Closing Bell: Nifty above 22,100, Sensex up 282 pts led by power, FMCG, banks

Indian equity indices ended higher on February 19 with Nifty hitting fresh all-time high. At close, the Sensex was up 281.52 points or 0.39 percent at 72,708.16, and the Nifty was up 81.60 points or 0.37 percent at 22,122.30

We wrap up today's edition of the Moneycontrol live market blog, and will be back tomorrow morning with all the latest updates and alerts. Please visit https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/global-indices/ for all the global market action.

Despite the volatility in global markets, Indian equities demonstrated resilience, supported by positive investor sentiment and strategic sector positioning. Today, the stock market saw marginal gains, with both the Nifty and Sensex indices trending upwards. The Nifty closed at 22,122.25, up by 81.55 points or 0.37%, while the Sensex concluded at 72,708.16, marking a modest increase of 281.52 points or 0.39%.

The prevailing sentiment indicates a possible upward trajectory for the Nifty, potentially reaching the range of 22,500-22,600 in the near future, with significant support identified at 22,000. Moving forward, stocks with solid fundamentals are expected to provide consistent and advantageous returns over the long haul.

The Nifty opened gap up today and traded with a positive bias during the first half of the trading session. The selling pressure emerged from the resistance zone 22100 – 22150 and the Nifty was unable to decisively close above the resistance zone. Today’s candle has long shadows on either side indicating indecision among market participants regarding the direction. On the hourly charts we can observe a negative crossover along with a divergence which can lead to some correction towards the support zone 21970 – 21930 where the key hourly moving averages and the gap area formed on the 16th February is placed. Overall, the Nifty is trading at a crucial juncture and can turn volatile considering that both Bulls and Bears shall try to defend their respective boundaries.

Bank Nifty continues to inch higher however the momentum is fading out. The negative crossover and negative divergence on the hourly charts suggest loss of momentum on the way up. Ideally a consolidation towards zone 46200 – 46100 shall provide a good entry point for long positions. On the upside the short term target is 47000 - 47200

The Nifty Bank index formed a doji candle on the daily chart, signaling indecision in the market. Despite this, the overall undertone remains bullish, suggesting a buy approach. The immediate resistance on the upside is situated at 46700, and a closing above this level is likely to trigger further short-covering moves towards the 48000 mark. On the downside, the immediate support is at 46000, coinciding with the area of the highest open interest on the put side, indicating a crucial level for potential price movements.

On February 19, Indian equity indices concluded the trading session on a positive note, with Nifty achieving a new all-time high. At the close, the Sensex recorded a gain of 281.52 points or 0.39 percent, reaching 72,708.16, while the Nifty rose by 81.60 points or 0.37 percent, closing at 22,122.30.

The Nifty's daily chart revealed the formation of a neutral candlestick pattern, suggesting indecisiveness between bulls and bears. If Nifty manages to sustain levels above 22,150, there is potential for an upward movement towards 22,400 in the short run.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) exhibited an upward slope at 62, indicating sideways bullish momentum. Immediate support levels are identified at 22,050-22,000, while hurdles are anticipated at 22,250 and 22,300.

The India VIX (Volatility Index) experienced an intraday positive movement of 5.22 percent, settling at 16.0175, suggesting heightened market volatility.

Upon analyzing the Open Interest (OI) data, the call side displayed the highest OI at 22,500, followed by the 22,600 strike prices. On the put side, the maximum OI was observed at the 22,000 strike price.

Nifty has surpassed the swing high on the hourly chart, signaling an increase in optimism. Additionally, the consolidation observed in recent days has concluded with an upside breakout. The momentum indicator RSI is also suggesting a positive shift in momentum. The overall sentiment appears to position Nifty for a potential upward movement towards 22,500-22,600 in the short term. The immediate crucial support is situated at 22,000.

Despite an unattractive risk reward, the broader market continued its outperformance in expectation of improvements in private capex and optimism about political stability. Benign input costs and expectations of a pickup in rural demand will aid corporate earnings growth. On the global front, the US FED will unveil its latest minutes this week, which may hint at the direction of rates; however, the higher US 10-year yield and domestic outflows of FIIs are pointing cautiousness of foreign investors.

Indian equity indices ended higher on February 19 with Nifty hitting fresh all-time high.

At close, the Sensex was up 281.52 points or 0.39 percent at 72,708.16, and the Nifty was up 81.60 points or 0.37 percent at 22,122.30. About 2184 shares advanced, 1243 shares declined, and 123 shares unchanged.

Top gainers on the Nifty were Grasim Industries, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Auto, ICICI Bank and Cipla, while losers were Coal India, SBI Life Insurance, L&T, Wipro and HDFC Life.

Among sectors, capital goods, IT metal and realty ended in the red, while auto, bank, FMCG, healthcare, oil & gas, power up 0.3 -1 percent.

BSE Midcap index added 0.3 percent and Smallcap index rose 0.7 percent.

-Buy call, target Rs 550 per share
-Meesho is looking to insource volumes by using Valmo to decrease their logistics costs by 4-5 percent
-Meesho is looking to pass on benefits to its sellers
-Meesho targets a further reduction of 5-7 percent in coming years
-Delhivery relatively less vulnerable; but poses some risks
-Find company well placed to a well-diversified growth & operational leverage

The dollar held steady on Monday after ticking higher for a fifth straight week on the back of strong inflation data, while the yen traded near the psychologically important 150 level.

U.S. markets are closed for the Presidents' Day holiday, with trading volumes likely to be low throughout the day.

The dollar index, which tracks the currency against six peers, was last little changed at 104.18, after rising 0.18% the previous week.

-Underweight call, target Rs 1,625 per share
-Company sees sequential improvement (Albeit with some volatility) in industry demand
-Improvement will likely coincide with the commissioning of key projects throughout 2024
-Company expects operational efficiencies to underpin near-term margin levers
-Commissioning of key projects is largely on track & should drive near-term margin/volume levers

-Overweight call, target raised to Rs 373 per share
-Stable lead acid prices, improving replacement mix could drive margin expansion in core lead acid biz
-Internal cost-saving initiatives also could drive margin expansion in core lead acid business
-There are many moving parts in the lithium battery business but Exide is ahead of peers

The e-auction premium has fallen from 117% in Q3FY24 to 45% in Q4FY24, company said.

-Buy call, target Rs 680 per share
-Company reported encouraging volume growth in Q3FY24, albeit versus a weak base
Margin expansion & cash generation story continues to roll along
-Traction in AMC business & premium products are incremental positives from this quarter
-Momentum in product innovation & services level improvement, are positives from this quarter
-Raise FY2024 EPS by 13 percent and FY25-26 by a more modest 5-6 percent

Sensex Today | BSE Metal index down 0.5 percent dragged by Jindal Steel, Jindal Stainless, APL Apollo

-Outperform call, target Rs 1,300 per share
-According to experts, likely outcome of inspection on form-483 issued to Eugia III would be an OAI
-Likely outcome of inspection would be modest probability of a warning letter
-Expert views chance of import alert as remote
-Expert viewed shutdown of plant by company as correct thing to do in light of current observations
-On observations itself, expert viewed first four observations as serious in nature
-Observation 2 was specifically viewed as data integrity

Sensex Today | Market at 3 PM

The Sensex was up 346.48 points or 0.48 percent at 72,773.12, and the Nifty was up 109.80 points or 0.50 percent at 22,150.50. About 2189 shares advanced, 1252 shares declined, and 99 shares unchanged.

Coal India chairman PM Prasad on analysts call said the company may miss FY24 production goal of 780million tones.

Emkay Research suggests the government views the PSU sector as a wealth-generating opportunity, shifting from periodic divestment for fiscal deficit fixes. OMCs and upstream companies are expected to reinvest cash-flows in renewables, charging networks, and green hydrogen, aligning with NTPC's solar energy thrust. Despite uncertain IRRs, market reactions are generally positive. The move removes the overhang of persistent OFS supply. However, unintended consequences are challenging to model, and a lack of new private sector refinery announcements may follow. With oil prices potentially peaking, investment strategies need to adapt. ONGC trades at a 6.5x P/E - FY24E only, presenting a 30% upside at a 12% required rate, making it a compelling option for investors open to PSU opportunities.

Shares of FACT surge nearly 8% intraday after being added to the FTSE All-World Index. FTSE's semi-annual review includes 16 Indian companies, with adjustments effective on March 15. FACT, despite modest 2024 performance, triples in the last 12 months, marking a 236% gain. Over the past three years, the stock delivers stellar returns exceeding 900%. The FTSE All-World Index is a market-cap weighted representation of large and mid-cap stocks globally, with India's weightage at 2.06% as of January 31, 2024, featuring 213 stocks.

Gold prices rose to a nearly one-week high on Monday as a slight pullback in the U.S. dollar and escalating Middle East tensions lifted bullion's safe-haven appeal.

Spot gold was up 0.4% at $2,020.28 per ounce, as of 0758 GMT - its highest since Feb. 13.

U.S. gold futures rose 0.4% to $2,032.20 per ounce.

-Reduce call, target Rs 2,190 per share
-Company reported another quarter of subdued earnings amid a sluggish demand environment
-Some signs of a recovery are visible but these may yield a more tangible impact only by Q1FY25
-Company has further expanded its long-term capex plan
-Capex plan now approaches an imposing Rs 15,000 crore & likely necessitates an equity-raise
-Cut FY24-25 EPS by 6 percent each

Sensex Today | CLSA View On Defence Space

-Government continues to walk-the-talk for defence ‘Make In India’ 
-Government approved another USD 10 billion in Indian made products at latest meeting 
-Make In India initiatives should keep hopes alive for more orders if the current government comes back
-Government has approved an intent to buy USD 34 billion over FY23 and USD 43 billion for FY24 YTD

Sensex Today | Market at 2 PM

The Sensex was up 359.59 points or 0.50 percent at 72,786.23, and the Nifty was up 120.50 points or 0.55 percent at 22,161.20. About 2229 shares advanced, 1182 shares declined, and 111 shares unchanged.

Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (IRDAI) has granted in-principle approval to Policybazaar Insurance Brokers (Policybazaar), a wholly owned subsidiary of the company for upgradation of license from Direct Insurance Broker (Life & General) to Composite Insurance Broker.

-Sell call, target Rs 550 per share
-Company announced shift of its paytm nodal account for settlement of merchant transactions to Axis Bank
-Extension of deadline on Paytm Payment Bank business restrictions to March 15 from Feb 29
-Quarters/devices linked to non-Paytm Payment Bank accounts are business as usual
-Quarters/devices linked to non-Paytm Payment bank can continue to operate with no change
-Company earlier estimated that 10- 15 percent of its merchant base use PPBL accounts
-Merchants will have to link another account or get new quarter/non-PPBL accounts
-FAQs do not directly address bank partnerships with Paytm

The Prime Minister has laid the foundation stone for 300 MW solar power plant in Bikaner, Rajasthan. The project is being set up by NHPC under Government of India’s CPSU Scheme, Phase-II, Tranche-III with total investment of over Rs 1,732 crore and is scheduled to be commissioned by September 2024.

Omaxe share price locked at 10 percent upper circuit in early trade on February 19 after the company declared a successful bidder for the development of two bus terminals.

On February 16, the company was declared a successful bidder by Uttar Pradesh State Road Transport Corporation (UPSRTC) for the development of two bus terminals, one at Amausi, Lucknow on a land area of 20170 sq. mts., and the other at Ayodhya Dham on a land area 36426 sq. mts. Read More

CRISIL has registered a 33% on-year increase in consolidated net profit at Rs 210.1 crore for October-December period of 2024, driven by healthy operating numbers. Revenue from operations jumped 11.6% year-on-year to Rs 917.7 crore for the quarter.

The Board of Directors of Balrampur Chini Mills, in its meeting held on 18th February, 2024, has accorded its approval to enter a new line of business to manufacture Polylactic Acid (PLA), to be used for production of bioplastic.

Sensex Today | Sugar Stocks trade higher

Titagarh Rail Systems has received an order from the Ministry of Defence for procurement of 250 specialized wagons. The order value is Rs 170 crore. Execution of the contract is scheduled to start 12 months after the signing of the contract and complete in 36 months.

Maruti Suzuki India in its Q3 call indicated modest ~3% industry growth expectations for FY25E, with no imminent entry-level revival seen yet; amid limited new launch action (electric SUV ‘EVX’ to be the next major launch for company around Oct-24), broking firm build-in a muted ~5% volume CAGR over FY24E-26E; this also drives relatively subdued expectations of ~8% EPS CAGR for FY24E-26E.

Emaky assign a reduce rating to the stock (vs. ADD earlier), with unchanged estimates and Target Price of Rs 10,700 per share at 25x core FY26E PER. Potential revival in small cars and the upcoming E-SUV launch are upside risks for MSIL.

-Buy call, target Rs 1,150 per share
-Regulator nod to upgrade policybazaar’s license
-Upgrade from direct insurance broker to composite insurance broker
-PB’s will likely be in a sweet spot within the reinsurance broking industry
-Expect company’s fresh business market share in existing businesses to increase multi-fold
-PB corporate is likely to benefit exponentially

Sensex Today | Market at 1 PM

The Sensex was up 345.78 points or 0.48 percent at 72,772.42, and the Nifty was up 118.60 points or 0.54 percent at 22,159.30. About 2207 shares advanced, 1189 shares declined, and 103 shares unchanged.

Paisalo Digital said meeting of operations and finance committee of the board of directors is scheduled to be held on February 21 to consider issuance (allocation) of non-convertible debt securities/instruments on private placement basis.

Sensex Today | Nifty Auto index up 0.5 percent led by Bajaj Auto, Bosch, Maruti Suzuki

Tata Group-owned carrier Air India and plane parts-maker Tata Advanced Systems will invest 23 billion rupees ($277.2 million) in the Indian state of Karnataka, the state government said on Monday.

Air India will conduct maintenance, repairs, and overhaul of planes at the Bengaluru airport, while Tata Advanced Systems will set up manufacturing and research & development facilities in the state, the government said.

Tata Advanced Systems makes cargo and bulk cargo doors for European planemaker Airbus' A320neo family of aircraft.

IOL Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals has informed that product “Metformin Hydrochloride” has been approved by Center for Drug Evaluation (CDE) of National Medical Products Administration (NMPA), China.

This will enable the company to export Metformin Hydrochloride in China Market.

Metformin Hydrochloride is an antidiabetic drug which is used to manage the high blood sugar levels in diabetes patients.

Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Ltd. (IREDA) and Punjab National Bank (PNB) have joined hands through the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) aimed at advancing renewable energy initiatives across the nation.

Market Capitalization of BSE-listed companies at a record high of Rs 392 lakh crore

-Buy call, target raised to Rs 4,300 per share from Rs 3,000 per share
-Strong growth to flow into profitability in current quarter
-New product launches a key driver for near to medium-term growth
-Volatility to support both volume and realisation for options
-Expect earnings CAGR of 20 percent in FY24-26 (adjusted for one-offs in FY24)
-Company is trading at a high 40x one-year forward PE
-We believe company trading at a high of 40x is justified on strong growth outlook

Sensex Today | BSE Smallcap index up 1 percent supported by MRPL, BF Investment, BF Utilities

The dollar was steady on Monday after data last week showing U.S. inflation remained sticky cast doubts on when the Federal Reserve would start its easing cycle, while the yen remained languished near the psychologically key 150 per dollar level.

U.S. markets are closed for the Presidents' Day holiday, with volumes likely to be low through the day.

The yen has hovered around 150 level in the last few days, prompting officials to comment on the currency moves and keeping markets on alert to a possible intervention by Japanese authorities to stabilise the stuttering currency.

Clean Fino-Chem, wholly owned subsidiary of Clean Science and Technology, inaugurated its new manufacturing facility in Pune. The commercial production of Hindered Amine Light Stabilizer (HALS Series) will commence in due course of time.

Sensex Today | Market at 12 PM

The Sensex was up 319.40 points or 0.44 percent at 72,746.04, and the Nifty was up 108.80 points or 0.49 percent at 22,149.50. About 2219 shares advanced, 1153 shares declined, and 103 shares unchanged.

Swiss pharmaceutical major Novartis AG announced a strategic review of its subsidiary Novartis India. The public listed company is set to undergo an assessment, encompassing various aspects, including Novartis AG's 70.68 percent shareholding in the Indian entity. Novartis India is separate from Novartis Healthcare, the wholly-owned subsidiary of the Novartis group in India. According to a report by CNBC-TV18, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories is in a race to acquire Novartis AG’s stake in Novartis India and has expressed interest in acquiring a domestic-focused portfolio, potentially offering a controlling premium in the targeted company.

Novartis India was quoting at Rs 1,123.65, up Rs 88.20, or 8.52 percent and touched a 52-week high of Rs 1,148.

IIFL's track record of successful execution is evident in its ability to pre-empt business cycles and prioritize sustainable and scalable asset portfolios. It has embraced technology and expanded digital capabilities in home loans, gold loans, and digital loans.

Co-lending is capital-efficient and RoE-accretive, and mitigates risk.

The company trades at 1.5x FY26E P/BV and can deliver RoE of 20%+ in the medium term.

Broking house believes there will be value-unlocking events over the next two to three years since it plans to demerge HFC and MFI subsidiaries and list them separately.

Reiterate Buy rating with a Target Price of Rs 800 (based on SOTP valuation).

Sensex Today | BSE Midcap index up 0.6 percent led by Rajesh Exports, PB Fintech, CRISIL

The board of directors and 'Committee of Directors of Power Grid Corporation of India in their respective meetings held on 18th February, 2024, have accorded Investment approvals for the implementation of Unified Load Dispatch and Communication (ULDC) Phase-III (SCADA/EMS Upgradation Project –Northern Region SLDCs)” at an estimated cost of Rs 514.66 crore with commissioning schedule of 15.11.2025.

Committee of Directors approved augmentation of 765/400 kV, 1500 MVA transformer (4th) at Bhiwani S/s (Delinked from Transmission System for evacuation of power from RE parks in Leh (5 GW Leh-Kaithal Transmission corridor))”, at an estimated cost of Rs 141.09 crore, scheduled to be commissioned in a timeframe of 18 months from the date of issue of MoP OM i.e. by 05.05.2025.

Gold prices rose to a nearly one-week high on Monday as a slight pullback in the U.S. dollar and escalating tensions in the Middle East lifted bullion's safe-haven appeal.

Spot gold was up 0.3% at $2,019.99 per ounce, hitting its highest since Feb. 13.

U.S. gold futures rose 0.4% to $2,031.50 per ounce.

Sensex Today | Nilesh Shah, Kotak AMC stated in an interaction with CNBC-TV 18 that he finds large-caps far better than mid and smallcaps on a risk-adjusted basis

Larsen & Toubro shares fell on February 19 on reports of Saudi Aramco deferring bid process for $10-billion orders for Safaniyah oilfield projects. That is because the company was likely in a race to acquire major EPC order with respect to Safaniyah oilfield.

News reports are suggesting that Safaniyah expansion is being deferred due to the Saudi directive to cap production, reported CNBC-TV18 on Monday.

At least 10 EPCI deals involving the further expansion of Aramco's Safaniyah oilfield have been cancelled, said reports. EPCI is engineering, procurement, construction and installation.

L&T bagged orders worth Rs 75,990 crore at the group level during the quarter ended December 31, 2023, registering a growth of 25 per cent year on year.

Shares of Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd (RVNL) zoomed 12 percent on February 19 after the company said its order book had touched Rs 65,000 crore. The state-run company is looking out for projects in off-shore markets, including Central Asia and the UAE and Western Asia, it said in an investors call.

"We have got an order book of around Rs 65,000 crore, which roughly constitutes 50 percent from the nomination, that is the typical railway projects, and 50 percent from the market. In time to come, we should maintain an order book of around Rs 75,000 crore," top management officials said in reply to a question.

Shares of Dr Reddy's Laboratories rose over 2 percent and hit a 52-week high of Rs 6,453.95 following a report by CNBC-TV18 that the company is in the race to acquire Novartis AG's stake in Novartis India.

The management of Dr Reddy's has also repeatedly hinted their interest in acquiring a domestic-focused portfolio, in the recent earnings calls.

Meanwhile, Switzerland-based pharma giant, Novartis AG also initiated a strategic review of its subsidiary, Novartis India on February 16. The strategic review will also look over the Novartis AG's 70.68 percent shareholding in its Indian arm.

Shares of Healthcare Global surged over 4 percent to a 52-week high on February 19 morning after reports said private equity funds EQT (previously Baring PE Asia-EQT), TPG Capital and KKR were in race to acquire a controlling stake in the cancer hospital chain.

The three private equity firms are eyeing the controlling stake held by CVC Capital, a report in The Economic Times said. The investment firm holds a 60.41 percent stake in Healthcare Global through its associate Aceso Company Pte. Read More

Oil prices fell as investor attention returned to the demand outlook after reports of higher producer prices in the U.S., the world's biggest oil user, stoked worries that sticky inflation and higher interest rates would limit fuel consumption growth.

Brent crude futures were down 61 cents, or 0.7%, at $82.86 a barrel at 0440 GMT. The March contract for U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude, which expires on Tuesday, was 41 cents, or 0.5%, lower at $78.78.

The WTI April contract was down 0.8%, or 60 cents, at $77.86.

The Wise Travel India (WTI) Cabs stock listed at a 32.6 percent premium over the IPO price on February 19. The stock opened at Rs 195 on the NSE SME platform against the issue price of Rs 147.

Ahead of the listing, the share was commanding a 48 percent premium in the grey market, an unofficial ecosystem where shares start trading before the allotment in the IPO and until the listing day. Most investors track the grey market to get an idea of the listing price.

The offer was subscribed 160 times with the retail portion getting booked 108 times. The public offer opened for subscription on February 12 and closed on February 14. The price band for the issue was fixed at Rs 140-147 per share. Read More