Closing Bell: Nifty tops 22,200 for the first time, Sensex up 349; realty, banks outshine

Indian benchmark indices extended the gains on the sixth consecutive session on February 20 with Nifty surpassing 22,200 for the first time. At close, the Sensex was up 349.24 points or 0.48 percent at 73,057.40, and the Nifty was up 74.70 points or 0.34 percent at 22,197.

We wrap up today's edition of the Moneycontrol live market blog, and will be back tomorrow morning with all the latest updates and alerts. Please visit https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/global-indices/ for all the global market action.

Impressive buying in banking stocks propelled benchmark Nifty to touch a new high and close above the 22k mark, as the recent sell-off in the financial space had made several banking counters attractive for investors to take renewed exposure. Despite the ongoing conflict in the Red Sea and the Middle-East, stable oil prices have helped improve market sentiment. However, the focus will be on Wednesday's minutes of the US Fed's last meeting on policy rates, which will provide more clarity on interest rate direction in the near term.

The Nifty opened on a weak note however as the day progressed the Nifty witnessed sustained buying interest which helped it to close at a New All time high of 22196.95 up ~75 points.

On the daily charts we can observe that the Nifty has decisively closed above the previous resistance zone of 22100 – 22150 which indicates that the next leg of upmove has resumed. On the upside we expect Nifty to target levels of 22500, which is the upper end of the rising channel. Bollinger bands have begun to expand, and prices are trading along the upper band indicating that the positive price action is likely to continue.

The hourly momentum indicator still has a negative crossover, which is a point of worry, however we shall assign more weightage to the price action and continue to ride the upmove. In terms of levels, 22460 – 22500 is the immediate hurdle zone while 22000 – 21950 shall act as a crucial support zone.

Bank Nifty was clearly the leader today with major contributions coming in from the heavyweight HDFC Bank. We expect the bank Nifty to continue with the momentum and target levels of 48600.

Amidst market volatility, the domestic market is once again poised to approach record highs. The latest upward trajectory is bolstered by gains in the banking sector, with private banks witnessing a rebound from a recent sharp correction. However, the decline in mid & small caps suggests that investors are continuing to exercise caution due to higher valuations.

The forthcoming release of the US Fed minutes this week holds significance, particularly in light of recent sticky inflation data, which raises uncertainty regarding the timing of the Federal Reserve's initiation of its easing cycle.

After spending most of the time in a range, a late surge in the heavyweights pushed the Index higher to end the session at yet another record level of 22,196.95 with gains of 74.70 points. Among the sectors, Media was the best performer while a round of correction was observed in the IT and Auto segments. The index rally was mainly driven by the heavyweight private banks, especially HDFC and Axis Bank. With a bullish candle, the Index has given a breakout from an Ascending Triangle formation, and as per the pattern, the target is 23,120.

In today's trade, BankNifty has not only breached its 50DMA hurdle but also convincingly cleared the resistance of 46,580, and now, the next resistance is placed at 47,730 while the downside is protected at 46,340.

The rupee strengthened by 0.06rs, reaching 82.95, as the dollar index weakened from 104.25$ to 104.06$, pushing the rupee above 83.00. Additionally, a minor correction in crude prices after a strong rally provided support to the rupee.

The financial sector's uptrend, evidenced by a 1.25% gain in the Bank Nifty index, attracted fund inflows, further bolstering the rupee. Rupee's long consolidation persists within the range of 82.80-83.15.

The Nifty continues its upward momentum following a consolidation breakout on the daily chart. The trend remains robust as it has sustained itself both above the psychological level of 22000 and the 21EMA on the daily timeframe. On the higher end, it may move towards 22400/22600 once the index decisively surpasses the 22200 mark. Support on the lower end is identified at 22000.

The BankNifty bulls maintained their dominance, closing above the 47000 level, signaling a strong buy mode. Immediate support is now established at 46700, marked by fresh put writing. The index is anticipated to reach the short-term target of 48000, with any dip viewed as a buying opportunity.

Indian rupee ended marginally higher at 82.97 per dollar on Tuesday versus Friday's close of 83.01.

: Indian benchmark indices extended the gains on the sixth consecutive session on February 20 with Nifty surpassing 22,200 for the first time.

At close, the Sensex was up 349.24 points or 0.48 percent at 73,057.40, and the Nifty was up 74.70 points or 0.34 percent at 22,197.00. About 1661 shares advanced, 1667 shares declined, and 65 shares unchanged.

Biggest gainers included Power Grid Corporation, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, NTPC and Kotak Mahindra Bank, while losers were Hero MotoCorp, Coal India, Bajaj Auto, Eicher Motors and TCS.

On the sectoral front, Bank, media, power and realty up 0.8-2 percent each, while auto, IT, metal down nearly a percent each.

BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices ended with marginal losses.

-Outperform call, target raised to Rs 480 per share
-Drop in e-auction premium in Q4, could be partly offset by higher volumes
-Company revised down volume guidance for FY24 by 1 percent
-FY25 guidance is for 9 percent YoY growth
-Import substitution could keep domestic coal balance intact
-At 5x CL26 EV/EBITDA (below historical average), see valuations as fair
-Company’s dividend yield remains elevated at 6-7 percent

The Board of Directors of Trident appointed Mr. Samir Joshipura as the Chief Executive Officer & Key Managerial Personnel (CEO & KMP) of the Company, pursuant to Section 203 of the Companies Act, 2013, effective February 20, 2024.

-Buy call, target Rs 3,140 per share
-5-year low diesel inventories & red sea disturbances have firmed up diesel spreads by 40 percent since December
-Raised company’s FY24/25E EBITDA +2 percent/1 percent on near-term O2C strength
-Peak capex in Jio and Retail are behind

Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.07% on Tuesday on positive domestic markets and Dollar inflows. However, a positive tone in the US Dollar and rising crude oil prices capped sharp gains. US Dollar rose on rising odds of a no-rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in the March and May 2024 FOMC meeting. Strong PPI data on Friday further bolstered the no rate-cut notion.

We expect the Rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on strong US dollars and risk aversion in global markets. Rising crude oil prices amid renewed geopolitical tension in the Middle East and the Red Sea. However, foreign inflows and positive domestic markets may support the Rupee at lower levels. Investors may watch out for FOMC minutes to be released on Wednesday. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 82.75 to Rs 83.20.

Raymond Realty, the real estate arm of Raymond Group today announced the launch of its first project outside Thane ‘The Address by GS, Bandra’. This strategic move followed the company’s plan for expansion beyond Thane through joint development agreements (JDAs) in MMR region.

TVS Supply Chain Solutions today announced that their contract with Rolls-Royce has been extended for five years until 2029. The partnership extension is for the state-of-the-art Parts Distribution Centre (PDC) in Singapore serving the Asia Pacific markets for Rolls-Royce’s Power Systems business unit.

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries has entered into an agreement with Surgimatix, Inc., pursuant to which Sun Pharma has agreed to acquire 16.33 % shares of Surgimatix, Inc.

-Downgrade to underperform from neutral, target Rs 250 per share
-We are at 17-19 percent below consensus for FY25-26
-Earnings downgrades will continue due to lack of new launches in Biosimilars segment
-Weak FY25 outlook for Syngene due to lack of major manufacturing contract wins
-Weak FCF generation, high leverage will hurt company unless it looks at fund raise options
-Company can look at fund raise options like stake sale in Biosimilars and Syngene

Federal Bank's stock rose around 10% post-results correction due to news about KVS Manian, from Kotak Mahindra Bank, being considered for the MD & CEO position at FB. However, KMB's elevation of Mr. Manian as JMD, subject to RBI approval, possibly diminishes hopes for him as a candidate at FB. Any stock surge linked to this news is likely to recede, analysts said.

Gold prices edged up on Tuesday despite a stronger dollar as investors awaited the minutes of the last U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting for more clues on the timing of interest rate cuts.

Spot gold was up 0.2% at $2,021.00 per ounce as of 0815 GMT. Most of the U.S. markets were closed on Monday for the President's Day holiday.

U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% at $2,029.90 per ounce.

Sensex Today | BSE Midcap index down 0.4 percent dragged by Biocon, Federal Bank, New India Assurance Company

-Upgrade to buy, target Rs 1,100 per share
-Q3 was a disrupted quarter on the back of restructuring of distribution model
-Company had a restructuring in distribution model for its India formulations business
-Recovery in India sales, with lower R&D spend bodes well for margin expansion
-Start of supplies from monroe plant bode well for margin expansion
-Glenmark life sciences deal closure is a near-term catalyst

Sensex Today | Nifty Bank index up nearly 1 percent led by HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Kotak Mahndra Bank

Oil prices edged up on Tuesday, hovering close to three-week highs on heightened Middle East tensions and recovering China demand.

Brent futures ticked up 3 cents to $83.59 a barrel.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for April delivery inched up 2 cents to $78.48 a barrel. The March WTI contract rose 24 cents to $79.43 a barrel as traders prepared for that contract to expire during the day. There was no settlement for WTI on Monday due to a U.S. public holiday.

Foreign investor Morgan Stanley Asia Singapore Pte bought 8,65,500 equity shares of Sula Vineyards at an average price of Rs 575 per share. However, foreign company Mousserena LP sold 29 lakh equity shares (3.4% of equity) in the company at an average price of Rs 575.47 per share, and Verlinvest Asia Pte Ltd exited the company by selling entire shareholding of 70,42,275 equity shares at an average price of Rs 576.78 per share.

Vipul Organics announced the receipt of Environmental Clearance for Proposed Expansion of Synthetic Organic Pigments and Dyestuffs, Pigment Dispersion, Naphthols, Fast Salts and Vat Dyes Manufacturing at their existing Ambernath facility.

Broking firm expect a 16% EPS CAGR over FY24e-26e, driven by a 11% revenue CAGR and an 80bp EBITDA-margin expansion.

FY24e EPS is higher due to better margins, while FY25e EPS is lower due to trimming of revenue.

Retain a Buy at a higher 12-mth Target Price of Rs 1,200, 15x FY26e EPS (earlier Rs1,050, 15x FY25e EPS).

Key risks: Less-than-expected growth in underlying segments, delay in order executions, adverse commodity/forex movements.

Foreign portfolio investor TA FII Investors has offloaded 13.45 lakh equity shares in Shilpa Medicare (equivalent to 1.54% of paid-up equity, at an average price of Rs 407.05 per share.

Sensex Today | BSE FMCG index down 0.3 percent dragged by S H Kelkar, Manorama Industries, Patanjali Foods

Gold prices were steady on Tuesday despite a stronger dollar and elevated Treasury yields, as investors awaited the minutes of the last U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting for more clues on the timing of interest rate cuts.

Spot gold was flat at $2,018.83 per ounce as of 0558 GMT. Most of the U.S. markets were closed on Monday for the President's Day holiday.

U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% at $2,029.90 per ounce.

The dollar rose broadly on Tuesday and firmed above 150 yen on mounting expectations of higher-for-longer U.S. rates, contrasting with a recession in Japan and market doubts about a near-term exit from the country's ultra-easy policy.

The offshore yuan stood at 7.2089 per dollar.

EaseMyTrip along with Jeewani Group, has solidified a strategic partnership with Radisson Hotel Group to embark on the development of a 150-room Radisson Blu Hotel in Ayodhya City. A greenfield project, Radisson Blu Hotel, Ayodhya is expected to open in 2027.

Elara Capital retained Accumulate rating on Zomato with a SOTP-based Target Price of Rs 165.

It values the food delivery business at 50x one-year forward EV/EBITDA, Blinkit at 6x one-year forward EV/sales and 2.5x to Hyperpure.

Sensex Today | Market at 1 PM

The Sensex was up 226.46 points or 0.31 percent at 72,934.62, and the Nifty was up 34.30 points or 0.16 percent at 22,156.60. About 1768 shares advanced, 1499 shares declined, and 69 shares unchanged.

Promoter Malavika Siddhartha Hegde sold 40 lakh equity shares (equivalent to 1.89% of paid up equity) in Coffee Day Enterprises at an average price of Rs 64.91 per share.

Piramal Enterprises said the board of directors will be meeting on February 22 to consider the issue of non-convertible debentures up to Rs 100 crore along with the green shoe option to retain oversubscription up to Rs 500 crore, on a private placement basis.

Sensex Today | BSE Power index up 1 percent supported by Power Grid Corporation, BHEL, NTPC

Sensex Today | BSE Oil & Gas index down 0.5 percent dragged by HPCL, BPCL, IOC

-Buy call, target Rs 2,050 per share
-Building a granular sustainable franchise and balanced profitable growth will be key focus
-In tight liquidity, company will not chase high-cost deposits flows
-Company aims to maintain healthy incremental LDR and LCR
-Any constraints in deposits growth may moderate loan growth
-Company will raise threshold lending rates to pass on increased funding cost
-Company will maintain NIM/RoA in guided band
-With latest developments at Paytm, company will be more sanguine on pockets of opportunities
-Company will leverage on the group’s distribution strength
-Share in third party product distribution should rise
-HDB financial services on track with respect to timelines set for listing

Godrej Consumer Products along with one of its wholly owned subsidiary has entered into an agreement for divesting its entire stake in wholly owned subsidiary Godrej East Africa Holdings, Mauritius, for $3.5 million. After the completion of the deal, Godrej East Africa Holdings alongwith its step down subsidiaries DGH Tanzania, Mauritius, Charm Industries, Kenya and Sigma Hair Industries, Tanzania will cease to be subsidiaries of the company.

-Company holds more than 8.19% equity in Exicom tele-Systems
-EV charger manufacturing co Exicom to launch its IPO next week
-IPO comprises an OFS of 74 lakh share, a fresh issue of Rs 400 crore

Sensex Today | BSE Bank index up 1 percent led by HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank

-Buy call, target raised to Rs 7,650 per share
-There was a proposal recently to increase company's ESOP pool by 1.9 m
-Proposal to increase ESOP could be due to near exhaustion of its existing pool
-Proposal to increase ESOP could be as ESOPs are imp part of compensation for mid-sized IT firms
-50 percent of new ESOPs may be granted in year 1, 5-year vesting period & 40 percent lapse rate
-Company’s ESOP costs may rise to 1.6 percent of sales in FY25
-ESOP costs rising drives 4 percent cut to our earnings in FY25, but FY26 estimate are broadly the same

Investors chasing listing-day gains made a killing on Vibhor Steel Tubes IPO. The listing of this stock also outperformed the much hyped IPO- Tata Technologies.

The stock lists at 181% premium to the issue price-clearly the best listing for 2024.

Second best listing of 2024- BLS E-Services – listed at 129% premium over the issue price.

It remains to be highlighted that Tata Technologies debuted on the Street with the best gains in two years. It opened with a 140% gain at Rs 1199.95/ share.

The company’s FY23 valuation at 10.2 times was way lower than some of its peers like APL Apollo Tubes, Hi- Tech Pipes, Goodluck India

ABB India, Ace Men Engg Works, Ansal Properties & Infrastructure, Elantas Beck India, Gammon India, and IM+ Capitals.

The Securities Committee of Himatsingka Seide will be meeting on February 22 to consider the opening of issue of non-convertible debentures (NCDs) worth Rs 97 crore to International Finance Corporation.

Sensex Today | BSE Metal index down 1 percent dragged by Coal India, APL Apollo, SAIL

Shares of Kotak Mahindra Bank gained 1.7 percent to Rs 1,762 per share on February 20 after the private sector lender announced key changes to its senior management team. So far this year, the stock of Kotak Mahindra Bank has declined 3 percent, as against 0.8 percent rise in the benchmark Sensex. READ MORE

Sensex Today | BSE Information Technology index down 1 percent dragged by Birlasoft, Coforge, 63 Moons Technologies

Paisalo Digital said the Board of Directors will be meeting on February 22 to consider the proposal of raising of funds through issuance of equity shares in a private placement, or qualified institutions placement.

Ramkrishna Forgings has secured a contract worth USD 220 million. This contract spans over a decade and marks the company's foray into a new vertical within the forging sector, focusing on supplying Tier 1 customers in the Light Vehicle segment across North America.

Shares of Godrej Consumer Products traded higher on February 20 morning following news that it will divest in Godrej East Africa Holdings, Mauritius, for $3.5 million.

After the completion of the deal, Godrej East Africa Holdings, along with its step-down subsidiaries DGH Tanzania, Mauritius, Charm Industries Kenya, and Sigma Hair Industries Tanzania, will cease to be subsidiaries of the company.

Domestic broking firm Emkay Global maintained its positive stance on the FMCG major as the current divestment is in-line with the management strategy of restructuring East Africa operations, where it has relatively low profitability. The brokerage had a share price target of Rs 1,325 per share. Read More

Vibhor Steel's public issue had received overwhelming response from the investors. The company's key strength lies in its long-standing association with Jindal Pipes under the brand of Jindal Star. Along with this, the capacity expansion gives a long term visibility to the company, with strategic plants located near the ports helping it to focus more on exports business in future.

Post listing, Vibhor would be matched with its listed peers on valuation front, giving the company limited upside from here. Hence, considering strong listing gains of around 180%, we recommend allotted investors to book partial profits around Rs 425-450 levels against the issue price of Rs 151.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi laid the foundation stone for four projects worth Rs 25,000 crore being developed by Torrent Power in Uttar Pradesh. These projects will be developed in the areas of pumped storage hydro, green hydrogen and solar energy generation in Uttar Pradesh.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi laid the foundation stone for four projects worth Rs 25,000 crore being developed by Torrent Power in Uttar Pradesh. These projects will be developed in the areas of pumped storage hydro, green hydrogen and solar energy generation in Uttar Pradesh.

Sensex Today | Nifty PSU Bank index up 0.3 percent supported by Union Bank of India, PNB, Bank of India

Sensex Today | Nifty Bank index up 0.5 percent led by HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, AU Small Finance Bank

DroneAcharya Aerial Innovations has signed a term sheet to acquire a 76% stake in Aerophile Academy Private Limited, a prominent DGCAcertified drone pilot training center in South India. This strategic move marks DroneAcharya's foray into South India's drone pilot training landscape, further solidifying its position as India's leading Drone Pilot Training Organization.

JSW Infrastructure has received Letter of Intent from Jawaharlal Nehru Port Authority for "Equipping, Operation, Maintenance and Transfer of Additional Liquid Cargo Berths LB3 and LB4 at Jawaharlal Nehru (JN) Port through Public Private Partnership (PPP) Mode".

For the day, we expect Nifty to maintain a positive bias, providing an opportunity for fresh long positions around the 22000 level. The short-term outlook for Nifty remains optimistic. However, further consolidation or a minor dip in the upcoming sessions cannot be ruled out. Today, the immediate support level for Nifty is positioned at 21,950 levels.

Similarly, Bank Nifty has sustained its bullish momentum and closed near a one-month high. According to option data analysis, the 46000 Put strike holds significant open interest, likely serving as immediate support. Conversely, the 47000 level is expected to present an immediate hurdle.

-Neutral call, target Rs 430 per share
-Management maintaining FY24 volume target
-e-auction volumes increase should largely offset premium decline
-Changes in over burden removal (OBR) accounting
-FY24/25 capex at USD 2- 2.1 billion
-Stock has more than doubled since last year on strong volumes & power demand
-Think company is at an 8x Sep’25 FY25 P/E
-Company is at mid-point of trading range for regional/Australian players at 5-10x, limiting upside

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation' subsidiary Imperial Energy is incorporated in Cyprus and has structure of step-down subsidiaries based in Cyprus and Russia. Imperial Energy has received approval from its shareholders for merger of five companies namely Imperial Energy Cyprus (IECL), Imperial Energy Nord (IENL), Redcliffe Holdings (RHL), Biancus Holding (BHL) and San Agio Investment (SAIL) with itself,subject to approval of competent court of Cyprus. Imperial Energy has total seven direct subsidiaries including the remaining two - Imperal Frac Servics Cyprus (IFSCL) and Imperial Energy Tomsk (IETL). Post-merger, the number of step-down subsidiaries of ONGC in Cyprus will be reduced to 3 companies.

Sensex Today | Nifty Pharma index down 0.8 percent dragged by Cipla, Alkem Laboratories, Lupin

Shares of Tourism Finance Corp of India Ltd opened 5 percent higher after four block deals involving 11.8 million shares of the company, Bloomberg reported.

The deal was closed at a valuation of Rs 248 crore, setting a tag of Rs 210 on each share. Moneycontrol could not immediately verify the details of the buyers and sellers.

The stock hit 5 percent upper circuit for four out of five straight sessions. So far 2024, it jumped around 73 percent. Read More