Closing Bell: Nifty above 24,200, Sensex gains 694 pts; metal, financials rally

Indian equity indices erased previous session losses and ended on strong note with Nifty above 24,200 on November 5. At close, the Sensex was up 694.39 points or 0.88 percent at 79,476.63, and the Nifty was up 218 points or 0.91 percent at 24,213.30.

We wrap up today's edition of the Moneycontrol live market blog, and will be back tomorrow morning with all the latest updates and alerts. Please visit https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/global-indices for all the global market action.

The domestic market experienced a sharp recovery, reclaiming most of the previous day’s losses amid uncertainty surrounding the likely downgrade in Q2 GDP forecast and closely contested U.S. presidential election.

However, the recent rebound in domestic manufacturing activity data, along with the expected revival of consumption in the H2, are likely to support market sentiment. Metals led the gains, driven by the anticipation of significant stimulus from China later this week.

Markets witnessed a remarkable turnaround towards the closing hours as value buying in banking stocks along with gains in metals and oil & gas stocks aided broad market recovery. Optimism across Asian and European indices ahead of the US election outcome boosted local traders' confidence, although medium term outlook still looks hazy due to skepticism over further rate cut by the Fed and subdued corporate earnings. Technically, the markets bounced back up after reaching a critical support level of 23,800, which was a key point for either holding or dropping further. This upward movement was mainly driven by news that Iran and Israel may be open to ceasefire talks, which, if confirmed, would be a huge positive for the market.

Additionally, there is speculation that Trump might win the upcoming U.S. election, and the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates by 0.25% for a second time. However, a true sign of strength would be seen if the market closes above the 24,380-24,400 range.

Today, the benchmark indices bounce back sharply, the Nifty ends 218 points higher while the Sensex was up by 694 points. Among Sectors, almost all the major sectoral indices bounce back sharply but Metal index outperformed, rallied over 1.35 percent.

Technically, after intraday dip, one more time market took the support near 23850/78300 and reversed. Post reversal it not only cleared 24000/78800 resistance mark but it succeeds to close above the same which is largely positive. In addition, it also formed bullish candle on daily charts, which supports further uptrend from the current levels.

For the traders now, 24000/78800 would act as a sacrosanct support level. Above the same, the pullback formation is likely to continue. On the higher side, it could move up till 24400-24500/80000-80300. On the flip side, below 24000/78800 traders may prefer to exit out from the trading long positions.

Nifty has found support around a historical swing low for the second consecutive day. On the technical front, a Piercing Line candlestick pattern has appeared on the daily chart, suggesting a potential bullish reversal. Additionally, a positive divergence on the daily RSI further strengthens the case for an upward move.

Looking ahead, a buy-on-dips strategy could benefit traders as long as Nifty stays above 24,000. On the higher side, Nifty may advance toward the 24,750-24,800 range. However, the buy-on-dips strategy has to be reviewed once Nifty falls back below 24000.

Volatility is the word for today's trade. Bears dominated the first half of trading session by dragging the Index lower; however, it was the Banking counters that led to a sharp upmove and pushed the Index higher from its previous session's low, resulting in double bottom pattern.

The Metal stocks also joined the party and pushed the Index further higher to end the session at 24,213.30 with gains of 217.95 points. Mid and Smallcaps also advanced but underperformed the Frontline Index.

On the daily chart, Nifty50 has formed a Piercing Candlestick pattern coupled with a positive divergence in the RSI and 150DMA support. As indicated yesterday also, level of 23,800 will serve as immediate support while on the higher side, and the resistance level is shifted higher to 24,370.

Indian rupee ended flat at 84.10 per dollar on Tuesday versus Monday's close of 84.11.

Indian equity indices erased previous session losses and ended on strong note on November 5 with Nifty around 24,200.

At close, the Sensex was up 694.39 points or 0.88 percent at 79,476.63, and the Nifty was up 197.20 points or 0.82 percent at 24,192.50. About 2337 shares advanced, 1448 shares declined, and 102 shares unchanged.

Except FMCG and Media, all other sectoral indices ended in the green with bank, metal, auto and oil & gas up 1-2 percent.

BSE Midcap and smallcap index added 0.4 percent each.

Top gainers on the Nifty are JSW Steel, Tata Steel, Hindalco Industries, Bajaj Auto, Axis Bank, while losers are Coal India, Trent, Adani Ports, Asian Paints and ITC.

Swiggy, a prominent player in the e-commerce and food delivery space, opens its IPO for public subscription on November 6. While the company has demonstrated steady top-line growth, it remains loss-making with a negative P/E ratio, raising potential concerns for conservative investors. However, the IPO valuation appears reasonable when evaluated against other metrics, such as price-to-sales.

Given the current market conditions, both the subscription and listing performance could face added pressure. Investors should consider Swiggy’s long-term growth potential alongside its current profitability challenges, making this IPO more aligned with those comfortable with high-risk exposure and a longer investment horizon.

#1 Encouraged by strong 9 percent YoY volume growth delivered by IGL in Q2

#2 Strong volume growth marks a sharp rebound from the 4 percent growth levels in recent quarters

#3 There exists a strong foundation for IGL’s volumes to grow at a 7-8 percent CAGR over 3 years

#4 Volumes to grow with risks to upside

#5 Open 90-day positive catalyst watch

#1 Apollo is building a 500-bed hospitals In Worli, Mumbai that is an attractive micro market

#2 Metro share in overall mix to rise from 57 percent in FY24 to 60 percent in FY29

#3 Company has 7,942-owned beds & will add 2,877 beds over next 3-4 years, i.e. 8 percent FY25-29 growth

Indian Rupee touched fresh record lows amid uncertainty over US elections and FII outflows. Elevated crude oil prices also weighed on the Rupee. However, weak US Dollar and positive domestic markets prevented a sharp fall in the Rupee. US dollar eased ahead of US election results.

We expect Rupee to trade with a negative bias on FII outflows and overall strength in the US Dollar. Elevated crude oil prices may also mount pressure on the Rupee. However, a recovery in the domestic markets and any intervention by the RBI may support the Rupee at lower levels. We could see some volatility ahead of the US Presidential election results. Traders may take cues from trade balance and ISM services PMI from the US today and FOMC meeting outcome later this week. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 83.95 to Rs 84.30.

Almost 50% valuation compared to Zomato gives some comfort although Swiggy should not be considered as an arbitrage in valuation. If Swiggy’s EBITDA catches up to 3-4% in the food delivery business, which is currently at 1% and Average Order Value (AOV) improves to Rs 550-600 levels in quick commerce with higher non-grocery share, we can see bridging in the valuation gap. Although, this should not be expected in near term.

-330

The Sensex was up 667.70 points or 0.85 percent at 79,449.94, and the Nifty was up 205 points or 0.85 percent at 24,200.30.

#1 Q2 PAT missed on higher interest cost & marginal EBITDA miss

#2 YTD order inflows at Rs 135 bn, up 50 percent YoY

#3 Order backlog at Rs 341 billion, translated into 1.6x TTM sales

#4 Remain positive on company’s growth

#5 Believe company should be a major beneficiary of T&D capex, both globally & domestic

Spot gold, after closing with a gain of $1 at $2,738 yesterday, is currently trading slightly higher at as the US Dollar Index is has eased slightly on flattish US yields. US durable goods orders (September final) were better than expected as headline data came in at -0.70% (estimate -0.80%) and ex transport at 0.50% beat the forecast of 0.40%.

Today’s US data on tap include the crucial ISM services (October). Gold is expected to range trade between $2,700 and $2,760 with focus on the US presidential election results. The metal may briefly correct further lower in case a clear winner emerges.

Shares of Greenply Industries zoomed around 10 percent on November 5, the most in 8 months, amid a sharp surge in volumes.

So far in the day, a total of 14 lakh shares of the company changed hands on BSE and NSE combined, compared to the one-month average trading volume of 3 lakh equity shares. The stock is currently trading higher than its 5-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, but lower than its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a mixed trend in the short term.

Recently, Greenply Industries announced its Q2FY25 results, revealing a robust performance with a 5.39 percent on-year increase in revenue and a notable 26.77 percent YoY surge in net profit.

#1 Net Profit up 23% at Rs 182  crore vs Rs 148 crore (YoY)

#2 Revenue up 26.3% at Rs 421 crore vs Rs 334 crore (YoY)

Shares of Hatsun Agro Products staged a strong rebound and surged over 12 percent on November 5, a day after the stock took a 4 percent plunge on the back of its weak quarterly show.

At 1.54 pm, shares of Hatsun Agro Products were trading at Rs 1,156.40 on the NSE. The upswing was also aided by a sharp uptick in trading volumes in the counter. As much as eight lakh shares changed hands on the exchanges so far, significantly higher than the one-month daily traded average of 60,000 shares. With this upmove, the stock is also up over 12 percent for the week.

Hatsun Agro’s Q2 earnings report showcased a 17 percent year-on-year decline in net profit, falling to Rs 64.32 crore from Rs 77.57 crore in the same period last year. Meanwhile, revenue from operations in Q2FY25 grew over 8 percent year-on-year to Rs 2,072.1 crore compared to Rs 1,905.4 crore in Q2FY24.

-330

RVNL- SCPL (JV) emerges as the lowest bidder (L1) from Eastern Railway for “Earthwork in cutting and filling, blanketing, construction of minor bridges, major bridges, RUB, ROB, retaining wall, level crossing, side drain, catch water drain, P.way work and other ancillary works from IR Ch. 205.000 km to 260.2 Km between Kalipahari (inc.) to Pradhankhuta (exc.) in connection with construction of multi tracking Railway BG line.

#1 Q2 revenue rose 4 percent YoY & came in 4 percent below estimate

#2 EBITDA margin came in below expectations of 12.4 percent

#3 Maintain view that industry demand will grow by 12 percent in first half of FY25-26

#1 Q2 sales/EBITDA growth below estimate

#2 Weaker than expected pick-up in US as well as RoW markets

#3 Margin also came in below estimate on account of lower GMs & ops deleverage

#4 Management lowered its FY25 growth guidance to low double digits (from mid-teens)

#5 Sees delays in pick-up in US & RoW base businesses

#6 Incremental growth for company's base business in US is likely to come at cost of margin

Dr Reddy's Laboratories, Titan Company, GAIL India, PB Fintech, Oil India, Berger Paints, eClerx Services, Manappuram Finance, Mankind Pharma, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, Aptus Value Housing Finance, CCL Products, Fortis Malar Hospitals, JK Tyre, Max Healthcare Institute, Raymond Lifestyle, SJVN, Sundram Fasteners, Timken India, Triveni Engineering, Waaree Renewable Technologies, and Wonderla Holidays will release September quarter earnings on November 5.

#1 Q2 came in weaker than our estimate, while Amara Raja's came in largely in-line

#2 Expect Exide's revenue growth to catch up in H2FY25

#3 Exide seems to have benefits of scale & pace in new energy business, keeping us overweight

#1 Loss stands at Rs 23.4 crore Vs profit of Rs 0.06 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue declines 4.8 percent to Rs 633.6 crore Vs Rs 665.6 crore, YoY

Asian equities climbed, boosted by a slew of positive headlines from China, while the dollar was steady as the clock ticked down to a tight US election.