Closing Bell: Sensex tanks 1,272 pts, Nifty below 25,850; auto, bank, realty major drag

Indian equity indices ended on weak note with Nifty below at 25,850 on September 30. At close, the Sensex was down 1,272.07 points or 1.49 percent at 84,299.78, and the Nifty was down 368.20 points or 1.41 percent at 25,810.80.

We wrap up today's edition of the Moneycontrol live market blog, and will be back tomorrow morning with all the latest updates and alerts. Please visit https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/global-indices for all the global market action.

The markets began the week on a feeble note, losing nearly one and a half percent due to mixed global cues. After opening with a gap down, Nifty gradually declined, ending the day near its low at the 25,810.85 level. Initially, the drop was limited to a few heavyweight stocks but later spread across the board. Sector-wise, auto, realty, and banking were the biggest losers, while the metal index stood out, hitting a new high and gaining over a percent.

Nifty’s three-week upward streak had pushed the index into overbought territory, leading participants to trim their positions amid mixed global signals. The broad-based decline in heavyweight stocks put the bulls on the back foot, potentially paving the way for some consolidation. The next crucial support for Nifty is around the 25,560 level, near the short-term moving average i.e. 20 DEMA. If a rebound occurs, the 26,000-26,250 zone could pose resistance. Traders are advised to adopt a stock-specific strategy and maintain positions on both sides of the market.

After showing a sustainable upmove in the last few weeks, Nifty witnessed sharp profit booking on Monday and closed the day lower by 368 points. After opening with a downside gap of 110 points, Nifty slipped into further weakness in the early to mid-part of the session. There was no significant upside recovery for the day and Nifty closed near the lows. The opening downside gap remains unfilled.

A long bear candle was formed on the daily chart with gap down opening. Technically, this chart pattern is indicating a bearish reversal type candle pattern (type of bearish evening star-not a classical one). This market action is also signaling a short term top reversal action for the Nifty and expect some more weakness in the coming sessions.

Bullish higher tops and bottoms is intact on Nifty as per daily timeframe chart. Present weakness could be in line with the new higher bottom of the sequence. We expect Nifty to find support around 25500-25400 and the market is likely to bounce back from the lows. Immediate resistance to be watched at 26000 levels.

The Nifty slipped sharply following a brief pause in the previous trading session, breaking below its recent consolidation. This decline was accompanied by a significant negative divergence in the RSI (14), indicating potential further weakness.

Sentiment may remain weak in the near term, with support placed at 25,750. A break below 25,750 could lead to further correction. On the higher side, resistance is seen at 26,000.

The much-needed correction was witnessed in today's trade. After a gap-down opening, the Index first broke the psychological support of 26,000 and later kept on violating its small support points as well to end the session at 25,810.85 with a loss of 368.10 points.

Among the sectors, Metal and Media managed to end the day in green; while on the flip side, Auto and Realty shed over 1.60%. Mid and Smallcaps also corrected but comparatively outperformed the Benchmark Index.

A strong bearish candle is formed on the daily chart which depicts the strength of bears. Considering the higher top higher bottom formation, the next support for the Index comes at 25,500 coupled with 21DMA support and due to the change in polarity, once again 26,000 will be considered as an immediate hurdle.

Global markets turned topsy turvy under the threat of rising geopolitical risk in the Middle-East and plausible increase in Yen interest rate which can reduce cross country investments in equity.

On the contrary, the Chinese market had a resurgence due to a large stimulus package and cheap valuation.

India also weakend under the global pressure and premium valuation while metals are expected to outperform in the near-term.

Going ahead the domestic focus will be on the upcoming Q2 results where earnings growth is expected to revert after the dull Q1.

Indian rupee ended at 83.80 per dollar on Monday versus Friday's close of 83.70.

Indian equity indices ended on weak note with Nifty below at 25,850 on September 30.

At close, the Sensex was down 1,272.07 points or 1.49 percent at 84,299.78, and the Nifty was down 368.20 points or 1.41 percent at 25,810.80. About 1757 shares advanced, 2107 shares declined, and 148 shares unchanged.

Except Metal and Media (up 1 percent each), all other sectoral indices ended in the red with auto, bank, IT, telecom, pharma, realty down 1-2 percent.

BSE Midcap index ended with marginal losses, while Smallcap index ended flat.

Hero MotoCorp, Trent, Axis Bank, Reliance Industries, Bharat Electronics are among the top losers on the Nifty, while gainers are JSW Steel, Hindalco Industries, NTPC, Tata Steel, Britannia Industries.

Indian Rupee declined on Monday on weak domestic markets and a surge in crude oil prices. Dollar demand from importers also weighed on the Rupee. However, the softness in the US Dollar supported the Rupee at lower levels. Weaker than expected core PCE price index and personal income data from the US also weighed on the Dollar and raised optimism on rate cuts by the Fed.

We expect Rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on weakness in domestic markets amid profit booking and month-end Dollar demand from OMCs and importers. The surge in crude oil prices on the back of the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may further pressurise the Rupee. However, the weak tone of the US Dollar may support the Rupee. Traders may take cues from India’s fiscal deficit and current account deficit data. Investors may watch out for ISM manufacturing PMI and non-farm payrolls report from the US this week. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 83.60 to Rs 84.

#1 Board reappoints MD & CEO; pending RBI approval; focus turns to fundamentals

#2 Believe that reappoints MD & CEO removes near-term overhang of management change

#3 Next key event for stock is Q2 results, where expect PAT of Rs 2,200 cr, roughly in-line

#4 Estimate credit cost to remain elevated at 1.2 percent in Q2, in line with Q1 with GNPA of 2 percent

#1 US FDA approval for BMS Schizophrenia drug is in line with our expectations

#2 US analyst recently highlighted confidence on expectation of timely approval

#3 Key points now include FDA approval label details

#4 Commercial launch dynamics include revenue forecasts of our US analysts

QIB – 44.31 times

NII - 181.90 times

Retail – 84.61 times

Employee Reserved - 76.17 times

Overall – 88.85 times

The company has appointed Subodh Srivastav as Chief Marketing Officer, effective October 21, 2024.

#1 India's fuel prices are benchmarked to USD 80/bbl oil prices

#2 Well supplied oil markets with potential for more surplus supply should continue

#1 In past 3 quarters, company faced headwinds that led to profit growth trailing loan growth

#2 Headwinds includes RBI ban that resulted in Rs 200 crore hit to quarterly fee income & NIM compression

#3 Higher credit costs may take 1-2 more quarters to normalise, in our opinion

#4 Even if company increases credit cost guidance to 2 percent, estimate FY25 EPS would fall only 1-1.5 percent

#5 Focus will be on fundamentals – superior loan growth, operating leverage over 1-2 years

#6 With blockbuster listing of arm, parent trades at lower multiple than consolidated entity

The Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) has approved the incorporation of BEL IAI AeroSystems, a joint venture between Bharat Electronics and Israel Aerospace Industries, Israel.

The Sensex was down 1,151.01 points or 1.35 percent at 84,420.84, and the Nifty was down 331.00 points or 1.26 percent at 25,848.

The company has received an order from the Assistant Commissioner of Income Tax, Mumbai, demanding tax and interest of Rs 361.23 crore for the Assessment Year 2022-23. The company plans to file an appeal against the order before the Commissioner (Appeals).

#1 Company has 90 percent of PepsiCo's India bottling volume in an underpenetrated soft drink market

#2 Disruptive digital market develop models for driving sales are coming to India with new AI tools

#3 Speed & market share can be picked up if company adopts tools ahead of its competitors

April Moon Retail, a joint venture company of Adani Airport Holdings, has executed a Share Purchase Agreement with Cococart Ventures (CVPL) and its existing shareholders, Karan Ahuja and Arjun Ahuja, for the acquisition of a 74% stake in CVPL for Rs 200 crore. Adani Airport Holdings is a subsidiary of Adani Enterprises.

#1 Bharti Airtel: Prepaid India government for spectrum acquired in 2016

#1 Mahindra Logistics: JV for warehousing, trading services

The board has approved the amalgamation of IDFC Financial Holding Company with IDFC, effective September 30, and the merger of IDFC with IDFC First Bank, effective October 1. Furthermore, the board has appointed V Vaidyanathan as MD & CEO of the bank for three years, effective from December 19, 2024.

The pharmaceutical company has invested $620 million in preference shares of its subsidiary Dr Reddy’s Laboratories SA, Switzerland. The subsidiary has allotted 6.2 million non-convertible preference shares, each with a nominal value of $100, to the company.

Zen Technologies announced the grant of its latest Indian Patent for the "Infantry Virtual Training Simulation System (IVTSS)" on 30th September 2024.

Thispatent, filed on 29th December 2022 and valid until 29th December 2042, is the company’s 19th patent in the calendar year 2024 and the 9th in the financial year 2024-25.

The board of Apollo Healthco has approved the allotment of Rs 2,475 crore worth of compulsorily convertible non-cumulative participating preference shares (CCPS - Class A and B) with a face value of Rs 100 per share, to Rasmeli, an Advent affiliate, for a 16.9% stake.

Following the allotment, Apollo Hospitals' stake in its subsidiary, Apollo Healthco, will reduce from 94.91% to 78.879%.

The company board to consider the proposal for issue of bonus shares in the ratio of 5:1 i.e., five new fully paid up equity share of Rs 10 each for every one existing fully paid up equity share of Rs 10 to the equity shareholders of the company subject to the approval of shareholders of the company.

Adani Electricity Mumbai has signed a Business Transfer Agreement with its subsidiary, North Maharashtra Power, to carve out the Adani Dahanu Thermal Power Station. Adani Electricity Mumbai is a subsidiary of Adani Energy Solutions.

The board has approved the re-appointment of Sumant Kathpalia as Managing Director & CEO for a term of three years, effective March 24, 2025. This re-appointment is subject to approval by the Reserve Bank of India and the bank's shareholders.

The technology consulting and digital solutions company has strengthened its partnership with Currys, the UK retailer of technology products and services. LTIMindtree will re-platform Currys' website to Salesforce Commerce Cloud, launch an in-store client app on Experience Cloud, and implement Service Cloud for post-sales support.

#1 NTPC green has 3.2 GW operational now, including 3.1 GW solar and 100 MW wind

#2 Company plans to ramp up 19x to 60 GW by 2032, implying a 44 percent capacity CAGR

#3 A DRHP has been filed for a fresh issue up to Rs 10,000 crore

#4 Assuming 10-15 percent stake dilution and NTPC’s RE is at a 2x premium to its coal business

#5 Company could potentially add 5-11 percent upside on the current market price

QIB – 2.93 times

NII - 126.97 times

Retail – 59.56 times

Employee Reserved - 65.95 times

Overall – 57.89 times

The Calcutta High Court has ruled in favour of Reliance Infrastructure, upholding the arbitration award of Rs 780 crore (including accrued interest) against West Bengal-based Damodar Valley Corporation related to the Raghunathpur Thermal Power Project. The court dismissed the appeal by Damodar Valley Corporation, and a bank guarantee of Rs 600 crore will also be released.

The company has resumed production at its ammonia and urea plants. Both plants were shut down for the replacement of reformer catalysts on September 6.

The company has received a contract worth Rs 82 crore from Oil India for 2D seismic data acquisition of 4,300 LKM in the Rajasthan Basin under Mission Anveshan. The order will be executed within 18 months, and the company’s total order book now stands at Rs 1,000 crore.

Shares of Saregama India were buzzing in trade yet again, as it bounced back from a two-day fall and surged 10 percent on September 30. With the sharp gains in today's session, backed by heavy trading volumes, the stock has delivered a 20 percent surge in the last one week.

The rebound in the stock today was also supported by heavy trading volumes as 43 lakh shares already changed hands so far, higher than the one month daily traded average of 11 lakh shares. Read More

The company has appointed Prarthana Agarwal as Chief Financial Officer, effective October 1, following the retirement of Sunit Malhotra from the same role.

The fund raising committee of Mankind Pharma at its meeting held on September 30, 2024, has finalize the issuance of Non-convertible Debentures (NCDs) and Commercial Papers (CP). The company approved to issue upto 500,000 INR denominated, secured, rated and listed non-convertible debentures with nominal value of Rs 100,000 each, aggregating to not more than Rs 50,000,000,000 in 3-4 distinct series with maturities of upto 48 months; and listed and rated commercial paper having face value as may be decided in accordance with applicable law, for an aggregate financing amount of not exceeding Rs 50,000,000,000 (the CP), in one or more tranches or series.

Coal India Limited (CIL), effective 1st October 2024, will be applying uniform interest rates on delayed amounts of receivables, adjustments and recoverable sums that remain outstanding after the due date.

Earlier, the interest rates were skewed with wide variances even for the same generating company that had different Fuel Supply Agreements (FSAs) with CIL. The policy tweak is for coal sold under different FSAs and schemes.

Tata Motors Group held the groundbreaking ceremony for its new vehicle manufacturing facility in Tamil Nadu. The group plans to invest Rs 9,000 crore in this greenfield manufacturing facility, which is designed for an annual production capacity of over 2.5 lakh vehicles. Production will begin in phases and progressively ramp up to full capacity over the next 5-7 years.

Icon Facilitators today announced the filing of its Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with BSE SME.

The company’s initial public offering comprises a fresh issuance of 21,00,000 Equity Shares, each with a face value of Rs 10.

Khambatta Securities Limited is the sole Book Running Lead Manager to the Issue, and Maashitla Securities Private Limited is the Registrar.

#1 Worst is not behind yet due to macro factors including China competition

#2 Margin is however expected to improve sequentially from the current base

#3 CDMO business is expected to clock USD 100 millon revenue in FY27

#4 Overhang related to the MD’s appointment is also behind us

QIB – 0.54 times

NII - 109.02 times

Retail – 55.15 times

Employee Reserved - 56.98 times

Overall – 51.14 times

Indian benchmark indices experienced a sharp decline today, with the Sensex plunging 900 points and the Nifty falling below 26,000. This downturn is largely attributed to rising geopolitical tensions, particularly the intensification of Israeli strikes in Lebanon, which have introduced significant uncertainty into global markets.

Despite this setback, we maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook. Any dip toward the 25,500 to 25,400 range should be viewed as an opportunity to buy, as this level represents a point of polarity where the index had previously consolidated. On the upside, immediate resistance is noted at 25,920, with further hurdles at 26,000 and 26,200, where we anticipate significant confluence.

Looking ahead to this week, investors are feeling nervous, especially with important events coming up, including a crucial speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later today.

Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) shares sulked in the red on September 30, falling over four percent.

BHEL is one of seven counters that have begin to trade in the Nifty Next 50 index today onwards. The state-owned capital goods player's stock price is likely to see inflows of $47 million following its inclusion into the Nifty Next 50 index. Read More

The Calcutta High Court has ruled in favour of Reliance Infrastructure, upholding the arbitration award of Rs 780 crore (including accrued interest) against West Bengal-based Damodar Valley Corporation related to the Raghunathpur Thermal Power Project. The court dismissed the appeal by Damodar Valley Corporation, and a bank guarantee of Rs 600 crore will also be released.

Shares of state-owned Bharat Electronics, the newest entrant to the Nifty 50, slipped into the red on its debut trading day after joining the benchmark index. Bharat Electronics, along with retail major Trent, replaced Divis Laboratories and LTIMindtree in the benchmark Nifty 50 on September 27. The counters will have a weight of 1.4 percent and 0.9 percent respectively, according to Nuvama Institutional Equities. READ MORE

#1 China's outperformance does not help the EM basket

#2 Expect a pull back in China after the recent rally

#3 Expect more flows towrds India as EM funds draw more money

#4 India is on a growth trajectory, doing very well economically

#5 Problem is in Indian derivatives market like Sebi has pointed out

#6 Can see minor correction in India, but long-term bull trend is intact

#7 Sensex climb to 1 lakh-mark possible by the end of this year

#8 More demand for housing to prop up, metals, autos to do well