestic capacities. The company's one of the key subsidiary Uno Mindarika Private Ltd ( "UMRPL") had recently set

up a new plant in Farrukhnagar, Gurugram, Haryana.

In addition to the above expansion in Indonesia and India, our joint venture company, Toyoda Gosei Minda India Pvt Ltd, through its subsidiary Toyoda Gosei South India Pvt. Ltd, will be setting up a new plant in Harohalli, Karnataka.

The board will consider raising funds via the issuance of non-convertible debentures through a public issue on September 23.

The company’s Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient (API) manufacturing facility situated at Dahej, Gujarat, India has received a certificate of GMP compliance from the Competent Authority of Germany, following an EU GMP inspection that was conducted in March 2024.

Airtel Business, the B2B arm of Bharti Airtel, and Cisco, today, launched Airtel Software-Defined (SD) Branch - a simple, secure, cloud-based, end-to-end-managed network solution for enterprises.

Purvah Green Power, a subsidiary of CESC, has entered into a binding term sheet with Ecoren Energy India for setting up wind power project of upto 686.85 MW.

#1 Company highlighted residential upcycle to be structural in nature

#2 Residential upcycle could last over a decade hereon

#3 Company confident of delivering sustainable growth over the years

#4 Continued focus on execution and profitability

#1 Cash flow position of Vodafone Idea will become more difficult without the court relief

#2 Dismissal of curative petition is a slight positive for Bharti Airtel w.r.t potential market share gain

#3 Need to see if Vodafone Idea can go ahead with debt raising plan in light of unfavourable SC verdict

#4 Debt fund raise will be crucial for Vodafone Idea to continue with its capex plan

The company has received a new order worth Rs 221 crore from SSS Realty. This brings the total order book to Rs 3,546 crore as of the current date.

The company has awarded a contract for a 15.4 MW solar power project to Prozeal Green Energy.

As anticipated by the markets, FED is not maintaining a hawkish stance anymore. The rates have been cut by 50 bps as inflation hit near the target rate of 2%. RBI is still vigilant and might not move in the same direction as with the US. While inflation overall in the economy is below RBI’s target rate of 4%, food inflation remains a concern. But the overall improved global sentiment could trigger a rally in the markets because one- emerging markets like India will become all the more attractive and second- we could see reversal of FII outflows that we’ve been witnessing since past few months.

Power Grid has been declared the successful bidder to establish an inter-state transmission system for projects in Madhya Pradesh. The company has received a Letter of Intent for the project, which includes establishing a new 765/400/220 kV substation at Kurawar, along with 765 kV & 400 kV D/C transmission lines and associated bays extension works at other existing substations in Madhya Pradesh.

Shilpa Medicare appointed Dr. Sridevi Khambhampaty, as Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Shilpa Biologicals

Tilaknagar Industries has announced a strategic investment of Rs 8 crore, through a mix of primary investment and secondary acquisition, to own a significant minority stake in Round the Cocktails.

Jerome Powell executed a smart strategy with an aggressive 50 basis point rate cut, accompanied by a hawkish outlook. He indicated that inflation is under control and there are no significant concerns in the economy. While logically this move is positive for the stock market, it seems the market had already factored in the rate cut, so we might not see a sustained upward trend. However, there is a potential risk of profit booking, particularly in the midcap and smallcap sectors. On the other hand, financial stocks appear attractive from a valuation perspective.

The Nifty’s structure remains bullish as long as it trades above the 25,300 level. A break below this point may trigger profit booking. On the upside, immediate target levels are 25,600 and 25,921.

#1 Falling oil prices expose company’s future project viability, find it hard to be bullish on oil

#2 Declining production rates, reduced guidance for KG field our key concerns

#3 Risk of unrelated capex is also one of the key concerns

#4 Capex intensity to increase

#5 Weaker performance of subsidiaries can impact dividend

#1 Renewable energy bids have enhanced with awarding at 37-39 GW in FY24 versus 8-9 GW YoY

#2 Company is moving towards its 60 GW 2032 RE target and has 24 GW pipeline in place

#3 RE capacity ramp-up, pilot initiatives on green hydrogen remain rerating drivers

#4 Medium-term double-digit EPS CAGR remain rerating driver

IRIS Business Services has announced a collaboration with the Government of Telangana to support growth of the MSME Ecosystem in the state.

The board has approved the issuance of up to 63,000 non-convertible debentures (NCDs) with a face value of Rs 1,00,000 each, amounting to Rs 630 crore, on a private placement basis.