Closing Bell: Nifty below 19,150, Sensex down 523 pts; metals outperform

It was a sea of red at Dalal Street which was primarily clouded by lingering concerns about corporate India’s earnings which as of date was uninspiring and, most importantly, they could come under heavy pressure from inflation, an economic downturn, and soaring interest rates. The negative takeaway was that the bear remained in total control despite WTI Oil prices tumbling to $83 a barrel. Technically, Nifty has support at 18851 mark and strength only above the biggest hurdle at 19557 mark.

Markets extended fall for the 5th straight session as banking, IT stocks led the slump in the backdrop of persisting global turbulence. Higher valuations of Indian stocks have been a concern and the current global turmoil is allowing investors to reduce their equity exposure. Technically, due to weak sentiments, the Nifty has breached the important support level of 19200 and has also formed a bearish candle on daily charts, which is largely negative.

For day traders, 19050 would act as a trend decider level, above which we could see a one quick pullback rally till 19200-19250. On the flip side, fresh selloff is possible only after the dismissal of 19050 and below the same, the market could slip till 19000-18930.

The Nifty opened mildly in the green however it was unable to sustain at higher levels and continued to drift lower to close down ~159 points. On the daily charts we can observe that the Nifty has reached the lower end of the falling channel and very close to the psychological level of 19000.

The short-term trend is negative and minor degree pullbacks are being sold into. Considering the sharp fall in the last couple of trading sessions, there can be consolidation, however it is likely to be a temporary pause. On the downside the Nifty is likely to drift towards 19000 from short term perspective. On the way up 19350 – 19370 shall act as an immediate hurdle zone.

Bank Nifty also witnessed to drift lower and closed in the negative. It is likely to continue to drift lower towards 42500 from short term perspective. Intraday minor pullbacks should be sold into. Crucial resistance is placed at 43000 – 43100 while support is placed at 42600 – 42500.

The Indian stock market faced significant downward pressure as investors grew increasingly concerned about the geopolitical tensions and increasing bond yields in US. Nifty has broken its important support of 19220 and closed below the mentioned levels indicating breakdown of Head and shoulder pattern on daily chart.

Sensex ended the day 0.81 percent, or 522.82 points, down at 64049.06, while the broader Nifty declined 159.60 points, or 0.83 percent, end at 19122.15. Market breadth favoured declined. About 596 shares advanced, 1504 declined.

INDIA VIX was Positive by 3.67 percent intraday and settled at 11.31.

Index has a support around 19000-18900 zone. Coming to the OI Data, on the call side, the highest OI observed at 19300 followed by 19200 strike prices while on the put side, the highest OI is at 19000 strike price. On the other hand, Bank Nifty has support at 42500-42300 while resistance is placed at 43400-43500 levels.

Nifty declined for the fifth day on October 25 as the uncertainties associated with the Israel-Hamas conflict continue to weigh on markets. At close, Nifty was down 0.83% or 159.6 points at 19122.2. Broad market indices fell largely in line with the Nifty even as the advance decline ratio fell to 0.14:1.

China helped Asian stocks rise from 11-month lows on Wednesday as investors cheered the approval of a trillion-yuan sovereign issue as a harbinger of stimulus. European shares gave up early gains on Wednesday as investors digested a slew of mixed earnings reports from the region, while weakness in energy firms on lower crude prices added to the declines.

Nifty kept falling of October 25, showing small intraday bounce. It could now take support from 19011 which is a gap support, while 19229-19333 could offer resistance on upmove.

Relentless selling remained in the Indian markets and bears were seen tightening their grip by dragging the Index lower to breach its previous swing low of 19,220. Nifty50 ended the day at 19,122.15 declining by 159.60 points. Among the sectors, only Metal and PSU Banking managed to end the day in green; while Media and IT were the major laggards. Pressure was seen in the broader markets as well but Mid and Smallcap have already witnessed a freefall in the previous session which led to a marginal outperformance.

Post the Head and Shoulder breakout, follow-up selling was seen in today's trade and Nifty50 has formed another bearish candle on the daily chart. The trend turned negative but at present, the Index appears to be in an extremely oversold situation and a relief rally cannot be ruled out.

Markets extended its decline and lost over half a percent amid mixed signals. After the flat start, Nifty gradually drifted lower and breached crucial support at 19,200 to finally settle at 19,150.35 levels. Most sectors traded in sync wherein realty, financials and IT were the top losers. The broader indices too remained under pressure and lost nearly half a percent each.

Nifty has breached the lower band i.e. 19,200 of the broadening formation and now the next crucial support comes at 200 EMA, which currently lies around 18,830 levels. And, it also coincides with the neckline (breakout) area of the previous consolidation range. Meanwhile, global cues and the scheduled expiry of October month derivatives contracts would add to the choppiness. Traders should align their positions accordingly and prefer index majors over others.

Investor sentiment is on edge as tensions in West Asia continue to drag the market. Despite a drop in oil prices and an optimistic view of the progressing Q2 results season, investors took a cautious approach due to the expectation that a higher interest rate scenario would continue slowing future growth. However, a positive strategy is evident on large-cap stocks, amid growing geopolitical worries and valuation concerns in mid- and small-cap stocks, as overall earnings growth is being sustained.

Indian rupee ended flat at 83.18 per dollar on Wednesday against Monday's close of 83.19.

Indian benchmark indices ended lower for the fifth consecutive session on October 25 with Nifty around 19,100.

At close, the Sensex was down 522.82 points or 0.81 percent at 64,049.06, and the Nifty was down 159.60 points or 0.83 percent at 19,122.20. About 1162 shares advanced, 2404 shares declined, and 100 shares unchanged.

Top losers on the Nifty were Infosys, Cipla, NTPC, Apollo Hospitals and Adani Enterprises, while top gainers included Coal India, Tata Steel, Hindalco Industries, Tata Consumer Products and SBI.

Among sectors, metal index up nearly 1 percent while bank, power, realty, capital goods, pharma and IT down 0.5-1 percent each.

BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices declined 0.5 percent each.

-Hold rating, target at Rs 2,040 per share
-India's revenue grew 18% YoY while brazil sales bounced back strongly
-Branded market is key focus area
-Capital allocation will remain disciplined as per company

Finally, Nifty had the much awaited correction giving up almost 3% for the week. The sell-off was even more brutal within the small and mid-cap space as retail investors finally seem like throwing in the towel on back of lack lustre earnings and no clear positive commentary from managements. The market sell-off was triggered by the US 10yr hitting the 5% mark which pulled down risk levels materially in the region. Nifty will have its expiry this week which can add to further volatility, we see Bank Nifty at the highest risk below the 43K levels with support at 42,200 levels which in turn can drag the market below 19K towards the strong support levels of 18,800.

All eyes will be on the US 10yr, the geopolitical uncertainty along with the FOMC commentary to get direction for the week forward.

Blue Jet Healthcare’s Rs 840.27 crore IPO, which opened for subscription on October 25, has been subscribed 0.41 times so far, receiving bids for 70.05 lakh shares against the issue size of 1.7 crore shares. Retail investors bought 0.54 times while high networth individuals picked 0.67 times the allotted quota.

The public issue is entirely an offer-for-sale (OFS) of over 2.4 crore equity shares by promoters, and there is no fresh issue component. The price band for the issue, which will conclude on October 27, has been fixed at Rs 329-346 per share. The stock is expected to be listed on the bourses on November 6.

-Buy rating, target at Rs 2,325 per share
-Strong growth in core markets drives profitability beat
-Longer term outlook remains intact
-EBITDA margin came in above expectations at 31%
-Forecast a 20%+ EBITDA CAGR over FY23-26 for overall business

Indian Rupee remained flat on Wednesday. A sharp decline in global crude oil prices over the past two days supported Rupee. However, a strong Dollar and weak domestic markets capped initial gains. US Dollar gained on strong economic data from US which shows a resilient economy. US’ ISM manufacturing PMI expanded to 50 in October versus 49.8 in September, after 5 months of contraction. Services PMI also topped forecast and came in at 50.9 versus 50.1 in the previous month.

We expect Rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on strong Dollar and risk aversion in global markets amid geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. Deteriorating of macro-economic conditions in Europe raised recession concerns. However, a decline in crude oil prices may prevent sharp fall in the domestic currency. Traders may remain cautious of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech later today and US GDP and inflation data later this week. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 82.80 to Rs 83.60.

-Overweight call, target at Rs 880 per share
-B/S got stronger by using a large corporate NPL recovery to write off retail GNPLs
-Stock has re-rated sharply in past year
-See more scope as risk perception abates

GMR Airports along with its Affiliate, subsidiaries of GMR Airports Infrastructure Limited have entered into a share purchase agreement with Malaysia Airports Holding Berhad (MAHB) and its wholly owned subsidiary, MAHB (Mauritius) Private Limited, towards acquisition by GMR Group from the MAHB Group, of their current minority 11% equity stake in GMR Hyderabad International Airport Limited, a step down subsidiary of the- company. The said acquisition would be for a negotiated aggregate consideration of USD 100 million.

Sensex Today | Nifty Bank index shed 0.5 percent and turned negative for the year. The major gainers included ICICI Bank, IndusInd Bank, Bandhan Bank, Federal Bank

Sensex Today | Market at 3 Pm

The Sensex was down 442.88 points or 0.69 percent at 64,129.00, and the Nifty was down 139.00 points or 0.72 percent at 19,142.80. About 979 shares advanced, 2201 shares declined, and 90 shares unchanged.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | BSE Bank index down 0.6 percent dragged by ICICI Bank, Canara Bank, Axis Bank

The markets are reacting to the uncertainty that persists through the geopolitical heat up led by Middle East (Israel-Hamas conflict). Along with these, the other factors the rising bond yield and dollar index as well as crude oil price fluctuations supported by the technical confirmations of the Head and shoulder breakdown in Nifty and double top breakdown in Bank Nifty. Cumulatively, this has led to a cautious investor fraternity; which is the right approach, till some clarity emerges on the global front.

-Neutral rating, target at Rs 841 per share
-Healthy Q2 & outlook is positive
-6.5 mt capacity expected to be commissioned in the next couple of quarters
-It is on track to expand capacity to 37 mt by FY25 versus 28.2 mt currently
-Management believes global steel prices have bottomed

Adani Enterprises reduces losses as India calls for increased blending of imported coal with domestic sources to meet power demand. The stock initially dropped 2.5% but later traded 0.9% lower at 2.40pm. However, it's on track for an eighth consecutive day of decline, its longest such streak since March 2020.

DreamFolks Services Q2 earnings show a 20.3% increase in net profit to Rs17.8 crore compared to Rs15 crore YoY. Revenue surged by 65% to Rs282.4 crore from Rs171.2 crore YoY. EBITDA also rose by 21.6% to Rs24.2 crore, up from Rs19.9 crore YoY, with a margin of 8.6%, down from 11.6% YoY.

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail stock saw a huge block deal. Around 9.73 million shares of the company changed hands in a single block deal, Bloomberg reported. However, details of the buyers and sellers were not known.

Tech Mahindra is likely to report dull fiscal second-quarter earnings on October 25. The IT firm’s Q2 FY24 net profit is expected to decline on a year-on-year (YoY) basis while its revenue is likely to remain flat due to lacklustre performance in the communications vertical, delayed telecom revenue and weak discretionary spends, according to analysts.

Tech Mahindra’s EBIT margin is likely to be the major concern as brokerages expect a big contraction in Q2 FY24 on an on-year basis. The company’s deal wins are also expected to remain muted in the quarter under review, on account of weak macro and slow decision-making.

The IT major's net profit may decline around 37 percent YoY to Rs 822 crore, per the average of six brokerages’ estimates. However, sequentially, there might be an 18 percent rise. The quarter may witness certain one-time costs, said analysts. Read More

Broking house believes that Poonawalla Fincorp's strong business model and solid operational execution aided by benign credit environment can deliver PAT of 50% CAGR over FY23-25 and achieve ROA/RoEs of ~4.7%/ 12% in FY25.

Its quality focus, continued digital developments to optimize operations, strong balance sheet and long growth trajectory should see the stock re-rate further.

Maintain BUY rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 480 (values PFL at 24x FY25 P/E and 3.5x FY25E P/B).

Axis Bank is likely to clock a modest 7 percent on-year net profit growth at Rs 5,698 crore in the September quarter, led by net interest income (NII) growth and firm asset quality when it reports its second-quarter result on October 25.

Higher costs of funds will continue to exert pressure on the margins of the private bank, just like for other lenders, analysts said.

Axis Bank’s net interest income (NII), the difference between the interest income a bank earns from its lending activities and the interest it pays to depositors, is expected to increase 15 percent on-year to Rs 11,908 crore, driven by a steady pick-up in loan growth, according to the average of five brokerages’ estimates.

Net profit is likely to fall 2 percent on-quarter, weighed down by elevated cost ratios due to Citi integration. NII is estimated to remain flat from Rs 11,959 crore in the previous quarter. Read More

Sensex Today | Market at 2 PM 

The Sensex was down 421.36 points or 0.65 percent at 64,150.52, and the Nifty was down 127.30 points or 0.66 percent at 19,154.50. About 834 shares advanced, 2319 shares declined, and 98 shares unchanged.

Net profit up 2.5% at Rs 24.4 crore versus Rs 24 crore and revenue up 0.4% at Rs 159.1 crore versus Rs 158.4 crore, YoY.

Net profit at Rs 196.7 crore versus Rs 8.7 crore and revenue up 18.7% at Rs 2,509.1 crore versus Rs 2,113.5 crore, YoY.

Net profit up 20.3% at Rs 17.8 crore versus Rs 15 crore and revenue up 65% at Rs 282.4 crore versus Rs 171.2 crore, YoY.

Sensex Today | BSE realty index down 1 percent dragged by Sobha, Godrej Properties, Indiabulls Real Estate

-Underweight call, target raised to Rs 245 per share
-Core PPoP grew 54% YoY & was 12% above estimate
-Expect retail loan growth to remain strong & drive better PPoP in FY24
-Stay underweight as profitability recovery set to be gradual

Blue Jet Healthcare’s Rs 840.27 crore IPO, which opened for subscription on October 25, has been subscribed 0.23 times so far, receiving bids for 39.25 lakh shares against the issue size of 1.69 crore shares. Retail investors bought 0.34 times while high networth individuals picked 0.29 times the allotted quota.

The public issue is entirely an offer-for-sale (OFS) of over 2.4 crore equity shares by promoters, and there is no fresh issue component. The price band for the issue, which will conclude on October 27, has been fixed at Rs 329-346 per share. The stock is expected to be listed on the bourses on November 6. Read More

-Buy call, target at Rs 2,200 per share
-Q2 largely in-line, core India segment sustained above-market growth
-Positive on its structurally strong business profile

Consolidated loss at Rs 61 crore versus loss of Rs 36.5 crore and revenue up 20.4% at Rs 1,865.5 crore versus Rs 1,549 crore, YoY.

Sensex Today | Market at 1 PM

The Sensex was down 581.60 points or 0.90 percent at 63,990.28, and the Nifty was down 0.91 percent at 19,105.60

Net profit up 5% at Rs 37.7 crore versus Rs 36 crore and revenue up 1% at Rs 389 crore versus Rs 385 crore, YoY.

-Buy call, target at Rs 2,156 per share
-Q2 earnings marginally below estimates, strong India growth a positive
-Earnings impacted by higher costs & lower US revenues
-Reduce earnings estimate for FY24-26 by 4-5%

Vedanta said the board of directors has approved the appointment of Ajay Goel as Chief Financial Officer of the company with effect from October 30. Sonal Shrivastava has resigned from the post of Chief Financial Officer of the company with effect from October 24 due to personal reasons.

Shoppers Stop has further made investment of Rs 5 crore in the preference share capital of Global SS Beauty Brands via Rights Issue. With the subscription of NOCPS (non-cumulative optionally convertible preference shares), the total subscription of NOCPS by the company stands at 3,000 NOCPS of Rs.1,00,000 each. Earlier in April this year, the company invested Rs 25 crore.

Sensex Today | BSE Auto index up 0.4 percent led by Tube Investments of India, Balkrishna Industries, Maruti Suzuki:

Shares of Central Bank of India Ltd recovered on October 25, rising around 5 percent. The surge comes two days after the stock tanked 9 percent after the lender classified its Rs 2,000-crore loans to Go First as non-performing assets (NPAs) in the quarter ended September 2023.

During an analyst call the lender’s Q2 results, Central Bank of India executives disclosed that they had previously set aside provisions in the standard asset category for a significant corporate account (Go First) due to anticipated future issues or stress. Read More

Sensex Today | Market at 12 PM

The Sensex was down 170 points or 0.26 percent at 64,402.15 , and the Nifty was down 0.25 percent at 19,233.95.

Shares of Siemens Ltd traded a percent higher to Rs 3,442 in the morning of October 25, snapping a five-day losing streak on the bourses, after the company said it has filed a writ petition before the Bombay High Court, contesting the show-cause notice (SCN) issued under Section 73 of the CGST Act, 2017.

The notice pertains to the levy of GST on the leasehold interest in a land in Worli, Mumbai, and the freehold interest in the buildings on the property. The expected implications of the tax and interest associated with this SCN amount to Rs 245.9 crore. Read More

The company's consolidated revenue from operations rose 22% YoY to Rs 1,794 crore in Q2FY24

Shares of Delta Corp gained 5 percent at the open on October 25, a day after the troubled Casino major received an interim relief from the Bombay High Court at Goa on show-cause notices from the tax department. By 10:40am, the stock was trading at Rs 134.30, nearly 3 percent higher than close on October 23. READ MORE

Metal stocks added some lustre on October 25 following news reports of China announcing stimulus measures such as additional sovereign debt issuance and an increased budget deficit ratio. READ MORE

Shares of John Cockerill India jumped 5 percent to the day’s high of Rs 3,000 per share on October 25 after the company bagged a Rs 280-crore order from Tinplate Company of India.

So far this calendar year, the stock of this smallcap company has more-than-doubled with a 127 percent rally as against a 6 percent rise in benchmark Sensex. The scrip of John Cockerill India had hit 52-week high of Rs 3,290 apiece on October 19, 2023. Read More

-Buy rating, target at Rs 3,650 per share
-Q2 margin tepid but outlook strong
-Medium-term growth guidance for non-RAC segments remain robust
-Ability to ramp-up would be key for re-rating

Sensex Today | Market at 11 AM

The Sensex was up 4.21 points or 0.01 percent at 64,576.09, and the Nifty was down 0.10 points or 0.00 percent at 19,281.70. About 1821 shares advanced, 1207 shares declined, and 116 shares unchanged.

Mehta Equities believes that the Blue Jet Healthcare IPO offers an opportunity to invest in a specialty pharmaceutical company with a 20-year track record in manufacturing contrast media intermediates and producing niche products, creating high entry barriers for competitors. Blue Jet's established relationships and multi-year contracts with multinational clients not only secure long-term supply agreements but also handle warehousing and logistics.

Although Blue Jet showed substantial growth in FY 2022, growth in FY 2023 was subdued, with a 37% revenue and 34% profit growth in 2022, compared to 5.49% and -12% in 2023. The issue, priced at the upper band of Rs 346, with a P/E of 34x on a consolidated basis, appears to be fully priced considering the growth.

However, Blue Jet's unique niche product segment and lack of immediate peers might attract demand based on a first-mover advantage, potentially leading to significant listing gains. While the 100% offer for sale (OFS) is a concern for new investors, Mehta Equities recommends subscribing to the Blue Jet IPO with a risk perspective, expecting decent listing gains.

Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd (BPCL) is likely to turn around into black in the September quarter from deep into red last year, driven by reduced retail losses, inventory gains, and strong gross refining margins.

Analysts expect a 34 percent on-quarter decline in net profit to Rs 6,580 crore. Net sales of the company are likely to fall 10 percent on a year-on-year basis and 8 percent quarter-on-quarter to Rs 1.03 lakh crore in the reporting quarter, according to a poll of 10 analysts by Moneycontrol. Read More

Sensex Today | Nifty Bank index up 0.5 percent led by Punjab National Bank, State Bank of India, IDFC First Bank

Shares of Kewal Kiran Clothing Ltd rallied over 10 percent on the back of better-than-expected earnings for the September quarter.

In the September 2023 quarter, Kewal Kiran Clothing reported net sales of Rs 262.48 crore, a 15.97 percent increase from Rs 226.34 crore a year ago. Its quarterly net profit stood at Rs 49.80 crore, marking a 27.27 percent rise from Rs 39.13 crore last year. EBITDA stood at Rs 70.03 crore, up 25.23 percent from Rs 55.92 crore, while EBITDA margin increased to 23.5 percent from 22.1 percent. Read More

The markets have shown an upward trend today primarily due to two reasons: First, U.S. companies have reported strong earnings, and second, the stimulus measures in China. Now, the impact of China's stimulus on global markets and the global economy will be closely monitored. If the markets react positively to the stimulus, we might witness a short-term bottom forming on Monday, with markets rebounding from there. However, if the markets remain more concerned about geopolitical events and the rising crude oil prices, this bounce may be short-lived.

Sensex Today | BSE Smallcap index rose 0.5 percent led by Wonderla Holidays, Bajaj Consumer, KDDL:

Adani Ports shares edged higher on October 25, two days after the company incorporated a wholly-owned aircraft leasing unit, Udanvat Leasing IFSC Ltd.

The company, which will have an authorised and paid-up share capital of Rs 2.5 crore, has been incorporated with the objective of carrying out the business activity of owning and leasing aircraft.

Udanvat has been incorporated in Gujarat International Finance Tec-City (GIFT) city, Gandhinagar, and is yet to commence its operations, Adani Ports stated in its regulatory filing. Aircraft leasing firms that commence operations from the International Financial Services Centre (IFSC) in GIFT City are entitled to certain exemptions and benefits. Read More

ION Mobility will enter the sports scooter market segment by unveiling Project Dynamo at the Indonesia Motorcycle Show (IMOS) 2023 between October 25 & 29, 2023. Project Dynamo results from ION Mobility's strategic collaboration with TVS Motor Company, a reputed manufacturer of two-wheelers and three-wheelers globally.

ION Mobility and TVS Motor deepen their collaboration through Project Dynamo, which began in February 2023 after TVS Motor led ION Mobility’s Series A funding of USD 18.7 million as its strategic investor.

-Downgrade to hold, target cut to Rs 2,700 from Rs 2,950 per share
-Company has been a five-year market laggard now
-Lacklustre Q2 performance hasn’t helped with weakness persisting in portfolio
-See little upside unless market turns deeply risk averse

NHPC has achieved a major milestone by daylighting the head race tunnel (HRT) of Parbati-II HE project (800 MW) in Himachal Pradesh. This breakthrough has been achieved in the longest face of the HRT having a total length of 13.118 KM. Completion of this activity is a major milestone towards full commissioining of the project. The said project is expected to be completed by end of September 2024.

Zydus Lifesciences announced today that it has received permission from CDSCO, India, to initiate the Phase II clinical study of NLRP3 inhibitor “ZYIL1” in patients with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS).

Sensex Today | Market at 10 AM

The Sensex was up 93.02 points or 0.14 percent at 64,664.90, and the Nifty was up 24.20 points or 0.13 percent at 19,306. About 1916 shares advanced, 961 shares declined, and 120 shares unchanged.

Sensex Today | BSE Metal index up 1 percent supported by Jindal Steel, Hindalco Industries and NALCO

-Overweight call, target at Rs 1,115 per share
-Industry spending was up 16% YoY in September vs 32% in August
-Company grew slower, up 7% YoY & down 9% MoM
-There is a timing difference in festival season YoY
-Daily aggregate October spending is up significantly, up 33% MoM

Gensol Engineering has in normal course of business, received order from Maharashtra State Power Generation Co. Ltd. (MAHAGENCO). The order value of this project is pegged at Rs 301,54,79,730 including taxes.

Sensex Today | Nifty PSU Bank index rose 0.5 percent led by Union Bank of India, Bank of India, Central Bank of India: