Bihar Exit Polls 2025: Massive setback for Tejashwi Yadav's RJD, Mahagathbandhan predicted to win 75-100 seats

Tejashwi Yadav

After months of extensive campaigning and an effort to pit the election as one for the routine everyday issues , the predictions from major exit polls is extremely grim for the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). Major pollsters have predicted an average tally between 75-100 seats from the Mahagathbandhan, of which RJD is an important component. If such predictions hold true on November 14, it will be a big dent not only to the Mahagathbandhan, but more so to the RJD, who fought the election primarily with Tejashwi Yadav as its face.

News18 exit poll, conducted independently, have predicted that the RJD will win 50-60 seats, a big climbdown from 2020, when it won 75 seats.

According to major exit polls, Mahagathbandhan is expected to get ( People's Pulse (75-101), People's Insights (87-102), Matrize (70-90) Chankya Strategies (100-108) Dainik Bhaskar (73-91).

If one closely followed the Rashtriya Janata Dal's campaign leading upto the Bihar assembly polls, a glaring omission stood out. That omission is no other than the relegation of RJD patriarch Lalu Prasad Yadav's to the backseat and Tejashwi occupying the centerstage. A campaign that truly focused on employment, curbing outward migration and providing basic amenities for the people of the state.

RJD's campaign was also bolstered by the fact that the Grand Alliance, commonly referred to as the Mahagathbandhan declared Tejashwi Yadav as their chief ministerial candidate dismissing previous rumors of unending logjam within the alliance regarding various aspects of seat-sharing.

The singular emphasis on issues that are more relevant to common masses made all the more sense with National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) attacking the RJD regime for allowing criminals to have a free run and running a government marred my multiple scams.

In 2020, the Yadav-dominated party, having contested in 144 seats, managed to win 75 seats with a vote share of 23.5 per cent. In fact, RJD in 2020 assembly polls had the highest vote share followed by the Bharatiya Janata Party. In a climbdown from 2020 figures, the RJD is contesting on 143 seats in 2025.

In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, most exit polls had predicted a narrow victory for the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan. An average of 11 surveys placed the alliance at 125 seats, just above the majority mark of 122 in the 243-member House, while giving the JD(U)-led NDA 108 seats.

However, the final results went the other way. The NDA secured 125 seats, narrowly crossing the halfway mark, while the Mahagathbandhan managed 110. That year, the undivided Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) contested independently, and the Mukesh Sahani-led Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), which is now with the Opposition, was then part of the NDA.