Closing Bell: Nifty below 25,100, Sensex down 153 pts; auto, metals drag, realty shine

Indian benchmark indices ended lower on October 15 with Nifty below 25,100. At close, the Sensex was down 152.93 points or 0.19 percent at 81,820.12, and the Nifty was down 70.70 points or 0.28 percent at 25,057.30.

We wrap up today's edition of the Moneycontrol live market blog, and will be back tomorrow morning with all the latest updates and alerts. Please visit https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/global-indices for all the global market action.

The domestic market experienced a downturn, influenced by a mixed global trend and partial profit-booking. Although declining crude prices are beneficial for the domestic economy, they signal weakening global demand. Additionally, India’s CPI surged driven by food prices, which will delay expected rate cuts. Furthermore, subdued corporate Q2 results are leading to a cautious stance.

The markets remained volatile and ended slightly lower, continuing their ongoing corrective phase. After an initial rise, Nifty experienced a sharp decline and traded within a narrow range until the close, weighed down by weakness in heavyweights such as Reliance, Bajaj Auto, and TCS. Sectoral performance was mixed, with realty and FMCG finishing in the green, while metals and auto were among the top losers. The broader indices once again outperformed, with the small-cap index gaining over a percent.

This market movement aligns with expectations, and we recommend maintaining a cautious stance until Nifty decisively surpasses the 25,300 level. However, select sectors and themes are still presenting buying opportunities, so traders should focus on stock selection and adopt a balanced approach.

Markets continue to remain volatile as key indices ended in red after Monday's upsurge, as fear of global economic uncertainty continues to weigh amid the ongoing West Asia conflict and the sharp drop in crude oil prices which is indicating demand slowdown. Another factor for the sluggishness could be investors' focus in the primary market as investors, including domestic and foreign, must be eyeing the ongoing Hyundai public offer.

The Nifty remained volatile throughout the day but sustained above the 21 EMA on the daily timeframe. A fall below this level could increase weakness, with the possibility of Nifty dropping below 24,900. If Nifty falls below 24,900, it may trigger a further correction towards 24,700. On the higher side, resistance is seen at 25,200.

The level of 25,200 acted well as a strong hurdle as a sharp reversal was seen from the said level followed by range bound activity and the Index finally ended the trade at 25,057.35 with a loss of 70.60 points. Among the sectors, Realty was the top gainer followed by Media, and on the flip side, Metal and Auto were the laggards.

Major action was observed in the broader markets as mid and smallcaps advanced by 0.21% & 1.11% respectively and outperformed the frontline index.

In the non-directional market, the index has formed a dark cloud cover candlestick pattern on the daily chart. Consolidation (25,000-25,200) breakout is a must for a clear picture.

Indian rupee ended flat at 84.03 per dollar on Tuesday versus Monday's close of 84.05.

Indian benchmark indices ended lower on October 15 with Nifty below 25,100.

At close, the Sensex was down 152.93 points or 0.19 percent at 81,820.12, and the Nifty was down 70.70 points or 0.28 percent at 25,057.30. About 1967 shares advanced, 1808 shares declined, and 106 shares unchanged.

Top Nifty gainers are ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, BPCL, Britannia Industries and Bharat Electronics, while losers are Bajaj Auto, Wipro, Bajaj Finance, Hindalco and HDFC Life.

Mixed trend seen on the sectoral front, with metal index down 1.5 percent, auto down nearly 1 percent, pharma shed 0.5 percent, while realty index rose 2 percent and media index was up 0.7 percent.

BSE midcap index was up 0.3 percent and smallcap index added 1 percent.

#1 Bank is aiming to lower loan-to-deposit ratio to 85-90 percent in 3 years, which it may achieve

#2 Lower LDR target can be achieved with deposit CAGR of 15 percent & slowing loan CAGR to 11 percent

#3 Branch ramp-up will help to gain share in deposits

#4 Loan growth will stay below/at sector level

#5 Scope to lower funding cost can lift NIM

#6 Priority sector lending compliance won't impact profit much

#7 Slower growth in unsecured loan can keep credit costs in check

#8 Trim estimate by 4-6 percent to factor slower loan growth

#1 Q2 below estimates in a challenging environment

#2 Reported net debt moderates to Rs 1.12 lakh crore; capex increased to Rs 28,800 crore

#3 Cut FY25-27 EBITDA by 5-6 percent

#4 Longer-term outlook remains constructive, underpinned by consumer-facing business

#5 Commencement of new energy operations by March 2025 will be a key trigger in coming months

The company posted 14.8 percent jumps in its net profit at Rs 433 crore, up from Rs 377 crore in the year-ago period.

#1 Q2 results were better-than-expected

#2 Constructive comments on improving demand result in EPS upgrades

#3 Consistent industry-leading revenue growth should keep premium multiples intact

#4 Improving order booking would be key for growth momentum to sustain in FY26

#5 Equal-weight on valuations

The Sensex was down 244.74 points or 0.30 percent at 81,728.31, and the Nifty was down 98.50 points or 0.39 percent at 25,029.50.

QIB – 0.01 times

NII - 0.11 times

Retail – 0.24 times

Employee Reserved - 0.68 times

Overall – 0.15 times

Amber Enterprises India's material subsidiary ILJIN Electronics (India) entered into Joint Venture agreement with Korea Circuit Co. Limited, a pioneer of printed circuit boards based out of Korea to form a Joint Venture Company in India to carry on the business of production, manufacturing, assembling and selling of HDI, Flex, and Semiconductor Substrates PCBs.

#1 Net profit up 47.7 percent at Rs 70.3 crore vs Rs 47.6 crore, QoQ

#2 Revenue up 15 percent at Rs 361 crore vs Rs 315 crore, QoQ

#3 EBITDA up 73 percent at Rs 83 crore vs Rs 48 crore, QoQ

#4 Margin at 23 percent vs 15.3 percent, QoQ

#1 Net Profit grows 17.6 percent YoY to Rs 82.6 crore

#2 Revenue rises 4.6 percent to Rs 559 crore

#3 EBITDA jumps 20.2 percent YoY to Rs 120.9 crore

#4 Margin comes in at 21.6 percent vs 25.9 percent (YoY)

Indian Rupee is near all-time lows on the strong Dollar and weak Asian currencies. Weak tone in the domestic equities and surge in inflation also weighed on the rupee. India’s CPI inflation rose to a nine-month high 5.49 percent YoY in September vs forecast of 5% and 3.65% in August on rising food prices. However, a decline in crude oil prices capped sharp gains. The dollar remained strong on sticky inflation and PPI data.

We expect Rupee to trade with a negative bias on FII outflows and risk aversion in global markets amid geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. Overall strength in the US Dollar may further put pressure on the Rupee. However, weak crude oil prices may support the Rupee at lower levels. Any intervention by the RBI may also support the local currency. Traders may take cues from Empire State Manufacturing Index data from the US. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 83.90 to Rs 84.30.

PVR Inox's Q2 performance is muted due to last year’s high base, but expects Q3 to improve with better occupancy, ticket prices, and spending per head, Ajay Bijli, Chairman of PVR Inox, told CNBC-TV18. He noted a strong lineup of films ahead, with Q3 likely to match the performance of Q2FY24. Re-released films have seen strong demand, prompting a price increase from Rs 115 to Rs 151.

PVR Inox plans to open 4-6 food courts with Devyani International this year and 8-10 next year. The company is also focusing on managing leverage and costs, while exploring asset monetization, with expressions of interest under review. Re-release ticket prices remain 30-35 percent lower than new releases.

#1 Net Profit rises 6.6 percent to Rs 34 Cr Vs Rs 32 Cr (YoY)

#2 Revenue jumps 12.3 percent to Rs 262.7 Cr Vs Rs 234 Cr (YoY)

#3 EBITDA  rise 15 percent to Rs 54.4 Cr Vs Rs 47.4 Cr (YoY)

#4 Margin comes in at 21 percent Vs 20.3 percent (YoY)

#Crude Oil demand growth sees a sharp slowdown vs 2 million bpd in FY23, says International Energy Agency (IEA)

#Cut 2024 oil demand growth estimate by 40,000 bpd

#1 Strong execution drives beat in Q2

#2 Company lifts bottom end of FY25 revenue growth guidance

#3 GenAI to drive demand in legacy tech modernisation, data & cognitive infrastructure

#4 Raise FY25-26 EPS by nearly 1-1.5 percent

Bigbloc Construction is venturing into the manufacturing of construction chemicals, including Block Jointing Mortar, Ready Mix Plaster, Tile Adhesives, and more.

Currently, the company already offers Block Jointing Mortar and Ready Mix Plaster through white labeling under brand names NXTFIX and NXTPLAST.

The manufacturing plant will be established at our Umargoan facility under the name Bigbloc Building Elements Private Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of Bigbloc Construction Limited.

The bank has increased its lending rate by 5 bps for overnight and one-month tenures, effective October 15.

The Board will meet on October 22 to consider the unaudited financial results for Q2 FY25 and fund-raising of up to Rs 4,000 crore via the issuance of non-convertible redeemable debentures (NCDs) on a private placement basis, in one or more tranches.

The company has entered into a purchase cum shareholders agreement with India SME Asset Reconstruction Company (ISARC) to buy 79.28 percent of the expanded share capital of ISARC.

The company will purchase 13 crore equity shares, representing 56.52 percent of the expanded share capital of ISARC for Rs 176.8 crore, and 5.235 crore shares, representing 22.76 percent of the expanded share capital of ISARC for Rs 85.3 crore.

HDFC Life Insurance Company, HDFC Asset Management Company, PVR Inox, Rallis India, DB Corp, Bank of Maharashtra, KEI Industries, Newgen Software Technologies, Coromandel Agro Products, Darshan Orna, DMR Hydroengineering, GM Polyplast, Gujarat Hotels, Lactose India, Morarka Finance, MRP Agro, Premium Capital Market, RO Jewels, SG Finserve, Sita Enterprises, Stylam Industries, Sybly Industries, Teamo Productions, Transchem, and Universal Arts will release their quarterly earnings scorecard on October 15.

QIB – 0.0 times

NII - 0.08 times

Retail – 0.19 times

Employee Reserved - 0.53 times

Overall – 0.11 times

#1 PV industry demand remained muted during Navratri

#2 PV industry demand saw 3 percent YoY growth while 2-wheeler grew by 12 percent, in-line with expectations

#3 High inventory and any significant pick-up in demand looking unlikely

#4 Expect weak Q3 dispatches

#5 Retain buy due to relatively undemanding valuations & product launches in 2025

#1 Profit jumps 39.1 percent to Rs 423.4 crore Vs Rs 304.5 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue zooms 44.55 percent to Rs 1,514.7 crore Vs Rs 1,047.9 crore, YoY

#1 Q2 EBITDA missed (weak domestic demand); profits beat estimate (lower depreciation)

#2 Capex intensity and net debt rose QoQ

#3 Cyclical challenges in retail (highest multiple vertical) should unwind in 2025

#4 Refining (highest FCF) should unwind in 2025

#5 Cyclical challenges in retail & refining key to reversing estimate downgrade cycle

HDFC Life Insurance Company, HDFC Asset Management Company, PVR Inox, Rallis India, DB Corp, Bank of Maharashtra, KEI Industries, Newgen Software Technologies, Coromandel Agro Products, Darshan Orna, DMR Hydroengineering, GM Polyplast, Gujarat Hotels, Lactose India, Morarka Finance, MRP Agro, Premium Capital Market, RO Jewels, SG Finserve, Sita Enterprises, Stylam Industries, Sybly Industries, Teamo Productions, Transchem, and Universal Arts will release their quarterly earnings scorecard on October 15.

#1 Q2 operating performance beat estimate, with both services & product business surprising positively

#2 Deal wins remain rangebound in Q2

#3 Management sees discretionary spending environment improving at margin

#4 With stock trading at 28x 1-year forward, see limited scope for re-rating

The company's subsidiary, Purvah Green Power, has signed a Share Purchase Agreement to acquire 100 percent of the share capital of Deshraj Solar Energy. Post-acquisition, Deshraj Solar Energy will become a step-down subsidiary of the company.

QIB – 0.0 times

NII – 0.07 times

Retail – 0.16 times

Employee Reserved – 0.42 times

Overall – 0.10 times

#1 Automotive Research Association of India (ARAI) on Oct 8 sought clarification if Ola S1 X 2KWh is being sold at Rs 49,999

#2 Have responded to ARAI that company has not changed Ola S1 X 2KWh price

#3 We are running a very limited time festive campaign for a brief period

#4 Under festive campaign, giving a general discount of Rs 5,000 to every customer and discount of Rs 25,000 to only few customers

The construction company has received a work order worth Rs 297.83 crore from Pune Municipal Corporation. The project involves the development of the Mula River from Wakad Bypass to Sangvi Bridge (stretch 1, 2, and 3).

The Sensex was down 136.22 points or 0.17 percent at 81,836.83, and the Nifty was down 48.70 points or 0.19 percent at 25,079.30.

Waree Energies Ltd's IPO opens for subscription on October 21 and closes on October 23, with anchor bidding starting October 18.

The allotment will be finalized on October 24, followed by refunds and share credits to demat accounts on October 25. The company's market debut is scheduled for October 28.

The IPO consists of a fresh issue of Rs 3600 crore and an offer for sale of upto 4.8 million shares by its existing shareholders and promoters. The OFS comprises upto 4.35 million shares by Waaree Sustainable Finance and upto 4.5 lakh shares by Chandurkar Investments Pvt Ltd.

Overall – 0.05 times

QIB – 0.0 times

NII - 0.04times

Retail – 0.09 times

Employee Reserved - 0.18 times

#1 Q2 saw a weak print with large miss in O2C & small misses in Jio & Retail on modest estimates

#2 B2B & store rationalisation in retail with margin focus will continue over H2 & growth recovery in FY26

#3 Jio's subscribers decline surprised negatively though we build in strong growth over FY25-27

#4 O2C profitability is subdued on weak demand

#5 Lower FY25/26 EBITDA 8 percent/6 percent but note sharp 14 percent correction recently makes valuation favourable

Several regions across India witnessed extreme rainfall in the month of September, disrupting agricultural supply chains, causing yet another month of significant increase in food prices, a 9.24% YoY rise last month, up from 5.66% in August 2024.

This surge pushed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to a nine-month high of 5.49%.

This sharp rise in inflation is also partly due to the unfavorable base effect, as noted in the RBI’s last policy meeting. With RBI adopting a data-driven approach to policy decisions, the timing and magnitude of the potential rate cut remains uncertain.

#1 Company reported a good quarter with beat on both topline & margin; deal wins were stable in Q2

#2 Slight upgrade to FY25 guidance, though H2 implied guidance does not allude to acceleration

#3 Valuations are now in line with TCS, which further restricts near-term re-rating