Trading Plan: Will Nifty 50 sustain above 22,800, Bank Nifty hold 49,000?

Nifty Trading Plan

The formation of a strong bullish candlestick pattern with no wicks on either side on the daily charts, coupled with Nifty 50 consistently defending the 22,800 level on a closing basis for the past five sessions, raises the possibility of an upward move in the upcoming sessions. However, the overall sentiment remains in favour of the bears, so the sell-on-rise strategy will continue. If the index successfully reclaims and sustains 23,000, the 23,200 level can’t be ruled out. However, on the downside, below 22,800, the 22,700 level is the key support zone, according to experts. On the Bank Nifty front, as long as the index stays below 49,800, the consolidation may continue, with key support at 49,000–48,800 (which has consistently been held in past sessions). But above this level, 50,000 and 50,400 are the levels to watch.

On Thursday, February 20, the Nifty 50 dropped 20 points to close at 22,913 amid consolidation, while the Bank Nifty fell 236 points to 49,335. The market breadth remained positive, with a further rally in broader markets, as 1,883 shares advanced against 710 falling shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Hardik Matalia, Derivative Analyst at Choice Broking

On the daily chart, the Nifty index formed a full-bodied bullish candle, with the open near the day's low and the close near the day's high, showing no upper or lower wicks. This reflects strong buying momentum throughout the session, indicating that bulls were in complete control. However, for a sustained upside move, the index must break above key resistance levels; failure to do so could lead to consolidation or a pullback.

On the downside, 22,800 serves as a key support level, and a break below this mark could trigger further selling toward the 22,700–22,500 range. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 23,000, with a critical hurdle near 23,200. As long as the Nifty index trades below 23,200, a sell-on-rise approach is advised near resistance zones. Given the heightened market volatility, traders are advised to maintain strict stop-loss measures and avoid overnight positions to protect capital.

Key Resistance: 23,000, 23,200

Key Support: 22,800, 22,700

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures on a rise near the 23,000 level, with a stop-loss of 23,200 on a closing basis, for the target of 22,700–22,500.

Chandan Taparia, Head Derivatives & Technicals, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services

This week, the Nifty started on a weak note with a gap-down opening on Monday, hitting a fresh low of 22,725. However, the index managed to hold this level and witnessed a mild recovery, providing some relief to the bulls. Throughout the week, Nifty has repeatedly tested the 22,800 zone, bouncing back by 100–150 points in each of the last three sessions. This reflects support-based buying, but the absence of strong follow-up buying at higher levels suggests cautious sentiment in the market.

On the weekly chart, Nifty has formed a small-bodied bullish candle, indicating that while selling pressure persists, bulls are attempting to defend key support levels. Now, if it manages to cross and hold above the 22,950 zone, then a bounce could be seen toward 23,150, and then 23,333 levels. Support remains intact at 22,800 and 22,700 levels.

Key Resistance: 23,150, 23,333

Key Support: 22,700, 22,800

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips with support at 22,800 for an upside target toward 23,150/23,333 levels.

Virat Jagad, Senior Technical Research Analyst at Bonanza

Nifty formed a bullish candle on the daily chart. However, resistance at the downward-sloping trendline and selling pressure near the 50-day EMA indicate underlying market weakness. Additionally, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) facing resistance near the midline reinforces the bearish outlook. Collectively, these factors indicate the potential for a short-term pullback. However, the broader market sentiment remains bearish, with resistance levels capping upside momentum.

Key Resistance: 23,100, 23,300

Key Support: 22,800, 22,500

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures near 23,025 with a stop-loss of 23,150, targeting 22,750.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Hardik Matalia, Derivative Analyst at Choice Broking

The Bank Nifty continues to trade below its key moving averages, including the short-term (20-day), medium-term (50-day), and long-term (200-day) EMAs, indicating selling pressure at higher levels. As long as it remains below these levels, the overall sentiment stays sideways to bearish, favouring a sell-on-rise approach. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 49,500, with a stronger hurdle at 50,000. Any rise toward these levels could attract selling pressure. A decisive breakout above 50,000 is required to negate the bearish outlook and open the door for higher levels.

On the downside, 49,000 serves as immediate support, followed by 48,800. A break below these levels could accelerate selling pressure, leading the index toward the 48,500–48,000 range. Traders are advised to sell on a rise near resistance levels while maintaining strict stop-loss measures. Given the uncertain market environment, closely monitoring price action around key levels is crucial for determining the next directional move.

Key Resistance: 49,500, 50,000

Key Support: 49,000, 48,800

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures on a rise near 49,800 levels with a stop-loss of 50,000 on a closing basis, for the target of 48,800–48,000 levels.

Chandan Taparia, Head Derivatives & Technicals, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services

The Bank Nifty index formed an Inside bar on the daily scale as momentum is missing on either side and closed with losses near the 49,350 zone. Now it has to hold above 49,250 for a bounce toward 49,750, then 50,000 zones. On the downside, support is seen at 49,000 and 48,750 levels.

Key Resistance: 49,750, 50,000

Key Support: 48,500, 49,000

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips with support at 49,000 for an upside target toward 49,750/50,000 zones.

Virat Jagad, Senior Technical Research Analyst at Bonanza

The technical setup suggests that the banking sector may remain rangebound unless it sustains above the 50,000 mark, which could trigger further upside momentum.

Key Resistance: 50,500, 51,000

Key Support: 49,000, 48,500

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures above 49,500 with a stop-loss of 49,000 for the target of 50,500.