War with Iran imminent? Why Israel may not hold back this time

Missiles launched from Iran towards Israel streak across the night sky as seen from Deir al-Balah, Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024. (AP Photo)

Will Israel risk an all-out war with Iran and push the Middle East into chaos? The question weighs like a ticking time bomb over the world in the aftermath of Iran's major missile attack on Israel.

For years, Israel and Iran waged proxy wars on each other, either through covert operations or with the support of allies. But Tuesday's attack by Iran has brought both countries to the brink of full-scale war. 

United States and allies are urging restraint on Israel's part, with President Joe Biden saying that the response should be "propotional".

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But how do you respond to a country that fires nearly 200 missiles at you and vows more such "crushing attacks" in case of a retaliation? From Israel's perspective, the consensus appears to have changed.

Washington fears that Israel may try to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities in a move that could have far-reaching global implications.

A New York Times report cited American officials as saying that Israel could strike the nuclear facilities of Iran, particularly the enrichment sites at Natanz.

Natanz is at the heart of the Iranian nuclear program where the country produced its near bomb-grade uranium.

Yoel Guzansky, a former senior security official who oversaw Iran strategy on Israel’s National Security Council, told The New York Times that the story has changed since the Iranian attack.

“We have a consensus in Israel — among the military, the defence experts, analysts and politicians — that Israel should respond in force to Iran’s attack,” it said.

The NYT report said that by striking Tel Aviv, Iran crossed a threshold that it never previously breached, even during April when it launched an all-out drone and missile onslaught.

Now, Israelis see the attack as an opportunity to "inflict pain" on Iran, Guzansky said.

Earlier, Israel's former prime minister Naftali Bennett made a similar assertion, saying that Israel now has the biggest opportunity in the past 50 years to change the face of the Middle East.

“We must act now to destroy its [Iran's] nuclear project, destroy their major energy facilities and critically hit this terrorist regime. The tentacles of that octopus are severely wounded — now’s the time to aim for the head," he said.

Israel has now its greatest opportunity in 50 years, to change the face of the Middle East.The leadership of Iran, which used to be good at chess, made a terrible mistake this evening.We must act *now* to destroy Irans nuclear program, its central energy facilities, and to
Naftali Bennett (@naftalibennett) October 1, 2024

But will Israel go for the jugular? It is quite unlikely for now.

At least four Israeli officials told NYT that the country is not currently planning to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities.

This is depite that fact that Israel views Iran’s nuclear weapons programme as an existential threat.

Moreover, targeting Iran's nuclear sites will not be easy without support from US. President Joe Biden has already said that he will not support an attack by Israel on Iranian nuclear sites.

But one thing is for sure. Israel's retaliation is likely to be more forceful than its response in April.

According to the NYT report, Israel feels that it was "wrong to listen to the White House" in April about conducting a measured retaliatory strike.

With US Presidential elections around the corner, Biden's ability to persuade Israel will also be far weaker than it was just a few months ago.

Guzansky said that Israel's response “should be seen everywhere and felt by Iran."

"It should hurt Iran. In order to do that, you cannot hit a radar station again," he said.

Sima Shine, a former senior intelligence officer, told NYT that Israelis now want PM Benjamin Netanyahu to do things that the country didn’t do in the past.

Israelis feel that they cannot be under ongoing attacks from all sides, Shine added.

But some experts have also sounded caution, saying that Iran is unlike other countries.

“The approach that Israel has had over 75 years has always been about hitting your enemy harder than you’re being hit,” Andreas Krieg, an expert on warfare at King’s College, London, told NYT.

Krieg added that this approach does not work with a regime like Iran, which will not be deterred.