Closing Bell: Sensex, Nifty at fresh record high; bank, IT, pharma gains

Indian benchmark indices ended on positive note the highly volatile session with Sensex and Nifty hitting fresh record highs. At close, the Sensex was up 408.86 points or 0.55 percent at 74,085.99, and the Nifty was up 117.70 points or 0.53 percent at 22,474.

We wrap up today's edition of the Moneycontrol live market blog, and will be back tomorrow morning with all the latest updates and alerts. Please visit https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/global-indices/ for all the global market action.

The Bank Nifty index remains under the influence of a bullish trend, approaching its all-time high levels with a marginal gap of 600 points. The ongoing bullish sentiment is evident, backed by a robust support zone established at 47500-47400, serving as a defensive line for the index. Anticipated to surpass its historical highs in the next few trading sessions, the Bank Nifty sets its sights on upside potential targets at 49000/50000 in the near term.

The index exhibited volatility throughout the session but ultimately closed on a strong note. The short-term trend appears positive, as the index concluded the day above the 21EMA on the daily chart. Additionally, the momentum indicator RSI shows a bullish crossover, indicating a positive momentum for the short term. The bulls are likely to maintain control as long as the index stays above 22,350. Looking ahead, there is potential for the Nifty to reach levels between 22,600 and 22,700 on the higher end.

The Nifty opened on a weak note and witnessed a sharp decline during the first half while an equally sharp recovery in the second half helped the Nifty to close with handsome gains of 117 points. Intraday the Nifty recovered 250 points from the lowest point. The hourly moving averages placed in the zone 22360 – 22287 provided a strong support and the Nifty recovered sharply. We expect Nifty to continue with the upmove as the hourly momentum indicator has provided a fresh crossover which is a bullish sign. The immediate target is placed at 22600 – 22650. Today’s low of 22224 shall act as crucial support level and can also be used as a trialing stoploss for the long positions.

Bank Nifty has clearly been the leader during this rally, and we expect the momentum to continue. Dips towards 47800 – 47680 should be used as a buying opportunity. The Bank Nifty is likely to retest the previous all-time high of 48636.

The broader market i.e. Midcap and Smallcap Index though closed in the negative have recovered sharply. Crucial support zone for Midcap Index is placed at 48100 – 48000 and for the small cap index is placed at 15200 – 15100.

Markets traded volatile for yet another session but ended with decent gains. The tone was negative in the first half, tracking weak global cues, however resilience in banking combined with sharp recovery in the IT and FMCG majors completely changed the mood as the day progressed. Eventually, Nifty settled around the day’s high at 22,474.05 levels.

Among the sectoral indices, banking, financials and pharma put up a good show while realty and metal witnessed profit taking. Meanwhile, underperformance continued on the broader front wherein smallcap shed nearly 2%.

The rotational buying across sectors is helping the index to maintain a positive tone and we are eyeing 22,800 in Nifty. However, the distribution on the broader front can’t be ignored. We thus reiterate our preference for index majors and large midcaps for long trades and suggest reducing exposure to the smallcap counters.

Gains in European & Asian indices and Dow Futures indicating a positive start for the US markets helped local shares reverse the sluggish trend in the second half, as optimism in banking and IT stocks buoyed the key benchmark gauges to fresh all-time intra-day highs. India's sovereign bond inclusion in the Bloomberg EM bond index from 2025 also contributed to the optimism. However, one can see that recovery was not broad-based, and hence markets are more likely to see sideways movement in the near term.

Veefin Solutions has got in-principal approval from the Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE) for raising funds through the preferential issue route. The issue size to the tune of Rs 48 crores will be via mix of issuance of equity shares to non-promoters and convertible warrants to promoters on preferential basis.

Global markets witnessed mixed signals ahead of the US FED chair's testimony to Congress. While it's widely expected that the FED chair may downplay the urgency for rate hikes, the possibility of hints regarding a potential rate cut trajectory cannot be dismissed. Investors are banking on recent FOMC minutes, suggesting the policy rate may have peaked and higher rates could hinder growth.

The domestic market exhibited a smart recovery in the second half, reversing initial losses as buying picked up in large-cap stocks. Nevertheless, the broader index continued to underperform with probit booking in Mid & Small caps reflecting worries about stretched valuations.

Extreme volatility was seen in today's trade with the morning session being dominated by bears and a steep fall in the Mid and Smallcap segments that further dented the market sentiments. Banking stocks led the rally in the 2nd half of the trading session providing support to the Index to recover and also a fierce recovery in the heavyweights addtionally fueled the rally which resulted in a new high and finally, the Index settled the day at 22,474.05 with gains of 117.75 points.

Among the sectors, BankNifty was the top gainer followed by IT while Media remained a laggard. Mid and Smallcaps also recovered but underperformed the Benchmark Index by correcting 0.52% & 1.96% respectively.

On the daily chart, the Index defended its support of 22,300 and formed a bullish engulfing pattern. We continue to hold our positive stance for the target of 22,600-22,650 while a level of 22,300 will remain a strong support point.

Indian rupee ended marginally higher at 82.83 per dollar versus previous close of 82.89.

Indian benchmark indices ended on positive note the highly volatile session with Sensex and Nifty hitting fresh record highs.

At close, the Sensex was up 408.86 points or 0.55 percent at 74,085.99, and the Nifty was up 117.70 points or 0.53 percent at 22,474.00. About 508 shares advanced, 2820 shares declined, and 53 shares unchanged.

Top Nifty gainers on the Nifty were Bajaj Auto, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank, Bharti Airtel and SBI Life Insurance, while losers were Adani Enterprises, UltraTech Cement, NTPC, ONGC and BPCL.

Among sectors, Bank index up 1 percent, pharma and IT indices up 0.7 percent each. On the other hand, oil & gas, power, realty down 1 percent each.

BSE Midcap index down 0.6 percent and Smallcap index down 2 percent.

Buy call on REC, target raised to Rs 560 per share
Expect at least a 60-70 bps sequential improvement in gross NPA in Q4
Expect at least a 60-70 bps QoQ improvement write-backs for PFC & REC in Q4
Expect resolution of Lanco Amarkantak deal in Q4
REC may see some pressure on margins due to its bond yield profile maturing
PFC should benefit on this front
Model a 5-13 bps higher NIM for PFC than REC over FY25-26
PFC at significant discount to REC; we prefer PFC

Oil prices rebounded slightly on Wednesday after four days of declines as signs of supply tightness amid output cuts by major producers overrode demand concerns in China and the U.S., the world's two biggest crude consumers.

Brent crude futures were up 53 cents, or 0.65%, to $82.57 a barrel at 0922 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 64 cents, or 0.82%, to $78.79 a barrel, after declining the past two days.

-Competitive intensity in large kitchen appliances is rising with Havells entry
-Havells announces entry into segments like Cooktops, Hobs, Chimneys & Other Appliances
-Havells launches around May 2024
-Havells targets to become a top three player in three years
-If company achieves market share of 10% could lead to Rs 45-70 per share value accretion in Havells

As per reports from CNBC Awaaz, the USFDA classified the unit in question as No Action Indicated (NAI), paving the way for manufacturing and export from the plant.

-Forecast capex of USD 550 billion in next decade
-India building energy security & momentum in its energy transition
-Power demand is rising while supply-side constraints are becoming more complex
-Rising power demand should help regulated utilities re-rate
-Prefer regulated utilities over IPPs with NTPC as top pick
-Equal-weight on BHEL on strong demand outlook; margin visibility yet to emerge

Sensex Today | Nifty FMCG index rose 0.3 percent supported by Varun Beverages, Tata Consumer, Britannia Industries

Sensex Today | Market at 3 PM

The Sensex was up 320.47 points or 0.43 percent at 73,997.60, and the Nifty was up 90.20 points or 0.40 percent at 22,446.50. About 693 shares advanced, 2631 shares declined, and 51 shares unchanged.

SBI Mutual Fund has bought 63 lakh equity shares in Aavas Financiers and Amansa Holdings picked 23,59,350 shares at an average price of Rs 1,370 per share, via open market transactions. These shares are valued at Rs 1,186.3 crore. However, promoters Lake District Holdings sold 58,39,578 equity shares in Aavas at an avearge price of Rs 1,370.01 per share, Partners Group ESCL 28,89,373 equity shares at a price of Rs 1,370 per share, and Partners Group Private Equity (Master Fund) LLC offloaded 12,67,999 shares at an average price of Rs 1,370.2 per share. In total, they sold 12.63% stake for Rs 1,369.6 crore.

Indian Rupee appreciated marginally by 0.02% on Wednesday on decline in US Dollar. Rupee opened weak amid a decline in the domestic markets and recovery in crude oil prices. US Dollar lost initial gains on positive economic data from Europe which led to a rebound in Euro and Pound. German trade surplus widened unexpectedly to Euro 27.5 billion in January 2024 versus forecast of Euro 21.08 billion on a jump in exports. While imports increased by 3.6%, exports rose 6.3%.

We expect Rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on risk aversion in global markets and concerns over selling pressure from FIIs. Elevated crude oil prices may also weigh on the Rupee. However, softness in US Dollar may support Rupee at lower levels. Traders may remain cautious ahead of ADP non-farm employment and JOLTS job openings data from US. Investors may also take cues from Fed Chair, Jerome Powell’s testimony. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 82.70 to Rs 83.10.

Sensex Today | BSE Information Technology index up 0.3 percent led by Magellanic Cloud, Oracle Financial Services Software, Cressanda Solution

Oil prices rebounded slightly on Wednesday after extended declines as signs of supply tightness amid output cuts by major producers overrode demand growth concerns in China and the U.S., the world's two biggest crude consumers.

Brent crude futures were up 27 cents to $82.31 a barrel at 0745 GMT after falling in the previous four sessions, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 36 cents to $78.51 a barrel, after declining the past two days.

Sensex Today | Market at 2 PM 

The Sensex was up 149.88 points or 0.20 percent at 73,827.01, and the Nifty was up 28.90 points or 0.13 percent at 22,385.20. About 490 shares advanced, 2811 shares declined, and 59 shares unchanged.

Havells India is planning to expand its existing product portfolio with the introduction of kitchen appliances such as cooktops, hobs, chimneys and other built-in appliances. The new venture is expected to bring benefits of synergies of business with its existing range of small domestic appliances. The company aims to be one of the top three market players over the next 3 years from the start of operations. The entire range of products will be outsourced and serve the domestic market. The expected date of launch the category of products is May 2024.

V-Guard Consumer Products Limited (VCPL), the Wholly Owned Subsidiary (WOS) of V-Guard Industries has started commercial production of Kitchen Appliances (Mixer Grinder & Gas Stove) at its state of art manufacturing facility set up in Vapi, Gujarat on March 06, 2024.

-Overweight call, target Rs 3,100 per share
-Despite its complexities, RIL stock has tracked earnings well
-Refining, petrochem margin, tele tariffs large enough variables to drive EPS beat
-Company cannot influence first two, but can control telecom tariffs
-Telecom pricing can then be a significant earnings and stock catalyst
-Retail earnings are relatively modest, can drive a valuation ‘catch-up’ on eventual listing

Bitcoin rallied again on Wednesday after retreating briefly from an all-time high it set less than 24 hours earlier, as bulls showed few signs of pulling their bets on the world's largest cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin jumped 5% during the Asian session to an intraday peak of $66,540 in volatile trading, not too far from Tuesday's record high of $69,202. It was last 4% higher at $65,946.

Sensex Today | BSE Telecom index shed 1.5 percent dragged by MTNL, OnMobile Global, Vindhya Telelink

Gold scaled a record high moving further above $2,100 in a rally sparked by growing bets for a U.S. interest rate cut in June and on safe-haven demand due to the conflict in the Middle East. A wider robust fundamental backdrop added support, including strong physical demand in Asia and central bank purchases.

Dollar index and US 10 Yields have been very resilient during this volatility in commodities market, hovering around the 104 and 3.2% mark. The Fed chair Powell’s two day congressional testimony will be closely watched for more clarity on US interest rate path. Bets for a rate cut in June Fed meeting has increased from 40% to ~55% in a month.

Gold which is looked as a store of value during times of political and financial uncertainty, has climbed by over $300 since the Israel-Hamas war. However, updates regarding cease fire and an ease off in the war will be important to keep an eye on. US Services PMI and factors data were reported lower than expectations in the previous session. After series of weaker economic data last week focus now shifts to US labour market data scheduled this week, which if reported lower than expectations it could further increase gains for bullions.

KPI Green has received new orders aggregating to 9.40 MW for executing solar power projects, out of which 5 MW capacity undertaken by KPI Green Energy Limited (‘the Company’) and 4.40 MW capacity by M/s. KPIG Energia Private Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company under ‘Captive Power Producer (CPP)’ Segment of the company.

Sensex Today | BSE Bank index rose 1 percent led by Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank

Sensex Today | BSE Realty down nearly 3 percent dragged by Macrotech Developers, Sobha, Swan Energy

Bank of India has invested Rs 60.35 crore in National Asset Reconstruction Company, under preferential share issuance. As a result of this investment, Bank of India's equity holdings in NARCL will remain the same at 9% (after allotment of new shares).

The company’s Indian operation is a net debt free vertical and consolidated ND/EBITDA improved to 1.43x (1.66x in 2QFY24).

Though the ongoing capex at Novelis would augment company as the global leader in beverage cans and automotive FRP segments, any additional extension to the capex timeline or an increase in capex would exert further pressure on the company’s cash flow. Its capex would be a key monitorable for any further cost revisions or delays.

Volume growth across geographies is expected to remain stable going forward.

The company has already secured long-term contracts from marquee customers for the Bay Minette facility, offering Novelis future revenue visibility. Company expects Novelis to post EBITDA/t of USD600 in the medium to long term.

Reiterate Buy rating on stock with an SOTP-based Target Price of Rs 600. The stock is trading at 5.4x FY26E EV/EBITDA and 1.1x FY26E P/B.

Sensex Today | BSE Oil & Gas index fell 2 percent dragged by Indraprastha Gas, HPCL, Gail India

Asian stocks rose on Wednesday as traders awaited policy cues from Beijing during its week-long annual session of parliament after a prior lack of stimulus measures disappointed some investors, while gold and bitcoin eased after touching record peaks.

Sensex Today | Nifty Bank index up 1 percent led by Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank

The Maharashtra Industrial Development Corporation (MIDC) has issued the vacation order, directing Indiabulls Real Estate and its subsidiary Indiabulls Industrial Infrastructure to vacate the land area of 512.068 hectors in SEZ at Nashik district, Maharashtra, within one month of receipt of order.

Indiabulls Industrial Infrastructure was in the process of planning and conducting further development on the land at SEZ and submitted a preliminary proposal of revival plan, on without prejudice basis, with MIDC. Indiabulls Real Estate believes this order to be unlawful and is evaluating legal options to defend itself against the said unlawful order, including filing of an appeal before appropriate authorities or court(s).

Bhagiradha Chemicals and Industries' board has given its approval for sub-division or split of one) equity share of face value of Rs 10 each, into 10 equity shares of face value of Re 1 each, fully paid up. This is subject to the approval of the members of the company.

Sensex Today | Nifty Auto index down nearly 1 percent dragged by Samvardhana Motherson International, Bharat Forge, TVS Motor Company

Sensex Today | BSE metal index down 2 percent dragged by SAIL, Vedanta, NMDC

As part of strategic expansion plans in key markets, Sonata Software announced its plan to set up a delivery centre in Kraków, Poland. The nearshore centre will support the growing demands for business transformation, modernisation and cost optimisation initiatives, from global clients in Europe.

Sensex Today | Nifty Media index shed nearly 4 percent dragged by Jagran Prakashan, Sun TV Network, Dish TV

Investor Caladium Investment Pte Ltd has exercised its right to convert all of 6,58,00,866 warrants of Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail into equity shares at the conversion ratio of one equity share in lieu of one warrant.

Sensex Today | Market at 12 PM

The Sensex was down 282.75 points or 0.38 percent at 73,394.38, and the Nifty was down 111.00 points or 0.50 percent at 22,245.30. About 445 shares advanced, 2810 shares declined, and 62 shares unchanged.

Given the strong industry tailwinds for IFM and a solid foothold in Soft Services, broking house anticipate robust and sustained growth for IFM from FY24 to FY26. Thus, forecast a revenue and EBITDA CAGR of 15% and 22% over FY24-26E, respectively.

Expect BSS to clock a revenue and EBITDA CAGR of 23% and 29% over FY24-FY26E, respectively, aided by the potential expansion in distinct service lines and strategic investments aimed at driving incremental and profitable growth.

With visibility of healthy earnings growth over the medium term and strong option value from the expansion plans, initiate coverage on Updater Services with a buy rating and a Target Price of Rs 465 (premised on 18x FY26E P/E on adj. EPS). The target price implies a 36% upside potential.

Sakar Healthcare, ONCOLOGY (anti-cancer) unit has received EU GMP approval dated 5th March 2024with a validity of three years from audited date.

The research-driven API-integrated oncology formulation (liquid injections, Iyophilised injections, tablets, capsules, granules) manufacturing unit located at Bavla, near Ahmedabad, Gujarat has been a
state-of-the-art manufacturing unit with equipment hand-picked from across the globe.

The European Agency audit team inspected the manufacturing blocks of Oral Solid Dosage (Tablet, Capsule, Granules) and Injection (Liquid, Lyophilised) with packaging and storage compliances in last quarter of calendar year 2023 and has granted the approval.

Sensex Today | BSE Smallcap index fell 2.6 percent dragged by IIFL Finance, JM Financial, Mahanagar Gas

Sensex Today | BSE Midcap index down nearly 2 percent dragged by L&T Finance, Aditya Birla Capital, Indraprastha Gas

The US Food and Drug Administration (US FDA) conducted the pre-approval inspection (PAI) at Torrent Pharmaceuticals' oral-oncology manufacturing facility in Bileshwarpura, Gujarat during December 5-11. After the inspection, the USFDA has issued an Establishment Inspection Report (EIR) for the said manufacturing facility. And the inspection has now been successfully closed by the USFDA.

Sensex Today | BSE Capital Goods index down 1 percent dragged by Suzlon Energy, BHEL, GMR Airports Infrastructure

CESC's subsidiary Crescent Power has acquired 100% shareholding of Purvah Green Power, to increase the company’s renewable footprint and partially meeting its renewables purchase obligations of its distribution business. After this, Purvah has become a step-down subsidiary of the company.

Gold prices held above the $2,100 level on Wednesday, near a record peak hit in the previous session as hopes for U.S. rates easing by mid-year mount, while traders awaited remarks on the economy's health from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Spot gold edged down 0.1% at $2,126.13 per ounce. U.S. gold futures fell 0.4% to $2,134.30.

Spot prices hit a record peak of $2141.59 per ounce overnight on Tuesday, rallying for a fifth straight session.

-Downgrade to hold from buy, target cut to Rs 435 from Rs 765 per share
-Gold loan ban to hurt profit
-RBI’s restriction on disbursing gold loans due to material supervisory concerns
-RBI order can dent earnings due to rapid unwinding of profitable gold loan book
-Timing of lifting of the ban is uncertain
-Assuming ban stays for 9 months, AUM to fall 1% YoY in FY25 led
-Forecast 51% YoY fall in gold AUM assuming ban stays for 9 months
-Cut FY25-26 EPS by 26%-27% and RoE by 460-480 bps
-Expect profit to fall 6% in FY26
-Forecast muted EPS CAGR of 5% & RoE of 15-15.8% over FY24-26