Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50 break resistance at 25,400, Bank Nifty reclaim 57,000?

Nifty Trading Plan for October 16

The Nifty 50 bulls gained strength with a bullish bias in momentum and technical indicators. Hence, according to experts, the index is expected to see a falling resistance trendline breakout (around 25,380-25,400), followed by 25,450 as the key resistance — which can open the door for the June high. However, support is placed at 25,150 and 25,060. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty is likely to achieve the 57,000 mark, followed by its record high of 57,628. However, 56,200 — which coincides with Tuesday’s low and the 10-day EMA — can act as support.

On October 15, the Nifty 50 soared 178 points (0.71 percent) to 25,324, while the Bank Nifty rallied 303 points (0.54 percent) to 56,800. The market breadth was in favour of the bulls. About 1,789 shares saw buying interest against 1,045 shares that witnessed selling pressure.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities

The daily chart showcased a large bullish candle with a minor upper shadow, reflecting sustained buying interest throughout the session — a sign that the bulls are lighting up the market mood.

Technically, the index is now approaching a crucial juncture, nearing a breakout above the downward-sloping trendline formed by connecting the swing highs since June 2025. A decisive breakout above this resistance zone could act as the next spark for a fresh round of the Diwali rally.

The index continues to trade above all its key moving averages, which are trending upward, confirming a strengthening bullish undertone. The 14-period RSI has climbed above 60, reinforcing the positive momentum and hinting that the festival of lights might also bring brighter days for the bulls.

Overall, the setup suggests that the Nifty is gearing up for a potential breakout, with 25,360–25,400 acting as the immediate hurdle. A sustained move above 25,400 could open the doors for a sharp rally towards 25,550 and 25,700 in the short term — keeping the festive cheer alive. On the downside, the 20-day EMA zone of 25,100–25,060 will continue to act as a strong support base for the index.

Key Resistance: 25,400, 25,550, 25,700

Key Support: 25,100, 25,060

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures at around 25,380–25,450, with a stop-loss of 25,300, targeting 25,700.

Nilesh Jain, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research Analyst (Equity Research) at Centrum Broking

The Nifty index regained momentum and closed above the immediate hurdle of 25,300. Earlier, it found strong support near its 21-DMA, placed around 25,060, which is likely to act as a key support level going forward. Momentum indicators and oscillators remain firmly in buy mode on both the daily and weekly charts.

The index is now on the verge of a major breakout from a falling trendline, with resistance seen near 25,450. A decisive move above this level could open the upside towards 25,800, which appears likely. The overall structure remains positive, with an immediate upside target of 25,440. Additionally, the volatility index “India VIX” cooling off below the 11 mark is further supporting the bullish sentiment.

(Spot levels)
Key Resistance: 25,448, 25,550

Key Support: 25,200, 25,065

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures above 25,470, with a stop-loss of 25,320, targeting 25,700.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The Nifty moved up smartly, shrugging off the negativity from the previous session. The index continues to trade comfortably above the 21-EMA (25,061), reinforcing the bullish momentum. A bullish crossover between the 21-EMA and 50-EMA further adds to the positive outlook, while the RSI also remains in a bullish crossover. In the short term, the index may move towards 25,500–25,600. On the downside, a fall below 25,250 could trigger a short-term correction.

Key Resistance: 25,500, 25,600

Key Support: 25,250, 25,100

Strategy: Buy Nifty 25,500 strike Call of October 20 expiry around Rs 50, with a stop-loss of Rs 24, targeting Rs 100.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities

On Wednesday, the banking index broke out of a three-day consolidation range, signalling renewed bullish momentum — much like how Diwali renews optimism each year.

The Bank Nifty–Nifty ratio chart continues to form higher tops and higher bottoms, a classic sign of outperformance and trend continuation, suggesting that banking stocks are likely to lead the market celebrations in the near term.

From a technical standpoint, Bank Nifty is trading 2.4 percent above its 50-day EMA and over 3 percent above its 100-day EMA, reflecting the strength of the ongoing uptrend. With all key moving averages pointing upward and the daily RSI maintaining its bullish stance, the setup reinforces that momentum remains firmly in favour of the bulls.

The breakout from the recent consolidation, combined with strong internals and sectoral leadership, positions Bank Nifty for further upside. As long as it holds above the 56,200 support zone, the index could continue its northward journey towards 57,500, followed by 58,200 in the short term — keeping the Diwali glow alive across Dalal Street.

Key Resistance: 57,500, 58,200

Key Support: 56,200

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures at around 56,800–57,000, with a stop-loss of 56,500, targeting 57,700.

Nilesh Jain, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research Analyst (Equity Research) at Centrum Broking

Bank Nifty outperformed the broader Nifty index and successfully closed above the 56,700 mark, signalling renewed buying interest. Immediate support is placed near 56,300, while a decisive move above 57,000 could trigger a follow-up rally towards 57,500, aided by short covering. Momentum indicators and oscillators remain in buy mode on the daily chart, reinforcing the positive setup. Based on this structure, it is advisable to initiate long positions in Bank Nifty Futures on a breakout above 57,100, with a stop-loss placed below 56,750.

(Spot levels)
Key Resistance: 57,000, 57,400

Key Support: 56,490, 56,200

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures above 57,100, with a stop-loss of 56,750, targeting 57,400/57,700.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The sentiment around the banking space remained strong as the index continues to stay above its previous swing high. On the recent chart, the RSI has also broken out above its prior swing high, reinforcing the bullish momentum. Initial support is placed at 56,200; a fall below this level might trigger weakness in the space. Until then, a smart upside move is expected in Bank Nifty, potentially heading towards 57,200–57,700 in the short term.

Key Resistance: 57,200, 57,700

Key Support: 56,200

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty 57,000 strike Call of October expiry at Rs 438, with a stop-loss of Rs 370, targeting Rs 580.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.