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Ananya Roy

Founder

Credibull Capital

Will the chips fall into place for Vedanta?

BUSINESS

Will the chips fall into place for Vedanta?

The semiconductor project will be undertaken by Volcan Investments – the holding company of Vedanta, rather than by Vedanta itself. However, the benefits of vertical integration will eventually trickle down to Vedanta

With inflation disappointing, what’s the outlook for the economy and markets?

BUSINESS

With inflation disappointing, what’s the outlook for the economy and markets?

The persistence of high inflation and rate hikes by central banks will exacerbate already weak growth 

Does a promising PMI promise a stock market rally? 

BUSINESS

Does a promising PMI promise a stock market rally? 

The crucial difference is that while the Purchasing Managers Index is based on expectations of manufacturers and service providers, stock market movement is based on expectations of investors 

Indian stock markets are decoupled, but for how long?

BUSINESS

Indian stock markets are decoupled, but for how long?

DIIs have been booking profits, and sitting on cash even as SIP flows have sustained through the volatility. However, in the event of another round of FII selloffs, the DII’s cash-pool can provide some support to the markets

Meandering markets | Deep correction or a mere speedbump?

BUSINESS

Meandering markets | Deep correction or a mere speedbump?

A sectoral analysis helps make more sense of a market that’s unable to make up its mind on where to go. The near term looks volatile even as the longer term picture remains bright

China, commodities, and the Indian stock market

BUSINESS

China, commodities, and the Indian stock market

If the rate-cuts and fund-injection are able to pull the Chinese economy back on track, commodity prices can be expected to remain elevated. A lot will hinge on how the rest of the world performs 

Easing US inflation: What does it mean for Indian stock markets?

BUSINESS

Easing US inflation: What does it mean for Indian stock markets?

The drop in US yields translates into higher yield spreads with India, and a potential sustaining of the recent trend of FII inflows

Why is the market rallying while the world is grappling with fears of recession?

BUSINESS

Why is the market rallying while the world is grappling with fears of recession?

It is expected that central banks in the US and Europe would rein in their hawkish stance in favour of supporting growth. This spells good news for yield spreads with India. Furthermore, anticipation of weakening demand has brought down the prices of crude and commodities. This is yet another positive development for the Indian economy

Banking sector: What you see may not be what you get

BUSINESS

Banking sector: What you see may not be what you get

Non-performing asset (NPA) ratios are reducing. But the true picture of NPAs is apparent only when we look at the trend of fresh bad loans — they have been rising every year since the onset of the pandemic 

Ignore the short-term headwinds in Indian aviation

BUSINESS

Ignore the short-term headwinds in Indian aviation

The recent turbulence in the Indian aviation sector has brought quality stocks in the sector to attractive valuations

As the rupee continues tumbling, what does it mean for stock markets?

BUSINESS

As the rupee continues tumbling, what does it mean for stock markets?

As global economies cut back on discretionary spending in the face of recession, export-focused discretionary sectors are likely to be hit the hardest as demand comes down abroad 

Does commodity crash signal FII comeback?

BUSINESS

Does commodity crash signal FII comeback?

A concerted effort to stamp out inflation by central banks has raised the risk of a recession. If this risk plays out, FIIs may return to their favourite hunting grounds in India 

Higher GST rates pose headwinds for consumption stocks

BUSINESS

Higher GST rates pose headwinds for consumption stocks

Proposed increase in GST rates will add to revenue but higher consumer prices could strain already constrained budgets of low and middle income households

RBI’s take on capital flows, and what it means for stock markets

BUSINESS

RBI’s take on capital flows, and what it means for stock markets

Volatility (US CBOE VIX) and term premia have been found to be correlated with portfolio flows into India. This makes the case for investors to track US growth, the US yield curve, and the US CBOE VIX 

The Fed rate hike and its far-reaching consequences

BUSINESS

The Fed rate hike and its far-reaching consequences

Inflation has become a global concern while global consumption demand is not as widespread and resilient as it has proved to be in the US. So, the situation is grimmer for countries outside the US

The market see-sawed after MPC announcement. Why?

BUSINESS

The market see-sawed after MPC announcement. Why?

Will the RBI successfully maintain the precarious balance between controlling inflation and supporting growth? 

As the MPC meet looms, what will be the impact on stock markets?

BUSINESS

As the MPC meet looms, what will be the impact on stock markets?

As geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine and Covid cases in China show no sign of retreating, the outlook on input costs remains pessimistic. The situation is expected to be aggravated as rising interest costs push up financing costs on the supply side, while disincentivising consumption on the demand side

With retail investors at the vanguard, how long will the defence hold?

BUSINESS

With retail investors at the vanguard, how long will the defence hold?

It’s important to understand the factors driving the FII selloff in order to try and form expectations around when we may expect it to reverse

Time to take stock after this week’s market volatility

BUSINESS

Time to take stock after this week’s market volatility

In such a tumultuous market environment, it becomes necessary to find one’s bearings by taking stock of the drivers behind the volatility

How have markets performed during times of unforgiving inflation?

BUSINESS

How have markets performed during times of unforgiving inflation?

In two of the last four instances of correction in the Nifty, inflation was on a downtrend. On the other hand, inflation was also on a downtrend in two of the last three instances of upswings in the Nifty

How SUVs are riding the K-shaped path to recovery

BUSINESS

How SUVs are riding the K-shaped path to recovery

Until employment and growth catch up with the rising costs of vehicle ownership, demand from rural and lower-income households would continue to remain muted, affecting demand for two wheelers, 3-wheelers and low end passenger vehicles.

This is a make or break moment for Indian equities

BUSINESS

This is a make or break moment for Indian equities

The next couple of months will play a significant role in determining whether we are on the cusp of the next leg of a rally, or in the middle of a long-term correction

Is Indian Auto stuck in the slow lane?

BUSINESS

Is Indian Auto stuck in the slow lane?

Higher interest rates would effectively increase the capex costs for automakers, as well as financing costs for vehicle buyers. The only sustainable way out of this double whammy would be a pick-up in employment and growth and consequently, demand

As inflation strikes back, what should investors do?

BUSINESS

As inflation strikes back, what should investors do?

This is not good inflation—the demand pull kind, but is instead supply-push inflation. The upshot—higher inflation coupled with lower growth

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