Closing Bell: Nifty below 22,300, Sensex down 845 pts; IT, banks top drag, oil & gas gains

Indian benchmark indices ended lower for the second consecutive session on April 15 with Nifty around 22,300. At close, the Sensex was down 845.12 points or 1.14 percent at 73,399.78, and the Nifty was down 246.90 points or 1.10 percent at 22,272.50.

We wrap up today's edition of the Moneycontrol live market blog, and will be back tomorrow morning with all the latest updates and alerts. Please visit www.moneycontrol.com/markets/global-indices for all the global market action.

Nifty opened gap down today and drifted lower during the course of the day to close with a deep cut of ~242 points. On the daily charts we can observe that the Nifty is in the process of retracing the rise it has witnessed from 22710 – 22776. The key 50 and 61.82% Fibonacci retracement levels are placed at 22240 – 22117. The daily momentum indicator has triggered a fresh negative crossover which is a sell signal. Thus, in case of a bounce towards 22350 – 22370 it should be used as a selling opportunity. On the upside, the gap area formed today in the range 22420 – 22500 shall act as an immediate hurdle from short term perspective.

Bank Nifty also witnessed correction and closed down ~791 points. The next crucial Fibonacci support is placed at 47443 which also coincides with the 20-day moving average. Thus, 47400 – 47300 is the crucial support zone while 48250 – 48300 is the immediate hurdle zone from short term perspective. Minor degree bounce backs should be used as a selling opportunity.

The Bank Nifty index has continued to face strong bearish pressure, with visible selling during intraday bounces. The index is poised to test its support at 47,500, which aligns with the 20-day moving average (20DMA). Failure to hold above this level could lead to further declines. Immediate resistance is established in the 48,500 to 48,600 zone. A decisive break above this resistance is necessary to resume the upward movement towards the 50,000 mark.

The worsening situation in the Middle-East with conflict between Iran and Israel flaring up had engulfed Dalal Street. Investors worldwide, including in India, have turned cautious and resorted to profit-taking. If the situation turns bad, we may see extended broad-based selling in local markets. Geo political tensions and uncertainty over interest rate cut could have a bearing on the markets.

The Nifty recently dipped below a crucial moving average, following a breakdown in consolidation. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a bearish crossover. Short-term sentiment appears bearish, although a significant decline isn't anticipated at present. Instead, the index is likely to fluctuate between 22200 and 22400. Sellers are expected to persist as long as the index remains below the 22400 mark.

Amidst global turmoil, the Indian rupee displayed resilience, trading in a narrow range between 83.42 and 83.46, defying expectations of volatility, while the US dollar held steady near 105.70, and crude oil weakness offset gains, as market sentiment was weighed down by geopolitical tensions from the Iran-Israel conflict.

Indian rupee ended flat at 83.45 per dollar versus Friday's close of 83.43.

Indian benchmark indices ended lower for the second consecutive session on April 15 with Nifty below 22,300.

At close, the Sensex was down 845.12 points or 1.14 percent at 73,399.78, and the Nifty was down 246.90 points or 1.10 percent at 22,272.50. About 761 shares advanced, 2636 shares declined, and 102 shares unchanged.

Biggest losers on the Nifty include Shriram Finance, Wipro, Bajaj Finance, ICICI Bank and Bajaj Finserv, while gainers were ONGC, Hindalco Industries, Maruti Suzuki, Nestle India and Bharti Airtel.

Among sectors, except oil & gas and metal, all other sectoral indices ended in the red.

BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices down 1.5 percent each.

Indian Rupee weakened on a strong US Dollar and a decline in domestic markets. Global risk sentiments deteriorated on renewed geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran over the weekend. However, sharp downside in the Rupee was contained amid upbeat domestic macroeconomic data from India and possible intervention by the central bank. India’s CPI rose 4.85% in March 2024 versus 5.09% in February 2024. Industrial production increased by 5.7% in February 2024 versus 3.8% in January 2024. US Dollar rose to a 5-month high as Iran fired a barrage of missiles and armed drones on Israel targets.

We expect Rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on heightened global tensions in the Middle East which could impact global equities and strengthen the Dollar further. Any further escalation of tensions may trigger fresh upside in crude oil prices which could further pressurise the Rupee. However, if the situation remains contained, we could see some recovery in the Rupee. Traders will take cues from India’s trade deficit and US retail sales data. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 83.20 to Rs 83.80.

Sensex Today | BSE Information Technology index shed 1.7 percent dragged by Sasken Technologies, Tanla Platforms, Datamatics Global Services

Q4 total volumes up 11.24% at 12.44 lakh TEUs versus 11.19 lakh TEUs, YoY

Q4 domestics volumes up 16.05% at 3.10 lakh TEUs versus 2.67 lakh TEUs, YoY

March exports at USD 41.68 billion versus USD 41.40 billion, MoM

March imports at USD 57.28 billion versus USD 60.11 billion, MoM

March trade deficit at USD 15.60 billion versus USD 18.70 billion, MoM

Sensex Today | BSE Telecom index shed 0.5 percent dragged by Avantel, HFCL, OnMobile Global

-Buy call, target raised to Rs 8,400 per share
-Company to acquire a majority stake in transsion holdings’ India Mobile Assembly unit
-Expect company to more than double its revenue over the next two years
-Profit growth to be higher than revenue growth

In FY2024, despite significant earnings downgrades ranging from +4% to -68%, the market clung to hopes of soaring profitability in the cement sector. Kotak Institutional Equities said it remained perplexed by this ongoing optimism and the Street's insistence on using inflated valuation multiples. As FY2025 began with renewed expectations, Kotak urged for a more realistic assessment of the sector, highlighting the inherent challenges of the capex-intensive, commodity nature of the business. Despite the Street's fixation on earnings growth, Kotak emphasized the need to consider lower free cash flow relative to profits due to the constant need for additional capital investment in the sector. They argued that cement stocks should be valued at half of their current multiples based on fundamental principles, given their low asset turnover ratio and modest returns on equity.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | National Bank of Kuwait (NBK) expands partnership with Intellect Global Transaction Banking (iGTB) for a comprehensive eMACH.ai digital transformation

-Overweight call, target Rs 4,350 per share
-Find Q4 results & management commentary mixed
-Margin surprise lifts our EPS estimates 2 percent
-Commentary on limited visibility into near-term revenue growth trends could be a multiple drag
-International revenue growth in Q4 was subdued, but Indian business helped overall growth
-Management expects revenue growth in FY25 to be better than in FY24
-Discretionary spending climate still remains volatile, so predictability is lacking
-Strong exit margin supports a better outlook for FY25

Sensex Today | BSE Realty index fell 0.55 percent dragged by Mahindra Lifespace Developers, Swan Energy, Sobha

Brigade Enterprises has entered into a Joint Development Agreement (JDA) with Agni Estates & Foundations Pvt Ltd to develop Brigade Tech Boulevard, a ‘Grade A’ office space on Pallavaram-Thoraipakkam Radial Road, in Chennai. With an investment of around ₹400 crores, the project will have a leasable area of 8.36 lakh sft. spread across two towers.

-Initiate sell, target Rs 570 per share
-Company offers electronics manufacturing services for mission-critical applications
-Company offers EMS in industries such as aerospace, defense, medical tech & industrials
-Expect company to see strong revenue growth over FY23-26
-Strong revenue growth driven by a robust order book
-Weakening margin profile, deteriorating working capital cycle keep us cautious

Sensex Today | Nifty Healthcare index shed 1.4 percent dragged by Laurus Lab, Dr Lal PathLab, Biocon

Gold prices firmed on Monday, hovering near record-high levels hit in the previous session, as traders kept a close eye on developments surrounding the Middle East conflict, prompting safe-haven buying of assets such as bullion.

Spot gold was up 0.5% at $2,353.64 per ounce, after hitting an all-time high of $2,431.29 on Friday. U.S. gold futures was steady at $2,370.

Sensex Today | BSE Auto index slipped 0.7 percent dragged by Ashok Leyland, Tube Investments, Tata Motors

-Buy call, target Rs 4,540 per share
-Profit beat for Q4FY24, led by strong margin expansion
-Revenue was a tad lower than expected
-Deal wins strong with BBR At 1.8x
-However, management remained non-committal on recovery pace for H1FY25
-Company continues to offer sector-leading earnings resilience & remains preferred stock

-Buy call, target Rs 4,700 per share
-Ends FY24 on a good note with remarkable deal wins
-Positive margin is a surprise in Q4
-Despite all positive, management appeared to be holding back on calling out growth revival
-Believe it is being cautious of potential risk of deal deferments, slippages etc
-Nonetheless, conversion of large deal wins into revenue is a matter of time
-Should lead its peers in revenue growth along with improvement in margin in FY25

As per the Business Transfer Agreement, Reliance Power has concluded the transfer of its 45 MW wind power project at Vashpet, Maharashtra to JSW Renewable Energy (Coated), for Rs 132.39 crore.

Sensex Today | BSE Midcap index fell 1 percent dragged by Castrol India, SJVN, Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency

Sensex Today | Nifty FMCG index shed 1 percent dragged by United Spirits, Tata Consumer, HUL

-Reduce call, target Rs 3,250 per share
-Q4 a mixed bag; deal wins robust
-Modest miss in growth, strong beat in margins
-Order booking was robust; near-term growth visibility remains low
-Weak headcount addition persists, as attrition continues to moderate

-Hold call, target Rs 4,030 per share
-Q4 beat estimates, but demand pressures persist
-Despite strong deal bookings, management commentary was cautious
-Continued headcount decline & sharp reduction in subcontractors do not offer comfort
-Margin have limited scope to expand further
-Expect TCS to deliver 6.6 percent CAGR in CC revenues & 9 percent EPS CAGR over FY24-26
-Premium valuation limits upside

Lemon Tree Hotels launched Tigerland Safari - A Lemon Tree Resort, in Chitwan, Nepal. This is the second property of the company in Nepal, after Lemon Tree Premier launched in Kathmandu, earlier this month.

-Buy call, target Rs 4,350 per share
-Increasing probability of a double-digit earnings growth in FY25
-Continue to forecast 8 percent revenue growth for TCS in FY25
-Exit margin suggest set up for a double-digit EBIT/EPS growth in FY25
-Company believes there is better visibility now than a quarter ago
-Company expects to see growth in near term, with better FY25 than FY24

Sensex Today | Market at 1 PM

The Sensex was down 560.44 points or 0.75 percent at 73,684.46, and the Nifty was down 166.50 points or 0.74 percent at 22,352.90. About 756 shares advanced, 2584 shares declined, and 105 shares unchanged.

Sensex Today | Nifty metal index up 0.3 percent supported by Nalco, Hindalco, NMDC

In line with the expectations, WPI inflation rose to 0.5% in March, continuing in the positive territory for the fifth consecutive month. While both fuel and power and manufactured product categories continued in deflation, an uptick in food price inflation led to a higher overall print.

With the fading of a supportive base, it is anticipated that the WPI inflation will edge up in the upcoming months. The recent increase in global commodity prices, particularly driven by higher Brent crude prices and a rise in industrial metal prices, is expected to add to upward pressures on WPI. However, it's worth noting that expectations of a normal monsoon with waning El Nino conditions and a recovery in rabi sowing paint a positive outlook for agricultural production and, consequently, food inflation.

This is anticipated to cushion the WPI prints to a certain extent. Nonetheless, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain significant variables to monitor closely. We expect WPI inflation to average around 3% in FY25.

Ami Organics has received approval from the board of directors for raising of funds up to Rs 500 crore through issuance of equity shares or other eligible securities by way of a qualified institutions placement (QIP).

-Overweight call, target raised to Rs 485 per share from Rs 373 per share
-Company’s share price could rise significantly over the next ten years
-Company can become a leading player in battery cell localisation
-Government support for Made In India EVs could play in company’s favour
-Strong auto & industrial customer tie-ups, early mover advantage could play in company’s favour
-Hyundai/Kia contract validates capabilities; likely a multi-year contract

The escalation in the potential conflict between Iran & Israel is a serious development and will likely adversely impact oil pricing. The Indian markets will be pressured over the short term as well. However, the Indian economy’s strong fundamentals and growth trajectory remain firmly in place over the long term.

The board of directors of IIFL Finance will be meeting on April 17 to consider the specific terms of the rights issue, such as rights issue price and related payment mechanism, rights entitlement ratio, the record date and timing of the rights issue. In March, the board had approved fund raising up to Rs 1,500 crore via rights issue.

Sensex Today | Nifty Bank index fell 1 percent dragged by Bandhan Bank, Su Small Finance Bank, ICICI Bank

-Upgrade to overweight, target raised to Rs 4,500 from Rs 4,000 per share
-Q4 print surprised positively on margins & signings
-QoQ CC revenue growth of 1.1 percent was broadly in-line
-Margin expansion led by lower subcons, improved utilisation & productivity
-Deal signings at the highest ever
-TTM book-to-bill at 1.5x, TCS is likely to outpace all large IT services peers in FY25
-Believe company is a cross-cycle champion, will benefit from cost takeout deals in short term
-Will benefit from discretionary digital transformation deals in medium term
A $900 million AI/GenAI pipeline (up 2x) appears promising

Sensex Today | BSE Capital Goods index shed 0.7 percent dragged by GMR Airports, Suzlon Energy, Rail Vikas Nigam

The dollar steadied on Monday, holding its biggest weekly gain since 2022, as escalating conflict in the Middle East and the prospect of stubbornly high U.S. interest rates gave support.

The dollar went up 1.6% against a basket of six major currencies last week after a small but unnerving upside surprise in U.S. inflation cast doubt over bets on U.S. rate cuts, while European policymakers signalled a cut within a few months.

It made a five-month top on the euro on Friday and traded near those levels early in the Asia day, buying a euro for $1.0655.

The yen was the main loser on Monday, marking a 34-year low at 153.85 to the dollar.

FPEL Ujwal has issued equity shares to new offtakers and converted its existing optionally convertible debentures (OCDs) into equity shares. As a result of these transactions, Wipro’s shareholding in FPEL has diluted from 9.95% to 7.07% with effect from April 11.

In September 2023, Wipro had signed a definitive agreement to subscribe for 9.95% equity share capital in FPEL Ujwal. The transaction was completed on October 10, 2023.

Sensex Today | Market at 11 AM

The Sensex was down 389.13 points or 0.52 percent at 73,855.77, and the Nifty was down 106.90 points or 0.47 percent at 22,412.50. About 696 shares advanced, 2560 shares declined, and 118 shares unchanged.

Aster DM Healthcare has declared a special dividend of Rs 118 per share after the receipt of proceeds from the sale of the GCC business and redemption of redeemable preference shares issued to the company by Affinity Holdings, a wholly owned material subsidiary of the company.

Sensex Today | BSE Smallcap index down 1 percent dragged by Welspun Specialty Solutions, Sun Pharma Advanced Research Company, HLV

Mphasis has signed a multi-year global strategic collaboration agreement (SCA) with Amazon Web Services (AWS). The collaboration will enable the launch of Gen AI Foundry, led by Mphasis.AI, for the financial services industry.

Oil prices fell during trade on Monday, as market participants dialled back risk premiums following Iran's attack on Israel late on Saturday which the Israeli government said caused limited damage.

Brent futures for June delivery fell 23 cents, or 0.2%, to $90.22 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for May delivery were down 29 cents, or 0.3%, at $85.37 a barrel.