Closing Bell: Sensex plunges 960 pts, Nifty ends near 23,950; IT, banks hit worst, pharma sole outlier

Today, the benchmark indices corrected sharply, with the Nifty ends 247 points lower and the Sensex down by 964 points. Among sectors, the Pharma and Healthcare indices rallied over 1 percent, while the IT, Defence, and financial indices shed over 1 percent.

Technically, after a gap down, the market hovered within the range of 23,900/79,200 to 24,000/79,500 throughout the day. We believe that the short-term market sentiment remains on the weak side; however, due to temporary oversold conditions, we could see a quick pullback rally from the current levels.

For traders, the key support zones are at 23,870/79,000 and the 200-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) or 23,825/78,800. If the index remains above these levels, we could see a quick pullback rally towards 24,150-24,200/79,500-79,800. Conversely, if it falls below the 200-day SMA or 23,825/78,800, below which it could slip till 23,750-23,725/78,500-78,350.

The market extended its decline for another session, losing nearly 1%, primarily driven by weak global cues. The Nifty opened with a downside gap, testing the support zone near the previous swing low of 23,850 in early trades. It then moved in a narrow range throughout the session before closing at 23,941 on the weekly expiry day. The selling pressure was broad-based, with recent outperformers like IT, banking, and financials among the top losers. However, the broader indices showed relative resilience, ending with a smaller decline of 0.3%-0.5%.

Profit-taking is evident in previously strong sectors like banking and IT, as other sectors remain significantly beaten down. The next key support lies at the 200-day exponential moving average (DEMA) around the 23,700 level. A break below this could lead to further downside for the index.  Despite the weakness, oversold conditions and resilience in select pockets present buying opportunities. Traders are advised to align their positions carefully, with an emphasis on prudent stock selection.

While the current federal funds rate appears moderate in a historical context spanning over 50 years, it is still relatively high when considering the trends of the past decade.

The Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by 0.25% to 4.5%, revising its 2025 forecast upward from 3.5% to 4.0%. This reflects expectations of persistent inflationary pressures, as inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. The "higher-for-longer" stance signals the Fed’s determination to combat inflation while managing risks to the economy.

Impacts on the USD and U.S. Stock Market

A higher interest rate forecast strengthens the USD, attracting global capital to U.S. assets. While this benefits dollar-denominated investments, it pressures export-oriented U.S. companies by increasing the cost of their goods abroad.

U.S. stock markets may see declines, particularly in tech and growth sectors, as higher rates reduce the present value of future earnings. Interest-sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities could also face further challenges, while overall market sentiment may remain cautious.

How would it affect the Indian Stock Market

Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPIs) could experience possible outflows, putting downward pressure on market indices. The Indian Rupee (INR) may weaken against the US Dollar (USD), benefiting export-oriented sectors but posing challenges for import-heavy industries. Interest-rate-sensitive sectors like real estate, autos, and capital goods may underperform, while IT and export-oriented sectors stand to gain from a stronger USD. Inflationary pressures could negatively affect consumer sectors, potentially dampening their performance. Overall, market sentiment may be marked by increased volatility, with investors adopting a more cautious approach.

Impacts on the NIFTY

For India, a stronger USD could result in foreign portfolio outflows, weakening the NIFTY 50. A depreciating INR raises import costs, impacting sectors like energy and aviation, while benefiting export-driven IT firms. Interest-sensitive sectors such as real estate and autos may underperform due to higher borrowing costs

Markets were plundered tracking negative global cues as benchmark indices slipped below their psychological levels on broad-based selling after the US Fed's hawkish stance raised concerns over further rate cuts next year. Rising US bond yields has pushed global currencies, including the rupee to new lows while renewed foreign fund outflows from domestic equities could prompt investors to turn risk averse.

The Indian market saw a widespread decline following a global sell-off driven by the US Fed’s hawkish stance on interest rates. Sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as banking and real estate, significantly bore the brunt. However, the BoJ's decision to keep its interest rate steady, which surprised economists, aided in reducing the selling pressure. Despite this, investor caution persisted amid ongoing FII selling, with a strategic shift towards defensive sectors like pharma as evidenced by their outperformance.

In its latest FTSE readjustment to take effect from December 23, Bharti Hexacom and Go Digital General will be the latest additions to the index. The adjustment date will be December 20.

According to Nuvama, the addition of Bharti Hexacom is expected to bring in flows of $36 million ( 5 million shares) . Similarly, the inclusion of Go Digit General will bring in flows of around $19 million ( 2 million shares). Read More

Coal mine block has a total geological coal reserve of 107.4 mt with a peak-rated capacity of 1.2 mt/annum.

Stating that he is in the camp of the Reserve Bank of India, Hitendra Dave, CEO, HSBC India says that as food inflation affects everyone, it won’t be appropriate to carve it out while determining inflation. In an exclusive conversation with Moneycontrol, when asked about the likely impact of loosening of interest rate cycle, Dave said what’s more important to watch is the terminal rate of interest, commentary from the FOMC and allied data points, rather than the actual quantum of rate cut itself. Also, Dave believes that while Indian businesses have easy access to foreign capital and have capital account convertibility in practice. Read More

Three Nifty 50 constituents Nestle India Ltd, Asian Paints Ltd, and IndusInd Bank Ltd hit their respective 52-week lows in trade on December 19 amid a sour market sentiment.

From their respective 52-week highs, the stocks have cumulatively erased Rs 2.2 lakh crore in investors' wealth, falling up to 44 percent. Read More

FOMC cut rates by 25 bps in line with market expectation, which according to Powell was a close call. For CY 2025, the number of rate cuts were reduced from 100 bps to 50 bps, which came as a negative surprise. As per Bloomberg poll only 1/12 economist was expecting reduction by 50 bps. The reduction in rate cuts for next year seems to be driven by increase in Core Inflation (PCE) forecast from 2.2% to 2.5% & the assessment that downside risk to growth have reduced.

The fed dot plots have changed frequently in March, June, Sept & Dec 2024 policy, however the neutral fed fund rate has steadily increased from 2.6% to 3% in CY 2024, implying rate remaining higher for longer due to sticky inflation. We saw US treasury yield rise and dollar index to strengthen post the policy announcement. Today’s Fed policy may also limit policy easing by other central banks.

Markets today opened on a negative note after Jerome Porwell led FOMC meeting decided to cut the rates by 25bps. The inflation numbers do not seem as promising as markets had expected. The meeting only sees two rate cuts going ahead in 2025, maintaining the hawkish stance of the Fed. This makes the situation a little trickier for the upcoming RBI meeting in February. The spread between US and Indian interest rates is at a 2 decade low, which might trigger a capital outflows from Indian equity markets.

Retail investors are advised to remain cautious and avoid behavioral biases. We always tell investors to avoid timing the markets. We need to wait to analyse how global cues like power shift in the West pan out. Interest rate cuts do play an important role but if we one sticks to discipline and his/her long term goals, investment in equities have a lot of potential. From sector perspective, export oriented sectors like Pharma and IT would do well on the back on strengthening dollar against rupee.

Waaree Renewable Technologies Ltd in a board meeting held on December 19 has approved the listing of its equity shares on National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE).

The shares of the company are already listed on the BSE.

The Sensex was down 902.98 points or 1.13 percent at 79,279.22, and the Nifty was down 231.40 points or 0.96 percent at 23,967.45. About 1,308 shares advanced, 2,128 shares declined, and 82 shares were unchanged.

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Stove Kraft shares trimmed gains after rising almost 6 percent in early trade as the company announced selling cookware via IKEA's global stores.

The company on December 19 via a press release said that it will develop a range of cookware which will be sold through IKEA's global network of stories from 2026. The manufacturing facility for this partnership is being housed in a built up area of 180,000 square feet at its Harohalli campus, said the release.

Shares of pharma stocks emerged as outliers in a weak market, with prominent names like Dr Reddy's Labs, Cipla, and Lupin rising 1-4 percent on December 19. Other stocks, including Laurus Labs, JB Pharma, Ipca Labs, Aurobindo Pharma, Abbott India, Natco Pharma, and Glenmark, also surged 1-5 percent.

Broad-based gains across most pharma names also lifted the Nifty Pharma index over 1 percent higher, making it the sole sectoral gainer in today's trade. Read More

Reports of Starbucks looking to exit India completely false and baseless. Tata’s relationship with Starbucks stands strong with shared values and commitment to India, says Tata Consumer.

The capex estimated around Rs 30,000 crore over FY25-30

The Nifty is slated to open very weak, given the trends across Asia and the slump in US stocks thanks to the Fed cutting rates by a quarter percent but turning more hawkish. 24,000 is important support but should we gap down below it, the next critical level lies at the November 28 trough of 23873. Anything under this and the bullish head-and-shoulders pattern with a target of 25500 will have failed and the 23,300 lows will become vulnerable again. Immediate resistance lies at 24500. Options data also shows that the range of movement has shifted lower as call sellers have begun shorting strikes closer to the current price, in a more aggressive bearish stance.

The South Korean won fell to its weakest level in 15 years on Thursday, trading at 1,449.9 per dollar as of 0234 GMT, down 0.96% from the previous day. This marks its lowest point since March 16, 2009.

The currency's decline is attributed to risk-averse sentiment stemming from the U.S. Federal Reserve's cautious approach to future rate cuts and domestic political instability. While the Fed reduced interest rates on Wednesday, Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that further cuts depend on progress in controlling inflation, boosting the dollar and pressuring the won.

Adding to the won's woes is South Korea's internal political turmoil following impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol's failed martial law attempt earlier this month. The Bank of Korea has since warned of downside risks to its growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024 due to the economic fallout.

The won has weakened 3.9% against the dollar in December, extending a three-month losing streak. Down 11% year-to-date, it is the worst-performing emerging Asian currency of 2023 and is set to record its steepest annual decline since 2008.

Gold recovered in Asian trading, rising as much as 1.3% to hover near $2,620 an ounce after plunging over 2% in the previous session. The rebound follows the Federal Reserve's measured tone on future rate cuts.

While the Fed reduced borrowing costs on Wednesday, Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that further cuts hinge on tangible progress in curbing inflation. Quarterly forecasts revealed a more conservative outlook, with some officials signaling fewer rate cuts for 2024, prompting traders to recalibrate expectations for 2025.

Bangladesh’s interim government has accused energy supplier Adani Power of breaching a 2017 agreement by withholding tax benefits granted to a coal-fired power plant in India, according to documents reviewed by Reuters.

Dhaka is reportedly aiming to renegotiate the deal, as revealed in correspondence between the two parties and interviews with six Bangladeshi officials. Under the agreement, Adani Power supplies electricity to Bangladesh from its coal-fired plant in eastern India.

Adani Power has not been accused of any wrongdoing, and a company spokesperson stated that the firm has fulfilled all contractual obligations and has received no indication that Bangladesh is reconsidering the contract.

India has extended the suspension of futures trading in key agricultural commodities until January 31, 2025. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) issued the notification on Wednesday, continuing restrictions on contracts for soybean and its derivatives, crude palm oil, wheat, paddy rice, chickpeas, green gram, and rapeseed.

This move aims to combat food inflation in a country that is the world's largest importer of vegetable oils and a major producer of wheat and rice. Futures trading in these commodities was initially halted in 2021, marking a pivotal shift since its introduction in 2003. The suspension was previously extended to December 2024 before the latest revision.