India’s merchandise trade deficit surged to USD 32.15 billion in September 2025, up from a revised USD 24.42 billion a year earlier, according to flash estimates. The widening gap—the largest since the record deficit in November 2024—was driven by a 16.7% jump in imports to USD 68.53 billion, primarily fueled by gold imports, which nearly doubled month-on-month despite record-high prices. Exports rose more modestly by 6.1% to USD 36.38 billion, likely weighed down by delays in the US-India trade deal as the US accounts for roughly 20% of India’s goods exports. Looking ahead, the trade deficit is expected to remain elevated due to strong gold imports, firm energy demand, and continued reliance on electronics and capital goods imports.