Closing Bell: Nifty above 23,150, Sensex gains 632 points ahead of Fed outcome

Indian equity indices ended higher for the second straight session on January 29 with Nifty above 23,150. At close, the Sensex was up 631.55 points or 0.83 percent at 76,532.96, and the Nifty was up 205.85 points or 0.90 percent at 23,163.10.

We wrap up today's edition of the Moneycontrol live market blog, and will be back tomorrow morning with all the latest updates and alerts. Please visit https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/global-indices for all the global market action.

Markets managed to inch higher despite volatility, gaining nearly 1% amid mixed cues. Nifty saw sharp fluctuations in early trade but gradually strengthened, closing near the day’s high at 23,163.10. Most key sectors contributed to the recovery, with realty, IT, and energy leading the gains. However, the highlight of the session was the strong rebound in broader indices, which surged between 2.3% and 3.4%.

Looking ahead, market participants will react to the US Fed meeting outcome in early Thursday trades, followed by the focus shifting to the January derivatives expiry. On the benchmark front, Nifty is recovering amid choppy conditions and approaching its critical resistance at 23,300 (20 DEMA). A decisive close above this level could extend the recovery, while failure to do so, may trigger profit-taking. Given the current rebound, traders should maintain a cautious stance and prefer hedged positions.

The Nifty moved up, shrugging off two days of weakness. Though sentiment has improved slightly, overall weakness is likely to persist as the index remains below the 21EMA.

On the lower end, 23,000 is likely to act as immediate support, and a fall below this level might trigger panic in the market. However, above 23,200, the Nifty could gather more strength.

The Indian market has demonstrated resilience in anticipation of the upcoming Union Budget, with expectations of measures aimed at stimulating consumption and job creation. Small and mid-cap stocks experienced a relief rally, while key index valuations are trading at a 5-year average, which appears attractive given the strong long-term domestic outlook. Investors are now focusing on the upcoming FOMC meeting, with general expectations that the Fed will maintain its current hawkish stance.

Positive US markets and gains in European indices aided domestic market sentiment, as the relief rally continued for a second straight session ahead of Thursday's monthly F&O expiry. Since the market was in an oversold position, there was some breather expected in the form of renewed optimism, which was seen in mid & small-cap stocks that rallied sharply after the recent sell-off. However, with the Budget to be announced in next few days and FII selling remaining unabated, undertone will continue to remain cautious.

After a long duration, Bulls have shown their power right from the word Go; the Index seen compounding its gains which was well supported by the strong performance of Mid and Smallcap stocks. Nifty50 settled the trade at 23,163.10 with gains of 205.85 points. Except for FMCG, all the other sectors ended in the green territory where Realty and IT emerged as top performers.

The positive divergence in the RSI worked well and at present, the Index stands on the brink of a Falling Wedge formation breakout which could drive the Index further up to 23,550 if the breakout occurs between 23,200-23,250. The immediate resistance and support are positioned at 23,270 and 23,000 respectively.

Indian rupee ended marginally lower at 86.55 per dollar on Wednesday versus Tuesday's close of 86.53.

Indian equity indices ended higher for the second straight session on January 29 with Nifty above 23,150.

At close, the Sensex was up 631.55 points or 0.83 percent at 76,532.96, and the Nifty was up 205.85 points or 0.90 percent at 23,163.10. About 2874 shares advanced, 937 shares declined, and 96 shares unchanged.

On the sectoral front, media, capital goods, IT, metal, realty rose 2-3 percent, while auto, bank, pharma, oil & gas gained between 0.5-1.5 percent. The FMCG index was down 0.5 percent.

BSE Midcap index added 2.5 percent and Smallcap indices rose 3.2 percent.

Biggest gainers on the Nifty included Shriram Finance, Bharat Electronics, Wipro, Tata Motors, SBI Life, while losers were Asian Paints, Maruti Suzuki, BPCL, Britannia Industries, ITC.

QIB – 0.0 times

NII - 0.04 times

Retail – 0.10 times

Employee Reserved - 0.07 times

Shareholder Portion - 0.13

Overall – 0.06 times

#1 Stage 3 coverage cut from 59.5 percent to 50 percent resulted in a big PAT vs estimate

#2 However, slippages rising & PCR guided at 51-54 percent

#3 FY2026-27 credit costs (on average assets) could be higher than guided 1.3-1.5 percent

#4 Trim FY26 EPS even with PCR assumption of less than 45 percent

#1 Growth outlook has weakened following Q3

#2 Asset quality outlook remains unclear too

#3 Cut EPS by 10.8 percent/11.2 percent for FY25/FY26 to reflect higher credit costs

#4 Improvement in asset quality remains elusive

The Union Budget 2025 presents an opportunity to revolutionize India’s health insurance landscape, especially with the growing focus on Outpatient Department (OPD) insurance. With over 62% of healthcare expenses in India stemming from OPD services such as consultations and diagnostic tests, there is a pressing need for comprehensive OPD coverage. Introducing tax benefits specifically for OPD insurance under Section 80D of the Income Tax Act could incentivize adoption and provide much-needed relief to families managing rising medical costs.

Additionally, increasing the current tax deduction limits of ₹25,000 for individuals and ₹50,000 for senior citizens would better align with today’s healthcare inflation. Reducing the 18% GST on health insurance premiums, especially for families and senior citizens, could further enhance affordability and encourage broader penetration of health insurance policies.

The sector is also poised for technological innovation. Budgetary incentives to support AI-driven claim processing, teleconsultations, and digital health records could improve operational efficiency while ensuring better access to healthcare services.

To bridge the gap in rural and semi-urban areas, the government could focus on strengthening public-private partnerships (PPPs) and introducing subsidies for economically weaker sections. These measures would not only promote universal health coverage but also empower individuals to manage their healthcare needs proactively.

#1 Reiterate "underperform" as the key catalyst for its re-rating

#2 The inclusion in global passive indices has already passed

#3 Recent entry of L&T in thermal power equipment raises questions about its market dominance

#4 Cut FY25-27CL EPS by 3-8 percent due to weak margins

#5 Modi 3.0-led revival of capex drove its backlog 47 percent YoY

#6 Operationally, BHEL is turning around in 3Q, with execution up 38 percent YoY

#7 However, EBITDA margin disappoints (flat QoQ despite top line +10 percentQoQ)

#8 Stock is expensive at a 34x FY26CL PE

Indian Rupee strengthened today as domestic markets gained for the second consecutive session and a decline in US 10-year treasury yields. However, a strong US Dollar and a recovery in crude oil prices capped sharp gains. US Dollar gained on expectations of a no rate cut by the Fed in its FOMC decision.

We expect Rupee to trade with negative bias on underlying strength in the US Dollar and persistent FII outflows. Importer demand for Dollars towards the end of the month and uncertainty over tariffs by the US administration may further pressurise the Rupee. However, any central bank intervention may support the Rupee.

Investors may remain cautious ahead of FOMC meeting outcome tonight. RBI’s announcement of the OMO may also support the rupee at lower levels. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 86.30 to Rs 86.80.

The Sensex was up 566.56 points or 0.75 percent at 76,467.97, and the Nifty was up 177.35 points or 0.77 percent at 23,134.60. About 2720 shares advanced, 817 shares declined, and 61 shares unchanged.

#1 Q3 slight miss on operating profit; net profit beat was due to release of provisions

#2 While operation trends are stabilising, slight increase QoQ in gross stage 3 assets

As we approach the Union Budget for 2025, we anticipate a comprehensive and broad-based fiscal plan from the Modi government, marking its first full-fledged budget in this term. The government is expected to focus on continued infrastructure investment, particularly in critical areas such as housing, electricity, and employment generation.

The targeted fiscal deficit is projected to be around 4.5% of GDP, reflecting the government's commitment to maintaining macroeconomic stability amidst global uncertainties.

While there may be discussions around potential relief for taxpayers, we do not anticipate any major changes in the overall tax structure in this budget. Instead, the focus will likely remain on enhancing capital expenditure and stimulating consumption to revitalize the economy, ultimately balancing support for growth initiatives with fiscal responsibility and setting a positive direction for India's economy in the coming fiscal year.

#1 Management notes: peak credit costs have been reached, with reduced flow from delinquencies

#2 No guidance was provided on the pace of improvement or the new normal for credit costs

#3 However, management emphatically declared that the bottom had been hit

QIB – 0.0 times

NII - 0.04 times

Retail – 0.09 times

Employee Reserved - 0.07 times

Shareholder Portion - 0.12

Overall – 0.06 times

#1 Standalone revenue rose 32 percent YoY, & was +5 percent estimate

#2 EBITDA was Rs 3 billion (our estimate Rs 2.5 bn)

#3 Adjusted PAT was Rs 1.25 bn (our estimate Rs 720 m)

#4 Power and industry segment revenue growth was +32 percent

#5 Power and industry segment EBIT margins were +11.2 percent and 6.2 percent respectively

#6 F3Q order inflows were Rs 68.6 bn (F3Q24 Rs 25.7 Bn); 80 percent of orders were from industry segment

#1 Net Profit Down 82.4% At Rs12.9 Cr Vs Rs73.1 Cr (YoY)

#2 Revenue Up 39.5% At Rs1,576 Cr Vs Rs1,129.7 Cr (YoY)

#3 EBITDA Down 9.6% At Rs199 Cr Vs Rs220.2 Cr (YoY)

#4 Margin At 12.6% Vs 19.5% (YoY)

#1 Net profit up 13% YoY to Rs3530 crore

#2 Revenue up 16% YoY to Rs38490 crore

#3 Total Costs Rs 34880 crore, up 16% YoY

#4 Raw material costs Rs 12990 cr, up 17% YoY

#1 Net Profit Up 57.5% At Rs126 Cr Vs Rs80 Cr (YoY)

#2 Revenue Up 15.7% At Rs1,148 Cr Vs Rs992 Cr (YoY)

#3 EBITDA Up 42.7% At Rs294 Cr Vs Rs206 Cr (YoY)

#4 Margin At 25.6% Vs 20.8% (YoY)

#1 Net profit At Rs2,852 Cr Vs Rs2,119 Cr YoY

#2 NII Up 33.2% At Rs6,415 Cr Vs Rs5,814 Cr YoY

#3 Gross NPA At 3.26% Vs 3.48% (QoQ)

#4 Net NPA At 0.21% Vs 0.27% (QoQ)

The company's subsidiary, HG Green Energy, has transferred 26 percent of its partial stake from 8 subsidiaries to Stockwell Solar Services. After the stake transfer, these eight entities ceased to be wholly owned subsidiaries of the company; however, they continue to be subsidiaries of the company.

The Board has appointed Nitin Chauhan as the Chief Information Security Officer of the bank, effective January 28.

The Board has approved further investment to acquire a 12.25 percent equity stake in Lloyds Infrastructure and Construction. The cost of acquisition is Rs 14.2 crore. Post-acquisition, Lloyds Enterprises' stake in Lloyds Infrastructure will increase to 24.5 percent.

The Income Tax Department is conducting a search at the Registered office and other offices of the Company from January 28, 2025.

The future of India’s flex space industry lies in a synergistic partnership between the government and the private sector. The government can play a pivotal role by introducing policy frameworks that encourage innovation—such as tax incentives, streamlined regulatory approvals, and interest subvention schemes to ease capital access for operators. Integrating flex spaces into urban development projects, like smart cities, IT parks, and transport hubs, will further bolster growth and establish them as a vital component of India’s economic infrastructure.

At the same time, the private sector must rise to the challenge by delivering world-class, technology-driven workspace solutions that cater to the evolving needs of businesses and professionals. Investments in sustainable practices, digital infrastructure like 5G, and enhanced customer experiences will ensure long-term viability and competitiveness. When the public and private sectors collaborate with a shared vision, we can create an ecosystem that not only supports India’s economic ambitions but also redefines how businesses operate in the modern era.

QIB – 0.0 times

NII - 0.03 times

Retail – 0.08 times

Employee Reserved - 0.06 times

Shareholder Portion - 0.10

Overall – 0.05 times

#1 Robust ordering; operationally mixed results in 3Q

#2 Estimate sales/PAT CAGR of 32 percent/38 percent over FY25F-27F based on diversified growth levers

#3 Miss on EBITDA primarily due to industrial systems

#4 Further capex augmentation planned given healthy demand visibility

#1 Q3 PAT was a big beat to estimate #2 Management guided for a healthy 10 percent volume growth over FY26-27 #3 Management upgraded its unit EBITDA margin guidance to Rs 7-8/scm from Rs 6-7/scm #4 Well-planned RM sourcing should offset impact of cuts in cheap gas supply #5 This drives a 6-11 percent increase in FY25-27 EPS #6 Price hikes after Delhi state elections on 5 Feb may be a catalyst

Company has sharply corrected by around 38 percent in past 1 month

Core OPM at 14-15 percent is much higher than peers

9MFY25 sales/PAT robust at +49 percent/+74 percent, YoY

Q3 orderbook up +60 percent YoY to Rs 60 billion

Company targets Rs 35 billion sales from OSAT by FY30

Estimate FY25-27e EPS CAGR at +50 percent driven by strong orderbook

Appears well-poised to benefit from component eco-system

The Income Tax Department has today initiated a search under the Income Tax Act, 1961, at the registered office of the Company situated in Mumbai.

RailTel Corporation of India has received the work order from M/s Navodaya Vidyalaya Samiti for procurement & maintenance of IT Infrastructure projects amounting to Rs 17,12,80,662/- (including Tax).

The company has re-appointed Hisashi Takeuchi as MD & CEO for a further period of three years

#1 Loss stands at Rs 12.4 crore Vs profit of Rs 7.2 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue declines 8.3 percent to Rs 501 crore Vs Rs 546.4 crore, YoY

#1 Profit zooms 70.5 percent to Rs 24.9 crore Vs Rs 14.6 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue grows 21.1 percent to Rs 3,124.9 crore Vs Rs 2,579.8 crore, YoY

#3 Company signed Share Purchase and Shareholders' Agreements to acquire a 55 percent equity stake in Knit Gallery India

#1 Profit plunges 63.6 percent to Rs 3.68 crore Vs Rs 10.1 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue grows 12.5 percent to Rs 2,204.2 crore Vs Rs 1,958.6 crore, YoY

#1 Profit tanks 30.2 percent to Rs 383.2 crore Vs Rs 549.1 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue falls 0.1 percent to Rs 4,618.7 crore Vs Rs 4,621.7 crore, YoY

#1 Profit grows 19.6 percent to Rs 21.5 crore Vs Rs 18 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue increases 13.1 percent to Rs 301.1 crore Vs Rs 266.3 crore, YoY

#1 Profit falls 18.9 percent to Rs 150.7 crore Vs Rs 185.7 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue declines 7 percent to Rs 417.6 crore Vs Rs 449 crore, YoY

#1 Profit falls 20.3 percent to Rs 225.4 crore Vs Rs 282.8 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue rises 2.7 percent to Rs 1,757.6 crore Vs Rs 1,711.6 crore, YoY

#3 Volumes increase 1.84 percent to 4.12 mmscmd Vs 4.04 mmscm

#1 Profit plunges 49.3 percent to Rs 15.5 crore Vs Rs 30.1 crore, YoY

#2 Deferred tax expense at Rs 5.9 crore Vs deferred tax gain of Rs 16.8 crore, YoY

#3 Revenue zooms 42 percent to Rs 241.8 crore Vs Rs 170.5 crore, YoY

#1 Profit slips 14.5 percent to Rs 564.5 crore Vs Rs 660 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue grows 11.6 percent to Rs 1,998.6 crore Vs Rs 1,791.3 crore, YoY

#3 Company declares interim dividend of Rs 5 per share