Exit polls say ‘phir ek baar NDA sarkar’ with big boost for Nitish Kumar

Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Bihar multiple times in the last few months and launched development projects worth crores.

Exit polls after the final phase of the Bihar Assembly elections on Tuesday predicted a clear victory for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar-led National Democratic Alliance.

In the 2025 election, the NDA faced the opposition Rashtriya Janata Dal, allied with Congress. A new group, Jan Suraaj, floated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s former poll manager Prashant Kishor, was also in the fray.

The News18 Mega Exit Poll 2025 predicted that the NDA will win 140-150 seats while the Mahagathbandhan will bag 85-95 seats. Meanwhile, the Jan Suraaj Party will win 0-5 seats while others will secure 5-10 seats.

According to the Matrize-IANS exit poll,  the NDA will win 147-167 seats. The opposition Mahagathbandhan alliance is likely to win 70-90 seats, and the Jan Suraaj Party is expected to get 0-2 seats.

People's Insight also predicted major victory for NDA with 133–148 seats, followed by the Mahagathbandhan (87–102)seats, Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) 0–2 seats, and others 3–6 seats.

Meanwhile, Peoples Pulse indicated a clear edge for the NDA, projected at 133–159 seats with a strong 46.2% vote share. The NDA appears on course to cross the 122-mark.

The JVC-Times Now exit poll predicted a victory for the NDA with 135-150 seats in its favour, while the Mahagathbandhan is likely to win 88-103 seats. The Jan Suraaj Party is likely to win 0-1 seats.

Being the third most populous state in India, Bihar holds significant political weight with 243 Assembly and 40 Lok Sabha seats.

A victory in Bihar election would also set the tone for the future of NDA in the upcoming elections in 2026. Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, and Assam will go to polls next year. Among these states, the BJP leads the state government only in Assam.

In 2020, the NDA polled a meagre 0.03 per cent more votes than the Mahagathbandhan in a close contest. Back then, the NDA comprised BJP, JDU, Mukesh Sahni's VIP, and Jitan Ram Manjhi's HAM. Collectively, the NDA got 1,57,02,650 votes with 37.26 per cent.

In 2015, the Mahagathbandhan also comprised the JD(U); whereas the NDA was headed by the BJP, and included smaller regional players. The alliance secured a decisive victory, winning 178 seats in total. Within the coalition, the RJD emerged as the single largest party with 80 seats, followed by JD(U) with 71 seats and the Congress with 27 seats.

On the other hand, the NDA managed to win only 58 seats—of which the BJP claimed 53, the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) 2, the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) 2, and the Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) 1.

This time, the NDA has been banking on its image of "sushasan" (good governance) in contrast to the alleged "jungle raj" of the RJD-Congress combine. If it wins, for NDA, Bihar will be crucial for promoting its Hindutva and development narrative among rural and backward communities.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Bihar multiple times in the last few months and launched development projects worth crores. These visits focused on politically weaker areas for the BJP, particularly Rohtas, Shahabad, and Siwan, where around Rs 60,000 crore of the total allocations have been made.

In 2025, the NDA also allocated its tickets in ways that revealed a pronounced alignment with upper caste interests, other than some attempt at diversity among OBCs, EBCs and Dalits.

If NDA wins, it would also mean that a critical aspect of the BJP's strategy, which has historically relied on upper caste support, a demographic that remains influential in the state's politics, has worked.

“In 2020, we ceded the CM’s post to Nitish despite winning 74 seats as against the JD(U)’s 43. And now, (Union Home Minister) Amit Shah may have stopped shy of naming the NDA’s CM face, but Nitish will return as CM if his party wins 55–60 seats,” a senior BJP leader told Indian Express.

The numbers also mean that NDA Sankalp Patra promises, like one crore jobs and free healthcare, to negate the voter fatigue, have won over the voters.

A win would also mean that the coalition’s biggest strength, its dual-engine government – “Brand Modi” and Nitish Kumar, worked in its favour.