Closing Bell: Market ends with marginal losses; metals shine

Benchmark indices ended lower in the volatile session on October 16. At close, the Sensex was down 115.81 points or 0.17 percent at 66,166.93, and the Nifty was down 19.20 points or 0.10 percent at 19,731.80.

We wrap up today's edition of the Moneycontrol live market blog, and will be back tomorrow morning with all the latest updates and alerts. Please visit https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/global-indices/ for all the global market action.

Deven Mehata, Research Analyst at Choice Broking

After a flat to negative opening Nifty traded sideways for the day in a small range of 19690-19780 closed around the same level of opening forming a doji candlestick pattern on daily charts. Also Bank Nifty traded in a range for the day and closed at 44225.90.

The market has traded flat to negative with the Sensex losing 0.17 percent and closed at 66166.93 and Nifty was down by 0.10 percent intraday and closed at 19731.75 levels whereas Bank Nifty was down by 0.14 percent and settled at 44225.90.

Among sectors Nifty Auto, Nifty PSU Bank and Nifty Metal ended in green while Nifty Pharma, Nifty IT and Nifty FMCG ended on the lower side. In Nifty stocks, Hero MotoCorp, JSW Steel and Tata Steel were the top gainers while Divis Lab, Nestle India and TCS were the prime laggards.

India VIX was positive by 4.24 percent intraday and settled at 11.07.

Index has support around the 19600-19550 zone. Coming to the OI Data, on the call side, the highest OI observed at 19800 followed by 20000 strike prices while on the put side, the highest OI is at 19700 strike price. On the other hand, Bank Nifty has support at 43900-44000 while resistance is placed at 44500-44700 levels.

Ajit Mishra, SVP - Technical Research, Religare Broking:

Markets started the week on a muted note and ended marginally lower amid mixed cues. After the flat start, Nifty hovered in a narrow range and finally settled at 19731.75; down by 0.10%. Meanwhile, a mixed trend on the sectoral front kept the traders busy wherein metal and auto edged higher while pharma and realty witnessed profit taking. The broader indices outperformed the benchmark and closed marginally in the green.

We feel the muted action may continue in the index until we see alignment between the Nifty and the banking index. However, there is no shortage of trading opportunities across sectors, so participants should plan their positions accordingly.

Jatin Gedia – Technical Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas:

The Nifty opened on a flat note and consolidated in a narrow range to close the day marginally in the red down ~20 points. On the daily charts the Nifty today has formed an Inside Bar pattern which suggests consolidation and also makes the extremes of the range of the previous day candle crucial levels from short term perspective. In this case the extremes of the range are 19805 and 19635. A breach of this on either side shall lead to a trending move in that direction. The daily and hourly momentum indicators provide divergent signals and in such a scenario a consolidation appears high probability. Contraction of the Bollinger bands also supports our sideways outlook on the Index. The range of consolidation is likely to be 19500 – 20100 from short term perspective.

Bank Nifty has also halted its fall and is in the process of recovering. Today’s low around 44000 shall act as a pivot point and until that is not breached on the downside we can expect a pullback till 44800 – 45000 from short term perspective.

Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Research (Retail), Kotak Securities:

Markets continued to witness range-bound trend with a negative bias amid weak Asian cues as selective profit-taking was seen in banking, realty and IT stocks, whereas buying in metal, auto and consumer durable stocks helped markets curb losses.

Investors are trading cautiously in an uncertain global environment as ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict coupled with weak overseas fundamentals and persistent FII selling have dampened sentiment.

Technically, the Nifty hovered between 19700 to 19780, and has formed an inside body candle formation which is indicating incisiveness between the bulls and bears. For the bulls, 19800 would be the immediate breakout level, above the same the index could rally till 19850-19880. On the flip side, below 19700, the selling pressure is likely to accelerate and could retest the level of 19640-19620.

JUST IN | HDFC Bank Q2 net profit at Rs 15,976 crore and Net Interest income at Rs 27,385 crore.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services:

Persistent geopolitical tensions continue to weigh down the sentiment on equity, yet the mid- and small-cap index witnessed bargain hunting ahead of festival-driven demand and optimistic Q2 result. If the oil price moves higher in a sustained manner, it may elevate yields and operation cost, potentially straining margins in H2FY24. As the earnings season gets into full swing, investors will be more inclined to take a bottom-up approach to restructure their portfolios.

Rupee Close:

Indian rupee ended flat at 83.27 per dollar on Monday versus Friday's close of 83.26.

Market Close: Benchmark indices ended lower in the volatile session on October 16.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | HDFC Bank shares trading marginally lower ahead of its September quarter earnings

Stock Market LIVE Updates | The Tinplate Co. of India Q2 Earnings:

Net loss at Rs 2.3 crore against loss of Rs 35.1 crore and revenue down 2% at Rs 942 crore versus Rs 960 crore, YoY.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Jefferies On HDFC Life Insurance Company:

-Maintain buy call, target at Rs 800 per share
-APE & VNB growth of 7 percent & 4 percent YoY in Q2, were below estimates
-Forward-looking trends are more encouraging
-Wallet share in HDFC Bank has risen to 65 percent already
-Sales from agency can improve & other Banca partners are growing

Sensex Today | Mohammed Imran, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas:

Crude oil prices seen easing on Monday with WTI November futures trade $86/b as the large-scale ground assault has not begun after the 24-hour deadline that Israel first notified residents of the northern half of Gaza to flee to the south. Last week WTI oil prices gained 6% and Brent was up 7.5% as investors priced in the potential involvement of other oil producing nations involvement if the war escalates further. Iran’s direct involvement in conflict could derail possibility of additional supply of 1mbpd Iranian oil to worlds market, which would keep market condition tight. The Chinese September trade data showed 11% decline in oil import on MoM but 14% jump on annual basis.

We expect Chinese economy to stabilize in coming months that is a big positive for overall demand for industrial commodities. In short term prices could vary in either direction but given the resilient US economy and supply tightness by OPEC+ we expect crude oil to remain buy on dip counter. Crude oil prices are likely to trade in the range of USD 83-88.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Jefferies On Avenue Supermarts

-Retain hold rating, target raised to Rs 3,850 from Rs 3,700 per share
-Q2 EBITDA below estimates on lower gross margin & higher staff costs
-General merchandise & apparel mix remained muted
-H1 SSG at 8.6 percent is respectable, with improving footfalls
-Store additions remained muted but should see a ramp-up

Sensex Today | Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, CareEdge Ratings:

In September 2023, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) exhibited its sixth consecutive month of contraction, with decline of 0.3% YoY, lower than the previous month's contraction of 0.5% YoY. The decline in WPI for September can be attributed to a substantial deceleration in food prices and the continued YoY contraction in fuel prices and manufactured products prices.

With the support of high base fading, some uptick in WPI inflation numbers could be seen in the second half of the fiscal year. Elevated global crude oil prices and risk to kharif harvest from a skewed rainfall pose upside risks to WPI inflation. However, with weak China demand, other global commodity prices are expected to remain benign and that should keep WPI inflation low. For the full fiscal year (FY24), we expect WPI inflation to average below 1% in FY24.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | CLSA On ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company:

-Maintain buy call, target at Rs 700 per share
-ICICI Bank’s APE run-rate should translate into 1-10 percent YoY growth from Oct 2023
-Non-ICICI Bank channel closed H1FY24 with 6 percent YoY growth
-See Non-ICICI Bank channel growth at 8-15 percent YoY from Oct-Feb
-Low APE & VNB growth priced in at the current market price
-See limited downside risk for the stock

Sensex Today | Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas:

Indian Rupee is trading on a flat note on Monday. Risk aversion in global markets and surge in crude oil prices put downside pressure on the domestic currency. However, lower than expected WPI and some FII buying on Friday cushioned the downside. India’s WPI declined by 0.26% y-o-y in September 2023 versus forecast of 0.5%. US Dollar eased slightly after US and its allies are trying to step in the contain the Hamas-Israel conflict, which has waned some safe haven demand for the greenback.

We expect Rupee to trade with a slight negative bias as risk aversion in global markets and elevated crude oil prices may keep Rupee under pressure. However, ceasefire or truce talks may support Rupee. Traders may take cues from Empire State Manufacturing Index data from US. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 82.90 to Rs 83.70.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | CLSA On HDFC Life Insurance Company:

-Upgrade to outperform from underperform, target raised to Rs 725 from Rs 680 per share
-Flat YoY VNB margin of 26.2 percent in H1 on higher sales of lower margin products
-APE growth of 9 percent YoY in H1 driven by strong growth in protection/ULIP
-Share of non-par savings normalised to 28 percent versus 37 percent YoY
-Counter share in HDFC Bank rose to 62 percent versus 57 percent in Q1FY24
-Company is experiencing opposing themes in FY24
-See APE growth at 6 percent/14 percent in FY24/25-26 & flat margin (27.5 percent) for FY24
-Company continues to prove itself to be a steady performer

Sensex Today | Market at 3 PM

The Sensex was down 56.54 points or 0.09 percent at 66,226.20, and the Nifty was down 1.80 points or 0.01 percent at 19,749.20.  About 1836 shares advanced, 1480 shares declined, and 123 shares unchanged. 

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Jai Balaji Industries Q2 results:

Net profit at Rs 201.5 crore against Rs 21 crore and revenue was up 12.9% at Rs 1,546.6 crore versus Rs 1,369.4 crore, YoY.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | NELCO Q2 results:

Net profit up 26.7% at Rs 5.7 crore versus Rs 5 crore and revenue up 1.6% at Rs 76.6 crore versus Rs 75.4 crore, YoY.

Sensex Today: Pramod Ranjan, Managing Director & CEO, Oriental Hotels

“OHL reported a 5% increase in revenue in the second quarter aided by an increase in the Average Room Rates (ARR). He added, “Our asset management efforts which began with re-positioning of Vivanta Mangalore, ongoing renovation of the hotel in Coonoor and the commencement of a complete renovation of the iconic Taj Malabar Resort & Spa, Cochin in Q2, are all aimed at sustained value creation of the portfolio.”

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Paytm edges higher as Goldman Sachs raises target price; stock up 76% this year

Paytm parent One 97 Communications Ltd edged a percent higher on October 16 afternoon after Goldman Sachs raised the stock's target price, saying the Noida-based payments company could be the most profitable among India's internet companies.

The Vijay Shekhar Sharma-led fintech company remains well-positioned to capture a share of digital payments in India, given its industry-leading scale and engagement, Goldman Sachs analysts said.

The foreign brokerage expects Paytm to turn net income positive in FY25, which is likely to act as a catalyst for the stock. Read More

SpiceJet & Lessor Engine Lease Finance Corp Aviation agree to settle dispute, reported CNBC-TV18.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Nomura On HDFC Life Insurance Company:

-Maintain buy call, target at Rs 800 per share
-Best-in-class product & distribution profile underpin our positive bias
-Distribution strength & strong support from the parent should help it regain momentum in H2
-Company has guided for full-year FY24 APE growth of mid-teen digits
-Maintain estimates for APE/VNB growth of 6 percent/5 percent in FY24
-See APE/VNB CAGR of 15 percent/16 percent during FY24-26

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Intellect Design Arena partners with universal bank in Philippines for bank-wide digital transformation in APAC

Intellect Design Arena has signed a digital transformation programme with a universal bank in the Philippines. This is the largest bank-wide transformation program in APAC.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Indian Bank declares NPAs worth Rs 24.76 crore as fraud

Indian Bank has declared non-performing assets (NPAs) worth Rs 24.76 crore, including Rs 16.20 crore from Samsarapu Polaraju, Samsarapu Narasimha Raju & Maheswari Constructions & Engineering Works which have submitted fake documents and done diversion of funds. Further the bank reported NPAs worth Rs 8.56 crore from S V Exports due to diversion of funds.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Godrej Properties subsidiary receives GST demand & penalty notice worth Rs 96.62 crore for Mumbai project

Godrej Properties' subsidiary Godrej Redevelopers (Mumbai) Private Limited (GRMPL) has received an order from the Additional Commissioner, CGST & Central Excise, Navi Mumbai, for GST demand of Rs 48.31 crore along with interest and a penalty of Rs 48.31 crore under the Central Goods and Services Tax Act. They alleged non-payment of GST in relation to one of the projects developed by GRMPL in Mumbai.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Jefferies View On Avenue Supermarts

-Retain hold rating, target raised to Rs 3,850 from Rs 3,700 per share
-Q2 EBITDA below estimates on lower gross margin & higher staff costs
-General merchandise & apparel mix remained muted
-H1 SSG at 8.6 percent is respectable, with improving footfalls
-Store additions remained muted but should see a ramp-up

Stock Market LIVE Updates | HSBC View On HDFC Life Insurance Company

-Maintain buy call, target cut to Rs 790 from Rs 800 per share
-In H1FY24, high ticket-size business declined 45 percent YoY
-Rest of the business (in APE terms) apart from high-ticket size, grew 18 percent YoY
-IRR cuts making non-participating savings products uncompetitive
-IRR cuts can put near-term pressure on growth
-New launches, granular growth & parent support can offset IRR cut pressure

Stock Market LIVE Updates | RBI imposes monetary penalty of Rs 1 crore on Union Bank of India

The Reserve Bank of India has imposed a monetary penalty of Rs 1 crore on Union Bank of India for non-compliance with directions related to Loans and Advances – Statutory and Other Restrictions.

Sensex Today | Market at 2 PM

The Sensex was up 10.05 points or 0.02 percent at 66,292.79, and the Nifty was up 16.50 points or 0.08 percent at 19,767.50. About 1871 shares advanced, 1410 shares declined, and 130 shares unchanged. 

Stock Market LIVE Updates | RBI imposes monetary penalty of Rs 64 lakh on RBL Bank

The Reserve Bank of India has imposed a monetary penalty of Rs 64 lakh on RBL Bank for non-compliance with certain directions.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | RBI imposes monetary penalty of Rs 8.50 lakh on Bajaj Finance

The Reserve Bank of India has imposed a monetary penalty of Rs 8.50 lakh on Bajaj Finance, for non-compliance with the ‘monitoring of frauds in NBFCs directions.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Persistent Systems appoints Ayon Banerjee as Chief Strategy & Growth Officer

Persistent Systems has appointed Ayon Banerjee as the Chief Strategy & Growth Officer, with effect from October 13.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Super Spinning Mills board appoints Padmavathy Pas as Chief Financial Officer

Super Spinning Mills said the board members have appointed Padmavathy Pas Chief Financial Officer of the company, with effect from October 13. Padmavathy has been associated with the company for 23 years and has done various finance roles in the company.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Amarendra Kumar Gupta resigns as CFO of Transformers and Rectifiers

Amarendra Kumar Gupta has resigned as Chief Financial Officer of Transformers and Rectifiers with effect from October 14 due to personal reasons. The company is in the process of appointing a new Chief Financial Officer.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | CLSA On ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company:

-Maintain buy call, target at Rs 700 per share
-ICICI Bank’s APE run-rate should translate into 1-10 percent YoY growth from Oct 2023
-Non-ICICI Bank channel closed H1FY24 with 6 percent YoY growth
-See non-ICICI Bank channel growth at 8-15 percent YoY from Oct-Feb
-Low APE & VNB growth priced in at the current market price
-See limited downside risk for the stock

Sensex Today | Mohit Rahlan, Chief Executive Officer, TIW Capital:

Wholesale prices continued to decline for the sixth straight month. Price decline was seen in paper & paper products, chemicals, textiles and basic metals. However, manufactured goods witnessed a sequential rise in prices, indicating a recovery is underway in the sector. More importantly, Food prices continued to witness a sequential decline. Vegetable prices which had shot up in the last two months saw a significant correction. This bodes well for the inflation trajectory in the economy and will allow the RBI to stay put on interest rates. Because of this sharp fall in food prices, the WPI index also witnessed a decline on a MoM basis. This was the first sequential decrease in three months. India looks quite in control of inflation and this will likely give RBI the required headroom to react to global macroeconomic events and policy actions of the Fed.

Bank of Maharashtra Q2 results | Net profit up 72% at Rs 919.8 crore against Rs 535 crore, YoY.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Ambit On Info Edge

-Buy call, target at Rs 5,500 per share
-Recruitment pain is likely to aggravate in H2, but will be short lived
-Non-IT strength & rebound in IT hiring to result in 20 percent billing growth in FY25
-Expect 15 percent FY23-28 recruitment revenue CAGR versus 17 percent in FY13-23
-68 percent of target is from recruitment, which we value at 39x FY25 EV/EBITDA

Sensex Today | Suman Chowdhury, Chief Economist and Head – Research, Acuite Ratings & Research:

India’s wholesale inflation print still continues to be negative at -0.26% in Sep-23 albeit it has tightened from -4.18% in Jun-23 respectively. A rapid drop in the increased vegetable prices and overall benign wholesale food inflation that declined by 4.5% MoM, has helped to keep the WPI sequential trajectory at -0.6% MoM.

One important trend in the WPI data is the reversal of the deflationary trend in manufactured products from Aug-23 with Sep-23 print at +0.4% MoM and such a trend is likely to continue, as reported by the last PMI Manufacturing Survey. Fuel and power inflation has also started to gain sequential momentum and stood at 2.3% MoM, given the sharp rise in the prices of crude oil since the middle of August. Core WPI continues to be in contraction but will be vulnerable to a migration to the positive zone in the near term.

We expect WPI inflation to be in positive territory over the next few months, given healthy industrial and consumer demand and the backdrop of increasing prices of crude oil, cereals and pulses. This is set to be hold CPI inflation in the range of 5.0-5.5% over the next two quarters and not allow it to come down sharply. RBI MPC will have limited option but to wait and watch the price scenario till the end of the current fiscal.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Karur Vysya Bank Q2 Results:

Net Profit up 48.2 percent at Rs 511.5 crore against Rs 345.1 crore and NII up 11.4 percent at Rs 915.4 crore versus Rs 821.4 crore, YoY.

Gross NPA 1.73 percent versus 1.99 percent and net NPA at 0.47 percent versus 0.59 percent, QoQ.

Provisions at Rs 126.4 crore against Rs 159.4 crore, QoQ and Rs 227.2 crore, YoY.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | SpiceJet shares plummet 11% after reports of Rakesh Gangwal denying stake acquisition

Shares of low-cost carrier Spicejet tanked over 11 percent on October 16 after Rakesh Gangwal of IndiGo dismissed the reports claiming that he is looking to acquire a stake in debt-laden SpiceJet.

On October 13, reports of Gangwal considering buying a stake in SpiceJet sent the domestic carrier's shares soaring. The stock had zoomed nearly 20 percent during the day on claims that the former IndiGo promoter is looking to commit to a stake acquisition in the debt-ridden company. Read More