JDU surge to power NDA's sweeping Bihar victory: News18 Exit Poll

The official results of the Bihar Assembly elections will be out on November 14.

The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is set for a decisive victory in Bihar, with the News18 Mega Exit Poll predicting that the alliance will bag 140-150 seats in the 243-member assembly — a clear improvement over its 2020 tally of 125 seats.

The opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB) is expected to finish a distant second with 85 to 95 seats, while the Prashant Kishor-led Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) is likely to draw a blank, according to the projection.

Within the NDA, Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) is seen as the standout performer, with the party set to win 60–70 seats, up sharply from 43 in 2020, according to the exit poll. If the predictions hold true, JD(U) will emerge as the single largest party in Bihar.

Meanwhile, BJP is likely to secure 55–65 seats, slightly lower than its 74-seat tally in the previous election, the exit polls predicted. Notably, the party contested 101 seats in the 2025 election compared to 110 seats in 2020.

Smaller NDA partners such as the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) and Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAMS) are expected to collectively contribute up to 20 seats, ensuring a comfortable majority for the ruling coalition, the predictions said.

In contrast, the MGB appears to be losing ground, if the predictions are anything to go by.

The RJD, which had won 75 seats in 2020, is now projected to secure 50–60, while the Congress may remain stagnant at 15–20 seats. The Left bloc, which performed strongly last time, could see a slight dip, with CPI(ML-L) predicted at 10–15 and CPI and CPM likely capped at 0–5 each.

The News18 exit poll prediction, if it holds true, shows a big boost for Nitish Kumar who has been saddled with factors like anti-incumbency and criticism over his health. It also shows that the people of Bihar are set to repose their faith in the double-engine NDA sarkar. It also portends a bad road ahead for the broader INDIA bloc, which has already suffered several setbacks since a spirited turnaround during the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

The exit poll predictions also show that Tejashwi Yadav, who is the CM face of the Mahagathbandhan and heir apparent of Lalu Yadav, has failed to strike a chord with the voters yet again, in his second such election.

Region-wise prediction show NDA edge across Bihar 

News18 Exit polls show that the NDA is likely to consolidate its position across all major regions of Bihar, showing gains in areas such as Bhojpur, Magadh, Mithila, and Seemanchal.

NDA makes inroads in Muslim and SIR-affected area

Muslim and Scheduled Tribe (ST) constituencies saw the sharpest rise in voter turnout in Bihar’s 2025 Assembly elections, according to a Moneycontrol analysis of ECI data till 7 PM on polling day. Turnout in 32 Muslim-majority seats across Seemanchal and Koshi jumped 11.7 points to 71.9 percent, while the two ST-reserved constituencies saw a 13-point surge to 75.2 percent — the highest across all regions this election.

Most other exit polls indicate a clear advantage for the NDA, suggesting that this coalition could secure one of its strongest mandates in recent years. According to the major exit polls, the Mahagathbandhan is projected to receive the following seat estimates: People's Pulse (75-101), People's Insights (87-102), Matrize (70-90), Chanakya Strategies (100-108), and Dainik Bhaskar (73-91).

The official results of the Bihar Assembly elections will be out on November 14.

If the numbers hold, the verdict would reinforce the NDA’s dominance in Bihar and reassert Nitish Kumar’s political relevance.