Closing Bell: Sensex, Nifty end marginally higher amid volatility; autos shine

Indian benchmark indices ended with marginal gains in the volatile session on January 11. At close, the Sensex was up 63.47 points or 0.09 percent at 71,721.18, and the Nifty was up 28.50 points or 0.13 percent at 21,647.20.

We wrap up today's edition of the Moneycontrol live market blog, and will be back tomorrow morning with all the latest updates and alerts. Please visit https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/global-indices/ for all the global market action.

Net profit at Rs 6,106 crore and rupee revenue at Rs 38,821 crore.

Markets traded dull and settled almost unchanged, in continuation to the prevailing consolidation phase. After the initial uptick, Nifty slipped gradually lower however recovery in the select index majors pared the losses in the final hour. Consequently, Nifty closed at 21647.20 levels; up by 0.13%. A mixed trend continued on the sectoral front wherein energy and auto performed well while media and realty closed with modest cuts.

Nifty has been hovering in a range for almost two weeks now and a mixed trend in index majors is not offering any clear signal over the next directional move. We feel participants should prefer hedged positions, with the beginning of the earnings season and wait for clarity.

Adjusted net profit was up 6% at Rs 12,016 crore against Rs 11,342 crore and rupee revenue up 1.5 percent at Rs 60,583 crore versus Rs 59,691 crore, QoQ.

Board announces interim dividend of Rs 9 per share & special dividend of Rs 18 per share

Rupee exhibited a wide range, fluctuating between 82.92 and 83.07. Market participants are closely watching the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled for the evening. The outcome of this crucial data will play a significant role in shaping the Federal Reserve's stance on potential interest rate cuts. If the inflation data comes in weaker, it could provide support for the Fed to consider rate cuts in the coming months.

Despite the range-bound movements, the rupee has shown some strength at the beginning of 2024, aided by positive participation in the capital markets and RBI interventions maintaining support around 83.30-83.40. The broader range for the rupee is anticipated to be between 82.75 and 83.25.

In anticipation of inflation data from the US, the Indian market exhibited range-bound trade. Though investors anticipate US inflation to ease, global markets, expecting a CY24 interest rate cut, have already priced in optimism. Profit booking occurred amid moderating Q3 corporate earnings and concerns about premium valuations. Selling pressure on IT stocks stemmed from weak earnings estimates.

A rangebound trade comes to an end at 21,647.20 with gains of 28.50 points. Among the sectors, Energy and Auto were the star performers while a correction was seen in the IT index ahead of Q3 numbers of sector giants Infy and TCS.

The interest of market participants was more towards the broader markets as Mid and Smallcaps outperformed the Frontline Index. In a well-defined range of 21,470-21,800, it appears that the Index is forming a Bullish Flag pattern and one can expect a sharp uptick after the pattern breakout.

Nifty faced selling pressure within the 21700-21750 range, yet found stability as it held above its 10-day moving average, concluding the session with a positive close. Presently, Nifty's immediate support has shifted to 21600, while 21730 serves as a resistance level on the technical chart. The broader positional support for Nifty remains at 21500.

The Bank Nifty index witnessed ongoing struggles between bulls and bears, leading to a volatile trading session. A significant hurdle for the index is identified at 48000, marked by substantial call writing.

A decisive breakthrough above this level is anticipated to trigger a sharp short-covering rally. On the downside, the lower-end support remains intact at 46900. A close below this support level may intensify selling pressure in the market.

Indian rupee ended flat at 83.02 per dollar on Thursday against Wednesday's previous close of 83.04.

: Indian benchmark indices ended with marginal gains in the volatile session on January 11.

At close, the Sensex was up 63.47 points or 0.09 percent at 71,721.18, and the Nifty was up 28.50 points or 0.13 percent at 21,647.20. About 2022 shares advanced, 1251 shares declined, and 63 shares unchanged.

Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto, Reliance Industries, Axis Bank and BPCL were among the Top gainers on the Nifty, while losers included Infosys, Dr Reddy's Laboratories, SBI Life Insurance, HUL and Wipro.

Mixed trend was seen on the sectoral front with BSE Capital Goods index down 1 percent and BSE IT index down 0.5 percent, while BSE auto and oil & gas indices up 1 percent each.

Broader indices outperformed the main indices with BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices adding 0.7 percent each.

-Overweight call, target Rs 210 per share
-Asirvad MFI IPO was put in abeyance by SEBI
-SEBI move on Asirvad MFI IPO likely had a negative impact on investor sentiment
-Investor sentiment negative inferred from stock price action yesterday
-P/E is 6x and P/B is 1.1x for F24-26, average RoE of 20 percent
-FY23-26 EPS CAGR of 25 percent, FY24-26 CAGR of 16 percent & hence re-rating over time

Oil prices rose on Thursday after an oil tanker was boarded by an armed group in Oman, raising the prospect of escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Brent crude futures gained $1.03, or 1.3%, to $77.83 a barrel by 0916 GMT and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 98 cents, or 1.4%, to $72.35, though gains were capped by a surprise build in U.S. crude stockpiles.

Sensex Today | BSE Healthcare index up 0.3 percent supported by Lincoln Pharma, Global Health, Suven Life Sciences:

-Overweight call, target Rs 135 per share
-Gross loan growth was strong at 4 percent QoQ, mainly driven by domestic loan growth at 5 percent QoQ
-Overseas book was down 0.6 percent QoQ
-Deposit growth remains muted given higher excess liquidity (LCR ratio at 170 percent as of September 2023)
-Domestic loan-to-deposit ratio improved 3 percent QoQ, to 79 percent

-Initiate overweight call, target Rs 7,200 per share
-Company is preferred midcap IT pick
-A focused & transformed Coforge has shown scalability attributes
-Company’s scalability attributes can keep its revenue growth profile higher for longer versus peers
-Bake in a revenue CAGR of 14.7 percent over FY24-26 on a constant currency basis
-EBIT margin improvement of 190 bps in FY24-26
-Valuations are at a premium, but have potential to sustain
-Company has potential to sustain driven by robust revenue growth & strong FCF conversion
-Key catalysts include deal TCV that inches up from a quarterly run rate of over USD 300 million
-Company delivers on growth aspirations faster than currently expected by market

Sensex Today | BSE Auto index up 1 percent led by Hero MotoCorp, TVS Motor Company, Bajaj Auto:

BSE Smallcap index touched fresh recod high of 44,356.12 led by Imagicaaworld Entertainment, MRPL, Easy Trip Planners

I anticipate that the government's primary emphasis will persist on fostering economic growth through increased capital investment and infrastructure development. It seems likely that sectors such as manufacturing and renewable energy will receive additional stimulus. In the lead-up to the upcoming general election, we can anticipate announcements tailored to benefit salary classes and rural populations.

The capital market is currently experiencing robust momentum, and I express the hope that the government refrains from implementing policies that might disrupt the positive market sentiment. Simultaneously, I advocate for a reconsideration of the removal of either Long-Term Capital Gains (LTCG) or Securities Transaction Tax (STT) to provide further support to the equity culture in India.

Shares of Shiva Cement soared 18.5 percent on January 11 amid reports of its parent company, JSW Cement's plans for a mega Rs 6,000-crore initial public offering. Moneycontrol was the first to report citing multiple sources on January 10, that the JSW Group has roped in investment bankers to facilitate the initial public offering of its group company JSW Cement.

"As of now, the target is to raise up to Rs 6,000 crore, mop up growth capital and fund the company's aggressive expansion plans," one of the sources said. The source also added that a final decision on the size of the share sale had not been made yet.

Buoyed by the news of a possible IPO for its parent company, at 12.27 pm, shares of Shiva Cement were trading nearly 16 percent higher at Rs 59.75 on the NSE despite coming off its day's high.

Shares of Easy Trip Planners, which operates the online travel portal EaseMyTrip, jumped more than 14 percent on January 11, continuing the uptrend that followed the Maldives row.

The Maldivian tourism body has called on EaseMyTrip to re-open flight bookings on its platform to the island nation even as the website offers discounts for travel within India.

The Delhi-based travel aggregator suspended all flight booking to Maldives following the disparaging remarks made by now-suspended Maldivian ministers against India and Prime Minister Narendra Modi following his visit to Lakshadweep.

HDFC AMC reported net profit for the December quarter of Rs 488 crore against Bloomberg estimates of Rs 460 crore. Revenue stood at Rs 671 crore against Bloomberg estimates of Rs 717 crore. Total cost stood at Rs 177 crore versus Rs 177 crore a quarter ago.

-Buy call, target raised to Rs 150 per share
-After an extremely strong 2023, expect relatively muted business
-Expect relatively muted business stock performance in 2024
-Still, long-term view remains constructive
-Highly dependent on continued progression of quick commerce business
-Slowing quick commerce growth is a key downside risk

Nuvama Asset Management, the alternatives-focused asset management arm of Nuvama Wealth Management, and global commercial real estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield announced the joint venture company namely Nuvama and Cushman & Wakefield Management (NCW) with equal share.

NCW is planning to launch its first real estate fund – PRIME Offices Fund (PRIME) and aims to raise Rs 3,000 crore to invest in prime commercial offices across India’s high-growth markets. Meanwhile, Riyaz Ladiwala has resigned as President and Head of Technology & Operations of the company with effect from January 10.

Indian Rupee is trading flat today. It opened on a positive note on weak Dollar and positive domestic markets. However, it lost its initial gains on some FII outflows and a slight recovery in crude oil prices. US dollar declined on Wednesday as traders trimmed their positions ahead of inflation data.

We expect Rupee to trade with a slight positive bias on soft US Dollar and positive Asian currencies. However, recent FII outflows and recovery in crude oil prices may cap sharp gains. Concerns over global economic slowdown and the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and Middle East may also weigh on Rupee. Investors may remain cautious ahead of inflation data US today and CPI and IIP data from and India tomorrow. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 82.70 to Rs 83.30.

Sensex Today | Market at 2 PM

The Sensex was up 123.59 points or 0.17 percent at 71,781.30, and the Nifty was up 43.90 points or 0.20 percent at 21,662.60. About 2081 shares advanced, 1154 shares declined, and 69 shares unchanged. 

Sensex Today | Nifty Information Technology index down 0.3 percent dragged by Infosys, HCL Technologies, Wipro:

Net profit down 37.1% at Rs 23.6 crore versus Rs 37.5 crore, while revenue up 24.1% at Rs 850.8 crore against Rs 685.6 crore, YoY.

The dollar drifted lower in Asia on Thursday as traders waited on U.S. inflation data to see whether bets on as many as five Fed interest rate cuts this year were justified, while weak wages data dragged the yen to a six-week low on the euro.

Bitcoin traded at $46,400, just short of a two-year high, with investors welcoming the much-anticipated U.S. approval of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

TCL Intermediates, a wholly owned subsidiary of Thirumalai Chemicals, has commenced commercial production, from its greenfield plant at Dahej. The product manufactured is fumaric acid. This is expected to augment a revenue by about Rs 4 crore from its operations for the quarter ending March 2024.

Sensex Today | BSE Smallcap index up 0.8 percent supported by MRPL, Kalyani Steel, Suven Life Sciences:

Jyoti CNC IPO had been subscribed 12.13 times on January 11, the final day of bidding, with bids coming in for 21.28 crore shares against the issue size of 1.75 crore shares.

Retail investors portion picked 21.04 times the allotted quota. High net-worth individuals (HNI) bought 19.50 times and qualified institutional buyers 5.47 times the portion set aside for them.

Smallcap World Fund Inc has bought 36,15,365 equity shares, equivalent to 0.57% of paid up equity, in NCC via open market transaction at an average price of Rs 185.23 per share. These shares amounted to Rs 66.97 crore.

Mahindra and Mahindra (M&M) and Mahindra Susten will reduce their shareholding in Sustainable Energy Infra Trust to 10.5% and 15% respectively, through primary issue and offer-for-sale. Pre-offer, the company and Mahindra Susten (subsidiary of Mahindra Holdings) hold 15.7% and 73.9% stake respectively in Sustainable Energy Infra Trust.

M&M launches all-electric XUV400 pro range starting at Rs 15.49 lakh, reported CNBC-TV18.

Sensex Today | Jefferies View On Telecom 

-In 2024, telcos are likely to shift their focus to monetisation 
-Telcos may announce tariff hikes & as 5G adoption picks up
-Telcos may also introduce 5G-specific tariffs
-See spectrum demand in upcoming auctions as focussed only on renewals
-Spectrum auction focus on renewals should limit capex & support FCF 
-Timing of tariff hikes & Voda Idea funding will be key focus areas 
-Buy call on Bharti Airtel, target Rs 1,300 per share 
-Underperform on Indus Towers, target Rs 160 per share 

Sensex Today | Market at 1 PM

The Sensex was up 145.03 points or 0.20 percent at 71,802.74, and the Nifty was up 54.60 points or 0.25 percent at 21,673.30.  About 2083 shares advanced, 1128 shares declined, and 66 shares unchanged. 

Infosys’ profit after tax (PAT) for the quarter is expected to rise 0.5 percent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to Rs 6,244 crore, according to an average of six brokerage estimates. Revenue is seen falling by 0.9 percent to Rs 38,630 crore for the quarter, according to average estimates by the same set of brokerages. Read More

Gold prices rose on Thursday as the dollar extended its retreat ahead of a U.S. inflation report later in the day that could offer more clarity on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook this year.

Spot gold was up 0.5% at $2,033.71 per ounce, as of 0648 GMT. U.S. gold futures also rose 0.5% to $2,038.20.

Vedanta - Cairn Oil & Gas submits the first Field Development Plan (FDP) in OALP to commence Gas Production from Jaya in Gujarat

Cairn Oil & Gas, part of Vedanta Ltd., notified gas and condensate discovery of Jaya in its onshore OALP block in the Bharuch district of Gujarat in August 2021.

Cairn has now submitted a Field Development Plan (FDP) to produce >2,000 boepd initially. This will be the first FDP submitted in OALP regime, among 144 blocks awarded under 8 OALP rounds by the Government to various companies.

Allied Digital Services has been selected as a Master System Integrator (MSI) for the Integration of CCTV Surveillance with Existing ITMS Control Room for the Ayodhya Smart City Project.

The country’s largest IT services company, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), is set to announce its earnings on January 11, for the third quarter ended December 31 of the financial year 2024.

Analysts expect muted quarterly earnings, with three out of the top 5 tier-I IT companies estimated to report a decline in QoQ and YoY revenue growth, though TCS would likely remain steady. TCS is expected to see a flattish EBIT margin uptick by 20 basis points in Q3, according to Moneycontrol’s poll estimates. Read More

Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, HDFC Asset Management Company, 5paisa Capital, AGI Infra, Fundviser Capital (India), GTPL Hathway, Gujarat Hotels, Kenvi Jewels, Longview Tea Company, Mercury Trade Links, Plastiblends India, Pro Fin Capital Services, Quasar India, Rajoo Engineers, Sonalis Consumer Products, Shekhawati Poly-Yarn, and Vijay Textiles will announce their quarterly earnings on January 11.

Deepika Deepti has resigned as Senior Vice President- Marketing of Metro Brands with effect from March 26, due to personal reasons. She was a part of the senior management of the company. Meanwhile, Alisha Malik, the President, who previously handled the marketing function, will oversee it on an interim basis until a successor is appointed.

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has granted Certificate of Registration to UGRO Capital to commence and carry out the factoring business.

Sensex Today | BSE Midcap index up 0.7 percent led by Solar Industries India, ICICI Securities, Shriram Finance:

Securities transaction tax was introduced when tax on capital gains booked on sale of stocks was abolished. Now capital gains are taxed, hence STT needs to be abolished. This should reduce costs associated with trading and further deepen our markets. Otherwise, the finance minister should offer increased respite on capital gains taxation. For example, as per extant rules long term capital gains on stocks in excess of Rs 1 lakh are taxed at 10%. This limit should be enhanced to Rs 3 lakh.

Government should also consider enhancing the limit under section 80c of IT Act. Instead of Rs 1.5 lakh it should be made Rs 5 lakh. There should be a dedicated limit for investments in ELSS within section 80c.

Mahindra and Mahindra has completed execution of agreements between the company, International Finance Corporation (IFC), India Japan Fund (IJF), and Mahindra Last Mile Mobility Limited, a subsidiary of the company (MLMML), whereby IJF has agreed to invest Rs 400 crores in MLMML, in one or more tranches.

Atul Products has commenced its operations of 300 tpd caustic and 50 MW power plant at Atul site. The approved investment for the said operations is Rs 1,035 crore.

The dollar drifted lower in Asia on Thursday as traders waited on U.S. inflation data to see whether bets on as many as five Fed interest rate cuts this year were justified, while weak wages data dragged the yen to a six-week low on the euro.

Bitcoin traded at $46,400, just short of a two-year high, with investors welcoming the much-anticipated U.S. approval of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

Unichem Laboratories has received ANDA approval for its Doxazosin Tablets USP, 1 mg, 2 mg, 4 mg and 8 mg from the United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) to market a generic version of Cardura (Doxazosin) Tablets, 1 mg, 2 mg, 4 mg and 8 mg, of Viatris Specialty, LLC.

Doxazosin tablets are indicated for the treatment of hypertension, to lower blood pressure.

The product will be commercialized from Unichem’s Goa Plant.

Satin Creditcare Network said the Board of Directors will be meeting on January 15 to consider the proposal of raising of funds through public issue of non-convertible debentures. The fund raising will be within the borrowing limits approved by the shareholders, in one or more
series/ tranches.

Sensex Today | Nifty Bank index up 0.4 percent led by Bandhan Bank, IDFC First Bank, IndusInd Bank:

-Downgrade to hold, target raised to Rs 1,125 from Rs 1,020 per share
-Growth drivers intact
-ARPU to rise, see market share gains in mobile
-Growth in non-mobile & capex intensity to decline
-Stock appears to be fairly valued
-See pricing in benefits from mobile tariff hikes & lower capex intensity
-India business trading at 10.9x FY25 EV/Ebitda

Safari Industries (India) said the board of directors will be meeting on January 15 to consider the raising funds through issue of securities to one or more persons, on preferential basis. The board will also seek approval of the members for the said fund raising.

With the upcoming inauguration of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya, tourism firm Praveg is anticipating significant benefits from the increased number of devotees visiting the religious site. Praveg, which describes itself as a pioneer in the experiential tourism sector, provides exhibition, event management, and hospitality services within the country. READ MORE

The Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) stock extended the previous session's gains to rise more than a percent on January 11 morning to hit a new high of Rs 2,691.20 on the National Stock Exchange. The heavyweight has been in an uptrend after Goldman Sachs reiterated its “buy” call on the back of "exposure to structurally growing consumer and tech businesses, compounding with a robust oil to chemical business".

Bank of India share price gained 2 percent on January 11 after the company reported better performance on the deposits and advances front for the December quarter.

The total global business of the state-owned bank increased by 9.9 percent at Rs 12,76,389 crore. Its total global deposits were up by 8.66 percent at Rs 7,10,307 crore and domestic deposits were up 7.62 percent at Rs 5,99,137 crore, the bank said in a business update.

The bank recorded an 11.5 percent jump in its gross global advances at Rs 5,66,081 crore, while domestic advances were up 11.60 percent at Rs 4,76,125 crore from the year-ago period.

Sales up 98% YoY & up 1% QoQ at RS 253 crore and Collections up 30% YoY & up 37% QoQ at Rs 151 crore.

Sensex Today | BSE Capital Goods index down 0.5 percnet dragged by Polycab India, Elgi Equipments, Siemens:

Angel One share price rose in the opening trade on January 11 as the company board is going to consider fundraising on January 15.

Earlier the company had informed that the board meeting scheduled to be held on January 15, 2024, to consider and approve the unaudited financial results (standalone and consolidated) of the Company for the quarter and nine months ended December 31, 2023.

The company now informed that at the said meeting, the board of directors will also consider a proposal for raising funds through the issuance of non-convertible securities on a private placement basis.

Sensex Today | BSE Oil & Gas index up 0.7 percent led by HPCL, IOC, BPCL, Reliance Industries:

Sensex Today | Nifty Media index up 0.3 percent led by Dish TV, Network 18 Media & Investments, Sun TV Network:

-Buy call, target raised to Rs 150 per share
-After an extremely strong 2023, expect relatively muted business
-Expect relatively muted business stock performance in 2024
-Still, long-term view remains constructive
-Highly dependent on continued progression of quick commerce business
-Slowing quick commerce growth is a key downside risk

Shares of Kalyani Steels Limited surged over 11 percent to Rs 579 in early trade on January 11 after the company announced it has emerged as the successful bidder for the acquisition of assets belonging to Kamineni Steel & Power India Private Ltd.

"The company has been declared as a successful bidder for the acquisition of assets of Kamineni Steel & Power India Private Limited under the invitation for the sale of Assets through e-auction platform, under Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016," it said in a regulatory filing on January 10. Read More

KEI Industries has slipped for 4th consecutive session and is down 14% over last one week.

The Nifty is hovering around the 21,700 mark, with the Sensex gaining 150 points today, indicating a market stuck within a range. The inconsistent behavior of Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) and Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) is evident this month, as they engage in alternating bouts of buying and selling, keeping the market confined. To break out or break down from this range, the market requires significant triggers.

For today's expiry, it is anticipated that the Nifty will trade within the range of 21,600 to 21,700 levels. The benchmark index is expected to find support in the range of 21,550-21,600 levels, with a robust buy zone identified at 21,450-21,500 levels.

For the Nifty Bank, support is expected at 47,200-47,300 levels, and a strong buy zone is anticipated at 46,925-47,025 levels.

Goldman Sachs reiterated neutral rating on Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services and cut EPS estimate by 22% in FY24, and by 8% in FY25E (to also reflect 2QFY24 earnings).

Consequently, lower the target price by 9% to Rs 264 (from Rs 291).

Goldman Sachs has upgraded Shriram Finance to buy from neutral and raised earnings estimates by 10%/13% for FY25E/FY26E.

Increased 12-month target price by 43% to Rs 2,758 (from Rs 1,926).

Sensex Today | BSE Auto index up 1 percent supported by Hero MotoCorp, Balkrishna Industries, Tube Investments of India:

Jyoti CNC IPO has been subscribed 3.92 times so far on January 11, the final day of bidding, with bids for 6.87 crore shares against the issue size of 1.75 crore shares.

Retail investors remained at the forefront, picking 11.08 times the allotted quota. High net-worth individuals (HNI) bought 6.49 times and qualified institutional buyers 0.22 times the portion set aside for them.