Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities
On Monday, the benchmark index Nifty opened with a sharp gap-down as the sudden spike in global crude oil prices weighed heavily on overall market sentiment. Brent crude has rallied steeply over the last two sessions amid renewed geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. Prices briefly touched $116 per barrel, which was the highest level since June 2022 before witnessing some intraday cooling. This surge heightened global risk aversion and immediately spilled over into domestic equities.
Following the weak open, the Nifty slid to an intraday low of 23697, but subsequently staged a noteworthy pullback of over 331 points, indicating buying interest at lower levels. The index eventually closed above the 24000 mark, ending the session with a 1.73% decline. The index formed a bullish candle with a long lower shadow on daily scale, reflects intraday recovery; however, the broader trend remains bearish, especially with the index trading more than 4% below its 200 day EMA, signalling continued pressure.
Within the Nifty constituents, Wipro and Reliance Industries emerged as the top gainers, while TMPV and UltraTech Cement were the major laggards. Sectorally, except for Nifty IT, all other indices ended deep in the red, with Nifty PSU Bank and Nifty Auto recording the sharpest losses. Adding to the nervousness, India VIX surged over 17%, marking its highest close since June 2024, underscoring elevated market volatility.
The broader markets mirrored the benchmark’s weakness, with Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 opening sharply lower. Although both indices recovered partially from the lows, they still closed in negative territory. Market breadth remained weak, with the Advance/Decline ratio tilted heavily toward decliners as 441 stocks from the Nifty 500 universe ended in the red, highlighting broad-based selling pressure.
Nifty View
Going ahead, the 23880–23850 zone remains a key support for Nifty. A sustained break below 23850 may revive selling pressure and drag the index toward 23700. On the upside, the 24130–24150 zone will act as the immediate resistance, and only a breakout above this band may extend the recovery.
Bank Nifty View
The Bank Nifty also opened with a sharp gap down and slipped to an intraday low of 55270, after which it staged a recovery of more than 700 points. The index eventually closed above the 56000 mark, ending the session with a loss of over 3%, and formed a small bodied candle with a long lower shadow, indicating buying interest at lower levels.
Notably, the index has fallen below its 200 day EMA for the first time since April 2025, signalling a shift in the medium term trend. The daily RSI at 24.88, which was lowest reading since January 2025.
Going forward, the 55600–55500 zone will act as the immediate support. A sustained break below 55500 may extend the decline towards 54900, followed by 54400. On the upside, the 56500–56600 band will remain the crucial resistance zone, and only a breakout above this level may trigger a meaningful recovery.