Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities
Nifty spent the initial couple of hours of the session within a descending triangle pattern, before a breakdown triggered sustained selling pressure through the day. The Index formed a sizeable bearish candle on the daily chart and closed decisively below its key long-term support of the 200-day EMA. Momentum indicators continue to weaken, with the RSI slipping below the 30 mark, indicating oversold conditions, while a rising ADX highlights strengthening bearish trend intensity.
On the sectoral front, none of the sectors ended the day in green. On the other hand, Nifty Realty and Media emerged as the top two sectoral losers, both losing over 2.5% each. With regards to stocks, Dr Reddy & ONGC emerged as the top stock gainers amongst the Nifty pack while Adani Ports & Adani Enterprises emerged as the top two losers.
The Midcap Index largely mirrored the weakness seen in Nifty. The index closed below its 200-day EMA and also broke down from an upward-sloping trendline, drawn connecting the swing lows of 55,660 (29th August 2025) and 56,196 (30th September 2025). The breakdown suggests a loss of medium-term structure and increasing downside risk.
For the Smallcap Index, the earlier support of 16,782 (9th December) has now turned into a strong resistance zone. The index attempted to reclaim this level but failed to sustain above it, leading to renewed selling pressure. It eventually drifted lower to close below the 16,400 mark, keeping the near-term outlook cautious.
The market breadth deteriorated as the advance-decline ratio was heavily skewed in the favour of bears at day’s close. A total of 426 stocks out of the Nifty 500 universe ended in the red.
Nifty View
Going ahead, the key support for Nifty is placed in the 24,850–24,800 zone, which coincides with the upward-sloping trendline, drawn by connecting the swing lows of 24,338 (8th August) and 24,405 (29th August). A decisive breakdown below this zone could result in Nifty extending its weakness towards 24,500, followed by 24,300 in the near term. On the upside, the 25,250–25,300 zone is expected to act as a strong resistance area, limiting any pullback attempts.
Bank Nifty View
Bank Nifty traded in a narrow sideways range during the first couple of hours before succumbing to selling pressure and drifting lower on an intraday basis, eventually closing below the 58,500 level. On the daily chart, the index has slipped below its 50-day EMA, reflecting short-term trend weakness. Notably, the MACD has moved below the zero line for the first time since October 2025, reinforcing the emerging bearish bias.
For Bank Nifty, the immediate support is seen in the 58,100–58,000 zone, which aligns with the 100-day EMA, making it a crucial demand area to watch. A sustained breakdown below this zone could open the door for further downside towards 57,500, followed by 57,000 in the near term. On the upside, the 58,900–59,000 zone is likely to act as a strong resistance, keeping any recovery attempts capped.