Closing Bell: Nifty around 22,000, Sensex gains 195 pts on expiry day; power, metal, banks shine

Indian benchmark indices ended on a positive note in the highly volatile session on February 29. At close, the Sensex was up 195.42 points or 0.27 percent at 72,500.30, and the Nifty was up 31.60 points or 0.14 percent at 21,982.80.

We wrap up today's edition of the Moneycontrol live market blog, and will be back tomorrow morning with all the latest updates and alerts. Please visit https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/global-indices/ for all the global market action.

The BankNifty bulls displayed strength by defending the crucial support level of 46000, resulting in a close above it and signaling active bullish activity at lower levels. Nonetheless, the index is currently encountering significant resistance at 46500, and a decisive breach above this level is anticipated to trigger additional short-covering, potentially pushing the index towards the 47000 mark. The confirmation of a bottom formation in the index would require sustained trading above 46000 over several sessions.

The Nifty opened on a flat note and consolidated for most part of the day. It was during the last hour of the trading session that the Nifty witnessed a sharp surge and closed the day well in the green up ~32 points. More importantly, the Nifty has held on to the crucial support zone of 21900 – 21850 which coincided with the 20-day moving average and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the rise from 21530 – 22249. Prices are broadly trading in the range 21800 – 22300 since last nine trading sessions and the momentum setup on the daily and hourly time frame is providing divergent signals which makes a case for the rangebound action to continue. The index is still not out of the woods and it is likely to witness volatile action going ahead. In terms of levels, 21860 – 21800 shall act as a crucial support zone while 22230 – 22250 shall act as an immediate hurdle zone from short term perspective.

Bank Nifty has held on to the support zone of 45800 – 45600 and witnessed a recovery. Until today’s low (45660) is not breached we expect the pullback to continue till 46750 – 46900.

The Nifty experienced volatility on the day of monthly expiry before ultimately closing flat. On the daily chart, the index concluded just above the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (21EMA). However, the prevailing sentiment appears somewhat negative from the current level. At the lower end, crucial support is positioned at 21950; as long as the index maintains a position above 21950, there is a possibility of witnessing a recovery. Nevertheless, a decline below 21950 could potentially lead the index towards 21800.

While the markets moved in a range with a mixed bias in intra-day trades, investors covered their short positions by resorting to selective buying on the F&O expiry day. Investors would be closely watching the US inflation reading, which can give some indication on Fed's possible rate cut move in the medium term. Overseas fund inflows have been volatile over the past couple of months due to global market uncertainty and slowdown fears, and hence local investors will try to maintain caution with selective bullish bets.

Markets traded volatile on the monthly expiry day but managed to end marginally higher. The tone was subdued at the beginning and a mixed trend across heavyweights capped the move till the end. Meanwhile, a lackluster move on the sectoral front kept the traders on their toes wherein realty and IT edged lower. Surprisingly, the broader indices ditched the trend and managed to end in the green.

We are seeing a tussle at 21,900 in Nifty, which coincides with a short term moving average i.e. 20 DEMA and expect the index to face a hurdle around the 22,100-22,250 zone, in case of a recovery. At the same time, excessive volatility and failed breakouts across sectors are further adding to the traders’ worries. We feel it is prudent to avoid aggressive trades in the current scenario and utilize rebound to reduce longs.

Rangebound monthly expiry comes to an end at 21,982.80 with gains of 31.65 points. Except for IT and Media, all other sectors ended the day in green with PSU Banking and Metal being the top performers. A steep recovery was seen in the Broader markets and Mid and Smallcaps settled the day higher in the range of 0.50%-0.65%.

On the daily chart, the Index has not only reversed from the lower end of the rising channel but also successfully tested its 21DMA support which suggests a resumption of its primary uptrend. A level of 21,900 will be considered as strong support while on the higher side, the immediate resistance is placed at 22,100 followed by 22,200.

Domestic benchmark traded near a flat-line trend throughout the session, but some buoyancy emerged by the end of the day. Investors adopted a cautious wait & watch approach on the verge of a heavy economic data week. India Q3 GDP has a moderate outlook on a QoQ basis. Fed’s preferred gauge; the US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index is due to provide a clue on the future interest rate cut path and China’s PMI index is scheduled to be released Friday.

The rupee closed at 82.91 against the dollar, slightly lower than yesterday's 82.92. It traded within a narrow range of 82.88-82.93, reflecting sideways and range-bound movements.

The rupee is currently positioned within a broader range, awaiting significant developments in the economy, such as elections or global events. Despite global uncertainties, the rupee has performed relatively well, with only major domestic events expected to impact its movement.

Indian rupee ended flat at 82.91 per dollar versus previous close of 82.93.

: Indian benchmark indices ended on a positive note in the highly volatile session on February 29.

At close, the Sensex was up 195.42 points or 0.27 percent at 72,500.30, and the Nifty was up 31.60 points or 0.14 percent at 21,982.80. About 1650 shares advanced, 1649 shares declined, and 86 shares unchanged.

Adani Enterprises, Tata Consumer, M&M, IndusInd Bank and Adani Ports were among the top gainers on the Nifty, while losers were Apollo Hospitals, Bajaj Auto, LTIMindtree, Eicher Motors and UPL.

On the sectoral front, except healthcare, all other indices ended in the green with bank, capital goods, metal, power up 0.5-1 percent.

BSE midcap index added nearly 1 percent and smallcap index rose 0.5 percent.

-Buy call, target Rs 480 per share
-Weak near term earnings & overhang of BAT stake sale have been key drivers for stock correction
-Company’s cigarette business trading at an implied FY26 PE of 15x
-Expect the cigarette volumes to recover in Q4
-Company’s cigarette EBIT expected to grow at 8% CAGR under a stable cigarette tax regime
-Paper business likely to be a near term drag, recovery likely only in H2FY25

-Outperform call, target Rs 1,900 per share
-Expect liquidity pressures to alleviate for system; loan growth to remain robust
-Expect asset quality to normalise in the coming quarters
-Believe company can deliver RoA of 1.8 percent+ over FY24-26E
-Company exhibits room for improvement on NIM front
-At a 1.6x P/BV, believe shares look cheap given RoA trajectory
-Promoters await final approval from RBI to increase stake
-Earlier RBI approval was attached with caveats that have been met

Sensex Today | BSE Smallcap index up 0.4 percent led by Paisalo Digital, Rico Auto, Agro Tech Foods

Indian Rupee fell by 0.02% on selling pressure by FIIs and Dollar demand from importers. However, positive domestic markets and a weak US Dollar cushioned the downside. US Dollar declined as US Q4 2023 GDP (2nd Estimates) fell to 3.2% from its initial estimates of 3.3%. Other economic data from US too were disappointing.

We expect Rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on Dollar demand from OMCs and importers. However, weak dollar and positive domestic as well as European markets may support Rupee at lower levels.

Traders may take cues from India’s fiscal deficit and GDP data. Traders may also remain cautious ahead of inflation, weekly unemployment claims, personal income, pending home sales and Chicago PMI data from US. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 82.70 to Rs 83.15.

-Initiate buy, target Rs 300 per share
-Well placed to post 19 percent volume CAGR over FY23-26
-Fastest growing port infrastructure company, with focus on increasing market share
-Strategic location of ports to support long-term growth
-Diversified operations in terms of cargo profile, geography and assets
-Expect revenue/EBITDA to report 21 percent/25 percent CAGR over FY23-26

Sensex Today | Market at 3 PM

The Sensex was up 64.87 points or 0.09 percent at 72,369.75, and the Nifty was down 3.30 points or 0.02 percent at 21,947.90. About 1457 shares advanced, 1802 shares declined, and 69 shares unchanged.

Sensex Today | BSE Midcap index up 0.3 percent supported by APL Apollo, REC, Endurance Technologies

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Citi View On PSU Banks 

BoB – buy call, target Rs 290 per share
SBI – sell call, target Rs 600 per share
PNB – sell call, target Rs 83 per share
Growth revives though lags industry average; LDRs expand 8-12% to 73-80%
Gross NPA/slippages have more than halved, credit cost at <2%
Yield improvement outpaced deposit cost rise; NIMs still modest
RoA trajectory breached 1% mark for most of PSU Banks except PNB, BoI

Sensex Today | BSE Bank index up 0.6 percent supported by ICICI Bank, SBI, IndusInd Bank

-Buy call, target raised to Rs 850 per share from Rs 760 per share
-Bank has withstood most concerns, with negligible impact on earnings
-Do not see a specific tailwind that can cause a re-rating in short term
-Relatively comfortable to build a lower credit cost, as a key argument
-Outperformance is likely with other public banks, given sharp convergence in multiples
-Valuing at 1.4x book & 10x earnings for RoEs at 15 percent

Sensex Today | Nifty Bank index up 0.3 percent led by IndusInd Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI

Bharat Highways Infrastructure Investment Trust’s (InvIT) IPO has been subscribed 37 percent so far on February 29, the second day of bidding.

The Rs 2,500-crore IPO, the biggest so far in 2024, has received a ‘Subscribe’ rating from several brokerages owing to reasonable valuation. BP Wealth believes that the InvIT’s objective to repay or prepay loans to the Project SPVs will enhance its leverage position. Read More

-Buy call, target Rs 3,140 per share
-Disney-RIL-Viacom18 JV will sport most lucrative cricketing rights in India
-JV to have 40 percent share of advertising market
-JV opens avenues for better ad inventory monetisation
-JV with Disney opens avenues for content cost reduction with lower competition
-Disney's business has been valued much lower than widely reported in media
-Disney-RIL-Viacom18 transaction adds Rs 40 per share to RIL’s SOTP

BEML Limited has bagged order from M/s. Eastern Coalfields Limited for BH100 Rear dumper contract value worth Rs 72.71 crore.

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Sensex Today | Market at 1 PM

The Sensex was up 68.09 points or 0.09 percent at 72,372.97, and the Nifty was down 4.20 points or 0.02 percent at 21,947.00. About 1342 shares advanced, 1860 shares declined, and 79 shares unchanged.

Promoter Sasikala Raghupathy sold further 17,73,243 equity shares (equivalent to 2.46% of paid up equity) in BGR Energy Systems via open market transactions at an average price of Rs 55.81 per share.
With this, Sasikala offloaded in total 1,42,48,504 equity shares (equivalent to 19.74% of paid up equity) since February 21 against the shareholding of 1,73,14,450 equity shares (23.99%) as of December 2023.

However, Anita Jaideep Sampat picked 4 lakh shares in BGR at an average price of Rs 54.85 per share, and Malti Narendra Sampat bought 4 lakh shares at an average price of Rs 54.87 per share.

-Downgrade to outperform from buy, target Rs 1,061 per share
-Robust volume growth for JLR
-JLR posted a 14.5 percent YoY improvement in retail volumes in Jan 2024
-JLR UK, EU & China volumes rising 43 percent, 12 percent and 38 percent YoY, respectively
-JLR’s Q4FY24 volumes are tracking higher than Q3FY24
-Discounts On Jaguar have increased, whereas discounts on Land Rover have declined in Jan’24
-Net Debt levels for JLR declined by £675 m, & company appears set to turn net cash by FY25

Exicom Tele-Systems IPO has been subscribed 38.63 times so far on the final day of bidding, February 29. High networth individuals remained at the forefront, subscribing 85.16 times, retail investors picked 81.21 times, while qualified institutional buyers bid 4.6 times of the allotted quota.

Happiest Minds Technologies has joined the Secureworks Global MSSP Partner program to meet the growing customer demand for Extended Detection and Response (XDR) services across the globe.

Punjab & Sind Bank has received approval from the board of directors to raise capital up to Rs 2,000 crore through public issue / Rights Issue / qualified institutional placement(s) / Preferential Issue or any other mode, in one or more tranches within a period of 12 months.

Sensex Today | Nifty Auto index up 0.3 percent supported by Sona BLW Precision Forgings, M&M, Maruti Suzuki

The public issue of Mukka Proteins was subscribed 39 percent so far on the first day of bidding on February 29. Retail investors remained at the forefront, subscribing 67 percent, while high net-worth individuals picked 26 percent of the allotted quota.

The company aims to raise Rs 224 crore through the fresh issue of 8 crore shares. The Karnataka-based company plans to allocate Rs 120 crore to meet its working capital requirements. It intends to allocate Rs 10 crore for the working capital needs of its associate Ento Proteins. The rest of the net proceeds from the fresh issue will be earmarked for general corporate purposes.

Shares of Venus Pipes & Tubes Ltd rallied over 8 percent on February 29 after the stainless steel manufacturer entered the fittings business and expanded capacity for pipes and tubes.

Fittings play a crucial role in industrial piping by enabling fluid or gas connection, redirection, and control. The company's entry into this sector aims to strengthen its position in the industrial business.

MD Arun Kothari of Venus Pipes & Tubes states that fittings complement their pipe business, offering complete PFF solutions. The expansion includes introducing a new line of stainless and titanium welded tubes, enhancing profitability. This two-phase capacity expansion, focusing on value-added fittings and welded tubes, will be completed by March 2025 and December 2025, respectively. Read More

NBCC has successfully executed the e-auction of approximately 61000 sqft Commercial Built Up Area at Ayurvigyan Nagar, New Delhi.

The total deal is valued at Rs 272.68 crore.

M/s Grid Controller of India Ltd. (A PSU under Ministry of Power) participated in thee-auction and secured the deal.

The core business of thermal power is thriving while the power utility is plugging into clean energy. READ MORE

Vikas V Gupta, chief executive and and chief investment strategist at Omniscience Capital, is bullish on sectors such as power and clean tech that are crucial for a fast-growing economy. The man with more than 20 years of experience in capital markets believes the demand for AI technologies and applications is expected to drive growth in semiconductor companies, cloud platforms, and data centres. "We also see opportunities in Banks and Financial Services, especially those enabling capital growth, as these sectors are currently undervalued," Vikas says in an interview to Moneycontrol. READ MORE

Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in India declined 13 per cent to USD 32.03 billion in April-December 2023, dragged down by lower infusion in computer hardware and software, telecom, auto, and pharma sectors, according to the latest government data. FDI inflows stood at USD 36.74 billion during the corresponding nine months of the preceding fiscal. READ MORE

Shares of Brightcom Group Ltd tanked nearly 7 percent on February 29 after the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) on February 28 refused to lift restrictions imposed on the company's promoter Suresh Kumar Reddy, in a case of irregularities in preferential allotment of shares made by the company. READ MORE

Sensex Today | Market at 11 AM

The Sensex was down 116.40 points or 0.16 percent at 72,188.48, and the Nifty was down 62.70 points or 0.29 percent at 21,888.50. About 948 shares advanced, 2189 shares declined, and 82 shares unchanged.

Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (IRDAI) has granted Certificate of Registration to Policybazaar Insurance Brokers (Policybazaar), a wholly owned subsidiary of PB Fintech to act as composite insurance broker with effect from February 28. With this, the category of Policybazaar has been changed from Direct Insurance Broker (Life & General) to Composite Insurance Broker.

Shares of Jio Financial Services (JFS) gained 3 percent on February 29 following inclusion in the Nifty Next 50 index. The NSE announced the change in its semi-annual review of broad market indices. The stock will enter the index on March 28, 2024.

In addition to Jio Financial Services, Adani Power, Indian Railway Finance Corporation, Power Finance Corporation and REC will make it into the Nifty Next 50. Read More

Sensex Today | BSE Midcap index shed 0.5 percent dragged by Max Healthcare Institute, Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail, Supreme Industries

Sensex Today | BSE Smallcap index down nearly 1 percent dragged by KSB Pumps, JB Chemicals, Balu Forge Industries

In the last session, Nifty experienced a breach of its immediate support at the 22000 levels, accompanied by notable selling pressure. Ahead of today's expiry, analysis of the Nifty Weekly Option OI Distribution indicates significant Open Interest of approximately 160 lakhs shares at the 22200 Call strike, while the 21800 Put strike holds substantial Open Interest of approximately 58 lakhs shares, suggesting key levels to watch.

Looking ahead, 21800 is likely to serve as a support level on the downside. While Nifty has historically bounced back from similar levels, a drop below 21700 could precipitate a sharp decline in the near term. Immediate resistance is anticipated within the range of 22150-22200 levels.