Closing Bell: Sensex down 319 pts, Nifty around 24,950; realty outperforms

Indian equity indices ended on negative note with Nifty below 25,000 on October 16. At close, the Sensex was down 318.76 points or 0.39 percent at 81,501.36, and the Nifty was down 86 points or 0.34 percent at 24,971.30.

We wrap up today's edition of the Moneycontrol live market blog, and will be back tomorrow morning with all the latest updates and alerts. Please visit https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/global-indices for all the global market action.

Indian equity indices ended on negative note with Nifty below 25,000 on October 16. At close, the Sensex was down 318.76 points or 0.39 percent at 81,501.36, and the Nifty was down 86 points or 0.34 percent at 24,971.30.

We wrap up today's edition of the Moneycontrol live market blog, and will be back tomorrow morning with all the latest updates and alerts. Please visit https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/global-indices for all the global market action.

The Nifty has slipped after a brief consolidation on the hourly time frame, suggesting increasing bearish sentiment among traders. The recent weakness has led Nifty below the 38.20% retracement of the previous rise from 24,694 to 25,212.

Sentiment now appears slightly bearish, with immediate support at 24,900. A break below this level could intensify the weakness, potentially dragging Nifty down to 24,700. On the upside, 25,000 remains a strong resistance; only a decisive breakout above this level may trigger a directional rally in the market.

Nifty opened mildly in the red and traded with a negative bias throughout the day to close in the red down ~86 points. On the daily charts we can observe that the Nifty has been trading in the range of 24900 – 25200 since the last six trading sessions. We expect this price action to continue over the next couple of trading sessions. A decisive break on either side shall lead to trending moves in that particular direction. We expect this consolidation to breakout on the upside and target levels 25360 – 25500.

Bank Nifty has been comparatively strong and is holding on to the key hourly moving averages and trending higher. Though it closed in the negative today the undertone still remains bullish. Positive momentum is likely to continue towards 52500 which coincides with the 20-day average. Support base is placed at 51400 – 51500.

Markets were range-bound with a negative bias as investors mostly resorted to selective profit-taking, particularly in banking, IT and auto stocks. While weak global market cues also contributed to the overall weakness, persistent offloading of domestic shares by foreign investors this month have made local traders jittery and are mostly adopting a cautious approach.

The national market traded range bound with a negative bias due to the fear of a downgrade in FY25 earnings, which could impact the sustainability of premium valuation. The participants are expecting only a slow pace in earnings expansion in Q2FY25 due to insipid demand and volatility in input prices. The rate of recovery in Q2 compared to Q1 is below expectation.

After a tepid opening, Index tested its lower end of consolidation followed by a swift recovery; however, towards the end, recovery gains fizzled out and ended the session at 24,971.30 with a loss of 86.05 points. Barring Energy and Realty, all the other sectors ended in the red where Auto and IT were the major laggards. Mid and Smallcaps managed to outperform the Frontline Index.

The Index continued to oscillate in a well-maintained range of 24,920-25,200 and a directional breakout is a must for a clear trend.

Indian rupee ended higher at 83.99 per dollar on Wednesday versus Tuesday's close of 84.03.

Indian equity indices ended on negative note with Nifty below 25,000 on October 16.

At close, the Sensex was down 318.76 points or 0.39 percent at 81,501.36, and the Nifty was down 86 points or 0.34 percent at 24,971.30. About 1935 shares advanced, 1846 shares declined, and 105 shares unchanged.

Trent, M&M, Hero MotoCorp, Infosys and Adani Ports were among the top losers on the Nifty, while gainers included HDFC Life, Dr Reddy's Labs, Grasim Industries, Bharti Airtel and HDFC Bank.

Among sectors, oil & gas, realty, telecom indices ended in the green, while auto, IT, pharma and media down 0.5-1 percent.

The BSE midcap ended flat and smallcap index rose 0.3 percent.

QIB – 0.14 times

NII – 0.22 times

Retail – 0.37 times

Employee Reserved – 1.25 times

Overall – 0.28 times

PC Jeweller shares hit the upper circuit limit in Wednesday's trading session after the company allotted 4.35 lakh equity shares on conversion of fully convertible warrants. Read More

Indian Rupee is trading on a flat note. Weak domestic markets and a surge in the US Dollar index weighed on the Rupee. However, weak tone in crude oil prices cushioned the downside. Dollar index is trading at a two-week high. Pound Sterling fell to a two-month low amid softer-than-expected inflation data from UK, raising odds of a rate cut by the Bank of England.

We expect Rupee to trade with a negative bias on strong Dollar, FII outflows and weak tone in the domestic markets. However, soft crude oil prices and contained geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may support the Rupee at lower levels. Traders may take cues retail sales data from the US this week. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 83.85 to Rs 84.30.

The Sensex was down 261.92 points or 0.32 percent at 81,558.20, and the Nifty was down 75.80 points or 0.30 percent at 24,981.50.

#1 For Q2 VNB was largely in-line with estimates

#2 VNB margin was tad weak as delayed yield-reset in non-par segment impacted margin by 100 bps

#3 Yield-reset in non-par segment should normalise from Q3

#4 Premium growth was led by ULIPs & rebound in non-par; HDFC Bank channel grew >20 percent

#5 Transition to new norms should have manageable impact on margin & improve competitive intensity

#6 Trim VNB slightly but still see 15 percent CAGR over FY24-27

QIB – 0.12 times

NII – 0.21 times

Retail – 0.36 times

Employee Reserved – 1.23 times

Overall – 0.27 times

#1 Expect EBITDA/EPS to rise at a CAGR 16 percent/ 78 percent respectively over FY24-27

#2 EBITDA/EPS driven by increase in mobile ARPU, growth in broadband subscribers

#3 Margin expansion to help in EBITDA/EPS growth

#4 Expect capex intensity to decline, FCF to improve & net debt/EBITDA to decline to 1.5x By FY26

Shares of Nestle India were among the worst hit on the Nifty 50, down around 2 percent ahead of its quarterly earnings, due to be released on October 17. According to a Moneycontrol poll, Nestle India is likely to report a 6 percent on-year jump in revenue at Rs 5,336 crore while net profit is likely to fall 2 percent to Rs 888 crore in the June quarter.

September Trade Data

India September Trade Deficit At $20.78 Bn Vs $20.08 Bn (YoY)

India September Exports At $34.58 Bn Vs $34.41 Bn (YoY)

India September Imports At $55.36 Bn Vs $54.49 Bn (YoY)

#1 Journey for Bankex derivative has been smooth, 450+ brokers trading this products now

#2 450 brokers & 150 FPIs are trading the Bankex product now

#3 Believe market participants will show same amount of trust even in monthly products for Bankex

#4 Volumes for Sensex derivatives are higher than those for Bankex

QIB – 0.09 times

NII – 0.20 times

Retail – 0.35 times

Employee Reserved – 1.20 times

Overall – 0.25 times

#1 Q2 PBT growth led by topline growth from sustained momentum in equity QAAUM & uptick in yields

#2 Higher one-time tax outflow (for legacy gains) led to slightly moderate PAT growth at +32 percent YoY

#1 All ingredients in place to rank among the top 5 real estate players in India

#2 Peg cumulative GDV of project pipeline at Rs 90,000 crore

#3 Expect pre-sales growth of +87 percent YoY/33 percent YoY in FY25/FY26

#4 RE segment to be OCF-positive from FY25F and FCF-positive from FY27-FY28

#5 Net debt/ equity to peak at comfortable 1.1x (Vs 0.5x in FY24)

#1 Maintain reduce call due to rich valuation & high leverage (12x FY26 net debt/EBITDA)

#2 Company is exposed to risk of further equity dilution if it is unable to pay all its statutory dues

#1 Think Jio is better placed to capture home broadband opportunity

#2 Expect Jio to capture 45 percent market share in home broadband by FY30 (vs 28 percent as of FY24)

#1 Q2 revenue & EBITDA numbers were ahead of estimates

#2 Cut FY25-27 revenue/EBITDA estimate 4-9 percent but still forecast 12-17 percent revenue/EBITDA CAGRs

#3 PVR Inox continues to expand and has 1,745 screens after adding 66 in H1

#1 Q2 operating profit was in-line

#2 Profit before tax beat estimate via higher other income

#3 Profit was lower owing to higher taxes caused by changes in the Union Budget

#4 A key positive was the rise in yields QoQ as it rationalised commissions

#5 Elevated valuation keeps us at equal-weight

#1 VNB margin decline in H1FY25 driven by a shift in product mix towards ULIPs

#2 Company says the dynamic situation in insurance ecosystem will take another quarter to settle

#3 HDFC Life has indicated 18-20 percent APE growth & 15-17 percent VNB growth for FY25

#4 Given strong 23 percent YoY growth in H1FY25, lift FY25 APE growth to 20 percent

#6 Expect VNB growth of 12 percent only as have limited clarity on margin

#1 Industry volumes down by 2.9 percent MoM in Sep’24, in-line with seasonal trends

#2 Zomato vs Swiggy: push and pull continued into Q2FY25

#3 Estimate Zomato's Q2FY25 GMV growth at 7 percent QoQ

QIB – 0.08 times

NII – 0.19 times

Retail – 0.34 times

Employee Reserved – 1.17 times

Overall – 0.24 times

Bajaj Auto, L&T Technology Services, Aditya Birla Money, CRISIL, Accelya Solutions India, Aditya Forge, Citizen Infoline, Hi-Tech Winding Systems, Himadri Speciality Chemical, Mphasis, Nutraplus India, Pasari Spinning Mills, Pondy Oxides & Chemicals, Rajnish Wellness, Sai Industries, Saptak Chem and Business, Shah Metacorp, Tips Music, and Vivid Mercantile will announce their quarterly earnings on October 16.

Shares of Sterlite Technologies surged 6 percent to Rs 128 on October 16 after the company showcased its latest AI-driven data centre solutions at the India Mobile Congress 2024.

The telecom firm launched a portfolio of optical fibre products to support the rapid growth of AI infrastructure in data centres, which require greater fibre density as they shift to GPU-based servers.

The company has launched two Unlicensed Band Radio (UBR) products, which include (a) a 1 Gbps small form factor 4G/5G backhauling radio offering unprecedented spectral and power efficiency, and (b) an energy-efficient 2 Gbps point-to-multipoint rural connectivity UBR.

The company has received a work order from the Maharashtra Housing and Area Development Authority for a project amounting to Rs 79.84 crore. The project involves selecting a service provider (cloud hosting and managed service) to set up, migrate, and manage a data center and disaster recovery site for MHADA on the cloud.

The company has transferred two wholly owned subsidiaries of PFC Consulting—Jamnagar Transmission and Navinal Transmission—to Adani Energy Solutions for Rs 19.3 crore and Rs 19.14 crore, respectively.

PFC Consulting is a subsidiary of Power Finance Corporation.

Jamnagar Transmission was established for the development of a network expansion scheme in Gujarat for the drawl of about 3.6 GW load under Phase-I in the Jamnagar area, and Navinal Transmission was established for the development of a network expansion scheme in Navinal (Mundra), Gujarat, for the drawal of power in the area.

The non-banking financial company has launched its Rooftop Solar Finance product under MSME loans. It has partnered with Credit Fair, a renewable energy fintech, to onboard customers digitally to avail loans and aims to build a separate loan book of Rs 1,000 crore in the coming years.

QIB – 0.05 times

NII – 0.18 times

Retail – 0.33 times

Employee Reserved – 1.13 times

Overall – 0.23 times

UGRO Capital signed a commitment letter with the United States International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) for a USD 40 million (approx. Rs 3300 million) loan.

The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) is supporting this transaction by committing its staff resources and linking its technical programs to support inclusive and sustainable economic growth.

Capitalmind Financial Services has studied the top 30 IPOs by offer size and the returns an investor buying at the IPO price and holding would have made compared with the CNX500 index. This includes the impact of dividends and assuming they were reinvested in the stock.

According to the study by Capitalmind Financial Services, 19 of the top 30 IPOs by size have failed to generate excess returns when compared to the returns from CNX500 index. Anoop Vijaykumar, Investments & Head of Research, Capitalmind Financial Services said, “Overall, big IPOs have struggled to deliver excess returns for the investors. IPOs abound in bull markets since they get optimistic valuations and most late-stage bull markets are characterised by a few large IPOs which tend to be valued optimistically. When the earnings growth to justify those valuations does not materialise combined with a mean-reversion in broader markets, high-profile IPOs end up delivering lower than expected returns.”

Investors keen on Waaree Energies' upcoming initial public offering (IPO) have taken note of the significant rise in its grey market premium (GMP), which has soared to over 85 percent just days before the issue opens for subscription.

The IPO, set to launch next week, is garnering strong demand in the unofficial market, signalling positive sentiment among potential investors.

The grey market premium, a key indicator of market interest in an IPO before it officially lists, has jumped in the range of Rs 1250 to Rs 1280 in recent days. Waaree Energies has fixed a price band of Rs 1427-1503 per share.

The IPO will open for subscription on October 21 and will remain available to investors until October 23. Anchor bidding is scheduled to begin on October 18. Following the closure, the allotment of shares will be finalised on October 24, with refunds initiated and shares credited to demat accounts by October 25. The company is expected to make its stock market debut on October 28. Read More

Shares of Aditya Birla Real Estate rose close to 4 percent and hit a record high of Rs 2,967 after brokerage firm Nomura initiated coverage on the company with a ‘buy’ rating citing its strong fundamentals and promising growth prospects. The brokerage has set a target price of Rs 3,700 for the stock, suggesting a potential upside of over 29 percent from Tuesday's closing level.

It believes that Aditya Birla Real Estate, the real estate arm of Century Textiles, possesses all the qualities needed to become one of India’s top five real estate players. Nomura estimates the cumulative Gross Development Value (GDV) of the company's project pipeline to exceed Rs 900 billion, with Aditya Birla Real Estate's share projected at Rs 765 billion. The company has achieved pre-sales of Rs 90 billion in FY25 to date.

RateGain Travel Technologies today announced a strategic technology integration with TCA Software Solutions, a leading provider of Property Management Systems (PMS) for the hospitality industry.

The Sensex was down 65.42 points or 0.08 percent at 81,754.70, and the Nifty was down 20 points or 0.08 percent at 25,037.30.

The company has received a Letter of Award for a solar power developer (SPD) for solar photovoltaic power generating stations with a total capacity of 32 MW (AC) under Component C of the PM-KUSUM scheme. Its scope of work will include power generation, while the Maharashtra State Electricity Distribution Company will purchase the power generated from the project for 25 years from the scheduled commercial operation date.