Closing Bell: Sensex up 741 pts, Nifty above 23,500; over to Union Budget now

Indian benchmark indices ended higher for the fourth consecutive session on January 31 with Nifty above 23,500 amid buying across the sectors ahead of Union Budget. At close, the Sensex was up 740.76 points or 0.97 percent at 77,500.57, and the Nifty was up 258.90 points or 1.11 percent at 23,508.40.

We wrap up today's edition of the Moneycontrol live market blog, and will be back tomorrow morning with all the latest updates and alerts. Please visit https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/global-indices for all the global market action.

The Nifty has given a falling wedge breakout, indicating a short-term bullish reversal. The index has also moved above the 21-period EMA, reinforcing the positive momentum. Additionally, the current RSI reading supports a strong upward move in the market. However, much will depend on how market participants react during and after the budget. Support is placed at 23,300–23,200, while resistance is seen at 23,600 and 23,800.

The indices are fueled with expectations of a pro-growth budget and prudent fiscal as indicated in the economic survey. Positive global cues and better-than-expected results from major companies are also contributed to the upward trend. Market expects reductions in individual tax and job generation to boost consumption. By cutting fiscal deficit but continuing to boost infrastructure spending, the government may set the tone for a potential recovery in the consolidating market.

The Nifty-50 Index and Sensex each gained 1.6% in the past week. While the mid-cap index gained around 0.3% and small-cap index lost around 0.7% in the past week. Sentiments remain subdued ahead of the FY26 Union Budget. The Q3FY25 earnings season has been broadly in line with our tepid expectations; however, management commentary remained uninspiring, further weighing on sentiments. Sector-wise, it was mixed bag. Capital goods (+3.5%), Auto (+3.0%), Realty (+6.2%), FMCG (+0.7%) and Power (+1.0%) ended in green. Major sectoral losers for the week include, IT (-1.9%), Consumer Durable (-0.9%), Metal (-0.5%), Telecom (-2.5%) and Pharma (-2.3%). Within the Nifty, Bharat Electronics (+8.2%), Hero MotoCorp (+7.9%) and M&M (+7.4%) gained the most, while HCL Tech (-3.9%), Sun Pharma (-3.8%) and Tata Motors (-3.5%) lost the most. FPI were net sellers in the past five days, while DIIs were net buyers in the same period.

In Global, in US, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday held rates as it highlighted inflation. Trump has confirmed he will impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada from February, but said his administration was yet to determine whether oil imports would be included. In Europe, the European Central Bank confirmed expectations of a quarter-point interest rate cut Thursday, bringing its main rate to 2.75%. German gross domestic product declined 0.2% in the final quarter of the year amid continuing weakness in its industrial sector. News from Asia, investors continue to monitor commentary on Chinese artificial intelligence firm DeepSeek — which rocked markets on Monday with the possibility of much cheaper AI mode.

Markets maintained its upward bias for the fourth straight session as benchmark indices notched up splendid gains ahead of the important Budget announcement with strong global cues too aiding the sentiment.

Equity markets received a boost after the ECB cut interest rates by 25 bps which also softened US bond yields. Traders will be focussed on the Budget and steps the government will announce to boost the economy.

The last day of the month belongs to the Bulls as from the beginning itself, the Index progressed towards the north and at regular intervals compounded its gains to close at 23,508.40 with gains of 258.90 points. All the sectors ended in green with Energy and FMCG being the major outperformers. Mid and Smallcap space advanced by 1.89% & 2.11% and outshined the Frontline Index.

With a strong bullish candle, the Index has confirmed its Falling Wedge Formation breakout but with the Union Budget announcement tomorrow, there could be high volatility.

The undertone will remain positive with the downside being protected at 23,400 while on the higher side, 23,740-23,860 will be considered as a strong resistance zone.

Indian rupee ended flat at 86.61 per dollar on Friday versus Thursday's close of 86.62.

Indian benchmark indices ended higher for the fourth consecutive session on January 31 with Nifty above 23,500 amid buying across the sectors ahead of Union Budget.

At close, the Sensex was up 740.76 points or 0.97 percent at 77,500.57, and the Nifty was up 258.90 points or 1.11 percent at 23,508.40. About 2635 shares advanced, 1131 shares declined, and 120 shares unchanged.

Biggest gainers on the Nifty included Tata Consumer, Trent, Bharat Electronics, Nestle India, L&T, while losers were Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Apollo Hospitals, JSW Steel.

All the sectoral indices ended in the green with Consumer Durables, oil & gas, power, PSU, realty, FMCG up 2 percent each, while Capital Goods index up nearly 4 percent.

BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices gained nearly 2 percent each.

#1 Q3 core fee income and QoQ improvement in credit costs offset pressure in NIM

#2 Asset quality was healthy

#3 Change EPS estimates by +4/-2.6/-3.6 percent for FY25/26/27 respectively

#4 Cut is to build in further pressure on NIM

#5 EPS growth outlook remains muted

#1 Adjusted EBITDA was in-line in q3

#2 Cut FY25 forecast & expect consensus to do so also

#3 Core new premium growth slowed more than expected, from slower savings

#4 Steep valuation keeps us underweight

#1 Q3 revenue in-line but EBITDA/profit below estimates

#2 Company now intends to focus on expanding its presence in Southern India

#3 Has not undertaken any price increases in recent past & no intention in near future

#4 Recent stock correction presents limited downside risk

Indian Rupee declined today on month end dollar demand from importers and FII outflows. A positive tone in the US Dollar also pressurised the Rupee. However, positive domestic markets cushioned the downside. US Dollar strengthened as ECB cut interest rates by 25 bps which weakened the Euro.

We expect Rupee to trade with negative bias on strength in the US Dollar and persistent FII outflows. Month end Dollar demand from importers may also weigh on the Rupee. Uncertainty over tariffs by the US administration, may also pressurise the Rupee. However, any central bank intervention may support the Rupee. Traders may take cues from core PCE price index data from US. Investors may remain cautious ahead of the Union Budget of February 1. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 86.40 to Rs 87.

#1 Q3 was in-line with expectations

#2 Growth to gradually improve as rural improves & urban is near bottoming out

#3 Gradual pickup in sales is expected

#4 HPC sales +5.7 percent; healthcare -1.3 percent while beverages was -10.3 percent

#5 Margin to also improve gradually

In December, we assessed the market conditions and determined that valuations were exuberant, signaling a cautious stance on equities. Our analysis considered various macroeconomic factors, corporate earnings trends, and market sentiment, leading us to take a strategic position in anticipation of potential corrections or increased volatility.

The markets had been experiencing a prolonged rally, driven by liquidity inflows, strong corporate earnings, and optimism surrounding economic growth. However, key indicators suggested that valuations were stretched, with price-to-earnings ratios exceeding historical averages and certain sectors showing signs of overheating. In such an environment, we emphasized a prudent investment approach, focusing on capital preservation and selective stock picking.

#1 Strong delivery in core; high volume growth in tea, strong price hike to boost overall growth

#2 OPM to improve going forward on the back of price hikes

#3 Stock trades at 46x FY27 EPS

The Economic Survey summarises the challenges facing the Indian economy, with more headwinds than tailwinds listed. It may be challenging to achieve the projected growth rate of 6.3–6.8%, given that growth in the fast lane is predicated on difficult deregulation and reforms at grass-roots level. The survey hints at continued fiscal consolidation in the upcoming budget and at nudging the Monetary Policy Committee for policy support towards the growth engine in FY26.

QIB - 4.19 times

NII - 0.29 times

Retail - 0.34 times

Employee – 0.24 times

Reservation – 0.39 times

Overall – 1.37 times

#1 For Q3, profit was ahead of estimates aided by lower provisions

#2 While loan growth of 12 percent was healthy, NII growth of 3 percent was softened by margin fall

#3 Feel bank's higher domestic LDR might limit loan growth as domestic deposit growth is softer

#4 Asset quality stays stable with low credit cost

#1 Company reported robust premium growth & EBITDA margin expansion in Q3

#2 Core-operating performance was in-line

#3 Medium-term outlook on business growth & profitability remains healthy

#4 Estimate FY25-28 CAGR of 27 percent in revenue, EBITDA margin of 18 percent & profit margin of 17 percent by FY28

#1 Net Profit Up 26.5% At Rs147.7 Cr Vs Rs116.8 Cr (YoY)

#2 Revenue Up 15.8% At Rs653.4 Cr Vs Rs564.3 Cr (YoY)

#3 EBITDA Down 24% At Rs92.2 Cr Vs Rs121.3 Cr (YoY)

#4 Margin At 14.1% Vs 21.5% (YoY)

The Sensex was up 643.55 points or 0.84 percent at 77,403.36, and the Nifty was up 234.20 points or 1.01 percent at 23,483.70. About 2407 shares advanced, 1049 shares declined, and 93 shares unchanged.

#1 Results sharply miss estimates on lower gas marketing & petchem profitability

#2 Gas transmission EBIT was 4 percent below estimates & declined 2 percent QoQ

#3 Adjusted gas marketing EBIT was sharply below estimate

#4 LPG/LHC segment EBIT was below estimates

#5 Trades at attractive valuations of 10x FY27 P/E

QIB - 3.28 times

NII - 0.25 times

Retail - 0.32 times

Employee – 0.23 times

Reservation – 0.35 times

Overall – 1.11 times

#1 Q3 earnings led by revived momentum in chemicals business after 6 quarters of disappointment

#2 EBITDA beat estimate by 6.3 percent, largely led by margin expansion in chemicals business to 24.3 percent

#3 Packaging films reported a stable performance in a tough scenario

#4 Likely margin improvements in chemicals business due to better ref-gas prices, which now seems sustainable

#1 Q3 EBITDA 4 percent above estimates driven by higher SEZ income

#2 Management maintained their 10-14 percent YoY volume growth guidance for FY25

#3 10-14 percent YoY volume growth guidance for FY25 implies 17-35 percent YoY rise in Q4

#4 EBITDA guidance was raised & was above estimates

#5 Logistics potential is a sweetener

QIB 3.20 times

NII 0.21 times

Retail 0.31 times

Employee – 0.22 times

Reservation – 0.33 times

Overall – 1.07 times

The upcoming budget is expected to focus on welfare measures, agriculture, and infrastructure development, alongside a continued push for manufacturing under the PLI (Production Linked Incentive) scheme. Sectors such as agriculture, agrochemicals, infrastructure, and capital goods could see significant benefits. Additionally, renewable energy and healthcare may also gain attention as part of broader structural reforms.

Investors can position themselves by looking at quality stocks in these sectors, particularly companies with strong fundamentals that are well-aligned with government policies. Agriculture-focused funds, infrastructure ETFs, or stocks of leading players in agrochemicals and capital goods could offer opportunities. Additionally, staying diversified across these themes while monitoring the budget announcements can help investors capitalize effectively.

Prashant Kumar has resigned as Chief Financial Officer of the company, effective January 30.

#1 Retail inflation will align progressively with the target

#2 Near-Term global growth expected to be a bit lower than trend level

#3 Trade outlook remains clouded in the next Year

#4 On domestic front, rebounding rural demand augurs well for consumption

#5 Global commodity prices expected to decline, potentially easing core & food inflation

The company’s joint venture has received an EPC contract worth Rs 631.2 crore from the Public Works Department, Manipur. The order involves the construction of rigid pavement and lined drains on selected roads under the Imphal East Division (ED – 2) – Package 3. Ircon’s share in the contract is 26%, and AMRIL’s share is 74%.

Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman tabled the Economic Survey in the Lok Sabha on Day 1 of Budget Session of Parliament.

The logistics company has received an order worth Rs 170 crore from Hindustan Zinc for the movement of finished goods, zinc, and lead ingots from its smelting complexes at Chanderiya Lead Zinc Smelter, Zinc Smelter Debari, Dariba Smelting Complex (Rajasthan), and Pantnagar Metal Plant (Uttarakhand) to Mundra, Pipavav, and Mumbai ports and HZL’s depots and customer sites across India.

The company has received an order from the Office of the Principal Commissioner, Bihar imposing a penalty amounting to Rs 10,78,78,034 for (i) Taxability of commercial Credit Notes and (ii) availment and utilization of input tax from suppliers who have not filed GSTR-3B before the due date of entitlement to avail input tax credit.

The company’s subsidiary, Torrent Saurya Urja 2, has received a certificate from the Gujarat Energy Development Agency for the commissioning of its full capacity of 300 MW, effective December 15, 2024.

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, IndusInd Bank, Sun Pharmaceutical, Nestle India, Punjab National Bank, Bandhan Bank, UPL, Vedanta, Aster DM Healthcare, Cholamandalam Investment, City Union Bank, Equitas Small Finance Bank, Five-Star Business Finance, Flair Writing Industries, Godrej Agrovet, Inox Wind, IRB Infrastructure Developers, Jubilant Pharmova, Jyothy Labs, Karnataka Bank, LIC Housing Finance, Marico, Pfizer, Poonawalla Fincorp, and Vishal Mega Mart will release their quarterly earnings on January 31.

#1 After an unexciting CY24, company looks set to return to a strong profit growth trajectory

#2 Company’s profit growth trajectory is materially above peers

#3 Strong profit growth outlook and attractive valuations makes us constructive at current prices

#4 Expect FY25-27 revenue & EPS CAGR of 18 percent and 46 percent, respectively

Jsquare Electrical Steel Nashik, a wholly owned subsidiary of JSW JFE Electrical Steel, has completed the acquisition of 100% equity interest in thyssenkrupp Electrical Steel India for Rs 4,158.6 crore.

The associated technology package from the thyssenkrupp group has been licensed/transferred to the company.

JSW JFE Electrical Steel is a 50:50 joint venture between JSW Steel and JFE Steel Corporation.

Etihad Airways has selected Wipro for IT transformation and cost optimization. As part of the five-year contract, the company’s FullStride Cloud will deliver a customized cloud-based solution that will provide Etihad Airways with real-time insights into their resource utilization and improve operational agility and scalability for their global operations.

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, IndusInd Bank, Sun Pharmaceutical, Nestle India, Punjab National Bank, Bandhan Bank, UPL, Vedanta, Aster DM Healthcare, Cholamandalam Investment, City Union Bank, Equitas Small Finance Bank, Five-Star Business Finance, Flair Writing Industries, Godrej Agrovet, Inox Wind, IRB Infrastructure Developers, Jubilant Pharmova, Jyothy Labs, Karnataka Bank, LIC Housing Finance, Marico, Pfizer, Poonawalla Fincorp, and Vishal Mega Mart will release their quarterly earnings on January 31.

#1 Significant operational beat in Q3

#2 FY25 earnings up 8%; expect heavy ordering in Q4

#3 Management remains conservative with no change in guidance for sales/margin

#4 Raise FY25 EBITDA margin/EPS by 200 bps/8% to reflect significant beat in Q3

#5 Stock currently trades at 30x FY27 EPS

KPI Green Energy has successfully signed contract agreement with Coal India to develop a 300 MWAC grid-connected ground-mounted solar PV plant with Operation & Maintenance (O&M) services for five years at GIPCL’s Solar Park in Khavda, Gujarat. The contract price is Rs 1,311.40 crore, with completion expected by November 2025.

#1 Profit jumps 11 percent to Rs 233 crore Vs Rs 210 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue grows 4 percent to Rs 1,146 crore Vs Rs 1,105 crore, YoY

#1 Profit increases 7.2 percent to Rs 83.6 crore Vs Rs 78 crore, YoY

#2 Revenue rises 21.2 percent to Rs 606.2 crore Vs Rs 500.1 crore, YoY