Closing Bell: Nifty around 22,000, Sensex falls 454 points; smallcaps gain

Nifty traded in negative territory throughout the session after seeing recovery in the previous session. The index closed with a loss of 123 points (-0.6%) at 22023 levels. Broader market ended on a mixed note with Nifty Midcap 100 down -0.5% while Nifty Smallcap 100 up +0.4%. Barring FMCG & Metals All sectors ended in red. Oil & Gas witnessed major selling down 2% after OMCs cut petrol and diesel retail prices by Rs 2 per litre.

Next week will be important from an economic perspective as major central banks globally including Japan, the US, and the UK will announce interest rate decisions. US Fed policy outcome and commentary will be important as mixed set macro data has kept investors anxious over rate cut timeline. Thus, we expect the market to remain volatile in the near term with a focus on large caps and defensive names.

The Nifty opened on a weak note and witnessed volatile price action throughout the day. The first half witnessed a decline while a bounce back helped the Nifty to close off the intraday lows, though on a negative note down ~123 points. On the daily charts we can observe that the Nifty has managed to hold on to the support zone of 21900 – 21860 as of today. The 40-day exponential average (21970) absorbing the selling pressure. So, until this zone is held, we can expect the upside momentum to resume. In terms of levels, 22215 – 22250 is the immediate hurdle zone while 21900 – 21860 is the crucial support.

Bank Nifty held on to the lower end of the rising channel placed at 46500. Also, it is close to the crucial support level of 46200 where the 20 week moving average is placed. Thus, multiple support parameters are likely to provide cushion in case of a decline. We expect the Bank Nifty to recover during the coming week. On the upside, it can rise to 47230 – 47400.

The Nifty has once again closed below the rising trendline, bringing market sentiment back into a state of weakness. The momentum indicator suggests bearish momentum in the near term. Immediate support is situated at the 50DMA, currently at 21,900, which is expected to provide support for the Nifty. A decisive drop below 21,900 could lead to a sharp decline in the index. On the upside, resistance is observed in the range of 22,200-22,250.

Cautiousness towards mid & small caps continued to drag market sentiment, dampening the broader market. However, the moderation in global commodity prices and the upward revision of India's GDP for FY25 are poised to highlight robust domestic demand, potentially supporting a rebound once the broader market attains stability. We anticipate continued bargain opportunities in mid- and small-cap stocks, whose valuations are underpinned by strong fundamentals.

The BankNifty index witnessed a volatile trading session, forming a doji candle that signals indecision in the market. Immediate resistance for the BankNifty index lies at 47000, coinciding with the 20-day moving average (20DMA). A decisive break above this level could propel the index higher towards the 47500 mark.

On the flip side, the lower end support is positioned at 46500-46300, where bulls are currently attempting to defend. However, a breach below this level may intensify selling pressure in the market.

Market snaps 4-week gaining streak
Sensex & Nifty slip 2% each, biggest weekly loss in 5 months
Except IT, all sectoral indices record losses this week

Indian rupee ended lower at 82.88 per dollar versus previous close of 82.81.

: Indian benchmark indices erased previous session gains and ended lower with Nifty around 22,000.

At close, the Sensex was down 453.85 points or 0.62 percent at 72,643.43, and the Nifty was down 123.40 points or 0.56 percent at 22,023.30. About 1724 shares advanced, 1939 shares declined, and 113 shares unchanged.

Biigest losers on the Nifty included BPCL, M&M, Tata Motors, Coal India and L&T, while gainers were Bharti Airtel, UPL, Bajaj Finance, HDFC Life and Adani Enterprises.

Except Telecom (up 1 percent), all other sectoral indices ended in the red with oil & gas, auto, capital goods, healthcare down 1-2 percent.

BSE Midcap index down 0.5 percent, while Smallcap index ended on a positive note.

-Buy call, target Rs 1,250 per share
-Tight liquidity to prevail for longer; deposit mobilisation will be a challenge
-Cost of funds to gradually increase until Q1FY25
-Benign credit costs allowing bank to invest in franchise
-Expect company’s deposits & loans to register 15.5 percent and 15 percent CAGR over FY24-26
-Over a longer horizon, management expects company to grow at 400-600 bps higher than system credit growth

Oil prices have reacted positively to the bullish demand outlook for crude oil in 2024 from the leading energy research houses (OPEC, EIA and IEA) and further hinting of supply deficit of 0.3-0.5 mbpd during the course of year. IEA now estimates global oil demand to increase by 1.3mb/d in 2024 to 103.2mb/d, up by around 0.11mb/d compared to its previous estimates. On the supply side, the IEA estimates global supply to increase by 0.8mb/d this year to 102.9mb/d, including a downward adjustment to OPEC+ output. WTI breached the resistance of $80 to trade at fresh four months high and is headed for weekly gains above 4%. The economic data from US have been mixed so far with jump in consumer spending and inflation remained hotter at retail and factory levels in Feb.

Outlook: Oil market has flipped into deficit due to OPEC+ kingpin’s continued efforts to under produce, EIA has reported 0.9mbpd of deficit in February as global oil demand stood at 102.93mbpd, global oil supply at 101.82mbpd in February 2024. We see oil prices head for further upside in short to medium term with WTI prices to trade in broader range of $76-$83/b, all the major correction should be considered as buying opportunities. For the day we see oil prices could fall back to $79 but momentums still favour the bull.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | CLSA View On IT

-Reiterate cautious stance; sell ratings On Wipro, HCL, TCS And LTIMindtree
-Demand euphoria reflected in recent hyper-scaler
-Oracle & chip manufacturing company earnings call commentary failed to percolate down to IT services orderbooks
-Momentum around deal win announcements QTD has slowed compared to Q2/Q3FY24
-Key industry verticals, like banking, retail & telecom, continue to face challenges
-Due to an uncertain macro and still-high interest rates, client budgeting exercises remain fluid
-Believe this could pose downside risk to estimate & consensus for FY25 revenue growth
 

Indian Hume Pipe Company has been awarded 6 (six) Letter(s) of Acceptance worth Rs 241.99 crores (excluding GST) from Bangalore Water Supply and Sewerage Board, Bangalore, Karnataka.

Sensex Today | BSE Telecom index up 1 percent led by Railtel Corporation of India, Bharti Airtel, Optiemus Infracom

Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.03% on Friday on strong US Dollar and weak domestic markets. FII outflows and surge in crude oil prices also put downside pressure on Rupee. US Dollar strengthened on hotter than expected inflation data from US. US PPI rose 0.6% in February 2024 versus 0.3% in January 2024.

Weekly unemployment claims fell to 209,000 as compared to the forecast of 218,000. Retail sales increased by 0.6% in February 2024 versus -1.1% in January 2024 but slightly lower than forecast of 0.8%. These trimmed expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in June 2024.

We expect Rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on strong Dollar and weak global markets amid declining odds of a rate cut by Fed in June. However, some softening of crude oil prices at higher levels may support Rupee. Any selling of Dollars by RBI may also support Rupee at lower levels. Traders may take cues from India’s trade balance data. Traders may also take cues from Empire State Manufacturing Index, industrial production and UoM consumer sentiment data from US. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 82.70 to Rs 83.10.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Citi View On OMCs

-Unwarranted Petrol & Diesel price cut but not entirely unexpected
-A token cut that puts us in glass-half-full camp
-With crude prices breaching $85/bbl, a price cut in Diesel was not warranted
-Marketing margins were already hovering around breakeven levels
-Whilst cut would hurt near-term sentiment for HPCL & perhaps more
-Viewing any meaningful pullback as a medium-term buying opportunity

Sensex Today | Market at 3 PM

The Sensex was down 385.16 points or 0.53 percent at 72,712.12, and the Nifty was down 107.70 points or 0.49 percent at 22,039.00. About 1589 shares advanced, 1736 shares declined, and 71 shares unchanged.

For the purpose of the debt settlement, Reliance Power along with its Promoter, Reliance Infrastructure Limited, as a Guarantor has signed settlement agreement with ICICI Bank Limited (ICICI) on March 14, 2024.

Sensex Today | BSE Realty index rose 0.5 percent led by Swan Energy, Brigade Enterprises, Godrej Properties

India's trade deficit slightly widened in February due to increased imports driven by strong domestic demand. Trade Ministry data revealed a gap of $18.71 billion between exports and imports, aligning with economists' forecasts. Exports surged by 11.9% to $41.40 billion, while imports grew by 12.2% to $60.11 billion. Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal noted that India's exports have remained resilient amidst challenging circumstances.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Citi View On OMCs

-Unwarranted Petrol & Diesel price cut but not entirely unexpected
-A token cut that puts us in glass-half-full camp
-With crude prices breaching $85/bbl, a price cut in Diesel was not warranted
-Marketing margins were already hovering around breakeven levels
-Whilst cut would hurt near-term sentiment for HPCL & perhaps more
-Viewing any meaningful pullback as a medium-term buying opportunity
 

Gold eked out gains on Friday but was set for its first weekly drop in four weeks, as surprisingly hot U.S. inflation readings prompted traders to re-think on how swiftly and deeply the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates.

Spot gold rose 0.3% at $2,167.72 per ounce, but was on track for a weekly drop of about 0.5%, its first since mid-February.

U.S. gold futures edged 0.2% up at $2,172.10.

Sensex Today | BSE FMCG index rose 0.3 percent led by Godrej Agrovet, ITC, Mrs. Bectors Food Specialities

Oil prices edged lower on Friday but were on track to gain nearly 4% for the week, boosted by the International Energy Agency revising its 2024 oil demand forecasts higher and an unexpected decline in U.S. stockpiles.

Brent crude oil futures fell 38 cents or 0.4% to $85.04 a barrel at 0751 GMT, after crossing $85 a barrel for the first time since November on Thursday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 35 cents or 0.4% to $80.91.

-Equal-weight call, target Rs 555 per share
-NPCI grants Third Party Application Providers (TPAP) approval under multi-bank model
-Company has partnered with four banks- Axis Bank, HDFC Bank, State Bank Of India & Yes Bank
-Above move is a positive development and in-line with expectations
-Continue to await an update on potential impact to company’s businesses during Feb’24
-Await updated commercials for company as Paytm Payment Bank's business moves to other banks

NCC's subsidiary NCC Infrastructure Holdings (NCCIHL) has reached a settlement with TAQA India Power Ventures (TAQA) and Himachal Sorang (HSPL) for the amounts payable under the arbitration award(s) related to the Himachal Sorang Power Project. The project was divested in favour of TAQA in September 2012. NCCIHL has already made provision of Rs 140 crore in its books of account up to February 2024 towards the disputed amounts.

As per the settlement, NCCIHL has agreed to pay Rs 175 crore to TAQA in three instalments i.e. Rs 85 crore by March 31, 2024, Rs 45 crore by July 31, 2024 and the balance Rs 45 crore by December 31, 2024 under the arbitration award(s).

The Assistant Commissioner of State Tax, Mumbai has initiated a search at Bombay Burmah Trading Corporation on March 13 at registered office in Mumbai, under the Maharashtra Goods and Services Tax Act. The corporation has extended its full co-operation with the officials and responded to the clarifications and details sought by them. They do not foresee any material impact on the business of the Corporation.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | CLSA View On OMCs

-Sell call on HPCL, BPCL & IOC
-2 percent cut in retail price of Diesel & Petrol may be a big de-rating event
-2 percent fuel cut will mean brent crude price above $85/91/bbl
-Fuel cut will take down marketing margin for Diesel/Petrol to below long-term average of Rs 2/L
-Margin on diesel now below fair levels & this cut challenges optimistic narrative of government
-Stock price baking in much higher than long-term average refining & marketing margins

Sensex Today | Market at 1 PM

The Sensex was down 485.21 points or 0.66 percent at 72,612.07, and the Nifty was down 163.80 points or 0.74 percent at 21,982.90. About 1184 shares advanced, 2107 shares declined, and 64 shares unchanged.

Vishnu Prakash R received a Letter of Acceptance from the Office of Assistant General Manager, HSIIDC Kharkhoda for project of construction of 57 MLD WTP and all contingent works thereto in all respect along with 120 months of Operation and Maintenance at IMT Kharkhoda, District Sonipat (on EPC Mode) worth Rs 1035.1 million.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Morgan Stanley View On OMCs 

-Much-anticipated auto fuel price cut should finally remove key overhang
-Rs 2/liter price cut versus estimate of Rs 2-3/l brings India's fuel basket to $85/bbl brent crude
-Implied integrated fuel margin for retailers will average 30 percent above mid-cycle
-Implied integrated fuel margin will average 30 percent considering strength in refinery margin
-Prefer IOC with highest refining exposure, should benefit
-HPCL may see a negative near-term impact on integrated margin
-Negative near-term impact for IOC due to its lower self-sufficiency ratio of 60 percent
-IOC’s fuel marketing volumes higher than fuel refining output
-Would look to accumulate HPCL stock should any correction occur
 

Capital Trust announced authorization from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to conduct Aadhaar authentication under section 11A of the Money Laundering Act.

Sensex Today | BSE Bank index shed nearly 1 percent dragged by Bank of Baroda, SBI, Axis Bank

Sensex Today | Nifty Media index fell 1.3 percent dragged by DB Corp, Zee Entertainment, Dish TV

Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals has bagged orders from the Government of Maharashtra, Haryana and Rajasthan for supply, installation, testing and commissioning of solar photovoltaic water pumping system (SWPS) with PV modules under the PM-KUSUM Scheme.

Sensex Today | Nifty Bank index fell nearly 1 percent dragged by Punjab National Bank, Bank of Baroda, State Bank of India

Sensex Today | BSE Metal index down 2 percent dragged by Coal India, NMDC, SAIL

Elpro International has acquired equity shares worth Rs 6.31 crore of Ami Organics that develops advance pharma intermediates for active pharmaceuticals ingredients.

Promoter Venu Srinivasan sold 14,16,247 equity shares of Sundaram Clayton (equivalent to 7% of paid up equity) at an average price of Rs 1239.99 per share, valuing at Rs 175.61 crore. However, SBI Mutual Fund bought additional 7.74 lakh equity shares, and Govindlal Mansukhlal Parikh purchased additional 5,35,802 equity shares at an average price of Rs 1,240 per share.

Mahendra Lodha has withdrawn his resignation as the Director (Finance) and CFO of PTC India Financial Services. Now, he will continue as Director (Finance) and CFO, and will also have additional charge of MD & CEO till new incumbent joins as MD & CEO.

The Management Committee of the Board of Directors of Spandana Sphoorty Financial at its meeting held on March 15, 2024, has approved the issuance of 5,000 Secured, Senior, Redeemable, Transferable, Listed, Rated Non-Convertible Debentures having face value of Rs 1,00,000 each at par aggregating up-to Rs 50,00,00,000 on private placement basis and 5,000 Secured, Senior, Redeemable, Transferable, Listed, Rated Non-Convertible Debentures having face value of Rs 1,00,000 each at par aggregating up-to Rs 50,00,00,000 on private placement basis.

Muthoot Microfin announced its foray into Telangana. The first phase of the expansion will see the inauguration of 4 branches across Telangana in March 2024. These branches will strategically serve locations including Bhuvanagiri, Jangaon, Hanmakonda and Parakala, enhancing accessibility to financial services.

Subsequently, Muthoot Microfin plans to further establish branches in Andhra Pradesh by June 2024.

Shantiram Kutumbkam Food Services has bought additional 19,28,821 equity shares in Ruchi Infrastructure at an average price of Rs 11.7 per share, however, Patanjali Foods sold further 20 lakh shares in the same company at same price.

Sensex Today | Market at 12 PM

The Sensex was down 544.24 points or 0.74 percent at 72,553.04, and the Nifty was down 198.40 points or 0.90 percent at 21,948.30. About 1138 shares advanced, 2115 shares declined, and 66 shares unchanged.

The Board of Elgi Equipments in its meeting held today took note of the relinquishment of Mr. Jayakanthan R, as Chief Financial Officer of the Company with effect from March 18, 2024, and that he will continue to serve on the rolls of the Company in the position of Senior Managerial Personnel until May 31, 2024, on which date he will superannuate from the company.

The Board appointed Mr. Indranil Sen as the Chief Financial Officer and Key Managerial Personnel of the Company with effect from March 18, 2024.

IndiGo market share at 60.1 percent versus 60.2 percent, Air India market share at 12.8 percent vs 12.2 percent and SpiceJet market share at 5.2 percent vs 5.6 percent, MoM.

Sensex Today | BSE Smallcap index down 1 percent dragged by ITI, India Pesticides, Kellton Tech Solutions

A meeting of the board of directors of Himadri Speciality Chemical is scheduled to be held on March 20, 2024 to consider and approve the proposal for issuance of equity shares by way of preferential allotment in accordance with the applicable law, subject to such regulatory/statutory approvals as may be required and the approval of shareholders of the company

And proposal for raising of funds by way of issuance of equity shares / preference shares / bonds /debentures / warrants or any other eligible securities through permissible modes, including but not limited to Preferential Issue, Private Placement, Qualified Institutions Placement or any equivalent capital raising mode or combination of methods as may be permitted under the applicable laws, subject to such regulatory/statutory approvals as may be required including the approval of shareholders of the Company.

The Board of Directors of Kotak Mahindra Bank at their meeting held today, appointed Mr. Jaideep Hansraj, currently Managing Director of Kotak Securities Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Bank, as Group President - One Kotak of the Bank, for engaging in the collaboration and oversight of subsidiaries of the Bank.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | All sectors continue to be in red at this hour

SpiceJet has finalised a significant lease agreement to introduce two wide-body A340 aircraft into its fleet for the upcoming Haj operations. The airline will deploy the wide-body aircraft from both Srinagar and Guwahati.

Quant Small Cap Fund has bought 8.05 lakh equity shares and Quant Mutual Fund Active Fund 7 lakh shares in Gopal Snacks (equivalent to 1.2% of paid up equity) at an average price of Rs 374.21 per share, via open market transactions.

Navin Fluorine International is going to make an additional investment of Rs 250 crore in subsidiary Navin Fluorine Advanced Sciences (NFASL), by subscribing to non-convertible, redeemable preference shares for repayment of the existing inter corporate deposits and further business funding equirements of NFASL.

Sensex Today | BSE Midcap index down 1 percent dragged by HPCL, BHEL, REC