Bihar Exit Polls 2025: NDA poised for clean sweep, Tejashwi hits roadblock; markets likely to stay flat

Independent MP from Purnea, Pappu Yadav, said, "When was the exit poll correct? You are saying that the vote has increased, but where has it increased? I believe that the people of Bihar have cast their votes for the Mahagathbandhan. From my experience in Bihar, I feel that either there will be a hung assembly, or the Mahagathbandhan will form the government."

Congress MLA and Bhagalpur candidate Ajeet Sharma said, “The voting has ended today. Who is to say who will win till the counting is done? I am contesting elections in Bhagalpur. Should I already say that I am winning? The public makes the decision. The Mahagathbandhan will form the government. The exit poll is entirely wrong.”

For months, Prashant Kishor promised to upend Bihar’s old order with his Jan Suraaj movement. Now if exit polls are any indication, his Jan Suraaj Party could face a wipeout in its debut election. News18 Mega Exit Poll, along with other poll agencies, suggests that the JSP might not even open its account in the Bihar Assembly polls. For a man who has helped craft some of India’s most successful political campaigns, from Narendra Modi’s 2014 wave to Mamata Banerjee’s 2021 victory, such a result would mark a humbling setback in his personal political journey. (Read More)

After months of extensive campaigning and an effort to pit the election as one for the routine everyday issues , the predictions from major exit polls is extremely grim for the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). Major pollsters have predicted an average tally between 75-100 seats from the Mahagathbandhan, of which RJD is an important component. If such predictions hold true on November 14, it will be a big dent not only to the Mahagathbandhan, but more so to the RJD, who fought the election primarily with Tejashwi Yadav as its face. (Read More)

Exit poll predictions for the Bihar Assembly elections that concluded on Tuesday showed a clear victory for the Nitish Kumar-led NDA. A majority of the exit poll results predicted below par performance for the Mahagathbandhan of the RJD, Congress, VIP and Left parties, adding a fresh chapter in the Opposition's prolonged quest for a breakthrough in the state.  As per the 'News18 Mega Exit Poll' for Bihar, the NDA is projected to win 140-150 seats while the Mahagathbandhan could be restricted to 85-95 seats. Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj is seen unlikely to have made any impact with the survey predicting 0-5 seats while Others are expected to bag 5-10 seats. (Read More)

Exit polls after the final phase of the Bihar Assembly elections on Tuesday predicted a clear victory for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar-led National Democratic Alliance. In the 2025 election, the NDA faced the opposition Rashtriya Janata Dal, allied with Congress. A new group, Jan Suraaj, floated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s former poll manager Prashant Kishor, was also in the fray. (Read More)

The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is set for a decisive victory in Bihar, with the News18 Mega Exit Poll predicting that the alliance will bag 140-150 seats in the 243-member assembly — a clear improvement over its 2020 tally of 125 seats. The opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB) is expected to finish a distant second with 85 to 95 seats, while the Prashant Kishor-led Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) is likely to draw a blank, according to the projection. (Read More)

Despite the political buzz, market reaction to the Bihar election results is expected to be muted, as most of the news is already priced in, an Economic Times report says. The Gift Nifty, an early indicator of the Indian market, was trading flat. Analysts told Economic Times that the Bihar outcomes are unlikely to cause major market swings, as most investors have already factored in an NDA win. Markets are currently more influenced by global and national economic trends than by state-level outcomes. Since polls suggest the NDA will stay in power, the result would largely signal continuity and stability, keeping market sentiment steady. Only a surprise result, such as a narrow NDA lead or an unexpected loss, could trigger short-term volatility.

NDA - 140-150

MGB -- 85-95

JSP -- 0-5

Others -- 5-10

Total - 243

NDA -- 142-162

MGB -- 80-98

Others -- 1-7

NDA- 148

MGB - 88

Others - 7

NDA -- 145-160

MGB -- 73-91

JSP -- 0-0

Others -- 5-10

NDA - 130-138

MGB- 100-108

JSP - 0

Others - 3-5

NDA -- 135- 150

MGB - 88-103

Others 3-7

NDA 133-148

MGB: 87-102

JSP:0-2

Oth:3-6

NDA: 147-167 seats

Mahagathbandhan: 70-90 seats

Others: 2-6 seats

Peoples Pulse Bihar Exit Polls 2025 show a clear advantage for the NDA, with the alliance projected to win 133-159 seats and secure a strong 46.2% vote share, putting it on track to cross the 122-seat majority mark.

JDU: Seen as a major gainer in Phase 1, likely to win 35-45 seats out of the 57 it contested. The party appears to be benefiting from NDA vote consolidation, with several seats it lost in 2020 due to LJP opposition now expected to return to JDU in 2025.

BJP: Projected to win 20-30 seats from the 48 it contested in Phase 1.

RJD: Predicted to secure 25-35 seats. It contested 71 seats independently, with one seat in a friendly contest with Congress.

Congress: Expected to win 5-10 seats. The party contested 24 seats in Phase 1, including some friendly fights. In 2020, Congress contested 70 seats and won 19; this time, it is contesting only 61 seats, mostly in Phase 2.

Left parties (combined): Anticipated to win 10-15 seats.

On Bihar elections, RJD MP Misa Bharti says, "This time there will be a change because women are concerned, they are worried about their children's future. For the last 20 years, there have been no employment opportunities here, and no factories have been set up. Therefore, women are voting in large numbers. Whenever the voter turnout is high, there is a change..."

"The wait is almost over! Axis My India exit poll for Bihar elections will be released tomorrow on 12th November 2025 from 5:30 pm onwards," tweets AxisMyIndia MD Pradeep Gupta

Kishanganj recorded the highest voter turnout in the second phase of the Bihar Assembly elections at 76.26%, followed by Katihar at 75.23%, Purnia at 73.79%, Supaul at 70.69%, and Purvi Champaran at 69.02%. According to the Election Commission of India's Voter Turnout app, Nawada saw 57.11% polling till 5 pm.

Other districts also reported strong participation, including Araria (67.79%), Aurangabad (64.48%), Bhagalpur (66.03%), Gaya (67.50%), and Jamui (67.81%). Rohtas, Madhubani, and Sitamarhi recorded relatively lower turnout, ranging between 60% and 65%.

Among key constituencies, Supaul registered 69.72%, Sasaram 60.97%, Dhamdaha 74.20%, and Harsiddhi 70.98%. This phase is crucial as it will decide the fate of 12 ministers from Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's cabinet, including JD(U) leaders Vijendra Yadav (Supaul), Lesi Singh (Dhamdaha), Jayant Kushwaha (Amarpur), Sumit Singh (Chakai), and Mohammad Jama Khan (Chainpur).

The wait ends. As the polling concludes for the second phase, the Bihar exit poll results will be released shortly. Stay with us for most accurate tally and insights.

Expressing satisfaction over the high voter turnout, a political leader posted on X, saying, "My heart is brimming with joy; my Bihar has truly worked wonders. Reports of bumper turnout are pouring in from every corner. The elderly, women, youth, traders, farmers-every caste, every class-is eagerly ensuring their participation in this grand festival of democracy."

The BJP has lodged a complaint with the Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) against the RJD, accusing it of violating the Model Code of Conduct during the second phase of the Bihar polls. The BJP alleged that an RJD social media post sought to influence voters on polling day, calling it an attempt to "manipulate voter perception."

The complaint cited an RJD Facebook post that claimed friction among BJP, JD(U), and LJP workers - a claim the BJP said was false and misleading. The post allegedly stated that BJP and LJP workers were preventing votes for JD(U), while JD(U) workers were blocking votes for the BJP.

The final phase of Bihar's assembly elections on November 11 will decide the fate of 1,302 candidates contesting across 122 constituencies.

The voter turnout for second phase polls is here. As per the latest data by the Election Commission, the voter turnout for November 11 polling stands at 67.14 percent.

In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, most exit polls forecast a slim victory for the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan. On average, 11 surveys gave the alliance around 125 seats - just over the majority mark of 122 in the 243-member Assembly - while projecting 108 seats for the JD(U)-led NDA. However, the actual outcome flipped the script. The NDA secured 125 seats, just enough to retain power, while the Mahagathbandhan ended up with 110. The undivided Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) had contested independently that year, and the Mukesh Sahani-led Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), now aligned with the Opposition, was then part of the NDA.

Beyond bread-and-butter issues, caste equations outweigh religious factors in Bihar's politics - but with a unique Nitish Kumar imprint, notes an Indian Express analysis. Here, caste is mobilised not around pride or identity, but as the central channel through which welfare policies reach targeted communities. This approach contrasts sharply with the Sangh Parivar's long-standing strategy of mobilising marginalised castes and tribes by framing their icons as Hindu heroes.

Under Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's leadership for the past 20 years - mostly in alliance with the BJP - Bihar has witnessed a distinctive version of the NDA experiment. Despite the BJP's significant influence in the state, the coalition's focus remains largely on "bijli, sadak, paani" (electricity, roads, water), leaving little room for Hindutva politics, apart from occasional remarks by leaders like Union Minister Giriraj Singh. Unlike other BJP-ruled states where Hindutva often complements the "development" narrative, Bihar's NDA model continues to prioritize governance and infrastructure as its core political message.

Among major pollsters, News18 will also release exit poll results of Bihar after 6:30 pm. Heres' a look at the methodology: The News18 Mega Exit Poll surveyed 122 Vidhan Sabha constituencies in Bihar, covering 50% of the state's total 243 seats. In each constituency, 225 interviews were conducted with voters who had cast their votes, resulting in a total planned sample size of 27,450 respondents across Bihar. Given that the election took place in two phases, a mixed methodology was adopted. Instead of the traditional approach of interviewing voters immediately after they cast their votes, fieldwork for Phase 1 was conducted the day after polling, as this method is believed to produce more reliable responses. For Phase 2, however, the traditional exit poll method was followed, interviewing voters as they exited polling booths.

Following the Red Fort blast in New Delhi and the ongoing Bihar assembly elections, the state has sealed its nearly 700-kilometre-long international border with Nepal for 72 hours to maintain law and order, Bihar Director General of Police (DGP) Vinay Kumar said on Tuesday. "The police are on high alert after the incident in Delhi to ensure that no such event occurs in Bihar. The international border with Nepal has been sealed for the past 72 hours in view of the elections," DGP Kumar told ANI. Bihar shares its border with Nepal across seven districts - West Champaran, East Champaran, Madhubani, Supaul, Araria, Kishanganj, and Sitamarhi. All these districts are voting in the second phase of the assembly elections.

The Czech Republic does not allow the conducting of exit polls at polling stations under its election laws.

South Africa bans any reporting of election results or trends while the election process is ongoing to ensure fairness and transparency.

Singapore's Parliamentary Election Act strictly forbids the publication of exit polls from the time elections are announced until voting concludes.

In the UK, exit polls have gradually lost significance as vote counting begins immediately after polling ends, and results are usually announced by the next morning.

Exit polls are uncommon in Canada since a large number of mail-in ballots cannot be captured at polling stations, making accurate predictions difficult.

In Germany, exit polls are limited because the vote counting process is fast and transparent, with official results typically available within hours.

Italy prohibits exit polls from being conducted or published from 15 days before voting until counting concludes, aiming to avoid misleading the public.

France enforces a complete ban on exit polls during elections that stretch over multiple weeks to prevent influencing voters. Only estimated vote shares are released after the counting process is completed.

France, Italy, Germany, Canada, United Kingdom, Singapore, South Africa, Czech Republic

The second phase of the Bihar Assembly Election 2025 is underway, with voting taking place for 122 seats across 20 districts. This phase is being seen as crucial for determining the overall outcome. On Tuesday, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar visited the JD(U) headquarters. Before arriving there, his convoy stopped at the residences of Union Minister Lalan Singh and Bihar Minister Vijay Kumar Choudhary, where he held discussions with both leaders. Later, the Chief Minister, accompanied by the two ministers, reached the war room at the JD(U) office, where State President Umesh Kushwaha and Minister Ashok Choudhary were also present. According to sources, Nitish Kumar reviewed the polling situation and discussed future strategies, including various aspects of the alliance and election management.

We will release our analysis on Bihar Assembly Elections tomorrow 12 Nov 2025, which kindly be noted, says Today's Chanakya

AIMIM's Bihar chief, Akhtarul Iman, was renominated from the Amour Assembly constituency, which falls under the Kishanganj Lok Sabha seat. In the 2020 Assembly elections, Iman secured a victory by defeating JD(U) candidate Saba Zafar.

Folk singer and BJP leader Maithili Thakur is contesting the Bihar Assembly elections from the Alinagar constituency in Darbhanga. She faces a tough contest against RJD's Binod Mishra and Jan Suraaj's Biplaw Kumar Chowdhary. In the 2020 elections, Vikassheel Insaan Party's Mishri Lal Yadav narrowly won the seat, defeating Binod Mishra by just 3,101 votes. Earlier, in 2015, senior RJD leader Abdul Bari Siddiqui had claimed victory from Alinagar.

Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary is contesting the upcoming Bihar Assembly elections from the Tarapur constituency, a seat that has remained a JD(U) bastion for the past two decades. Interestingly, his father, Shakuni Choudhary, won Tarapur twice - first as an Independent and later as a Congress candidate in the 1990 Bihar Assembly election.

Former RJD leader Tej Pratap Yadav, son of Lalu Prasad Yadav, launched his own political outfit ahead of the Bihar Assembly elections and is contesting from the Mahua seat. He faces a tough challenge from RJD's sitting MLA Mukesh Kumar Raushan and LJP (Ram Vilas) candidate Sanjay Kumar. The Mahua constituency, traditionally an RJD stronghold, is expected to witness one of the election's most closely fought contests.

Mahagathbandhan's chief ministerial candidate Tejashwi Yadav is contesting from his family stronghold, Raghopur. He faces BJP's Satish Kumar, who had defeated his mother, Rabri Devi, in 2010 by a margin of 13,000 votes. Tejashwi later avenged that defeat with consecutive wins in 2015 and 2020, securing the last victory by over 38,000 votes. The Raghopur seat has long been associated with the Yadav family, having been won by Lalu Prasad in 1995 and 2000, and later represented by Rabri Devi in 2005.

This is a battle of prestige for both Mahagathbandhan and NDA. From Tejashwi Yadav to Tej Pratap Yadav to Maithili Thakur, take a look at big names in this election

In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, the NDA (BJP + JD(U)) won 12 of Seemanchal's 24 seats, while the INDIA bloc secured seven. Notably, 11 of the 24 constituencies in Seemanchal elected Muslim candidates, underscoring the community's political influence in the region.

The 2020 Assembly elections saw around 62% of Muslims voting for the Mahagathbandhan, while only 14% supported the NDA, which included JD(U) as an ally. The AIMIM managed to capture about 3% of Muslim votes, primarily in the Seemanchal region. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, roughly 68% of Muslim votes went to the INDIA bloc (Mahagathbandhan), while 17% favoured the NDA, including JD(U).

Historically, Muslims have largely supported the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, while Nitish Kumar's JD(U) also drew significant backing when it distanced itself from the BJP. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, after Nitish parted ways with the BJP, JD(U) secured over 20% of the Muslim vote. A year later, in the 2015 Assembly elections, when JD(U) contested as part of the Mahagathbandhan, it received around 19% of Muslim votes.

For the RJD-Congress alliance, Seemanchal holds particular strategic importance, given its high concentration of Muslim and Yadav voters - the traditional backbone of the coalition's support base.

Seemanchal's importance is deeply rooted in its demographic composition. Muslims make up over 60% of the population in Kishanganj, around 45% in Araria, more than 40% in Katihar, and nearly 30% in Purnia. The region also has a strong presence of Yadavs and Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), making it a microcosm of Bihar's complex caste and community-based politics. Notably, one-fourth of Bihar's 2.31 crore Muslim population resides in Seemanchal.

The politically crucial Seemanchal region comprises 24 assembly constituencies spread across Kishanganj, Araria, Katihar, and Purnia. While the number of seats may not seem large enough to determine Bihar's overall election outcome, analysts believe the voting patterns and mandate emerging from Seemanchal often influence the state's broader political narrative far beyond its numerical weight.

For Nitish Kumar, the key challenge lies in maintaining his 'Sushasan Babu' image among women voters while countering anti-incumbency sentiment, particularly among the state's job-seeking youth. Tejashwi Yadav, on the other hand, faces the task of overturning the NDA's advantage by transforming his strong youth appeal into votes - all while preventing women voters from gravitating toward Nitish's welfare-focused narrative.

A new political equation is emerging in Bihar. Dubbed the "M-Y factor", it is reshaping the state's electoral landscape. This time, however, the term doesn't represent the traditional Muslim-Yadav alliance that once fueled the RJD's success. Instead, it signifies a new demographic force - Mahila (women) and Yuva (youth) voters - whose contrasting preferences could ultimately decide the outcome of the November 14 battle for Bihar.

Year 2000 - 23

Year 2005 - 9

Year 2010 - 4

Year 2015 - 27

Year 2020 - 19

1951–52 - 42.6 (Lowest)

1957 - 43.24

1962 - 44.47

1967 - 51.51

1969 - 52.79

1972 - 52.79

1977 - 50.51

1980 - 57.28

1985 - 56.27

1990 - 62.04

1995 - 61.79

2000 - 62.57 (Highest)

2005–Feb - 46.5

2005–Oct - 45.85

2010 - 52.73

2015 - 56.91

2020 - 57.29

In the 2015 Bihar Assembly elections, the contest saw the BJP-led NDA-without JD(U)-pitted against the Mahagathbandhan, comprising JD(U), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), and the Congress. Most exit polls projected the NDA to secure between 100 and 127 seats, slightly ahead of the Mahagathbandhan but short of a clear majority. However, the final results defied these predictions, with the Mahagathbandhan securing a comfortable victory.

An opinion poll, often called a poll, is a voter behaviour survey carried out to measure public sentiment before the voting process begins, whereas an exit poll is conducted immediately after voting ends. Both rely on scientific sampling methods to capture the views of a specific section of the electorate.

Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, prohibits the conduct and publication of exit polls from the start of voting until thirty minutes after the conclusion of the final phase of polling.

The Times Now-C-Voter exit poll for the 2020 Assembly elections projected a hung house, forecasting 116 seats for the NDA and 120 for the Mahagathbandhan or Grand Alliance. The Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) was expected to win just one seat.

Most exit polls at the time predicted that the Tejashwi Yadav-led Mahagathbandhan would outperform the ruling Nitish Kumar-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar.

Total voters: Around 3.70 crore citizens are eligible to cast their votes across 122 constituencies in the second phase, which followed an intense campaign by political leaders.

Ministers in the fray: The phase will determine the fate of 12 ministers from Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's cabinet.

JD(U) ministers: Vijendra Yadav (Supaul), Lesi Singh (Dhamdaha), Jayant Kushwaha (Amarpur), Sumit Singh (Chakai), Mohammad Jama Khan (Chainpur), and Sheela Mandal (Phoolparas).

BJP ministers: Prem Kumar (Gaya), Renu Devi (Bettiah), Vijay Kumar Mandal (Sikati), Nitish Mishra (Jhanjharpur), Neeraj Bablu (Chhatapur), and Krishnanandan Paswan (Harsiddhi).

Other key constituencies: Sasaram, Imamganj, Mohania, Bihpur, Gopalpur, Pirpainti, Bhagalpur, Sultanganj, and Nathnagar.

Polling schedule: The first phase of voting has concluded, and the second phase for 122 seats is being held on November 11.

Result date: Counting of votes and declaration of results will take place on November 14.

BJP - 74

JDU - 43

RJD- 75

Congress - 19

Others - 32

To form a government in Bihar's 243-member Assembly, a party or alliance must secure at least 122 seats.

Vote counting for the 2025 Bihar Assembly election is scheduled for November 14, with the final results expected to be announced later that same day.

Exit polls offer an early glimpse into how voters may have cast their ballots, but they are not always reliable and should not be mistaken for the official results. In recent years, several exit polls have turned out to be inconsistent with the actual outcomes.

Exit polls are surveys carried out by major media outlets and independent agencies immediately after voting concludes. They provide an early snapshot of voter sentiment and emerging electoral trends. With Bihar's final phase of polling set to end on November 11, the exit poll results are expected to be released after 6:30 pm the same evening.

Following the blast near Delhi's Red Fort that left several dead, security has been tightened across multiple districts in Bihar for the second phase of the assembly elections, which began this morning.

At a polling station in the Bhagalpur constituency - where Congress' Ajeet Sharma faces BJP's Rohit Pandey in a direct contest - Central Industrial Security Force (CISF) Assistant Commandant Rushikesh Wakhare said security remains on high alert after the Delhi tragedy. He added that anti-sabotage checks have been completed and officers have been instructed to visit all polling booths.

Bhagalpur, a general category seat, has long witnessed fierce battles between the Congress and the BJP. In the 2020 assembly elections, Ajeet Sharma narrowly retained the seat, polling 65,502 votes (40.52%) against Rohit Pandey's 64,389 votes (39.83%), winning by a margin of just 1,113 votes.

In the first phase held on November 6, a "record" 65.09% of 3.75 crore voters across 121 constituencies cast their ballots - a turnout both rival camps claim favours them.

However, Jan Suraaj Party founder Prashant Kishor, seen as the election's 'X factor', attributes the surge in voter participation to growing support for his year-old party, which he says offers the "alternative" people have been seeking.

The proportion of people living in "multidimensional poverty" - lacking adequate health, education, and living standards - dropped from just over half in 2016 to around one-third in 2021, according to the latest data released last year.

Bihar ranks at the bottom among Indian states on poverty indicators, according to the government's NITI Aayog think tank. Its per capita GDP stands at just ₹52,379 - placing it only slightly ahead of nations such as the Central African Republic.

Analysts believe a victory here could "energise" the BJP's momentum in other crucial states ahead of next year's elections. Bihar - a Hindu-majority state and India's third most populous, comparable in size to Mexico - is seen as a key political barometer. It also stands out as the only state in the Hindi heartland where Prime Minister Modi's Hindu nationalist party has never governed on its own.

As voting wraps up today, attention now turns to the exit poll projections, which are expected to be released after 6.30 pm, once polling officially concludes, in accordance with Election Commission of India guidelines. In previous elections, including the Delhi polls, the ECI had strictly prohibited the conduct, publication, or broadcast of exit polls before the designated time.

The polls have also witnessed the entry of a new political party founded by Prashant Kishor, a former political strategist who has previously worked with both the BJP and the Congress.

This year's election follows a controversial revision of the electoral rolls, which the Opposition claimed could potentially exclude genuine voters and favour the ruling BJP. The Election Commission defended its process, noting that it had released a list of 74.2 million voters in September after removing about 4.7 million names.

Women voters, who now constitute nearly half of the electorate and have shown consistently higher turnout rates, are expected to play a decisive role in shaping the election outcome.

The first phase, held on November 6, recorded a voter turnout of around 65 per cent, a significant rise from the 57.29 per cent turnout registered in the 2020 polls. Analysts say the higher participation indicates increased public engagement and voter enthusiasm.

Several prominent polling agencies-including Axis My India, CVoter, IPSOS, Jan Ki Baat, Today's Chanakya, and CNN-News18-are slated to release their predictions across various platforms later this evening.

The fiercely contested election will decide whether Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's JD(U)-BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) retains power, or if Tejashwi Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led INDIA bloc succeeds in unseating the nine-time chief minister.

Hello and welcome to Moneycontrol. Bihar is gearing up for the release of exit poll results as the second and final phase of the high-stakes assembly elections concludes shortly. Polling is being conducted across 122 of the state's 243 constituencies, with voting underway since 7 am.