After sinking 1.25 percent each in the past two sessions, experts expect the bears to increase pressure on Nifty and target the 24,300–24,000 zone in the upcoming sessions, though there is a possibility of some recovery later. On the contrary, 25,000 may remain a crucial resistance level
Given the complete dominance of bears, driven by subdued momentum, weak technical indicators, and a sell-off across global markets, the previous day's low (24,603) and the August low (24,338) are expected to be at major risk in the upcoming session. Below these levels, bears may target 24,000, experts said.
Weekly options data suggested that the Nifty 50 is likely to trade in the 24,500–25,000 range in the short term, as a breakout from this range could provide firm directional cues on either side.
Experts expect a gap-down market opening on March 2, with the Nifty 50 likely breaking the psychological 25,000 zone, followed by a move toward the 24,850 support (the long upward-sloping support trendline).
The momentum indicators maintained a sell signal, and the bears received a further boost from intensified US-Iran tensions, both of which hint at a sharp gap-down opening for the market on March 2.
The weekly options data suggest that 25,000, where the maximum Put open interest is placed, is expected to act as key short-term support, while resistance is seen at 25,400–25,500, which holds the maximum Call open interest.
The Nifty 50 has been taking support at 25,400 on a closing basis since last week; hence, falling decisively below it can take the index down toward 25,250 (200-day EMA) in upcoming sessions. However, the 25,600–25,650 zone is acting as a hurdle, which needs to be convincingly surpassed for a move toward 25,900–26,000.
If the Nifty 50 decisively breaks below the 25,400–25,350 levels, further weakness toward 25,250 and 25,000 cannot be ruled out in the upcoming sessions. However, the immediate resistance is placed in the 25,600–25,650 zone, and only a convincing trade above this range may bring the bulls back, according to experts.
The Nifty is expected to consolidate as long as it trades below the 25,650–25,700 resistance zone, with immediate support at the 25,400–25,300 zone. However, a decisive trade above 25,700 can raise the possibility of a move toward 25,900–26,000.
Consolidation with range-bound trading is expected to persist in the short term until the Nifty 50 decisively breaks out of the 25,300–25,900 range on either side.
The weekly options data suggests that the 25,500–25,700 zone is expected to act as key resistance, with crucial support at 25,000 and immediate support at 25,400.
If the Nifty rebounds after the sharp sell-off, it may face a hurdle at 25,500–25,600. However, in the case of further consolidation, the index may retest the 25,300–25,200 levels if it decisively falls below 25,400.
Given the sharp sell-off, the Nifty 50 may attempt a bounce-back, facing resistance at the 25,500–25,600 levels, as sustaining above this zone alone can push the index toward 26,000. However, in the event of further consolidation, the 25,300–25,200 range is expected to act as an immediate support zone.
The weekly options data indicated that the Nifty may face immediate resistance at 25,500, where the maximum Call open interest is placed, while support is placed at 25,000, which has the maximum Put open interest.
If the Nifty 50 fails to defend the previous day's low (around 25,600), a fall toward 25,500–25,400 can be seen. However, on the higher side, 25,800 is crucial for a further uptrend toward 26,000.
The immediate key hurdle for Nifty 50 is placed at 25,800. Surpassing and sustaining this level could prepare the index for a move toward the 25,900–26,000 zone, which may open the door to a record high. Until then, range-bound trading may continue.
The monthly options data suggest that the Nifty may remain in the 25,500–26,000 range in the short term, as a decisive close on either side of the range can provide firm direction to the Nifty 50.
Bulls are likely to gain more strength on Monday, especially after the Supreme Court ruled against Trump’s tariffs. Hence, the Nifty 50 is expected to march toward 25,900, which is the pivot point, as only sustaining above it can take the index toward the next key resistance at 26,000.
As long as the index holds above this level, along with the positive signal from the US Supreme Court striking down Trump’s tariffs with a 6–3 vote—though Trump later announced an increase in global tariffs to 15 percent from 10 percent—a possible move toward the 25,900–26,000 levels (which also coincide with recent swing highs) may occur in the upcoming sessions.
The benchmark Nifty 50 needs to surpass and sustain above the 25,650–25,700 zone for a further upward journey toward 25,800, followed by 25,900.
If the Nifty 50 fails to defend the 25,400–25,350 zone, the 25,300–25,200 range cannot be ruled out in the next few sessions. However, holding above this zone could possibly take the index toward the 25,500–25,600 range.
If the Nifty 50 decisively breaks 25,400 in the upcoming sessions, a fall toward the 25,300–25,200 zone cannot be ruled out. However, holding above 25,400 could take the index toward the 25,500–25,600 zone.
Technically, the day’s market action indicates the formation of a ‘Bearish Engulfing’ pattern and a faster retracement of the previous three sessions’ range on the downside within a single session. This is not a good sign for the Nifty.
If the Nifty 50 sustains above 25,800, a further upmove toward 25,900–26,000 can be seen in the upcoming sessions. However, below this level, the index may consolidate with range-bound trading, with 25,650 acting as support.
The continuation of the higher high–higher low formation, falling VIX, decisive breakout of the downward-sloping resistance trendline, and improving momentum indicators signalled a positive mood in the market.