Closing Bell: Nifty below 24,200, Sensex falls 663 pts; FMCG outperforms

Indian equity indices ended on weak note with Nifty below 25,250 on October 25. At close, the Sensex was down 662.87 points or 0.83 percent at 79,402.29, and the Nifty was down 218.60 points or 0.90 percent at 24,180.80.

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Markets continued its downward trajectory as broader selloff pulled down key benchmarks with Sensex ending below the crucial 80k mark. The dismal Q2 earnings so far has aggravated the investors’ woes while persistent FII selling continued to create havoc in the market. Despite the Chinese stimulus announcement, falling crude oil prices is an indication that major economies continue to feel the slowdown pinch.

Nifty opened on a flat note and witnessed a sharp correction today. It closed in the negative down ~219 points. On the daily charts we can observe that the Nifty after a one day pause has resumed its fall. It has reached 24000 – 24050 which coincides with a psychological support as well as the daily lower Bollinger band which shall restrict a sharp decline from heron. The trend remains negative, however there can be a pullback towards 24350 towards key hourly moving averages which should be used as a selling opportunity. On the downside, 24000 is likely from short term perspective.

Bank Nifty witnessed a severe decline and closed down 744 points. The structure is weak and is now aligning with the broader market. On the downside we expect Bank Nifty to drift lower towards 49500 - 49400 from short term perspective.

The Nifty slipped below recent consolidation as the lack of follow-up buying attracted selling pressure in the market, decisively falling below 24350. The sentiment appears extremely weak, with pullbacks likely to be sold into.

Any rise toward 24300-24400 may be used to reduce long positions. Near-term support is placed at 24000; a break below this level could lead the index into a downtrend.

#1 Market falls for 4th straight week, longest losing streak since August 2023

#2 46 Of 50 nifty stocks record losses this week, stocks down up to 22 percent

#3 Mid & Small Cap indices post biggest weekly loss since December 2022

Markets resumed their downtrend after a two-day pause, shedding nearly 1%. Following a flat opening, Nifty gradually declined throughout the session, although a slight bounce in the last hour helped trim some losses. Ultimately, it closed at 24,180, down by 0.90%. Key sectors such as metals, autos, and energy were among the hardest hit, with broader indices also declining by almost 2% each.

The index’s movement reflects that bears are still in control, and a decisive break below 24,000 could worsen the outlook. In the event of a rebound, 24,500 will now serve as a strong resistance level. Traders should maintain a “sell on rise” strategy, as most sectors and broader indices remain under pressure. Focus should remain on earnings and Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) flows for further cues.

Indian rupee ended flat at 84.08 per dollar on Friday versus previous close of 84.07.

Indian equity indices ended on weak note with Nifty below 24,200 on October 25.

At close, the Sensex was down 662.87 points or 0.83 percent at 79,402.29, and the Nifty was down 218.60 points or 0.90 percent at 24,180.80. About 804 shares advanced, 2968 shares declined, and 80 shares unchanged.

IndusInd Bank, BPCL, Adani Enterprises, Shriram Finance, and M&M are among the top losers on the Nifty, while gainers are ITC, Sun Pharma, Britannia Industries, HUL and Axis Bank.

Among sectors, except FMCG (up 0.5 percent) all other indices ended in the red with auto, capital goods, metal, oil & gas, power, telecom, media down 1-2 percent.

BSE Midcap index shed 1.5 percent and smallcap index fell 2.4 percent.

I expect a good listing for Deepak Builders based on its grey market premium (GMP) of 24.63%, suggesting a listing price of around Rs 253, which would result in a gain of Rs 50 on its issue price of Rs 203. The strong subscription of 41.54 times further supports positive listing expectations. However, given the current market conditions, there is a possibility that it could dampen the expected gains slightly, so investors should remain cautious.

Post-listing, investors should evaluate their position based on the actual listing performance. While short-term gains appear promising, those with a long-term perspective may want to hold, especially considering Deepak Builders' strong fundamentals and high subscription, which could lead to further appreciation over time. However, given the volatile market, booking partial profits at listing could also be a prudent approach for risk-averse investors.

#1 Profit increases 4.3 percent to Rs 194.7 crore Vs Rs 186.7 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue falls 6.4 percent to Rs 2,134.6 crore Vs Rs 2,279.4 crore, YoY

#1 Loss stands at Rs 138.5 crore Vs profit at Rs 36.4 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue grows 20 percent to Rs 377 crore Vs Rs 314.5 crore, YoY

#3 Tax expenses at Rs 217.93 crore Vs Rs 8 crore, YoY

The Indian equity market is experiencing a sharp correction due to multiple factors. The primary driver is foreign institutional selling, driven by valuation concerns and the increased attractiveness of the Chinese market. Another major factor is disappointing earnings reports from Indian companies, especially in the consumption sector, which signal an economic slowdown, particularly in urban consumption. This slowdown is also impacting financial stocks. Additionally, we are now seeing selling pressure from many HNIs and retail investors, who haven’t experienced a correction of this depth for some time.

Nifty is likely to test its 200-DMA around the 23400 level, with a potential rebound expected after the October expiry. However, continued pressure is anticipated in the midcap and small-cap sectors. Investors should consider using this dip as an opportunity to buy quality largecap stocks, especially in the financial sector, where valuations remain attractive.

#1 Profit slips 0.6 percent to Rs 282.8 crore Vs Rs 284.5 crore, QoQ

#2 Revenue increases 7.7 percent to Rs 1,711.6 crore Vs Rs 1,589.6 crore, QoQ

#1 Profit grows 22.6 percent to Rs 470 crore Vs Rs 383 crorev

#2 Net interest income rises 1.2 percent to Rs 669 crore Vs Rs 661 crore, YoY

Gold futures are trading slightly lower on profit-booking after prices scaled past $2750 per ounce earlier in the week. However, the bullion is likely to close the week in positive, amid support from safe-demand, ETF buying, uncertain U.S. election outcome, and rising bets for aggressive rate cuts from global central banks.

On Chart... momentum looks sideways with resistance at 78500/ 78920, while on the downside support holds at 77700.

Enforcement Directorate officials conducted search activities at the company's office premises in Bengaluru and Chennai.

The search process has been completed without any material developments. The company has provided necessary clarifications or details sought by the officials to their satisfaction by extending full cooperation.

We can expect a strong listing for Waaree Energies, supported by its impressive grey market premium (GMP) of 103.79%. Based on this, the stock is likely to list around Rs 3,063, reflecting a significant gain of Rs 1,560 over the issue price of Rs 1,503. The IPO also received robust demand, with an overall subscription of 79.44 times, indicating strong investor interest.

Given the company's strong fundamentals, leadership in the solar energy sector, and the overwhelming subscription numbers, the expected listing price seems justified. However, investors should be mindful of market conditions post-listing, which can influence short-term price movements.

For those who receive an allotment, holding the stock for the long term could be a good strategy, considering Waaree Energies’ growth potential in the renewable energy space. However, investors with a short-term view may consider booking partial profits on listing day, especially if the stock sees a significant surge.

QIB – 0.00 times

NII – 0.06 times

Retail – 0.10 times

Employee Reserved – 0.30 times

Overall – 0.07 times

Capacit’e Infraprojects has received work orders worth Rs 1,203 crore (Excl. GST) from Signatureglobal (India) for construction of civil structure and Part MEP work for all towers & basements and all other ancillary buildings in their Group Housing Project namely, Titanium SPR (Phase-1 and 2) at Sector 71, Gurugram, Haryana.

The company has entered into definitive agreements for the conveyance or assignment of lease with Aethon Developers (a subsidiary of Runwal Developers) for the sale of its land parcel at Lower Parel, Mumbai, together with the building thereon, for Rs 726 crore.

Jubilant Pharma's subsidiary, Jubilant Pharma Holdings Inc., USA, has voluntarily prepaid a $25 million term loan, equivalent to Rs 210 crore, from its internal accruals on October 23. Jubilant Pharma is a wholly owned subsidiary of Jubilant Pharmova.

#1 Q2 was weak quarter; steering through near-term challenges

#2 Cut earnings estimate by 16.7 percent/8.7 percent for FY25/26, leading to an RoA/RoE of 1.6 percent/13.6 percent by FY26

33 NIM contracts sharply to 4.08 percent; MFI mix declines 149 bps to 9.2 percent of loans

#4 Progression on asset quality (MFI business) remains key near-term events to watch for

#5 RBI approval for a fresh term to MD & CEO remain key near-term events to watch for

Indian Rupee traded on a flat note on Friday as the domestic markets continued to slide for the fifth consecutive session and worries over FII outflows. However, potential RBI intervention and a decline in crude oil prices cushioned the downside. US Dollar softened despite better than expected economic data from the US.

We expect Rupee to trade with a negative bias on overall strength in the US Dollar and sustained FII outflows. However, softening of US treasury yields may support the Rupee at lower levels. Traders may take cues from durable goods orders which is expected weaker than the previous month. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 83.90 to Rs 84.30.

#1 Volume growth in India high, A&P spends, gaining market share in soaps were positives in Q2

#2 Margin improvement in international markets was a positive in Q2

33 Domestic margin pressure could have hurt H2 EBITDA growth

QIB – 0.00 times

NII – 0.05 times

Retail – 0.09 times

Employee Reserved – 0.26 times

Overall – 0.06 times

#1 Revenue At Rs265.6 Cr Vs Rs72.7 Cr (YoY)

#2 EBITDA up 95.6% At Rs66.1 Cr Vs Rs33.8 Cr (YoY)

#3 Margin At 24.9% Vs 46.5% (YoY)

#1 Revenue net profit Rs1.08 lakh cr, up 5.9% YoY

#2 Total costs Rs 1.08 lakh crore, up 12% YoY

#3 Other income Rs 167 cr down 2.3% YoY

#1 Revenue net profit Rs4580 cr, up 15% YoY

#2 Total costs Rs 3300 crore, up 7% YoY

#3 Other income Rs 167 cr down 2.3% YoY

#1 Revenue up 10.4% At Rs208.5 Cr Vs Rs188.9 Cr (YoY)

#2 EBITDA up 15.7% At Rs63.5 Cr Vs Rs55 Cr (YoY)

#3 Margin At 30.5% Vs 29.1% (YoY)

#1 Profit up 7.5% At Rs17 Cr Vs Rs16 Cr (YoY)

#2 Revenue up 6.8% At Rs198.5 Cr Vs Rs185.8 Cr (YoY)

#3 EBITDA down 14.6% At Rs8.2 Cr Vs Rs9.6 Cr (YoY)

#4 Margin At 4.1% Vs 5.2% (YoY)

#1 Net Profit down 25.8% At Rs91.6 Cr Vs Rs123.4 Cr (YoY)

#2 Revenue up 46.7% At Rs741.2 Cr Vs Rs505.3 Cr (YoY)

#3 EBITDA up 46% At Rs264.6 Cr Vs Rs181.2 Cr (YoY)

#4 Margin At 35.7% Vs 35.9% (YoY)

#1 Revenue up 17% YoY to Rs 1390 crore

#2 Total costs Rs 1240 crore, up 14% YoY

#1 Good show on volumes in Q2 but sharp contraction of margin

#2 Q2 below estimates, volume growth of high-single-digits in-line with estimates

#3 Expect pricing growth to be flattish to low-single digits over the near-term

#4 Company continues innovation, having launched ‘Colgate visible white purple’ & saw early good traction

#1 Profit plunges 26 percent to Rs 847.6 crore Vs Rs 1,141.6 crore, QoQ

#2 Revenue declines 3 percent to Rs 13,021.8 crore Vs Rs 13,415.1 crore, QoQ

#1 Profit surges 47.3 percent to Rs 360.1 crore Vs Rs 244.4 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue spikes 43.7 percent to Rs 571.3 crore Vs Rs 397.5 crore, YoY

The United States Food and Drug Administration (US FDA) issued FMD-145 copy of EIR for the sterile injectable line - Bortezomib for Injection 3.5 mg / vial (Lyophilised) for Oncology Formulation facility of Medicamen Biotech Limited located at Plot No. 84 & 85, Sector-6A, IIE, Sidcul, BHEL, Ranipur, Haridwar- 249403 based on the inspection concluded on April 26, 2024 and has now released Establishment Inspection Report (EIR).

#1 Q2 beat led by mobiles; IT hardware & components major long-term opportunity

#2 Raise revised estimate by 10 percent/8 percent/5 percent and EPS by 3-5 percent for FY25-27

33 Expect company to be a key beneficiary of strong traction from its mobile customers

#4 Expect company to produce 4 crore smartphones in FY27

#5 IT hardware should also start seeing traction with Dixon catering to top four customers

#6 Goverrnment’s focus on strict monitoring of imports should also help in traction for IT hardware

#7 Focus on component manufacturing will be a key margin tailwind, full impact to be visible from FY27

#1 Profit grows 23.5 percent to Rs 132.33 crore Vs Rs 107.2 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue increases 12 percent to Rs 2,116.72 crore Vs Rs 1,890 crore, YoY

#1 Revenue up 20.8% at USD 1,214 million versus USD 1,246 million, YoY

#2 EBITDA up 16% at USD 564 mn vs USD 620 mn, YoY

#3 EBITDA margin at 46.4% vs 49.8%, YoY

#1 Q2 below estimates on lower contribution from spot LNG

#2 Dahej expansion on track; management hopeful to conclude Qatar negotiation in 6 months

#3 Cut FY25/26 EPS by 7 percent/2 percent

Shapoorji Pallonji group-owned Afcons Infrastructure has mopped up Rs 1,621.5 crore from 80 institutional investors via anchor book on October 24. The Rs 5,430-crore initial share sale will hit Dalal Street on October 25.

The IPO is a combination of fresh issuance of Rs 1,250 crore by the company, and an offer-for-sale of Rs 4,180 crore worth shares by its promoter Goswami Infratech. The price band for the issue, which closes on October 29, has been fixed at Rs 440-463 per share.

The engineering and construction company in its filing to exchanges said it has finalised allocation of 3,50,21,597 equity shares to anchor investors at a price of Rs 463 per share.

#1 Microfinance loans led weakness in performance

#2 Adverse movements in loan growth, NIM and credit costs disappointed

#3 Cut EPS by 8.7-21.4 percent for FY25-27 to reflect lower loan growth & pressure on earnings metrics

#4 However, at 1.3x FY26 BVPs, company’s risk-to-reward ratio is favourable

#1 Key positives in Q2 came from net cigarette revenues

#2 Strong hotel business momentum, rebound in agri business

#3 Key negatives arose from weak home consumption, inflation in food inputs & tobacco leaf

#4 Overall weakness seen in paper segment

India’s largest stock exchange is awaiting clearance from the securities regulator to proceed with its public listing plans, according to Chief Executive Officer Ashish Kumar Chauhan. The National Stock Exchange of India Ltd., whose initial public offering has faced delays since it initial filing in 2016, needs approval from the Securities and Exchange Board of India to reapply, Chauhan said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Friday. READ MORE

Total income jumps to Rs 1,613 crore in Q2FY25 vs Rs 874 crore in Q2FY24

#1 Good sales performance in Q2 but margin pressured across segments Q2

#2 Cigarette volume grew 3 percent YoY versus estimate of 2.5 percent but margin contracted 145 bps YoY

#3 FMCG growth of 5.4 percent in-line but margin contracted 37 bps YoY

#4 Hotels hold up strong; paper sales improve but OPM hit further; agri surprises

#1 Managing returns/cash flow key amid low appetite to grow orders

#2 Supportive core earnings, but new order growth likely to weaken

#3 Market always rewards orders over core earnings for co

#4 Valuation discount to industrial incumbents provides valuation comfort

#1 Profit zooms 26.4 percent to Rs 186.6 crore Vs Rs 147.6 crore

#2 Revenue grows 10.3 percent to Rs 1,849.1 crore Vs Rs 1,675.7 crore

#3 EBIT jumps 15.8 percent to Rs 230.7 crore Vs Rs 199.2 crore

#4 Margin expands 60 bps to 12.5 percent Vs 11.9 percent

#5 Company declares interim dividend of Rs 12 per share for FY25

#6 Cyient acquires Abu Dhabi & Gulf Computer Est, and 27.3 percent stake in Azimuth AI, a fabless custom ASIC companyy

#1 Profit jumps 28 percent to Rs 106.1 crore Vs Rs 82.9 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue grows 28.3 percent to Rs 139.2 crore Vs Rs 108.5 crore, YoY

#3 EBITDA surges 30.5 percent to Rs 120.3 crore Vs Rs 92.2 crore, YoY

#4 Margin increases 140 bps to 86.4 percent Vs 85 percent, YoY

The Board has appointed S. Balakrishna Kamath as the Chief Financial Officer of the bank. Kamath will take charge on or before January 3, 2025.

#1 Profit jumps 21.4 percent to Rs 309 crore Vs Rs 254.5 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue grows 4.25 to Rs 8,154.2 crore Vs Rs 7,821.9 crore, YoY

#1 Management withdraws growth & RoE guidance amid MFI challenges

#2 Management withdraws loan book growth guidance due to uncertainties in MFI segment

#3 Secured book is projected to grow by over 40 percent, shifting the AUM composition to 40:60

#4 NIM guidance has been revised down from nearly 9 percent to nearly 8.6 percent

#5 Credit cost forecast has been raised from 1.7 percent to 2.3-2.5 percent

#1 Profit spikes 38.4 percent to Rs 577.7 crore Vs Rs 417.4 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue soars 15.9 percent to Rs 1,673.9 crore Vs Rs 1,444.5 crore, YoY