Rbi Policy Review

Inflation is pinching the average Indian, something that is visible in slowing sales of footwear

RBI Shift in Stance: Signalling cautious optimism

RBI’s focussed battle with inflation is paying off, but a rate cut still seems to hang in the balance 

MPC signals monetary easing; time and size of rate cuts hinge on inflation

Whether a rate cut would be seen in December or later depends on how much inflation comes down

RBI’s monetary policy prioritises global economic headwinds

MPC has given relative significance to global headwinds and uncertainties. Therefore, a sudden reduction in rates is not feasible when inflation expectations are elevated. The catch, however, is high rates complicate public debt management 

Monetary Policy | Rate cut in December 2024 is not a done deal

The change in stance to neutral opens the door for a potential rate cut in the December 2024 meeting. If two macro indicators play a supportive role, they could tilt the balance in favour of a rate cut

Bond yields to keep drifting lower despite RBI's status quo policy

The central bank wants to be doubly sure about the trajectory of food prices before initiating rate-cut action

RBI policy: A series of fortunate events don’t make it easy

While easing core inflation gives reason to rejoice, what matters ultimately is the overall headline number. Food inflation is expected to give its share of trouble with farm output under a cloud

October blues bring monetary policy dilemmas in their wake  

The RBI cannot be seen raising rates and tamping down on demand during the festival season, especially on the eve of a critical general election that is likely to be held in the next 6-8 months

As MPC holds rates, RBI impounds excess liquidity to counter upcoming inflation surge

The upward shift in the inflation trajectory, with strong domestic growth impulses, also signals that the MPC can maintain and extend this pause over the rest of the year, provided that the actual inflation prints are in line with the projected path 

MPC meet would be unexciting with a status quo outcome

It would not be an exaggeration to suggest that bond yields in India are taking cues more from global bond markets than from domestic developments

RBI’s pause is a pivot killer with the 4 percent inflation target

RBI governor Das's emphasis on getting retail inflation down to 4 percent will mean the policy rate will stay high for longer

PMI survey sends a message to Monetary Policy Committee

The MPC members must take the rise in PMI price indices into account

RBI surprised with a pause and Nifty has gone up, but will the rally go on?

Whether or not FIIs continue buying will depend on whether central banks stick with the pause

The fixed income party’s not over, only the venue has shifted

A pause in rate hikes has seen some equity bulls rejoice while the fixed income camp wears a desolate look. Both are jumping the gun

Moneycontrol Pro Weekender: Have the facts changed? 

The MPC decision to pause is a bet on lower global growth and inflation

The impact of key near-term events on the markets

The degree of pessimism has reduced, but it is still too soon to put on our bullish hats

Composite PMI data bolster case for rate hike

The India Composite PMI for March was a strong 58.4, on top of a scorching 59 for February 

Expect RBI to take a pause, forward guidance by the MPC may be open ended

Rate hikes, subsidies and price caps are temporary and symptomatic fixes to structurally high inflation. This is not to suggest that RBI should look to ease monetary conditions, but that given enough time, existing monetary policy is already restrictive enough to address our current inflation situation 

MPC caught in tri-junction of rates, liquidity and electoral politics

Dissent within the MPC, elections, inflation, liquidity and stress in a critical but vulnerable part of the credit market are some of the main challenges confronting policymakers

India’s growth will not slow down: RBI Bulletin’s state of the economy report

The report says, markets are bracing for tighter financial conditions which could present a trade-off between financial stability concerns and the conduct of disinflationary monetary policy

The price shocker: Cereal inflation trumps vegetable deflation

Inflation is above the RBI’s 6 percent target not only in food and beverages, but also clothing and footwear, fuel & light, household goods and services, health services and personal care and effects 

Keen to read the market’s mind after the latest MPC meet? A user’s guide

The same quantum of rate hikes points to a narrowing yield spread between India and US. This would make Indian assets more attractive for foreign investors 

What's the importance of vegetable prices in India's monetary policy? A lot

The fact that Consumer Price Inflation excluding vegetable prices is so high is a clear signal that the rate hikes haven’t succeeded in their objective 

MPC's signal: Tightening cycle is not over yet

An unchanged stance signals that a majority of the MPC members are of the view that a terminal rate in the current tightening cycle has not yet been reached

The policy rate hike, GDP growth, core inflation and vegetable prices 

MPC says headline inflation excluding vegetables has been rising well above the upper tolerance band and may remain elevated, especially with high core inflation pressures