Closing Bell: Sensex, Nifty end flat amid volatility; mid, smallcaps shine

Indian equity indices ended on a flat note in a highly volatile session on July 11. At close, the Sensex was down 27.43 points or 0.03 percent at 79,897.34, and the Nifty was down 8.50 points or 0.03 percent at 24,316.

We wrap up today's edition of the Moneycontrol live market blog, and will be back tomorrow morning with all the latest updates and alerts. Please visit https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/global-indices for all the global market action.

The Nifty remained volatile throughout the day before closing flat. In the near term, the Nifty might trade sideways, with 24,150 and 24,400 acting as the key levels. A decisive fall below 24,150 might trigger panic in the market, while a decisive move above 24,400 might induce a rally towards 24,650.

The Bank Nifty remained rangebound during the day. The index is trading near a crucial support zone of 52,000-51,800. If it manages to hold this level, it could witness a pullback rally towards 52,500. A sustained move above 52,500 will open up the gates for 53,000. However, if it fails to hold the support at 51,800, it could decline further towards the 51,300-51,000 zone.

After early volatility and a sharp fall thereafter, markets recouped most of its losses to end marginally lower at close on selective profit-taking despite optimism in global equities. We have already seen most of the rally part before the budget, hence investors would be cautiously optimistic and may take selective bets over the next few weeks.

Nifty witnessed a volatile day of trade today. It opened in the positive and witnessed a sharp fall. It recovered during the second half to close marginally in the red down 8 points. On the daily charts we can observe that dips towards the lower boundary 24100 are being bought into suggesting strong support at 24150 – 24100 zone. Going ahead we expect the range bound price action to continue. Ideally dips towards, support zone should be used as a buying opportunity.

Bank Nifty also corrected intraday towards support zone 52000 – 51900 and as the day progressed it recovered to close with gains of ~81 points. Bank Nifty weekly PCR improved from 0.67 to 0.81 implying puts being written during the fall today and thus strong support base being built around 52000 levels. Thus, a crucial support base is placed in the zone 52000 – 51900 and only a breach below this zone shall lead to further weakness. Until then the rangebound price action with bullish bias between 53500 – 52000 is likely to continue.

The main indices are trading in a narrow range, struggling to justify its premium valuation ahead of the Q1 earnings season, which is forecast to be subdued. However, the broader market is exhibiting marginal momentum, led by a shift in FIIs inflow and budget expectations. Attention is now focused on the US inflation data, which is estimated to moderate and positively influence Fed's interest rate decisions.

Opening gains did not last long as the Index quickly erased all its gains to retest its previous day's lower levels. In the mid-session, select heavyweights helped the Index to recover to end the weekly expiry trade at 24,315.95 with a marginal loss of 8.50 points.

As far as sectors are concerned, Media was the top gainer followed by FMCG while Realty was the major loser by ending the trade with a loss of 1.49%. Mid and Smallcaps managed to hold their opening gains and outperformed the Benchmark Index.

Our view on the index remains the same, i.e. as long as the index holds a level of 24,200 uptrend will remain intact and on the higher side, 24,460 will be a critical hurdle.

Indian rupee closed marginally lower at 83.56 per dollar on Thursday versus Friday's close of 83.53.

Indian equity indices ended on a flat note in a highly volatile session on July 11.

At close, the Sensex was down 27.43 points or 0.03 percent at 79,897.34, and the Nifty was down 8.50 points or 0.03 percent at 24,316.00. About 1966 shares advanced, 1427 shares declined, and 89 shares unchanged.

Top Nifty gained were BPCL, Coal India, ONGC, ITC and Tata Motors, while losers were Tata Consumer Products, Bajaj Finance, Divis Labs, M&M and NTPC.

Among sectors, realty index down 1.5 percent, and pharma index down 0.6 percent, while media and oil & gas index up 1 percent each.

The BSE midcap index rose 0.3 percent while the smallcap index added 0.6 percent.

Sensex Today | BSE Smallcap index up 0.6%; Shipping Corporation, HPL Electric, Shreyas Shipping

#1 Q1 primary sales up 38%
#2 Market share up from 14.4% in Q1 FY24 to ~16.1% in Q1FY25

#1 Raises target multiple to 19x (from 14x) to factor in aggressive capacity expansion
#2 Target raised to factor in entry into newer markets, above industry volume growth
#3 Target raised to factor in increased brownfield optionality, cost-optimisation measures
#4 Another round of inorganic expansion possible
#5 Lower heat consumption & higher share of green power to result in cost savings

Markets@3 | Sensex, Nifty off day's low

The Sensex was down 66.76 points or 0.08 percent at 79,858.01, and the Nifty was down 16.00 points or 0.07 percent at 24,308.50. About 1960 shares advanced, 1423 shares declined, and 86 shares unchanged.

#1 Jio's public listing looks possible in CY25
#2 Jio could list at USD 112 billion valuation, 7-15 percent upside to RIL
#3 Tariff move indicates focus on monetisation & subscriber market share gains
#4 Entire IPO could be an offer for sale by minority shareholders
#5 RIL could look to spin off Jio & list it after a price discovery
#6 Stock performance & less than majority holding in JFS indicate spin-off route for Jio
#7 Investors (domestic & foreign) appear to favour spin-off route for Jio
#8 Primary concern for investors is Holdco discount
#9 Holdco discount is of 20-50% in India & 50-70% for conglomerates in Korea & Taiwan
#10 Large retail investor mobilisation in the case of an IPO is another concern

BPCL plans 9-15 MMTPA refinery, to seek overseas partner: Official

Yesterday, the Fed Chair Powell, in his testimony to the House Financial Services, struck a cautious tone yet again. He said that while the Fed will not wait for the US inflation to hit 2% to cut rates, the Central Bank wants to ensure that the inflation will hit the Fed's target of 2% before they begin slashing rates. He called the monetary policy restrictive, though he acknowledged that the present policy is probably not too tight as neutral rates might have moved up.

Gold closed with a gain of 0.32% at $2371. It is trading at $2381, up 0.32% presently.

Today's US CPI inflation data will be quite crucial for the metal. Lack of further progress on inflation cooling will lead to a sharp decline, though triggering of Sahm's rule, as the US unemployment rate hit 4.1% in June, is going to limit the downside to some extent. Overall, as the US job market crumbles, buying the dips will be the preferred strategy now. Support is at $2342. Resistance is at $2400/$2450.

The key themes in the upcoming budget would be centered around fiscal prudence, capex spending to help create jobs and targeted social sector spending, according to international brokerage Morgan Stanley.

The brokerage said it is likely that the central government will retain a 5.1 percent fiscal deficit target, in line with the interim budget. This puts the government on track to achieve the target of 4.5 percent of GDP by F2026.

One of the key reasons is the larger-than-expected transfer of surplus from the RBI. The transfer will help the government maintain the momentum on capex expenditure and increase targeted welfare spending, per Morgan Stanley. "In this context, we see the possibility of a slightly lower fiscal deficit target (tad below 5.1% of GDP) given the support from tax and non-tax revenues," said the brokerage. Read More

Volumes in the counter surge as 67 lakh shares changed hands so far, higher than the one-month daily traded average of 47 lakh shares. The stock has already delivered nearly 120 percent gains in the year so far.

Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd, the telecom unit of Reliance Industries Ltd, could be headed for a mega IPO in 2025, with a potential valuation of more than Rs 9.3 lakh crore, a Jefferies note said.

Jio 'could list at $112 billion valuation' and add '7-15 percent upside' to the Reliance Industries share price, Jefferies said in the note on July 11.

The brokerage maintained a 'buy' rating on the RIL stock, with a target price of Rs 3,580 per share. This implies an upside of more than 13 percent to the last closing price of Rs 3,164. RIL's share price has surged more than 22 percent since January, outperforming the Nifty 50, which gained 12 percent. Read More

Shares of Shalby Limited advanced after the company announced a 30-year lease for running the Asha Parekh Hospital in Santacruz, Mumbai.

In a filing on Wednesday, Shalby informed the exchanges that the Charity Commissioner of Mumbai approved an application submitted in November 2023. The approval grants Shalby a 30-year lease on the immovable property of Asha Parekh Hospital, also known as Smt Bhikhubai Chandulal Jalundwala General Hospital (BCJ), in Santacruz.

The speciality chain hospital also added that the company will execute a lease agreement with the trust and obtain necessary approvals and permissions for the construction of over 175 bedded new hospital facility at Santacruz.

Indian Rupee declined by 0.08% today on weak tone in the domestic markets and a recovery in crude oil prices. The domestic indices fell for the second consecutive session after hitting record highs on Tuesday. However, FII inflows and a soft tone in the US Dollar cushioned the downside. US Dollar declined as Fed Chair Jerome Powell was dovish, rising expectations of a rate cut by the Fed in September.

We expect Rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on profit booking in the domestic market which may result in FII outflows. Elevated crude oil prices may also weigh on the Rupee. However, soft US Dollar and positive Asian currencies may support the Rupee at lower levels. Traders may take cues from inflation and weekly unemployment claims data from the US today. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 83.35 to Rs 83.80.

Markets@2 | Sensex, Nifty recover, trade flat

The Sensex was down 73.87 points or 0.09 percent at 79,850.90, and the Nifty was down 10.40 points or 0.04 percent at 24,314.10. About 1992 shares advanced, 1387 shares declined, and 69 shares unchanged.

Sensex Today | Nifty recovers 120 points from day's low

The company has received additional new Export Orders worth of Rs 60 crores for manufacturing of lab-grown diamond studded gold jewellery. With this order, the Company has aggregate booked order for manufacturing of diamond studded gold jewellery is of Rs.150 crores.

#1 Capacity expansion to drive next leg of growth; Novelis to witness further margin gains
#2 For FY25, management expects to incur a capex of Rs 6,000 crore in India for mines expansion and Rs 6,000 crore in India for alumina refinery, FRP-II expansion
#3 Key Risks: Any further extension in capex timeline and an increase in capex, will add pressure on cash flow

Sesnex Today | Realty index underperforms other sectoral indices 

#1 See public listing on Jio in CY25 with valuation seen at $112 billion

#2 Owner's stake in the recently spun-off Jio Fin was 45.8% on listing and the strong performance of stock prices of RIL & Jio Fin since the event

#3 Less than majority stake of the owners in Jio Fin, may tilt the owner to adopt the spin-off route for Jio

#1 Company announced capacity expansion for cables with an investment outlay of Rs 380 crore
#2 Capacity expansion for cables could generate an incremental topline of Rs 1,500 crore
#3 The expansion step in right direction given strong demand tailwinds in cables

Shares of Glenmark Life Sciences slumped as much as nearly 4 percent on July 11, a day after Glenmark Pharma's board greenlit the company's plans to offload a 7.84 percent stake in the former through an offer for sale.

With this OFS, Glenmark Pharma will completely exit Glenmark Life Sciences. The floor price for the OFS is fixed at Rs 810 per share, representing a 7.5 percent discount to the previous closing price of Glenmark Life Sciences. Kotak Securities Limited will be the broker for the OFS. Read More

Sensex Today | Nifty Realty index down 1.6%; Brigade Enterprises, Prestige Estate, Godrej Properties

#1 Net profit down 6.5 percent at Rs 184.1 crore Vs Rs 196.9 crore, QoQ
#2 Revenue up 2.3 percent at Rs 926.5 crore Vs Rs 905.9 crore, QoQ
#3 EBIT down 3.6 percent at Rs 225.3 crore Vs Rs 233.7 crore, QoQ
#4 Margin at 24.3 percent Vs 25.8 percent, QoQ

The company's board approved the sale and transfer of two undertakings. Its hydro business will be sold to GE Power Electronics (India) Private Limited, while the gas power business will be sold to GE Renewable Energy Technologies Private Limited. Both transactions will be executed as a slump sale.

#1 Net Revenue up 9.7 percent at Rs 129.6 crore Vs Rs 118.2 crore, YoY
#2 Own brands revenue up 2.7 percent at Rs 104.4 crore Vs Rs 101.6 crore, YoY
#3 Wine tourism revenue down 2.5 percent at Rs 11.3 crore Vs Rs 11.5 crore, YoY

Sensex Today | Shipping stocks in focus

#1 Net loss at Rs 62 crore vs loss of Rs 32.4 crore, YoY
#2 Revenue down 12% at Rs 879 crore vs Rs 999 crore, YoY
#3 EBITDA down 32.3% at Rs 70.9 crore vs Rs 105 crore, YoY
#4 Margin at 8% vs 10.5%, YoY

Stock Market LIVE Updates | BSE Sensex recovers 240 points from day's low

The company and its subsidiaries received final approval from the USFDA to market Sacubitril and Valsartan Tablets. This combination drug treats chronic heart failure in adults, reducing the risk of death and hospitalization. The tablets will be manufactured in Ahmedabad, India.

Sensex Today | Nifty falls 130 points from day's high

The lender raised Rs 10,000 crores through its sixth infrastructure bond issuance at a coupon rate of 7.36 percent. The proceeds will be used to enhance long-term funding for infrastructure and affordable housing.

Sensex Today | BSE Energy index gains 1%; MRPL, HOEC, Deep Industries among major gainers

IRB Infra and IRB Infrastructure Trust reported an increase in toll revenue for June 2024 by 35 percent to Rs 517 crores. In Q1FY25, their combined toll revenue surged to Rs 1,556 crores, a 32 percent rise compared to Rs 1,183 crores in Q1FY24.

The company entered into a share purchase agreement with Milindpra Castings Private Limited, a newly incorporated company in the metal casting and foundry industry. Under this agreement, the company will acquire 7,033 shares of Milindpra Castings for a total consideration of Rs 70,330, priced at Rs 10 per share.

Sensex Today | BSE Bank index down 0.7%; ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank among major losers

Markets@12 | Sensex, Nifty trade lower

The Sensex was down 358.78 points or 0.45 percent at 79,565.99, and the Nifty was down 100.20 points or 0.41 percent at 24,224.30. About 1952 shares advanced, 1341 shares declined, and 98 shares unchanged.

#1 Raises target multiple to 19x (from 14x) to factor in aggressive capacity expansion
#2 Target raised to factor in entry into newer markets, above industry volume growth
#3 Target raised to factor in increased brownfield optionality, cost-optimisation measures
#4 Another round of inorganic expansion possible
#5 Lower heat consumption & higher share of green power to result in cost savings

The upcoming budget aims to balance growth while funding alliance commitments, we anticipate the government will likely maintain its tax and non-debt capital receipt projections (including disinvestment) as outlined in the Interim Budget of February 2024. Anticipation is building across multiple factors, including industries, farming communities, taxpayers, and the middle class, as they await the upcoming announcement.

An ambitious 100-day plan is likely which includes the awarding of significant thermal power and transmission line contracts for energy security and transition. This plan also features a new hydro policy to promote carbon-free energy, subsidies for battery storage, and India’s first offshore wind concession.

There are also expectations on enhancements and tax reliefs, including a notable proposal to increase the 80C deduction limit from Rs 150,000 to Rs 200,000 under the old tax regime, a revision that was last made in 2014.

The Union Government could utilize INR 500 billion to offer additional incentives for taxpayers to switch to the new tax regime and to enhance housing schemes or various other programs.

Sensex Today | Nifty Media index rises 1%; Sun TV Network, DB Corp, PVR Inox among major gainers

Indegene today announced a strategic collaboration with Microsoft to empower global life sciences companies to scale up the adoption of purpose-built, enterprise-grade Generative AI (GenAI) services, thereby driving faster innovation at scale.

Indegene and Microsoft have committed to developing resources in highly specialized and skilled medical and technology tools to co-innovate generative AI services and workflows across commercial, medical, regulatory, and clinical functions.

First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC has denied reports that it is evaluating any possible offer for a stake in YES Bank, Reuters reported on July 11.

Yesterday, Bloomberg reported that First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC is among potential suitors for a roughly $5 billion stake in the Indian bank. The Middle Eastern lender was weighing a bid for as much as a 51 percent stake in Yes Bank, the report said citing sources. (More read)

Shares of GE Power India recovered opening losses and rose 7 percent on July 11 after the company's board approved the sale of hydro and gas power business undertakings.

The board of directors of GE Power India at its meeting held on July 10, 2024, has approved the sale and transfer of hydro business undertaking of the company comprising the business of developing, designing, engineering, marketing, manufacturing, selling, supplying, transporting, assembling, installing and servicing hydro turbines, generators and associated auxiliaries (including balance of plant) and systems for hydroelectric power stations (including pumped storage plants) to GE Power Electronics (India).

The board approved to sell gas power business undertaking also consists of: (a) providing project management, application and detailed engineering services for regional and global projects; and (b) providing maintenance services to the existing fleet of gas power plants to GE Renewable Energy Technologies.

In response to global market weaknesses and the lack of a clear timeframe for a US Federal Reserve rate cut in 2024 as indicated by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, the Indian stock market experienced its worst session since June 4, 2024.

From a technical perspective, Nifty's 24,200 level is a critical support point. As long as Nifty remains above this threshold, the outlook remains bullish; below it, the sentiment turns bearish. For today's weekly expiry, there is significant call writing at the ATM and OTM strikes, indicating a limited upside potential. Specifically, the 24,500 call strike shows a notable open interest (OI) of approximately 96 lakhs shares, while the 24,200 put strike has a substantial OI of around 60 lakhs shares, suggesting strong support at this level.

In contrast, Bank Nifty continues to be a weak performer, slipping further as all but two of its constituents closed in the red. Looking forward, the 52,000 level is expected to act as immediate support, whereas the 52,500 level is anticipated to serve as a resistance area.

Markets@11 | Sensex down 320 pts, Nifty below 24250

The Sensex was down 321.72 points or 0.40 percent at 79,603.05, and the Nifty was down 83.80 points or 0.34 percent at 24,240.70. About 1886 shares advanced, 1353 shares declined, and 91 shares unchanged.

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) is set to kick off the Q1 FY25 results season, with a promising revenue boost, thanks to a perfect storm of deal ramp-ups, extended working days, favorable cross-currency trends, and a brightening macroeconomic horizon. According to estimates from 10 brokerage firms compiled by Moneycontrol, TCS’s revenue is anticipated to rise 1.6 percent quarter-on-quarter to Rs 62,190 crore in Q1 FY25.

The momentum from the BSNL deal is expected to bolster TCS's growth, according to various research reports. In April, TCS announced its plan to set up large data centres across four regions of the country as part of a Rs 15,000-crore deal with Bharat Sanchar Nigam.

TCS is scheduled to announce its earnings for the June quarter, on July 11. Despite the revenue uptick, TCS is forecasted to face a 3.5 percent dip in net profit for Q1 FY25, settling at approximately Rs 11,999 crore. Read More

Brokerages have maintained a positive outlook on Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) despite the recent price cut on the XUV 700. Both Morgan Stanley and Investec see the price reduction as a strategic move that is unlikely to have a significant negative impact on the company’s long-term performance.

Investec has maintained its 'Buy' rating on M&M with a target price of Rs 3,100 and Morgan Stanley has retained its 'Overweight' call with a target price of Rs 3,049. Read More

Sensex Today |Nifty Pharma index down 0.7%; Aurobindo Pharma, Sun Pharma, Biocon among major losers

YES Securities has commenced coverage on footwear companies, Metro Brands Ltd, Campus Activewear Ltd, and Bata India Ltd. They recommend Metro Brands with a target price of Rs 1385 per share, Campus Activewear with a target price of Rs 338 per share, and rate Bata India as neutral with a target price of Rs 1574 per share.

The brokerage highlighted Metro Brands's extensive product and brand portfolio, expanded distribution network, asset-light business model, and upcoming offerings in the S&A segment. Valuing the company at a P/E multiple of 70x based on FY26E EPS, YES Securities noted Metro Brands' robust operating margins of approximately 27-30% over the past six years, despite challenges in FY21 due to the pandemic. Read More

Shares of Ambey Laboratories made a positive start to its stock market debut on July 11 after listing at Rs 85, a premium of 25 percent over the issue price of Rs 68 on the NSE SME platform.

The Rs 44.68-crore public offer, which is a mix of fresh issue and an offer for sale, witnessed heightened investor interest over three days after the IPO was subscribed a massive 172.67 times. NIIs or non-institutional investors were the front runners, buying 324 times their allotted quota. Retail investors followed, picking over 194 times the portion reserved while qualified institutional buyers (QIBs) bought 62 times.

Shares of YES Bank jumped over 7 percent intrday after global ratings agency Moody's revised its outlook to 'positive' from 'stable' on hopes of improvement in the lender's depositor base and lending franchise.

The positive outlook takes into account the improvement in bank's asset quality and capitalisation over the past 2-3 years.

So far this year, the stock of YES Bank has rallied over 24 percent, outperforming benchmark Nifty 50 index that rose by 11 percent during the same period. Earlier, YES Bank had touched 52-week high of Rs 32 apiece on February 9, 2024.

Sensex Today | Nifty Bank index down 0.5%; HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank top drag

Shares of Ambuja Cements soared over 3 percent on July 11 after brokerage firm Nomura double upgraded the cement manufacturer to a 'buy' rating, factoring in the company's aggressive capacity expansion.

Along with this upgrade, the brokerage firm has raised its price target for Ambuja's stock from Rs 500 to Rs 780, a significant increase of nearly 56 percent.

Nomura attributed this sharp rise in the price target to Ambuja's entry into newer markets and its industry-leading volume growth. Read More

Both Asian Paints and Berger Paints have confirmed price hike of up to one percent across most of their portfolios, thus brightening business prospects for them and prompting other players who may follow suit.

With tightening competition in the paints space after Aditya Birla-led Birla Opus' entry, price hikes are likely to assist incumbents preserve margins and pave the way for premium offerings, Nuvama Institutional Equities said.

The rise in prices will give Asian Paints and Berger Paints, along with any peer that also bumps up its prices, further headroom for increased A&P spends and brand investments. Read More

#1 May see some subdued moves as we head into budget
#2 F&O sizing restrictions look justified
#3 Trimmed positions in stocks where valuations had reached 70-80 P/E
#4 Small price hike in paints sector may not mean much
#5 Tax increase in Budget may make India less attractive on a post-tax basis
#6 If equity taxes come through, relative beneficiaries will be banks

State Bank of India - India's largest lender - has once again raised Rs 10,000 crore through AAA-rated infrastructure bond issue.

The coupon rate of SBI's sixth bond issue was 7.36 percent, for a tenor of 15 years. The funds raised through the bond issue will be used to fund infrastructure and affordable housing.

Sensex Today | BSE metal index up nearly 1%; Coal India, Tata Steel, Hindustan Zinc among major gainers

Keystone Realtors has entered into a deed of conveyance for acquisition of land admeasuring ~88 acres, situated at Kasara, Thane, Maharashtra. The total consideration is Rs 91 crore which will be payable in a staggered manner up to February 2026 from the date of execution of the deed of conveyance.

HPL Electric & Power has received work orders/letter of award of Rs 2100.71 crores (inclusive of tax) from regular leading customers for the supply of smart meters in the normal course of business, which is to be executed as per the terms & conditions of Letter of Award (LoA)/work orders.