Closing Bell: Indices end on weak note; Sensex falls 420 pts, Nifty ends below 22,800

This is part of an ongoing correction that has been playing out for several months. The market has yet to establish a bottom on a higher timeframe, and there are no positive triggers to arrest this decline in the near future.

We are done with the Union Budget, and the RBI policy has also been announced. Additionally, global market cues have not been supportive. In fact, they have acted as a spoilsport, even for short-term relief rallies. Combining these macro factors with the prevailing technical weakness suggests that markets could move even lower in the coming sessions.

The last support level we mentioned was 22,900 on futures. Once that was breached early in the trading session, the market saw a sharp decline below 22,900. That was the threshold for short-term traders to go short. From there, we witnessed a nearly 200-point drop, bringing Nifty futures down to approximately 22,700-22,750.

Looking ahead, the next visible support levels on the charts for Nifty futures are 22,700 in the extreme near term and 22,500 over multiple days. This view will remain valid as long as Nifty futures trade below the 23,150 resistance level, keeping the bias on the downside.

Rupee traded weak by 0.05Rs at 86.70 despite dollar index slipping to 106.60$, as FII selling continued, keeping pressure on the currency. Additionally, reports of a potential reduction in import taxes on EVs added further strain on the rupee, as it could impact trade balances.

Going forward, rupee is expected to trade in a range of 86.45-87.10, with global sentiment and capital flows playing a key role in determining direction.

The domestic market continued to exhibit broad-based weakness, primarily influenced by investor concerns over the hawkish tone of the FOMC minutes, which signalled prolonged higher interest rates that could constrain liquidity in EMs. Although the market has undergone a healthy correction, the uncertainties surrounding the gradual recovery of corporate earnings and ongoing tariff-related risks continue to cast doubt on valuation levels, particularly in the broader market. India is currently lagging behind its Asian peers, as FII outflows remain high, with the "sell India, buy China" strategy continuing to yield returns for the time being.

The market struggled to hold onto early gains, with the Nifty closing below 22,800 for the first time since June 5, 2024, and the Sensex dropping 425 points to 75,311. Nifty Bank slipped 353 points to 48,981, while the Midcap index fell 648 points to 50,486, snapping its two-day relief rally. Barring Nifty Metal, all sectoral indices ended in the red, with Nifty Auto being the worst performer, dragged down by M&M’s nearly 7 percent slump—its sharpest fall in seven months. Nifty Auto also logged its 11th loss in the last 13 sessions. Nifty FMCG extended its losing streak to 15 sessions.

Despite the weak market, Religare surged over 18 percent as the Burman family took control, while metal stocks gained on positive comments from Tata Steel’s MD. JSW Infra jumped nearly 8 percent on a favorable brokerage note, and L&T Technology rose almost 3 percent after a double upgrade from Macquarie. Meanwhile, PSU banks saw profit booking, with PNB and IDBI Bank slipping nearly 2 percent each. REC and PFC pared losses but ended in the red after reports of a potential government bailout. Market breadth remained weak, with the advance-decline ratio at 1:2.

Rupee ends at 86.71/$ against Thursday’s close of 86.66/$

As of March 2020, the number of unique participants were 4.4 crore. As of Jan 2025, this number has crossed 13 crore. 13 crore is still a long way to go, because the number of pancard holders in India are 60 crore. One areas where a lot of money should flow in is startups. If we have to create the next Deepseek, we need to make sure that green field projects should come in.

Indian Rupee declined today on weak domestic markets and a recovery in the US Dollar index. However, weak crude oil prices cushioned the downside. We expect Rupee to trade with negative on the back of weak domestic markets and selling pressure by FIIs. A bounce back in the US Dollar pressurise the Rupee further. However, any fresh intervention by the RBI and weak tone in crude oil prices may support the Rupee at lower levels. Traders may take cues from PMI, existing home sales and revised consumer sentiment data from the US. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 86.50 to Rs 87.

CDSL share price gained in February 21 trade as its peer depository firm NSDL is targeting to launch its much awaited Rs 3,000-crore initial public offering (IPO) by next month.

"Our dates are expiring next month. We are rushing against time to get things done fast. We will try (to launch the IPO before that)," the official told PTI.

NSDL received approval from Sebi for its IPO in September last year. According to reports, NSE, State Bank of India (SBI), and HDFC Bank plan to sell 5.72 crore equity shares through a complete offer for sale (OFS).

Last week, NSDL reported a 30 per cent rise in its net profit for the December quarter, reaching Rs 85.8 crore compared to Rs 66.09 crore in the same period last year. Its total income grew 16.2 per cent to Rs 391.21 crore during the October-December 2024 quarter.

#1 Most Countries Prioritize Self-Interest; Must Take A Long-term View On Supply Chain Optimisation

#2 US Tariffs Affect India’s Exports Directly & Will Affect Indirectly Via Changes In Global Prices

#3 India Needs A Policy To Manage Manufacturing Risks From Trade Shifts

#4 Government Is Addressing Safeguard Duty Concerns; News Expected Soon

#5 China Exports Over 100 mt Of Steel, Worsened By US Actions

#7 India’s Modern Plants Excel At Steel Pdn, But Pricing Pressure Remains A Challenge

#8 Chinese Steel Firms Lose Money; India’s Private Sector Needs Profits To Grow

#9 India’s Iron Ore Abundance Offers A Steel Production Edge

#10 After Acquisitions, Will Shift Focus To Organic Growth For 10-15 Years

Shares of Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency (IREDA) - a non-deposit taking NBFC into financing green projects - jumped over 4 percent on February 21 on strong investor interest, with volumes nearly three-times higher than its 10-day average.

IREDA's shares have managed to post strong gains for the third consecutive session, in a weak market, rising nearly 13 percent from the closing price of February 18.

The recent rally in the stock was fuelled by NSE's decision of adding the scrip in the F&O contracts from February 28 onwards. Investors will be able to trade in the F&O contracts of IREDA from the March series, after the current series expires on February 27.

I am proud of the two institutions the industry has established—the clearing corporations and the backstop facility fund.

With a small SIP, they’ve been crafted with great care. Designed for long-term use, I’m confident the industry will embrace them. The launch is set for March.

The Sensex was down 434.96 points or 0.57 percent at 75,301.00, and the Nifty was down 135.60 points or 0.59 percent at 22,777.55. About 1547 shares advanced, 1747 shares declined, and 134 shares unchanged.

When we think about investor education and responsible investing, we believe that there should be a systematic opportunity available though which they can participate.

Today AMFI is the aspiration for every industry association in the country. It has brought maturity in the process of cocreation.

With chhoti SIP, we are breaking myths. This includes myths that SIP is for affluent and is difficult to understand. With this, we are taking "ghar ghar SIP" for everyone.

Chhota SIP tries to sachetise SIPs. I am sure this initiative will make a big impact like what we saw with Jan Dhan years ago. This proposition came together due to collaboration between the industry and SEBI.

#1 Have around Rs 2000 crore orders in hand

#2 Second tower unit to add 33000 tonnes per year capacity

Amid mixed global cues, the Indian indices opened marginally lower on February 21 with Nifty around 22900.

The Sensex was down 44 points or 0.06 percent at 75,683, and the Nifty was down 6.4 points or 0.01 percent at 22,906. About 1188 shares advanced, 789 shares declined, and 186 shares unchanged.

Benchmark indices are trading marginally lower in the pre-opening session.

The Sensex was down 125 points or 0.16 percent at 75,612, and the Nifty was down 60 points or 0.26 percent at 22,853.70.

The Indian rupee strengthened marginally against the US dollar. The currency was trading higher at 86.55 a dollar, up 0.11 percent from its previous close of 86.67 a dollar.

UBS reiterates a ‘Buy’ on APL Apollo Tubes, citing positive channel checks and stronger-than-expected price hikes, particularly for larger diameter products.

The company’s Q4 EBITDA guidance of Rs4bn+ appears achievable, implying an EBITDA/ton of Rs4,500-5,000, exceeding the usual quarterly run rate (except Q2). Market share gains and improving demand further strengthen growth prospects, the brokerage said.

Brokerages Citi warns that Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) could face a challenging FY25 unless the government compensates them for LPG losses. While authorities have reaffirmed plans for compensation, investor sentiment remains cautious post-Budget.

If fully compensated, BPCL, HPCL, and IOCL are trading at FY25E P/Es of 6x/6x/9x, offering dividend yields of 6%/6%/4%, respectively. However, lack of compensation could severely impact earnings and weaken investor confidence, the brokerage said.

Brokerage Motilal Oswal remains bullish on the ports sector, expecting significant expansion, with India’s port capacity projected to grow by 500-550 MTPA annually between FY23-FY28.

The firm has a ‘Buy’ rating on Adani Ports (TP: Rs1,400) and JSW Infra (TP: Rs330), citing their potential to grow 2-3x faster than the industry over the next five years.

Motilal Oswal has maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on HDFC Bank, citing its steady progress toward normalized growth and profitability. The bank’s asset quality remains strong, with RoA expected to improve from FY27.

MOSL estimates HDFC Bank to deliver FY27 RoA/RoE of 1.8%/14.2%, while strong liability momentum and an expected moderation in interest rates are likely to support SA (savings account) growth.

Morgan Stanley has initiated an ‘Overweight’ rating on KEI Industries, citing its strong cables & wires (C&W) franchise and strategic positioning in the evolving energy theme. The firm highlights increased capex to meet rising domestic and export demand, projecting a 23% earnings CAGR from FY25-28.

Traders should brace for a volatile session, with aggressive long positions at Dalal Street being risky, akin to building on quicksand. Market concerns include Wall Street's overnight drop, looming Trump tariffs disrupting trade, persistent US inflation, and a cautious Fed approach on rate cuts. Bank Nifty (-0.48%) underperformed Nifty (-0.09%), with HDFC Bank (-2.32%) hit hard, while Nifty IT (-0.10%) remained sluggish. Technically, Nifty’s strength is confirmed only above 23000. Preferred trades are to sell Nifty (target 22500) and Bank Nifty (target 48100). LTIMindtree, HDFC Bank, and UltraTech Cement remain bearish.

BofA Securities has set a target price of Rs725 for Hindalco, noting a mixed near-term demand outlook but a positive long-term trajectory. BofA remains optimistic on Hindalco, citing structural energy cost reductions in upstream operations and attractive valuations as key growth drivers.

Investec has initiated coverage on Suzlon with a ‘Buy’ rating, citing the company’s strong position to benefit from the revival in the wind energy sector. The optimism is backed by Suzlon’s rapidly expanding order book of 5.5 GW, reinforcing growth prospects.

#1 Cipla says FDA inspected testing facility of unit in Mumbai

#1 Cipla gets US FDA nod for Chronic Myeloid Leukemia drug; US launch expected in FY26

#2 Narayana Health lays foundation stone for 1,100-bed super-speciality hospital in Kolkata

#3 Burman Group acquires control of Religare Enterprises; designated as promoters

#4 Grindwell Norton appoints Venugopal Shanbhag as MD with effect from April 2025

#5 JM Financial to get tax refund worth Rs 230 cr for assessment year 2008-09

#6 M&M Financial board approves raising funds up to Rs 3,000 cr via rights issue

#7 Mahindra Lifespace board approves raising funds up to Rs 1,500 cr via rights issue

#8 NTPC Green Energy inks MoU With Bharat Light And Power for achieving green objectives

#9 RVNL: Consortium with HFCL & Aerial Telecom signs project implementation agency agreement with BSNL

#10 CIE Automotive Q4CY25 net profit up 9.5%; revenue down 5.8% (YoY)

#11 Sanofi Consumer Q4 Net Profit down 34.8%; Revenue drops 24% (YoY)

#12 Delta Corp to sell DeltaTech Gaming to Head Digital Works in Rs 491 cr deal

#13 IOB gets administrative warning from SEBI for non-compliance with listing obligations & disclosure requirements

Asian stocks climbed, led by Chinese technology shares, after Alibaba Group posted its fastest revenue growth in over a year, boosting investor sentiment. Hong Kong and mainland China equities advanced, following gains in US-listed Chinese stocks on Alibaba’s earnings. Japanese markets rebounded after a weak start, while the dollar strengthened. Heng Seng up 1.5 percent, CSI 300 and Nikkei gained 0.1 percent each.

Meanwhile, the yen surged past 150, hitting its strongest level since December, amid speculation that the Bank of Japan could raise interest rates sooner. Traders now see an 84% probability of a 25-basis-point hike in July, up from 70% earlier this month, according to Bloomberg data.

Trends on GIFT Nifty indicate a negative start for the broader index in India, with a loss of 51.5 points or 0.22 percent. The Nifty futures were trading around 22,856.5 level.