December auto sales preview: Two-wheeler sales expected to surge 30%; Bajaj Auto, TVS likely top performers

Most automobile majors are likely to declare their sales numbers of December on January 1.

Two-wheeler vehicle sales are likely to have jumped by 30 percent in December 2023, with Bajaj Auto and TVS emerging as top performers. Meanwhile Royal Enfield is likely to report a modest growth, as per a CNBC-TV18 poll.

Most automobile majors are expected to declare their sales numbers for December on January 1. A low-base effect combined with a healthy demand is being seen among the reasons behind the growth projection.

Auto Majors sales preview

As per the poll, Bajaj Auto's total sales are seen rising 25 percent to 3.51 lakh units and TVS Motor's auto sales may increase by 30 percent to 3.14 lakh units.

Also Read | Bajaj Auto shares at all-time high, CEO aims for CNG two-wheelers by 2025

Hero Moto Corp's growth is seen at 10 percent to 4.33 lakh units and Eicher Motors is expected to report a modest growth of of 0.4 percent to 68,667 units.

In the passenger vehicle (PV) segment, Mahindra and Mahindra is expected to lead, as its auto segment is seen to report a growth of 19 percent to almost 68,000 units. In contrast, Maruti Suzuki India is likely to report an increase of 6 percent to 1.47 lakh units.

As per the poll, Ashok Leyland is projected to face a 4 percent decline in total sales, falling to 17,400 units from 18,138 units YoY; and Tata Motors is expected to see a marginal 1 percent increase, reaching 75,233 units compared to 74,356 units YoY.

Also Read | November auto sales see spurt in sales, Tata Motors post marginal decline

Analyst View

As per Nomura, small car segment demand has remained subdued this month with high discounts. The brokerage also projects downside risks for FY25, and has lowered PV industry growth forecast to 6 percent from 8 percent.

According to the CNBC-TV18 report, analysts anticipate overall volume growth driven by two and three-wheelers, but volumes are expected to cool down sequentially across segments.

Commercial vehicles (CVs) may remain weak due to lower demand in the light CV category, and a higher base.

Notably, auto sales data for November 2023 showed a rise in sales for major automakers except Tata Motors, which posted a marginal decline.