Closing Bell: Sensex tanks 940 pts, Nifty ends below 24,000; Hero Moto, Bajaj Auto, Grasim worst hit

Gold prices experienced volatility as Comex gold found support near $2,730 but struggled to break above $2,750. With the U.S. election results due in the next two days, market participants are expected to have mixed sentiments, likely resulting in a range-bound session between Rs 78,000 and Rs 79,000 in MCX. Once the election outcome is announced, gold could see a decisive move of around Rs 1,000-Rs 1,500 in the coming days. Key support levels lie between Rs 78,000- Rs 77,800, while resistance is positioned at Rs 79,000-Rs 79,175.

A turbulent beginning to the New Samvat as the benchmark index tumbled 500 points during the day to test a fresh 4-month low. The Nifty50 index witnessed a one-sided fall, breaking all technical support caused by a correction in heavyweights, followed by broader market participation. Eventually, by the penultimate hours, some respite was seen, which pared down some of the initial losses and led Nifty to settle slightly below the 24,000 zone, shedding 1.30 % for the day.

From a technical point of view, the benchmark index has shown signs of a consolidation breakdown, and a similar move in a follow-up session could be devastating in the short term. Simultaneously, the derivative and technical parameters are in extremely oversold territory, and some respite from sell-off could uplift the overall sentiments. Caution is warranted in the current situation; it is also advisable to avoid unnecessary trade setups. On the level-specific front, a series of stiff resistance could be seen around the 24,200-24,400 subzone and a sustained breakthrough could only direct for potential reversal from the ongoing carnage. At the lower end of the spectrum, 23,900-23,800 withholds a pivotal support area, and a breakdown could drag the index lower towards 23,500-23,450, coinciding with the 200 SMA.

In the meantime, the US election, which is due in a day, is likely to raise the volatility bar and needs to be tracked closely for the intermediate trend analysis. For now, one must stay light on positions as India VIX heads northward to the 17-odd zone and maintain a stock-centric approach.

The Nifty has corrected below 24,000 as the index slipped from its recent consolidation pattern. Sentiment will likely remain weak in the short term or until it decisively moves above 24,100. It might extend its correction towards 23,650 and lower on the lower end. On the other hand, a decisive move above 24,100 could trigger a rally towards 24,500.

As expected, India is underperforming its global peers due to excess valuation. The ongoing selloff has deepened by weak Q2 earnings, dampening investor sentiment. Continued volatility is anticipated in the short-term, as attention shifts to the closely contested US presidential election. Additionally, key economic events, such as the US Fed and BoE policy decisions, will be critical in shaping market movements.

Nifty opened on a flat note and nosedived during the first half of the trading session. It witnessed some pullback during the second half, however closed the day in the red down ~309 points. on the daily charts we can observe that the five day consolidation range has broken down suggesting resumption of the down trend. On the downside, the Nifty is likely to drift towards 23,600 – 23,650 zone where the 40-week average is placed. On the upside, crucial resistance is placed at 24,368.

Bank Nifty also witnessed a sharp decline however it stayed within the broad range 52,000 – 51,000. The Bank Nifty is likely to trade within a range of 52,500 – 50,500 and trade with a negative bias. Crucial support is placed at 50,720 – 50,600 while resistance is placed at 51,750 – 51,800.

US Fed is expected to deliver a 25bps of rate cut in the policy next week. Clearly, the US has done better than was previously expected, putting the hard landers behind. The week ahead has crucial macroeconomic data releases lined up which will potentially shape up its decision making.

October's employment report will reflect the 33,000 Boeing workers who went on strike on September 13 and an additional 22,000 layoffs at Boeing's suppliers, as well as the impact of Hurricane Milton, which made landfall on October 9. These factors can make the macroeconomic numbers appear worse than the previous readings. However, combining the adjusted macro data releases and corporate earnings, we believe the US is on to a soft landing.

Front-loading the rate cuts will be incrementally helpful, as the inflation abates. Leading indicators of US inflation such as shelter and rent indices are contracting fast. In light of all these factors, Fed is likely to deliver another 25bps cut. Domestically, RBI is likely to cut rates in December but a lot will depend on the inflation data of November.

Spot gold was highly volatile and choppy on Monday as it surged on disappointing US nonfarm payroll report, but it fell as yields surged with focus on the US presidential election outcome and possible increase in fiscal deficit. Spot gold closed with a loss of around 0.28% at $2,736 on Friday and was down around 0.50% on the week.

The US employers added only 12K jobs (forecast 100K) and two-month net payroll was revised lower by 112K jobs. Manufacturing payroll declined by 46K jobs (forecast -30K). The unemployment rate was steady at 4.10%. ISM manufacturing at 46.50 fell short of the forecast of 47.60.

The ten-year US yields were 2.37% higher on Friday to settle at 4.387% as both two-year and ten-year yields were up around 3% on the week.

The metal is unable to gain upward traction despite the US yields sharply lower today; the ten-year yields are at 4.31%. Gold may consolidate its gains and is expected to trade between $2,700 and $2,760.

Rupee ends at a record low of 84.12/$

Crude oil prices rallied more than two percent with WTI trading above $71.45, following up with Friday rally on back of OPEC’s decision that it will extend its output cut of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for another month in December, with an increase already delayed from October because of falling prices and weak demand. While both the benchmark WTI and Brent posted weekly declines last week of about 4% and 3%, respectively. The macro picture from China is looking promising after the infusion of stimulus the October month factory activities showed expansion, while US economy has struggled with recent series of hurricanes affecting the labour market. The ongoing week will provide investors with global monetary policy catalysts with rate decisions from the Federal Reserve (US), the Bank of England (BoE), China's National People's Congress (NPC) standing committee meets from Nov. 4 to Nov. 8, which will be closely watched for further details of a raft of stimulus measures that were announced recently.

Overall data crude oil balance is in surplus and the recent rally is mostly on optimism surrounding expectations of more stimulus from China, which we think could make crude rally towards $75 while support sticks around $69-$67. We advise selling into rallies for the day.

Billionaire Mukesh Ambani targets a 2025 Mumbai listing for his telecom business Jio, valued by analysts at over $100 billion, and plans to launch his retail unit's IPO much later, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters. Reliance Industries' boss Ambani hasn't updated his IPO timelines after saying in 2019 that Reliance Jio and Reliance Retail would "move towards" a listing within five years.

In recent years, Ambani, Asia's richest man, raised $25 billion collectively for digital, telecom and retail businesses from the likes of KKR, General Atlantic and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, valuing both ventures at above $100 billion. The two sources said Reliance has now firmed up plans to launch the Reliance Jio IPO in 2025 as it internally believes it has achieved a stable business and revenue stream in becoming India's No. 1 telecom player with 479 million subscribers.

But the retail business IPO is not expected until after 2025 as the company first needs to address some internal business and operational challenges, said the first source. Read More

#1 Net Profit up 4.4% at Rs 1,612.6 Cr vs Rs 1,544.6 Cr (YoY)

#2 Revenue up 2% At Rs 6,899.3 Cr vs Rs 6,761 Cr (YoY)

#1 Net Profit: Increased by 23.6% to Rs 45 crore compared to Rs 36 crore year-on-year (YoY).

#2 Revenue: Grew by 1.8% to Rs 283.4 crore compared to Rs 278.5 crore YoY.

#3 EBITDA: Declined by 12.3% to Rs 38 crore compared to Rs 43 crore YoY.

#4 EBITDA Margin: Reduced to 13.4% from 15.5% YoY.

NHC Foods Limited (NHC) has received in-principle approval from the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) for proposed right issue upto Rs. 49 crores. For the quarter ended June 30, 2024, the company’s Net Profit has increased by 391% to Rs. 200.88 lakhs. This has been a commendable performance from the company, considering its Net profit for the year ended 31st March FY2024 was Rs. 234.74 lakhs.

Sharda Cropchem in Q2 saw 20% volume growth with a 10% increase in prices. Looking ahead, Bubna expects at least a 10-15% price increase, alongside continued improvements in working capital days. For the second half of the year, Sharda Cropchem is targeting gross margins of 30-32% and anticipates surpassing its earlier EBITDA margin guidance of 15-18%.

ABB India, Amara Raja Energy & Mobility, Bata India, Sun Pharma Advanced Research Company, Exide Industries, KEC International, Gland Pharma, Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation, Indian Railway Finance Corporation, JK Paper, Sai Silks (Kalamandir), Procter & Gamble Health, Raymond, Shankara Building Products, Tilaknagar Industries, Tube Investments of India, and VST Tillers Tractors will announce their September quarter earnings on November 4.

#1 Expect M&M to continue to outperform industry growth across automotive & tractor segments

#2 Tractor segment expected to witness uptick during 2HFY25; to be driven by a favorable monsoon & higher reservoir levels

#3 Cut FY25-26 EPS estimate by 1-4 percent on account of lower LCV volume assumptions

#4 Cut FY25-26 EPS estimate by 1-4 percent on lower EBITDA margin assumptions due to higher discounts

#5 Stock trading at attractive valuation of 20X FY26E core EPS

The Sensex was down 1,274.02 points or 1.60 percent at 78,450.10, and the Nifty was down 425.60 points or 1.75 percent at 23,878.70.

Afcons Infrastructure announced that it was declared as the lowest bidder for construction Package BH-05 of Bhopal Metro Phase 1 project’s 12.915 km Blue Line (Line-2) which will connect Bhadbhada Chauraha – Ratnagiri Tiraha via 13 elevated stations. Afcons’

bid of Rs 1006.74 crore was declared the lowest - L1.

#1 JLR October US retail sales: Land Rover retail sales increased 25 percent YoY

#2 Jaguar US retail sales increased 4 percent YoY to 715 units

#3 LR incentives per unit increased 116 percent YoY

#1 Company’s SUV order backlog to support industry leading growth visibility vs peers

#2 Company’s upcoming battery EV launches to support industry leading growth visibility vs peers

#3 Expect 20 percent / 100 percent EBIT / FCF CAGRs over FY25-FY27

The company will carry out a planned shutdown of its Chikmagalur MDF manufacturing unit, tentatively scheduled from November 5 for 16 days for maintenance work. This is a planned shutdown, and there may not be any revenue loss, as the company has maintained proper inventory to manage it.

Afcons Infrastructure discount listing was in line with our expectations driven by market sentiments and lower than expected subscription. The subdued demand for IPO offer was mainly on the back of higher OFS by parent which is facing a challenging phase marked by significant debt and family business restructuring. The fund raised will help the parent better manage obligations, debt crisis in the other group companies. This objective was a hurdle for short term investors to bid aggressively.

Despite the listing below issue price, we remain optimistic on the business long term growth. Long term rationale to invest and hold is justified mainly on the back of a Healthy order book supporting its future growth, strong Track record of executing complex, challenging and unique EPC projects both within India and internationally and Stable financial performance over the years along with a capable efficient management team to take the company to newer heights. For allotted investors, we recommend holding it for the long term as we believe long term growth is intact with Govt focus on infrastructure growth. Short term traders and investors can hold/accumulate more on dips with a target near to Rs 480-500.

Adonmo has raised additional capital from select new investors on September 25, and Zomato did not participate in this fundraising. As a result of the fundraise, Zomato's shareholding in Adonmo has decreased to 17%, down from 19% at the time of its investment in January 2022.

#1 With relative underperformance vs sector, risk-reward appears favorable

#2 Goa inspection outcome positive

# 3 Expect upside from inhalers/ injectables in FY25-27

#4 ARVs will likely contribute materially beyond FY30

#5 Expect stock to trade at 28-33x 1-year forward earnings ex-gRevlimid

Saurabh Jain has resigned from his position as Chief Digital Excellence Officer of the company. He will be relieved of his duties effective January 31, 2025.

The Board has appointed Trilok Chand Saini as Chief Financial Officer. He has also been appointed as the internal auditor of the company until FY27.

Seasonality-wise, in the current week, which is week number 45 of the calendar year, the Nifty has averaged a gain of 0.5%, having risen 60% of the time, based on decade-long data. Looking at the US presidential years since 1999, the Nifty has generated a median return of 1.3%, rising in 5 out of 6 between the period covering one day before election day and two days after.

Maruti Suzuki India today commenced bookings for its highly anticipated 4th Generation Dzire.

Mahindra is set to introduce two pioneering electric brands, XEV and BE (pronounced be), on the Electric Origin INGLO architecture, at the Unlimit India World Premiere on November 26, 2024, in Chennai.

Steel Strips Wheels has achieved monthly net turnover of Rs 370.05 crore in October 2024 versus Rs 395.67 crores in October 2023, recording a decline of 6.48 percent YoY and achieved Gross turnover of Rs 455.24 crores in October 2024 Vs Rs 481.41 crores in October 2023, there by recording a decline of 5.44 percent, YoY.

Private health insurer Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company has set a price band of Rs 70-74 a share for its initial public offering that will start for subscription on November 7.

The anchor book will open on November 6, while the issue will close on November 11. Basis of allotment of IPO will be on November 12 and shares will be credited to demat accounts of eligible investors by November 13. The stock will list on exchanges on November 14.

The Rs 2,200-crore IPO is a combination of fresh issue of Rs 800 crore and an offer-for-sale of Rs 1,400 crore worth of shares by promoters.

#1 NJ district court grants preliminary injunction moved by Incyte Corp against company

#2 Injunction prevents company from launching Leqselvi

#3 Received approval from US FDA in July 2024 for treatment of Alopecia Areata

#4 Company intends to appeal the district court’s decision

#5 Have assumed Leqselvi launch in FY25

#6 Factored in revenue of USD 10/USD 80/USD 150 m in FY25/26/27 into estimate

#7 Earnings impact from product, estimate is 0.4 percent/3.1 percent/5.2 percent in FY25/26/27

#1 After a multi-year roller coaster, telco industry has reached a state of maturity

#2 Company’s wireless subscribers are expected to grow more than 2 percent per annum

#3 ARPU growth is expected to be over 7 percent per annum over the next decade

#4 Home broadband is on the cusp of a multi-year growth

#5 B2B business continues to expand steadily

#6 Overall, estimate FY25-27 revenue & EBITDA CAGR to be 12 percent/15 percent respectively for India business

#7 Contribution to Bharti’s valuation is a mere 1.5 percent

#8 Airtel Africa continues to be one of market leaders in its geographies

The company has clarified media reports indicating its name appears on the sanctions list of the United States Department of Treasury, stating that it has neither been contacted nor informed by the Department of Treasury about any such sanctions. However, it is in the process of reaching out to the Department of Treasury to gather more information.

Lokesh Machines has been exporting machines to Russia since 2011, and these machines are sourced by distributors who either stock them or sell them further. None of its distributors are featured on any sanctions list. According to news articles, the company has been sanctioned for supplying Russia with technology and equipment that could be used for military operations. However, Lokesh Machines is unaware of any machines being used in connection with any sanctioned entities or individuals.

Hyundai Motor India Ltd (HMIL) on Friday reported a 2 per cent increase in total sales at 70,078 units in October as compared to 68,728 units in the same month last year.

Domestic sales were up marginally at 55,568 units last month as compared to 55,128 units in October 2023, the newly listed firm said in a regulatory filing.

Exports were up 6.7 per cent at 14,510 units as compared to 13,600 units in the year-ago month, it added.

ABB India, Amara Raja Energy & Mobility, Bata India, Sun Pharma Advanced Research Company, Exide Industries, KEC International, Gland Pharma, Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation, Indian Railway Finance Corporation, Hatsun Agro Product, JK Paper, Sai Silks (Kalamandir), Procter & Gamble Health, Raymond, Shankara Building Products, Tilaknagar Industries, Tube Investments of India, and VST Tillers Tractors will announce their September quarter earnings on November 4.