Closing Bell: Nifty below 22,000, Sensex falls 906 points; all sectors in the red

Indian equity market ended on a weak note with Nifty below 22,000 amid selling across the sectors. The Sensex was down 906.07 points or 1.23 percent at 72,761.89, and the Nifty was down 338.00 points or 1.51 percent at 21,997.70.

We wrap up today's edition of the Moneycontrol live market blog, and will be back tomorrow morning with all the latest updates and alerts. Please visit https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/global-indices/ for all the global market action.

The Nifty has experienced a breakdown from a rising channel on the daily chart, signaling the conclusion of the previous uptrend and the potential beginning of a downtrend. Additionally, the index has descended below the recent consolidation phase on the daily timeframe, further emphasizing the increasing weakness.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) with a period of 14 is showing a bearish crossover and has dropped below the 50 mark.

In the short term, the index may continue to be susceptible to selling pressure with resistance anticipated around 22,250. On the downside, support levels are positioned at 21,800 and 21,700.

In contrast to the global uptrend, unfavourable risk-reward balance of mid and small-cap stocks, fuelled by prolonged premium valuations, has aggravated the downfall. Meanwhile, FMCG and contrarian plays like gold are offering some refuge. Other than the premium valuation no fundamental issue is noticed to drawback the long-term growth image of domestic midcaps.

Globally, the persistent US inflation rate has cast doubt on the Fed's ability to implement imminent rate cuts. While domestic inflation appears to be showing signs of easing. However, the easing trend in global commodity prices may prompt central banks to consider rate cuts in the latter half of 2024, which could be positive for equity.

Nifty finished the day close to 22,000 level which is around 2.3% below its all time high of 22,526. However, there seems to be a sense of distress and despodency among retail investors today. The dichotomy underlines the risk arising from the inclination to chase momentum and speculative stocks by many investors rather than invest sensibly in a well balanced portfolio. The tilt towards broader markets is also reflected in the recent mutual fund data showing inflows into small/microcap funds despite the 60-65% rally in CNX Smallcap index over the last one year.

At sharekhan, we strongly believe that a balanced portfolio with right mix of largecap, midcap and smallcap give comparable returns over the market cycle (bull & bear phase) with lower risk and more stability.

Accordingly, we have designed and manage the in-house PMS strategy. In terms of outlook, we believe that the Nifty could consolidate in a range whereas the volatility could rule in broader market which could wipe out the speculative forth and is healthy for a sustained rally going ahead.

Markets plunged lower and lost ~1.5%, after spending nearly a week in a narrow range. After the initial uptick, Nifty drifted gradually in the initial hours however the pace of decline intensified as the day progressed. Eventually, it settled closer to the day’s low at 21,997.70 levels. The selling pressure was widespread wherein metal, realty and energy lost over 5% each. The broader indices extended their prevailing bias and lost in the range of 4%-5%.

It is a double whammy for participants as Nifty has slipped below its immediate support of short-term moving average i.e. 20 DEMA and also breached the trendline support while midcap and smallcap space are already under tremendous pressure. We suggest maintaining negative bias in the index now and utilizing rebound to create short positions. At the same time, traders shouldn’t add to their loss-making positions and prefer index majors over others.

The Sensex and Nifty, key equity benchmarks, lost their earlier gains and fell over 1.5 percent on March 13 and closed below 22000 levels. Bank Nifty also traded negative for the day on its weekly expiry and closed below 47000 levels. The overall sentiment of the market is negative as we have seen sharp decline in the mid cap and small Cap index.

The market has traded negative with the Sensex losing 1.23 percent and closed at 72761.89 and Nifty was negative by 1.51 percent intraday and closed at 21997.70 levels, also Bank Nifty closed negative, down by 0.64 percent and settled at 46981.30.

All the sectors except NIFTY FMCG ended on the lower side. In Nifty stocks, ITC, ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the top gainers while Power Grid, Coal India and Adani Ports were the prime laggards.

INDIA VIX was positive by 5.79 percent intraday and settled at 14.43.

Index has a support around 21850-21800 zone. Coming to the OI Data, on the call side, the highest OI observed at 22000 strike prices while on the put side, the highest OI is at 21800 strike price. On the other hand, Bank Nifty has support at 46500-46300 while resistance is placed at 47500 and 47700 levels.

Markets erased early gains and slipped into the negative zone with frenzied selling towards the end dragging benchmark Nifty below the 22k mark. There have been concerns over the rising valuations of mid & small-rung stocks for a while, and with the regulator too highlighting these concerns, traders preferred to trim their exposure which resulted in a massive correction across the board. With inflation too not showing signs of moderation and growth decelerating, investors would rather wait before taking any major longish bets.

The bears maintained full control as the Bank Nifty index faced rejection at the 47500 mark, establishing it as a strong resistance zone. The index continues in a "sell on rise" mode until this resistance is overcome on a closing basis. Moreover, breaching its 20DMA suggests a follow-up selling pressure that could drive the index lower toward the 46000/45500 mark.

Recently, the Small and Midcap stocks faced a bumpy ride due to SEBI's vigorous crackdown on over-speculation, prioritizing the safeguarding of market participants' interests. Both indices slipped below their recent consolidation levels, sparking increased bearishness among market participants. Moreover, they've dipped below crucial short-term moving averages, further dimming the overall sentiment. While buying on substantial dips may offer opportunities, it's essential to be highly selective and focus on specific stocks within the broader market landscape.

Its seems like largecaps have joined the correction in smallcaps and midcaps which have been under severe selling pressure in the last few days. Nifty has a derivatives support at 22,000 so any sustenance below the same should be taken as an indication of caution for longs. The only silver lining today has been in select private banks and FMCG stocks which have held their ground amidst a market-wide selloff.

Indian rupee ended lower at 82.86 per dollar versus previous close of 82.77.

Indian equity market ended on a weak note with Nifty below 22,000 amid selling across the sectors.

At close, the Sensex was down 906.07 points or 1.23 percent at 72,761.89, and the Nifty was down 338.00 points or 1.51 percent at 21,997.70. About 290 shares advanced, 3202 shares declined, and 38 shares unchanged.

Biggest losers on the Nifty included Adani Enterprises, Coal India, Adani Ports, Power Grid Corporation and NTPC, while gainers were ITC, UltraTech Cement, HCL Technologies, Kotak Mahindra Bank and ICICI Bank.

All other sectoral indices ended in the red, with Realty, Media, PSU Bank, Telecom, Power, Oil & Gas, Metals down 4-6 percent.

BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices down 4-5 percent.

Oil rose on Wednesday, supported by signs of strong global demand including from top consumer the United States while hopes that the Federal Reserve might start cutting rates soon also buoyed sentiment despite somewhat sticky U.S. inflation.

In an indication of healthy demand, U.S. crude oil and fuel inventories fell last week, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures ahead of Wednesday's official U.S. inventory report.

Brent futures for May rose 83 cents, or 1%, to $82.75 a barrel by 0922 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for April gained 59 cents, or 0.8%, to $78.15.

-Sell call, target Rs 439 per share
-Impressive sales growth
-Overall profitability has been impacted by debt
-Profitability in Turkey and Bangladesh in line with expectations
-Highlighted upside for Domino’s in Turkey
-Currency risk prevails as cash flows in Turkish Lira and debt in Euros

Sensex Today | BSE Telecom index fell 5 percent dragged by Railtel Corporation of India, MTNL, ITI

Sensex Today | Market at 3 PM

The Sensex was down 937.94 points or 1.27 percent at 72,730.02, and the Nifty was down 348.90 points or 1.56 percent at 21,986.80. About 306 shares advanced, 3086 shares declined, and 40 shares unchanged.

-Reiterate cautious view
-Shriram Finance & Five-Star are our top picks
-Growth at risk; FY25 to be a reset year
-Cost of funds to remain elevated in FY25
-A Repo rate cut in H1FY25, would be positive for CoF/NIMs of NBFCs in H2FY25
-Cut growth/NIM estimates across coverage

Sensex Today | BSE Powe index shed 6 percent dragged by Adani Green Energy, NHPC, Adani Energy

Crude oil prices edged higher on Wednesday amid report of a larger draws of crude inventories last week in US. The API forecast gasoline inventory to have declined by another 3.8mb while distillate fell 1.2mb. OPEC stuck to its forecast of a strong oil demand growth globally of 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 and by 1.85 million bpd in 2025 and raised its economic growth forecast for this year, while EIA has reported global oil demand at 102.93mbpd, global oil supply at 101.82mbpd in February 2024, while global crude oil balance to remain in deficit of 0.3mbpd in 2024 and Q2-CY2024 would see deficit of 0.9mbpd due to OPEC+ extension of voluntary cuts, market outlook is giving better picture for crude demand in the second half of the year.

Outlook: The extension of OPEC+ voluntary cuts to see oil market in deficit of 0.3mbpd, which could see WTI prices trading in range of $78-$82, however demand side remain soft and short term could see prices falling back to support of $75/b. We expect prices to trade sideways and larger draw from EIA could see WTI testing resistance of $79.50/b.

Sensex Today | BSE Bank index down 0.5 percent dragged by Bank of Baroda, IDFC First Bank, IndusInd Bank

-Overweight call, target Rs 4,471 per share
-DMart Ready is not a quick delivery platform
-On pricing strategy and SKU availability DMart outpaces its peers
-DMart maintains its 'value focused' positioning
-SKU availability - DMart Ready leading versus peers and improving sequentially as well
-Comparable to grocery e-commerce players, company’s delivery not competing with quick commerce

Despite 100% OFS, Gopal received a healthy subscription demand from all sets of investors mainly on the back of its presence in the Indian fast-moving consumer goods sector and a prominent player with a diverse range of products including Namkeen and western snacks.

While considering subdued secondary market scenario and continued selling pressure seen in Mid & Small caps spaces, Gopal may be the victim and listing can be on a flat to muted note. The soft listing seems to be justified as the offer was 100% offer for sale and no funds would be coming into the company for growth.

We believe this listing gives an opportunity to investors to accumulate the growth story for the long term. Hence, considering all the parameters we recommend allotted investors to “HOLD” and while those investors who missed and wish to add can accumulate GOPAL at any dip post listing for Long term perspective only.

Sensex Today | BSE PSU Index shed 6.5 percent

-Upgrade to buy, target Rs 468 per share
-Correction offers an attractive multiple in a volatile market
-Cigarette volumes to be muted but premiumisation is underway
-FMCG gradually becoming a key driver, agri to stabilise with value-added products
-Quick commerce to accelerate portfolio premiumisation

This correction is an unwinding of excesses

Stress tests are not the cause of the market correction

Market is sitting on a lot of liquidity

SME stocks have low liquidity & governance standards are unpredictable

Believe a lot more correction could happen in microcaps & SME stocks

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Nifty Midcap 100 extends losses, sheds more than 2,000 points 

Stock Market LIVE Updates | All sectoral indices float in the red amid market selloff; Realty, Media, Energy, Metal indices slump 5%

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Nifty 50 slips below 22,500 amid selling in heavyweight names

Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.12% on Wednesday on a broad sell-off in domestic markets and selling pressure by foreign investors. A positive US Dollar and disappointing macroeconomic data from India also weighed on the Rupee. India’s CPI rose 5.09% y-o-y in February 2024 vs 5.1% in January 2024 but higher than the forecast of 5.01%. India’s IIP increased by 3.8% y-o-y in January 2024, at a slower pace vs 4.2% in December 2023. US Dollar gained on hotter-than-expected inflation in the US. US CPI rose 3.2% y-o-y in February 2024 vs 3.1% in January 2024 and forecast of 3.1%. Core CPI rose 3.8% y-o-y in February 2024 vs 3.8% in January 2024 and forecast of 3.7%.

We expect Rupee to trade with a negative bias on concerns over weakness in the domestic markets and extended selling by FIIs. Elevated crude oil prices may also weigh on Rupee. However, positive global markets may support Rupee. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 82.70 to Rs 83.10.

Britain's economy rebounded into slender growth in January after sliding into recession late last year, monthly official data showed Wednesday.

Gross domestic product grew 0.2 percent following a slight 0.1-percent decline in December, the Office for National Statistics said in a statement. First-quarter expansion would signal the end of a technical recession.

Gold prices steadied on Wednesday, after posting their biggest drop in a month in the previous session, as sticky U.S. inflation raised concerns that the Federal Reserve might delay going for an interest rate cut beyond June.

Spot gold edged 0.1% up to $2,158.70 per ounce, as of 0759 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.1% to $2,164.80.

Sensex Today | Market at 2 PM

The Sensex was down 708.78 points or 0.96 percent at 72,959.18, and the Nifty was down 275.40 points or 1.23 percent at 22,060.30. About 298 shares advanced, 3076 shares declined, and 36 shares unchanged.

Heritage Foods announced the inauguration of the new Ultra High Temperature (UHT) Milk plant with latest SIG packaging technologies, at Sampanbole Village, Shamirpet Mandal, Medchal Dist., Telangana.

NTC Industries informed that BSE imposed a SOP fine on the Company under Regulation 27(2), 31 and 34 of the Listing Regulations for certain non-compliance pursuant to the scrutiny of records in connection with grant of In-Principle Approval for Preferential Issue of equity shares.

The Company is in the process for making prompt and timely payment of above imposed fines.

Sensex Today | BSE Information Technology index down 1 percent dragged by Cressanda Solution, Quick Heal Technologies, KSolves India

-Buy call, target Rs 3,000 per share
-NSE announced a 1 percent cut to transaction charges on cash & derivatives products
-See the 1 percent cut as part of a periodic exercise by NSE, & smaller quantum this time
-Expect company's product pricing & plans for monetisation of new products to be unaffected
-Continue to expect >2.5x jump in earnings over FY24-26

Sensex Today | Nifty Media index shed 4.5 percent dragged by Dish TV, Jagran Prakashan, DB Corp

-Overweight call, target Rs 491 per share
-BAT launches block trade to sell 3.5 percent; supply overhang clears
-Expect ITC's stock outperformance to resume after stake sale
-Remain bullish on ITC, based on expectation of a moderate cigarette tax environment
-Remain bullish on continued scale-up of non-cigarette businesses & reasonable valuations

Kotak Mahindra Bank sold 34.7 lakh equity shares (equivalent to 2.03% of total paid-up equity) in KFin Technologies at an average price of Rs 600.28 per share. Kotak Bank held 9.8% stake in KFin as of December 2023.

Signature Global through its subsidiary has launched its new project Orchard Avenue-3, under the Affordable Housing Policy 2013, in Gurugram. The project, consists of total 235 units, with area spread over 1.66 acres.

Paisalo Digital recived in-principle approval from BSE Limited and National Stock Exchange of India Limited for issue and proposed allotment of 44,90,21,990 Equity shares of Re 1 each as bonus share in the ratio of 1 new equity share for every 1 existing equity share held in the Company.

Rail Vikas Nigam received Letter of Award (LoA) from M. P. Paschim Kshetra Vidyut Vitran Company Ltd. for “Supply, Installation, Testing and Commissioning of New 11 KV line for Bifurcation & Interconnection, Additional 11 KV Bay at 33 / 11 KV Sub-station, Augmentation of conductor of 33 KV & 11 KV Lines, Additional Distribution Transformer Substations with associate New 11 KV Lines, LT Line on AB cable, Conversion of bare LT line with AB Cable, Augmentation of LT AB Cable, Cover conductor for 11 KV Line Crossing Agriculture & Non Agriculture Feeder, 11 kv and 33 kv Bus Bar rennovation other associated work and Supporting works such as DPs, TPs, Crossing etc. in Jhabua O&M Division (LOT-12) under the Revamped Reforms-based and Results-linked, Distribution Sector Scheme.

Oil prices rose on Wednesday on expectations of strong global demand, including in the world's top consumer the United States, while somewhat sticky U.S. inflation did not significantly alter expectations that the Fed might start cutting rates soon.

Brent futures for May rose 28 cents, or 0.3%, to $82.20 a barrel by 0730 GMT. April U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude contract gained 28 cents, or 0.4%, to $77.84.

The US dollar held steady against a handful of rival currencies on Wednesday, as traders weighed what impact hotter-than-expected inflation data could have on chances of an interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve's June meeting.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of peer currencies, was little changed at 102.93.

Sensex Today | Nifty Midcap index turns negative for the year

Sensex Today | BSE Oil & Gas Index down 3 percent dragged by Adani Total Gas, Gail, HPCL

Macrotech Developers' promoter Sambhavnath Infrabuild and Farms sold 49,72,100 equity shares (equivalent to 0.5% of paid up equity) in the real estate developer at an average price of Rs 1,180.02 per share, valuing at Rs 586.72 crore.

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has asked Vedanta India, earlier known as Cairn India Ltd, to pay Cairn UK Holdings (CUHL) Rs 77.62 crore plus a simple interest of 18 percent per annum, for delayed payment of dividend.

The regulator also asked the company's chairman and managing director (CMD) Navin Agarwal, whole-time director Tarun Jain, whole-time director and chief executive officer (CEO) Thomas Albanese and whole-time director and chief financial officer (CFO) GR Arun Kumar to restrain from accessing the securities market for two months and non-executive director Priya Agarwal and independent directors K Venkataramanan, Lalita D Gupte, Aman Mehta, Ravi Kant and Edward T Story from accessing the market for one month. Vedanta said the order by SEBI will have no major financial impact.

Sensex Today | Nifty Bank index shed 0.5 percent dragged by PNB, Bank of Baroda, Bandhan Bank

-Upgrade to buy, target Rs 480 per share
-Company’s stock price has corrected from its peak amidst the news of ITC stake sale by BAT
-Stock price correction implies an attractive valuation for its cigarette business
-Stock price correction creates a buying opportunity even as taxation overhang persists

Sensex Today | Nifty smallcap index in the red for the year 

SEBI warning issued in connection with inspection carried for stock broking activities and there is no impact on financial, operation or other activities of the company, says ICICI Securities.

Equity F&O size seems large, but premium volume is less
Risky products need higher entry barriers for investors
Leverage must be used by investors who can afford risk

-Upgrade to buy, target Rs 480 per share
-Company’s stock price has corrected from its peak amidst the news of ITC stake sale by BAT
-Stock price correction implies an attractive valuation for its cigarette business
-Stock price correction creates a buying opportunity even as taxation overhang persists

Around 30% of bitcoins or cryptos are not accessible to their owners. One of the investors in crypto lost half a billion dollars because he couldn’t remember the password of his account. Luckily, there’s no such issue in the stock market: Neelesh Shah

Sensex Today | Nifty Realty index tumbled 5 percent dragged by Phoenix Mills, Sobha, Indiabulls Real

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Lemon Tree Hotels has opened its eighth hotel property, Keys Select by Lemon Tree Hotels, in Udaipur, Rajasthan.

Sensex Today | BSE Smallcap index shed 4 percent dragged by Cressanda Solution, Paisalo Digital. HLV

In equity, there’s a promise of profit like dividends but in crypto, there’s no promise, it is a threat.

Sensex Today | BSE Midcap index down 3 percent dragged by NHPC, SJVN, Vodafone Idea

Sensex Today | Market at 12 PM

The Sensex was down 504.27 points or 0.68 percent at 73,163.69, and the Nifty was down 210.70 points or 0.94 percent at 22,125.00. About 322 shares advanced, 2994 shares declined, and 45 shares unchanged.

-Upgrade to buy, target Rs 480 per share
-Company’s stock price has corrected from its peak amidst the news of ITC stake sale by BAT
-Stock price correction implies an attractive valuation for its cigarette business
-Stock price correction creates a buying opportunity even as taxation overhang persists

We need to educate investors that their savings needs to be invested properly. How do I convince people that trading for ordinary individuals is injurious. How do I convince people to not invest in NFTs when you don't know how to value it.