Closing Bell: Nifty at 22,350, Sensex down 195 pts; IT, FMCG drag, Autos gain

Indian benchmark indices ended lower in the volatile session on March 5 with Nifty around 22,350. At close, the Sensex was down 195.16 points or 0.26 percent at 73,677.13, and the Nifty was down 49.30 points or 0.22 percent at 22,356.30.

We wrap up today's edition of the Moneycontrol live market blog, and will be back tomorrow morning with all the latest updates and alerts. Please visit https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/global-indices/ for all the global market action.

The Bank Nifty bulls maintained their control, holding firm above the crucial support level of 47400. The immediate resistance for the index is positioned at 48000, and a successful breach of this level is anticipated to propel the index towards its all-time high. The overall outlook remains bullish, and any declines toward the mentioned support level are considered buying.

Bulls and bears experienced another day of minor clashes without arriving at a definitive outcome. The sentiment remains positive, with the index staying above the short-term moving average. The momentum indicator RSI is showing a bullish crossover. For a potential rally towards 22600 and beyond, Nifty needs to decisively breach the 21400 level. On the downside, support is positioned at 22200.

Bloomberg’s decision to include Indian bonds in the Bloomberg Emerging Market Index, coming after the decision of JP Morgan to include India in the JP Morgan’s Emerging Market Bond Index, is a vote of confidence in the Indian economy. Inclusion of India in the Bloomberg Bond Index is expected to attract investment exceeding $5 billion. This comes on top of the expected investment of around $20 billion in the JP Morgan EM Bond Fund. Including India in the EM Bond Fund is a declaration that India’s financial market is mature and stable. This is also a vote of confidence in India’s macro financial stability.

The domestic market experienced range bound movement post hitting new record high in the preceding day, influenced by cautious trend in global peers ahead of the Fed Chair's congressional testimony and key U.S. jobs data. The absence of significant stimulus measures from China further dampened sentiment. Mid and small-cap stocks continued to underperform due to their higher valuations. The IT sector sustained recent losses amid concerns over delays in rate cuts by the US Fed. However, PSU banks outperformed, while auto stocks gained momentum supported by healthy volume numbers and pick-up in rural demand.

The rupee maintained a sideways trajectory around 82.90, supported by muted movements in the dollar index. Domestic economic strength contributed to rupee stability, while global market uncertainties also played a role in keeping the rupee steady. The broad range for the rupee is expected to persist between 82.70 and 83.20.

On March 5, Indian benchmark indices concluded the trading session with a downward trajectory, experiencing volatility, and the Nifty hovering around 22,350. The Sensex closed lower by 195.16 points or 0.26 percent at 73,677.13, while the Nifty recorded a decline of 49.30 points or 0.22 percent, settling at 22,356.30.

Following a test of its robust support at 22,300, the index displayed another DOJI candlestick pattern, suggesting a state of indecision between the bulls and bears. If the price breaches the 22,460 level, there exists potential for a further upward movement towards 22,600 and 22,700. Conversely, the immediate support for the Nifty is identified at 22,300.

The sectoral performance exhibited a mixed trend, with the auto index gaining 1.3 percent, PSU Bank index rising by 2.5 percent, and oil & gas, power, and realty indices each registering a 0.5 percent increase. However, the IT and FMCG indices faced declines of 1 percent each. The BSE midcap index concluded flat, while the smallcap index experienced a 0.6 percent decline.

Upon scrutinizing the Open Interest (OI) data, the call side revealed the highest OI at 22,500, followed by the 22,800 strike prices. Conversely, on the put side, the maximum OI was observed at the 22,200 strike price.

The Nifty opened on a flat note and drifted lower during the first hour of the trading session. It recovered during the second half though closed in the red down ~49 points. On the daily charts we believe that the Index is in the process of retesting the breakout of 22300 it gave during last week. The hourly moving averages placed in the range 22369 – 22264 shall act as a crucial support zone and until the Nifty manages to hold on to this zone we can expect a next leg of upmove to resume.

The initial target and immediate hurdle is placed at 22460 – 22530. The hourly momentum indicator has a negative crossover however has reached the equilibrium line indicating that the fall may have matured and once this consolidation has completed the upmove is likely to resume.

Bank Nifty has been clearly outperforming the Nifty and we expect the phenomenon to continue until support from NIFTY IT kicks in. In terms of levels for Bank Nifty, 47350 – 47300 is the crucial support zone while 48000 – 48200 is the immediate hurdle.

After a fall in the opening trade, banking stocks led a rally that propelled the Index to recoup its losses but NBFC counters dragged the Index lower to settle at 22,356.30 with a loss of 49.30 points.

Apart from PSU Banks, Auto was the top performer while IT and Media remained on the list of laggards. Buying traction was observed in selected Chemical and Pharma stocks. Mid and Smallcaps corrected and underperformed the Benchmark Index. After testing its strong support of 22,300, the Index has formed another DOJI candlestick pattern which indicates indecisiveness between the bulls and bears. A convincing close above 22,420 is a must to resume its uptrend.

Indian rupee ended flat at 82.89 per dollar versus previous close of 82.89.

Indian benchmark indices ended lower in the volatile session on March 5 with Nifty around 22,350.

At close, the Sensex was down 195.16 points or 0.26 percent at 73,677.13, and the Nifty was down 49.30 points or 0.22 percent at 22,356.30. About 1080 shares advanced, 2232 shares declined, and 59 shares unchanged.

Top gainers on the Nifty were Tata Motors, Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Auto, SBI and ONGC, while losers were Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Nestle India, Infosys and SBI Life Insurance.

Mixed trend was seen on the sectoral front, with auto index up 1.3 percent, PSU Bank index up 2.5 percent and oil & gas, power and realty up 0.5 percent each, while IT and FMCG indices shed 1 percent each.

BSE midcap index ended flat while smallcap index shed 0.6 percent.

Oil steadied on Tuesday after falling in the previous session as the prospect of a tighter market due to OPEC+ supply restraint offset concern over Chinese growth and uncertainty over the pace of interest rate cuts.

China set an economic growth target for 2024 of around 5%, similar to last year's goal and in line with analysts' expectations, but the lack of big ticket stimulus plans to prop up its struggling economy disappointed investors.

Brent crude was up 15 cents, or 0.2%, to $82.95 a barrel by 0911 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $78.53. Brent has gained almost 8% this year.

-Overweight call, target Rs 310 per share
-Disbursements were +6.5% MoM, up 13% YoY
-Gross assets rose 24% YoY & up 1.8% MoM
-Have assumed disbursements growth of 12.5% YoY in Q4FY24
-Disbursements growth implies +13% YoY & +34% MoM for March
-If disbursements growth is missed, there could be risks to AUM forecast
-GS2 and GS3 remained range bound versus Dec’23

Sensex Today | Nifty FMCG index fell 1 percent dragged by Varun Beverages, Nestle India, Jubilant FoodWorks: 

Fosfor, a product division of the technology consulting and digital solutions company launched the Fosfor Decision Cloud (FDC). The FDC is a connected fabric that helps companies organize data to build automated, modular, trustworthy data transformation pipelines, build and deploy impactful AI applications, and harness the power of AI to make better business decisions faster.

-Buy call, target Rs 765 per share
-RBI has restricted company from disbursing gold loans due to material supervisory concerns
-Restrictions will be reviewed post completion of special audit & rectification of issues
-Restrictions can potentially impact earnings on unwinding of gold loans, 32% of AUM
-Restrictions can lower co-lending income & potentially higher cost of funds
-If gold lending ban stays for 9 months, we estimate EPS impact can be over 25-30%

Sensex Today | BSE Capital Goods index shed 0.5 percent dragged by Suzlon Energy, BHEL, Finolex Cables

Tanla Platforms launched Messaging as a Platform (MaaP) in Barcelona. MaaP is built upon the Rich Communication Services (RCS) standard to support Google RCS Business Messaging (RBM) and helps operators engage with their customers in richer, more interactive ways.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | CLSA View On IT Sector

-Downgrade TCS & HCL to sell from underperform
-Reiterate sell on Wipro & LTIMindtree
-2024 growth outlook remains weak at best, not reflected in valuations
-Top-down approach to IT services sector demand outlook reminiscent of 2019
-Banking, retail & telecom 2024 vertical outlooks not very different from 2023
-2024 guidance from global IT service companies does not exude confidence
-Believe mid-single digit revenue growth guidance by HCL & Infosys in April 2024 would be a negative catalyst for TCS, HCL and Wipro

Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.03% on Tuesday on weak domestic markets and a strong US Dollar. Disappointing macroeconomic data from India also weighed on Rupee. India’s services PMI declined to 60.6 in February vs 61.8 in January and forecast of 62. US Dollar gained today as China’s economic targets for 2024 failed to impress the markets. National Peoples Congress set 5% GDP and 3% budget deficit target for 2024. Disappointing economic data from France too weighed on Euro, which in turn, supported the greenback.

We expect Rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on risk aversion in global markets and a recovery in US Dollar. FII outflows and disappointing domestic macroeconomic indicators may further pressurise the domestic currency. However, softening of crude oil prices may support Rupee at lower levels. Traders may take cues from US ISM services PMI and factory orders. Investors may also watch out for Fed Chair, Jerome Powell’s testimony to the Congress and non-farm payrolls report this week. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 82.70 to Rs 83.15.

PC Jeweller has received a Show Cause Notice (“SCN”) from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (“SEBI”) via e-mail on March 04, 2024 under Rule 4(1) of the SEBI Rules, 1995.

The SCN alleges non-compliance of certain provisions of the SEBI (Listing Obligations and Disclosure Requirements) Regulations, 2015 (“LODR Regulations”) and SEBI Circular dated November 21, 2019 with regard to disclosures required in the matter of the Company’s accounts turning NPA/ Legal cases/ Resolution Plan etc.

NTPC Green Energy (NGEL), a wholly owned subsidiary of NTPC, has signed a Joint venture Agreement (JVC) with Uttar Pradesh Rajya Vidyut Utpadan Nigam (UPRVUNL) for development of renewable power parks and projects in Uttar Pradesh. The RE power generated from the proposed JVC will meet the Renewable Generation Obligation (RGO) of the UPRVUNL.

-Reduce call, target Rs 639 per share
-Board approves equal demerger of company into CV & PV business to pursue growth opportunities
-Based on peer valuation, post-split valuation may favour PV business at 62% of total valuation
-Post-split, CV business will have the remaining 38%
-Sentiment may improve via corporate action but no major change in the business
-Believe in CV business potential post-split, subject to valuation

Sensex Today | Market at 2 PM

The Sensex was down 137.30 points or 0.19 percent at 73,734.99, and the Nifty was down 36.20 points or 0.16 percent at 22,369.40. About 1091 shares advanced, 2196 shares declined, and 52 shares unchanged.

Leading Light Fund VCC The Triumph Fund sold 25,18,053 equity shares of Swan Energy (equivalent to 0.95% of paid up equity) via open market transactions. These shares were sold at an average price of Rs 721.09 per share, amounting to Rs 181.57 crore.

HDFC Bank has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Steel Authority of India Limited (SAIL) for Corporate Salary Relationship. Under the MoU, over 60,000 on-roll and 65,000 contractual employees of SAIL now have the opportunity to move to HDFC Bank’s Corporate Salary Account (CSA).

Sensex Today | Nifty Information Technology index down 1.4 percent dragged by Persistent Systems, Mphasis, Coforge

The Reserve Bank of India has approved the appointment of B K Divakara as Whole-time Director (Executive Director) of CSB Bank for three years with effect from the date of taking charge. CSB will seek approval of the shareholders for the said appointment within the prescribed period.

The performance of yellow metal has shown a sustained momentum in February, along with a surge witnessed in the last week of the month, owing to global influence of the US Fed rates. While the gold prices hover around INR 62,000, this gradual progression is building the steam for the prices to scale new-highs, probable cross the INR 70,000 mark down the year. While there are talks of rate cuts by the US Fed in the near future driven with the larger goal of bringing the rate down to 4% bracket by the end of this year, we foresee gold prices to continue strengthening in the back-drop of global economic events and consumption demands.

Domestically too, the higher consumption rate along with a considerable size of population considering gold as an investment asset class, the prices will be overshadowed by the strong demand. Overall, we see the yellow metal prices being bullish throughout the year with the consumption class being strong determinants of the price performance.

This is a further step in the direction of streamlining Tata Motors' organization and capital structure, which started with American Depository Shares delisting, followed by plans of Differential Voting Rights delisting and now the announcement of separate listing of the Passenger Vehicle (PV) and Commercial Vehicle (CV) businesses.

We value PV business at INR583/share and CV business at INR336/share. The board will likely appoint a valuation committee in the coming months to determine the share ratios for the demerged entities. This is a strong vote of confidence by the Tata Motors Board in the turnaround of its PV and JLR business, and its sustainability.

We think JLR’s turnaround to become a modern luxury brand offers upside potential to our margin and FCF expectations. Further, despite the recent re-rating, TTMT is trading at an attractive FY25E FCF yield, highest in our coverage. TTMT is our sector top pick.

Sensex Today | BSE Bank index up 0.4 percent led by SBI, Bank of Baroda, Federal Bank

There are two key growth drivers for Avalon Technologies 1) an increase in the mix of box build through new orders or increasing the wallet share from existing customers; and 2) order flows from high-growth/high-margin industries such as Clean Energy, Railways and Aerospace. However, the ongoing slowdown in the US business will have a short-term impact on AVALON’s revenue and profitability.

Estimate Avalon Technologies to deliver a CAGR of 16%/15%/29% in revenue/EBITDA/adj. PAT over FY23-26.

Retain Buy rating on the stock with a Target Price of Rs 610 (35x FY26E EPS).

Strides Pharma Science today announced that its step‐ down wholly owned subsidiary, Strides Pharma Global Pte. Limited, Singapore, has received approval for Gabapentin Tablets USP, 600 mg and 800 mg, from the United States Food & Drug Administration (USFDA).

Coforge has announced a multi-year strategic partnership with Carnival UK, (parent company of P&O Cruises and Cunard). The collaboration aims to enhance the two cruise lines’ Quality Engineering (QE) and Testing capabilities across all operational domains to ensure seamless holidays and exceptional guest experiences in the digital era.

Cyient announced its membership with the Massachusetts Medical Device Industry Council (MassMedic), the largest regional MedTech association in the United States. This partnership signifies a strategic move by Cyient to deepen its commitment to the healthcare sector.

Sensex Today | Market at 1 PM

The Sensex was up 8.52 points or 0.01 percent at 73,880.81, and the Nifty was up 1.60 points or 0.01 percent at 22,407.20. About 1099 shares advanced, 2159 shares declined, and 58 shares unchanged.

A stable growth outlook for domestic OEMs and a pickup in replacement demand will enable a faster absorption of new capacities and drive benefits of operating leverage. Along with softening RM prices, these factors should lead to margin expansion in FY24E (vs. FY23). Moreover, the focus on strategic areas such as PV/2W/OHT/exports (to help margins), along with prudent capex plans (to benefit FCF) should be a long-term growth catalyst for the company.

Valuations at 15.3x/13.3x FY25E/FY26E consol. EPS does not fully capture the ramp-up of new capacities and prudent capex plans.

Reiterate Buy rating on the stock with a Target Price of Rs 3,290 (roll forward to ~15x FY26E EPS).

Easy Trip Planners has partnered with public sector lender Punjab National Bank (PNB) to launch PNB EMT Credit Card. This power-packed co-branded travel credit card is aimed at mass to premium customer segments and has been meticulously designed to offer a variety of rewards for the Indian travellers.

The Indian zinc oxide market is fragmented with limited presence of organized players and JG Chemicals is the largest manufacturer of zinc oxides in India and among the top ten manufacturers of zinc oxides globally. The company is planning to expand its production capacities and broaden the footprint of manufacturing operations and at the same time diversify its product offerings and enter new verticals.

The company is increasing its focus on R&D to support complex chemistries, product innovation and cost efficiencies, while also paying attention towards deep mining of existing customers and expanding its customer base. Investors looking to invest, can invest in this IPO with a medium to long term perspective.

Indian Energy Exchange achieved 9,462 MU overall volume, in February’24, marking a 15.4% year-over-year increase.

The Market Clearing Price in Day Ahead Market during February ‘24 was Rs. 4.93/unit, down approximately 26% year-on-year, due to increased sell liquidity.

The sell bids on the exchange (Day Ahead Market plus Real Time Market) during the month increased by 47% on YoY basis.

Jindal Stainless commenced the usage of green hydrogen in its stainless steel plant in Hisar, Haryana, in association with Hygenco Green Energies, a global leader in deploying green hydrogen solutions. Meanwhile, promoter Virtuous Tradecorp picked 0.77% stake in the company via open market transactions on February 29 & March 1, increasing its stake to 7.38% from 6.61% earlier.

Sensex Today | Nifty PSU Bank index up nearly 2 percent supported by Central Bank of India, Indian Overseas Bank, UCO Bank

The dollar was steady against the yuan on Tuesday as markets digested policy statements out of China that were short on big stimulus measures, while a rebound in Tokyo inflation seemed to take Japan a step closer to the end of negative interest rates.

Crypto mania is still running wild, with bitcoin trading near $66,000, having surged to $68,828 earlier in the session, just shy of the record peak of $68,999.99 it touched in November 2021.

The largest cryptocurrency by market value is up around 57% this year, benefiting from flows into exchange-traded funds launched in the United States.

Spot yuan opened at 7.1950 per dollar and was changing hands at 7.1985, while the offshore yuan was little changed at $7.2100 as markets hoped more concrete stimulus measures would emerge.

The Japanese yen held steady after data showed Tokyo core inflation sped up to 2.5% in February, from 1.8% the previous month. A measure excluding food and energy did slow to 3.1%, but stayed above the Bank of Japan's 2% target.

Sensex Today | BSE Smallcap index down 0.4 percent dragged by IIFL Finance, ISL, Data Patterns

Real Estate Developers Brigade Enterprises shares esrased early gains and trading lower on March 5. The company launched project ‘Dioro’ at Brigade El Dorado at a size of around 6.1 million square feet.

The company has pegged the potential revenue value of Dioro at Brigade El Dorado comprising 525 two-bedroom and three-bedroom units in two towers, at around Rs 380 crore.

The project is expected to be completed by Q2 FY29, and as part of the township comes with a diverse range of over 80 amenities, a hospital, a central park, a multiplex, sports and retail facilities, company said. Read More

The Q4FY24 performance is expected to be slightly better than Q3FY24, but significant improvement will be visible only in FY25. Destocking is largely over and ATBS, IBB, IB and Butyl phenols plants have ramped up their capacity utilization.

Throughout this year, the company will be commencing several projects, including MEHQ and Guaiacol production this month. Anisole plant is expected by 2024-end, until which, it would be sourced externally. ATBS expansion is scheduled for completion in Dec’24.

Currently, the stock is trading at ~45x FY25 P/E. Upgrade the stock to Hold from Reduce rating previously with a target price of Rs 1,626, valuing it at 38x FY26E EPS.

-Hold call, target Rs 900 per share
-Approves demerger of PV & CV business
-As per management, new corporate structure will enable businesses to create growth strategies
-Management says, PV business can have synergies between PV, EV & JLR business around EVs
-Do not expect any significant impact on valuation as a result of transaction
-However, as a result of demerger, it creates a pure play CV & global PV play

Macrotech Developers has launched its qualified institutions placement (QIP) issue on March 4. The floor price has been fixed at Rs 1,129.48 per share, which is a 4.68% discount to Monday's closing price. Sources told CNBC-TV18 that the fund raising via QIP may be around Rs 3,300 crore.

On March 4, Jindal Stainless commissioned its maiden green hydrogen plant. The plant, located at its stainless steel manufacturing facility in Hisar, was built in partnership with renewable energy firm Hygenco. The company says it intends to cut carbon emissions by approximately 2,700 metric tonnes per year and 54,000 tonnes over 20 years through the green hydrogen facility. READ MORE

India's services activity continued to expand in February, with the HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the sector coming in at 60.6, data released on March 5 showed. At 60.6, the February services PMI is below the flash estimate of 62.0 released on February 22. It is, however, above the key level of 50, which separates expansion in activity from contraction, for the 31st month in a row. READ MORE

Real Estate Developers Brigade Enterprises shares gained nearly 1 percent in early trade on March 5 after the company launched project ‘Dioro’ at Brigade El Dorado at a size of around 6.1 million square feet. At 9:25am, Brigade Enterprises was quoting Rs 1,002.35, up Rs 4.85, or 0.49 percent, on the BSE. READ MORE

Shares of Infibeam Avenues rallied over 8 percent on March 5, a day after the AI-powered fintech company received the final authorisation from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to operate as a payment aggregator under the Payment Settlements Act, 2007 for CCAvenue. READ MORE

Sensex Today | Market at 11 AM

The Sensex was down 349.12 points or 0.47 percent at 73,523.17, and the Nifty was down 95.00 points or 0.42 percent at 22,310.60. About 1144 shares advanced, 2013 shares declined, and 86 shares unchanged.

Shares of PVR Inox traded in the green early on March 5 after the company opened a six-screen cinema at the Mall of Faridabad, Haryana.

The cinema is equipped with 4K laser projection and Real D 3D along with five premiere auditoriums with celebrity recliners equipped with 2K laser projection, Dolby Atmos sound and Next-Gen 3D technology.

With this opening, the company unveiled its sixth cinema in Faridabad and plans to firm up its foothold in Haryana with 94 screens in 23 properties, keeping up its expansion in the northern part of India with 469 screens in 104 properties. Read More

Sensex Today | BSE Realty index up 1 percent led by Phoenix Mills, Macrotech Developers, Godrej Properties

ace turtle and Shoppers Stop announced the launch of Dockers, leading global khaki brand. Dockers’ versatile and timeless collection for men will be available across 15 Shoppers Stop stores and on shoppersstop.com, marking a significant milestone for both the brands.