Closing Bell: Sensex up 592 pts, Nifty above 25,100; realty, IT, banks shine

Indian equity indices ended on strong note with Nifty above 25,100 on October 14 amid buying across the sectors. At close, the Sensex was up 591.69 points or 0.73 percent at 81,973.05, and the Nifty was up 163.70 points or 0.66 percent at 25,128.

We wrap up today's edition of the Moneycontrol live market blog, and will be back tomorrow morning with all the latest updates and alerts. Please visit https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/global-indices for all the global market action.

A sharp fall in crude oil prices provided a major impetus to the markets, as markets ended in positive territory led by gains in banking, IT and realty stocks. The recovery may not fuel strong bullish sentiment, as FIIs deserting Indian markets this month coupled with lingering West Asia conflict has created a lot of uncertainty among the investors.

After showing a narrow range movement with weak bias in the last few sessions, Nifty shifted into a sustainable upside bounce on Monday and closed the day higher by 163 points. After opening with a positive note, the market surged up further in the early part of the session. It later shifted into a range bound action with positive bias in the mid to later part of the session.

A long bull candle was formed on the daily chart, which is indicating an attempt of upside breakout of smaller range movement. Having moved within a broader high low range of 25200-24700 levels in the last 3-4 sessions, Nifty has bounced back and is now placed near the upper range of 25200 levels.

A sustainable move above the upper range of 25200 levels could be considered as an upside breakout of the key hurdle and that could eventually pull Nifty towards the next resistance of 25500-25600 levels in the near term. Immediate support is placed at 24900 levels.

After an initial uptick in the morning trade, the index remained rangebound for the rest of the day and settled at 25,127.95, with gains of 163.70 points. Barring Media and Metal, all the other sectors ended in green with Realty being the top performer, followed by IT and BankNifty. Mid and Smallcaps also advanced but underperformed the Frontline Index.

A bullish Marubozu Open candlestick pattern was formed on the daily chart and breached its congestion zone and 50DMA hurdle; however, in the lower timeframe i.e. hourly chart, a convincing move above 25,200 will confirm the same. On the downside, the psychological level of 25,000 will work as immediate support and on the flip side, 25,160-25,200 will be considered a resistance zone.

Nifty opened gap up and traded with a positive bias throughout the day to close with gains of ~164 points. On the daily charts we can observe that the Nifty has resumed its upmove towards 25500 after a brief three-day consolidation. Hourly momentum indicator has a positive crossover which is a buy signal. Thus, we expect the positive momentum to continue over the next few trading sessions towards 25234 – 25360. Support base shifts higher towards 24920.

Bank Nifty broke out of a three day consolidation on the upside and is now inching towards 52500 which coincides with the 20-day average. Support base shifts higher towards 51400 – 51500.

Global markets are showing mixed signals as China’s disinflation and weaker economic data suggest a potential further slowdown in global economic growth, already affected by rising geopolitical tensions.

Furthermore, the positive impact of the Chinese stimulus package seems to be diminishing. Meanwhile, the Indian market is demonstrating resilience, with subdued Q2 earnings expectations seemingly priced in and oil prices declining. The IT and financial sectors are attracting buying interest after recent corrections.

Indian rupee ended marginally higher at 84.05 per dollar on Monday versus Friday's close of 84.07.

Indian equity indices ended on strong note with Nifty above 25,100 on October 14 amid buying across the sectors.

At close, the Sensex was up 591.69 points or 0.73 percent at 81,973.05, and the Nifty was up 163.70 points or 0.66 percent at 25,128. About 1952 shares advanced, 1919 shares declined, and 140 shares unchanged.

Wipro, Tech Mahindra, HDFC Life, L&T, HDFC Bank were among the top gainers on the Nifty, while losers were ONGC, Maruti Suzuki, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finance and Adani Enterprises.

Except metal and media, all other sectoral indices ended in the green with Information Technology, Bank, Realty up 1 percent each.

The BSE midcap index was up 0.3 percent and smallcap index ended flat.

#1 Q2 handling volume growth was 6 percent (Exim 4 percent & domestic 14 percent)

#2 This was below Q2FY25 growth estimate of 7 percent (Exim 5 percent and domestic 20 percent)

#3 Q1FY25 growth was 6 percent (Exim 4 percent and domestic 15 percent)

#4 CCRI had previously guided for F25 Exim & domestic growth to be 15 percent & 25 percent, respectively

#5 A 2H growth requirement of 26 percent in Exim & 35 percent in domestic segment will thus meet annual guidance

#1 Q2 revenue (+9 percent YoY) & EBITDA (+68 percent YoY; +2 percent QoQ) missed estimate by 2 percent/6 percent respectively

#2 PAT was ahead by 27 percent on higher other income

#3 Paid campaign net adds at +7,000 (1 percent QoQ/7 percent YoY)

#4 Realisations growth at +2 percent YoY were both at the slowest pace since Q1FY23

#5 On upside, user traffic - key to sustained campaigns and realizations growth

#6 User traffic recovered sharply to 15 percent YoY (1Q: 6 percent YoY)

#7 Rise estimates, as traffic growth recovery sets stage for better monetisation in subsequent quarter

#8 Will watch for sustenance in trends before potentially turning more constructive

#9 EBITDA estimates are up 10 percent/13 percent/13 percent vs earlier for FY25/26

Indian Rupee is trading nearly flat today recovering from morning lows. Rupee touched a fresh record low earlier in the day on strong US Dollar and elevated crude oil prices. However, strong domestic markets supported Rupee at lower levels. Dollar remained strong on sticky inflation and PPI data.

We expect Rupee to trade with a negative bias on FII outflows and geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. Overall strength in the US Dollar may further pressurise the Rupee. However, positive tone in the domestic markets may support the Rupee at lower levels.

Traders may take cues from retail sales and housing data from the US this week. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 83.90 to Rs 84.30.

Shares of Indian Energy Exchange dropped up to 6 percent on October 14 as renewed concerns over market coupling resurfaced, a long-standing overhang on the stock. Power Secretary Pankaj Agarwal confirmed that work on the power coupling mechanism is ongoing and reiterated the government's commitment to its implementation.

What we’re experiencing presently in the stock market is a long overdue correction. And it is not unusual to even see 20% corrections within large bull markets. But looking at the market structure, we expect an immediate floor for Nifty at 24,700 and a long term support of 23,500.

Even before the benchmark began to correct, we already witnessed deep corrections in segments like Defence, PSUs, etc. Specifically, 41% of stocks in the Small Cap for 250 index and 56% of small and micro-cap stocks have declined by over 20% from their 52-week highs, with around 19% of micro-cap stocks seeing drops exceeding 50%.

Even after this deep correction, we still see a lot of midcaps and small caps devoid of any valuation comfort to invest in them. For the next few months, we will see downfalls in those stocks where valuations are 30-40x and promoter comfort is not high. Having said that, quality names with high business visibility and reasonable valuations will continue to deliver over 1-2 year period. Large caps may take preference for a few months. A gradual out-performance from the BFSI is expected, we remain bullish on insurance stocks; BOB and HDFC Bank from the banking space.

The bull market is very much intact. For now, China’s monetary stimulus seems to have made its markets more appealing than India due to lower valuations. However, China faces deeper structural challenges that monetary and likely fiscal stimulus alone cannot resolve. In contrast, India has a stronger macroeconomic profile, which is unlikely to divert investment flows away from it. India’s weight in MSCI has been rising over the years and now stands at 2nd highest place in the EM basket.

We analysed the broad ratio of MSCI China and MSCI India over several years and found that China has had multiple short-term recovery moves, which lasted approximately two months before resuming the downtrend. Therefore, we believe that the current China trade is a tactical one, and not a long term one.

A block deal involving 10.4 lakh shares of Trent(0.3% equity) worth Rs 846.1 crore changed hands on the exchanges at an average price of Rs 8,115 per share.

Airtel Business, the B2B arm of Bharti Airtel has partnered with Zscaler, a global cloud security leader, to launch ‘Airtel Secure Digital Internet ’‐ India’s first, fully‐managed Zero Trust Architecture (ZTA) based solution designed to protect enterprisesfrom a wide range of cyber threats.

Garuda Construction and Engineering Limited, an infrastructure development company, is set to make its stock market debut. While the IPO received a decent subscription of 7.5 times, the grey market premium (GMP) currently stands at 0, indicating a potential for a flat or even negative listing.

The company's key strengths include a strong order book and project diversification, which provide a stable revenue stream. Additionally, Garuda Construction and Engineering's return on net worth is superior compared to its peers, despite operating in a cyclical industry.

While the company's financial performance was robust in FY23, the election year in FY24 led to a slowdown in revenue and profit growth.

The IPO's valuation was reasonable, but investors should carefully consider the cyclical nature of the industry and the potential impact of market volatility on the company's performance. A flat or negative listing is a possibility, and investors should be prepared for short-term losses.

The company has entered into negotiations with CD&R for the sale of a 50 percent controlling stake in Opella, the consumer healthcare business. Headquartered in France, Opella employs over 11,000 people, operates in 100 countries, and manages manufacturing sites and four research and innovation centers.

The US FDA has determined the inspection classification of the Goa facility of the company as official action indicated (OAI). The US health regulator inspected the facilities at Goa Plant-II & III, L-32, 33, 34 in July 2024.

#1 Q2 sales & PAT below expectations

#2 Gross margin was 30 bps below estimate

#3 PAT was notably below estimate with higher-than-expected employee costs

#4 Cut FY25-FY27 estimate 13-15 percent to reflect slower sales & higher overhead costs

#5 While company’s management called out increased competition from ecommerce as a challenge in Q2

#6 Believe company is making appropriate pivot to private labels

#7 Pivot to private labels will place it well to meet future competition

The company's subsidiary, JSW Energy PSP Two, has signed an Energy Storage Facility Agreement (ESFA) with Maharashtra State Electricity Distribution Company (MSEDCL) for the procurement of 1,500 MW / 12,000 MWh of pumped hydro energy storage. The ESFA is for the supply of energy storage capacity for 40 years, during which the company will receive a fixed capacity charge of Rs 84.66 lakh per MW per annum.

28,691 shares of BSE trade in a block deal at Rs 4,673.05/share worth Rs 13.41 crore

The company's subsidiary, JSW Port Logistics, has completed the acquisition of a 70.37 percent stake in Navkar Corporation from its promoters.

HCLTech is gearing up to announce its Q2FY25 results on October 14, with revenue likely to see a sequential rise, though net profit may face pressure. Analysts expect profit to dip due to sluggish growth in the software business, the absence of revenue from the divested State Street BPO, and a potential normalisation of other income streams.

According to a Moneycontrol poll, HCLTech’s Q2FY25 revenue is forecasted to grow by 1.6 percent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to Rs 28,517 crore, while profit after tax (PAT) is expected to decline by 5.5 percent QoQ to Rs 4,024 crore.

Earnings estimates of analysts polled by Moneycontrol are in a narrow range, so any positive or negative surprises may elicit a sharp reaction in the stock. Read More

The company has entered into a Share Purchase Agreement with Axis Trustee Services (as the trustee of Roadstar Infra Investment Trust) to sell 24.35 crore equity shares of its subsidiary, Barwa Adda Expressway.

It has also agreed to assign its receivables amounting to Rs 1,302.93 crore owed by Barwa Adda Expressway to the Trust by executing a Deed of Assignment with Axis Trustee Services (as the trustees) and Roadstar Investment Managers (as the Investment Manager of the Trust). The company will receive Rs 545.55 crore in cash and the balance in the form of units of the Trust.

Rakesh Agarwal has resigned as Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of the company due to personal priorities, effective November 10.

The company has commissioned a manufacturing plant at Fertilizernagar, Vadodara, for the production of hydroxylamine sulphate crystal (FIX crystal). The new facility has an installed annual capacity of manufacturing 6,600 MT of FIX crystal.

#1 Net profit up 5 percent at Rs 8.4 crore vs Rs 8 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue up 13.5 percent at Rs 103.3 crore vs Rs 91 crore, YoY

#3 EBITDA up 23.5 percent at Rs 24.7 crore vs Rs 20 crore, YoY

#4 Margin at 24 percent vs 22 percent, YoY

Holiday Club Resorts Rus LLC (HCR Rus LLC), incorporated in Russia, has been voluntarily liquidated effective October 10. HCR Rus LLC is not a material subsidiary of the company, and its liquidation will have no material impact on the consolidated financials of the company. HCR Rus LLC has ceased to be a subsidiary of the company.

#1 Biggest miss was revenue growth, slowest in 4 years, LFL growth slowest in 3 years

#2 Standalone EBITDA & margin were slightly lower YoY due to operating leverage

#3 Company can get back to 20 percent + growth on faster store/retail area addition, if we see increased focus with 4-6 hr delivery and on reduced competitive intensity from QC in metros

#4 Anticipate these to take 3-5 quarters to impact

#1 Company is trading at 25x FY26 core EPS with 23 percent EPS CAGR over FY24-FY27

#2 Company offers an attractive combination of growth at a very reasonable valuation

#3 Fast EPS growth will be driven by healthy core revenue growth of 16 percent , 60 bps core margin expansion over FY24-FY27

#4 With its vast array of capabilities, large order book, strong B/S & cash flows

#5 L&T is well suited to benefit from capex tailwinds in India & Middle East

The construction engineering company has received a Letter of Acceptance from the City & Industrial Development Corporation of Maharashtra (CIDCO) for a project worth Rs 2,039.6 crore. The project involves integrated infrastructure development of roads 20 meters wide and above, construction of various major and minor structures (flyover, minor bridges, VUPS, PUPS, etc.), and allied electrical works (street lighting) in TPS - 8, 9, and 12 under the NAINA project.

The company has received a letter of acceptance from the Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai (MCGM) for the construction, completion, and handing over of about 13,374 affordable housing tenements under the Project-Affected Persons (PAP) Scheme on the company’s land at Malad East, Mumbai.

The Board will meet on October 16 to consider raising funds through the issuance of equity shares via qualified institutional placements (QIP), preferential issues, rights issues, private placements, bonds, debentures, or any other method.

HCLTech is gearing up to announce its Q2FY25 results on October 14, with revenue likely to see a sequential rise, though net profit may face pressure. Analysts expect profit to dip due to sluggish growth in the software business, the absence of revenue from the divested State Street BPO, and a potential normalisation of other income streams.

According to a Moneycontrol poll, HCLTech's Q2FY25 revenue is forecasted to grow by 1.6 percent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to Rs 28,517 crore, while profit after tax (PAT) is expected to decline by 5.5 percent QoQ to Rs 4,024 crore.

Earnings estimates of analysts polled by Moneycontrol are in a narrow range, so any positive or negative surprises may elicit a sharp reaction in the stock. Read More

#1 Profit jumps 28.7 percent to Rs 25.8 crore Vs Rs 20.03 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue grows 6 percent to Rs 512.7 crore Vs Rs 483.8 crore, YoY

#3 EBITDA increases 4.4 percent to Rs 86.3 crore Vs Rs 82.6 crore, YoY

#4 Margin falls to 16.8 percent Vs 17.1 percent, YoY

#1 Net revenue drops 1.3 percent to Rs 141.8 crore Vs Rs 143.7 crore, YoY

#2 Own brands revenue grows 0.3 percent to Rs 127.2 crore Vs Rs 126.8 crore, YoY

#3 Wine tourism revenue increases 1.3 percent to Rs 12.2 crore Vs Rs 12.1 crore, YoY

The Sensex was up 469.19 points or 0.58 percent at 81,850.55, and the Nifty was up 136.40 points or 0.55 percent at 25,100.70.

The Department of Public Enterprises announced that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has approved the upgradation of Hindustan Aeronautics to the 14th Maharatna Central Public Sector Enterprise (CPSE).

Veranda XL, a subsidiary of Veranda Learning Solutions, announced a significant collaboration with Madras Christian College (MCC) through the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) aimed at providing professional Chartered Accountancy (CA) training on campus under the brand of JK Shah Classes.

The construction engineering company has received a letter of acceptance for projects worth Rs 2,000 crore from the Maharashtra State Road Development Corporation. The projects involve the construction of major bridges across Jaigad Creek between Tawsal and Jaigad, Kundalika Creek between Revdanda to Salav, and Bankot Creek between Kolmandla (District Raigad) to Veshvi on the Revas Reddi Coastal Highway in Ratnagiri, Maharashtra.

Reliance Industries, HCL Technologies, Angel One, Sterling and Wilson Renewable Energy, Alok Industries, Gopal Snacks, Ceenik Exports, Dr Lalchandani Labs, International Travel House, Nutraplus India, Oriental Hotels, Premier Polyfilm, Rajoo Engineers, and Rita Finance and Leasing will release quarterly earnings on October 14.

The construction engineering company has received a Letter of Acceptance from the City & Industrial Development Corporation of Maharashtra (CIDCO) for a project worth Rs 2,039.6 crore. The project involves integrated infrastructure development of roads 20 meters wide and above, construction of various major and minor structures (flyover, minor bridges, VUPS, PUPS, etc.), and allied electrical works (street lighting) in TPS - 8, 9, and 12 under the NAINA project.

The Board will meet on October 17 to consider the issuance of bonus shares for the company.

#1 Profit rises 5.8 percent to Rs 659.4 crore Vs Rs 623.4 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue jumps 14.4 percent to Rs 14,444.5 crore Vs Rs 12,624.4 crore, YoY

#3 EBITDA increases 8.8 percent to Rs 1,093.8 crore Vs Rs 1,005 crore, YoY

#4 Margin drops 40 bps to 7.6 percent Vs 8 percent, YoY

This month, through 11th October, FPIs have sold equity for Rs 58710 crores. (Source: NSDL) This massive selling didn’t have a serious impact on the market since the entire FPI selling has been absorbed by DIIs who are receiving sustained fund inflows. This trend of FII selling and DII buying is likely to sustain in the near-term since Chinese stocks continue to be cheap compared to the elevated valuations in India.

IT and banking stocks are likely to remain resilient on the back of expected good Q2 numbers. However, there is only limited scope for the market to move up sharply from here. FY25 earnings expectations have been downgraded by most analysts. The uncertainty surrounding the US presidential elections next month also is likely to weigh on markets along with the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The market remains bullish, with Nifty expected to confirm strength above 25,301. The US economy shows progress on inflation control, as indicated by the September PPI report. FIIs have been net sellers in October, with outflows totaling Rs 58,450 crore.

Key Q2 results from HCL Tech and Reliance will be released today, followed by HDFC AMC, HDFC Life, PVR Inox, and Rallis India tomorrow.

The much-awaited Hyundai Motor India IPO, worth Rs 27,870 crore, is set for October 15th.

For Nifty, buy on dips between 24,850-24,900, targeting 25,151/25,301, while Bank Nifty suggests buys between 51,100-51,300, targeting 51,500/51,801. Nalco is a top pick with targets up to 265.