Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50 achieve its 2025 peak, Bank Nifty break records before Diwali?

Nifty Trading Plan ahead of Diwali

The Nifty bulls gained more strength after recent profit booking, thanks to healthy momentum and technical indicators. Overall, the trend remains up despite likely intermittent consolidation. According to experts, the index is gradually expected to achieve its high (25,669) of the current year, followed by the 26,000 zone. However, support is placed at the 25,400–25,300 zone. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty is very close to its record high (57,628). If the index reclaims and sustains above it, the 58,000 level is the one to watch. However, 57,000–56,900 can act as a support zone.

On October 16, the Nifty 50 surged 262 points (1.03 percent) to 25,585, while the Bank Nifty spiked 623 points (1.1 percent) to 57,423. The market breadth was dominated by bulls. A total of 1,666 shares advanced against 1,159 declining shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivative Research Analyst at Samco Securities

The Nifty index extended its winning streak, sustaining above the crucial 25,500 breakout zone and edging closer to its four-month highs. Strong follow-up buying and short covering kept the momentum intact as the index traded well above its 10- and 20-day EMAs, reinforcing a firm support base at 25,200–25,300.

Aggressive Put writing at these levels and a rising PCR to 1.54 indicate strong bullish conviction. Technically, a move above 25,650 could trigger a fresh rally toward 25,800, while the RSI above 65 signals persistent strength. Overall, the structure remains positive, favouring a buy-on-dips strategy for the near term.

Key Resistance: 25,650, 25,800, 26,000

Key Support: 25,370, 25,250, 25,150

Strategy: Traders may consider a Bull Put Spread strategy for the October 20 expiry by selling one lot of 25,800 PE at Rs 219 and buying one lot of 25,600 PE at Rs 91. This setup is designed to capitalize on potential upside momentum.

Stop Loss: Hold the strategy until expiry, with the maximum Mark-to-Market (MTM) loss capped at Rs 5,411.

Target: Hold the strategy until expiry to achieve a maximum profit of Rs 9,589, or consider booking profits once the MTM gains exceed Rs 5,500.

Arun Kumar Mantri, Founder of Mantri FinMart

Nifty has managed to strongly surpass the previous resistance and psychological mark of 25,400–25,500 on the charts, with strong support now placed around 25,200–25,250 on the lower side, where short-term technical moving averages are positioned—followed by good open interest addition in the Puts of the next weekly options expiry.

The trend of the index remains bullish as long as it holds above the 25,100–25,200 mark on a closing basis. Overall, we expect the markets to consolidate with a strong bullish bias in the broad range of 25,200–25,800 for the short-term timeframe with a positive outlook.

Key Resistance: 25,760, 25,800

Key Support: 25,200, 25,250

Strategy: We advise short-term traders to adopt a “buy on dips” approach in the markets towards 25,350–25,400 (spot levels), keeping a strict stop-loss below 25,200, and placing targets at 25,750 and 25,800 levels.

Hardik Matalia, Derivative Analyst at Choice Broking

The Nifty 50 formed a strong bullish candlestick on the daily chart. This price action reflects growing optimism and signals a potential continuation of the uptrend in the near term. On the downside, immediate support is placed at 25,500, followed by 25,400, while on the upside, resistance is seen at 25,700 and 25,800 levels. A decisive move above 25,800 could further extend the rally towards higher zones.

Considering the current strength in market sentiment and supportive chart structure, traders can adopt a ‘buy-on-dips’ approach near support zones, while maintaining strict stop-loss levels to manage risk effectively in this positive yet cautious market environment.

Key Resistance: 25,700, 25,800

Key Support: 25,500, 25,400

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips near 25,400 levels, with a stop-loss of 25,300 on a closing basis, targeting 25,700–25,800 levels.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivative Research Analyst at Samco Securities

The Nifty Bank index continued its strong upward momentum, approaching its record high of 57,628 as bulls dominated trade with firm buying across private and PSU banks. The index remains in a robust uptrend, sustaining above the 57,000 breakout mark and comfortably holding above key moving averages, reinforcing strong demand near 56,900–57,000.

Aggressive Put writing and a rising PCR to 1.15 indicate firm bullish sentiment. Technically, a decisive move above 57,600 could trigger fresh long additions and short-covering, propelling the index toward 58,200. With the RSI above 70 and momentum intact, dips remain buying opportunities for traders.

Key Resistance: 57,650, 57,800, 58,000

Key Support: 57,100, 56,900, 56,750

Strategy: Traders can consider buying Nifty Bank October Futures if the price crosses above 57,550–57,600, setting a stop-loss below 57,350. Profit-taking can be considered once the index reaches 57,870–57,980.

Arun Kumar Mantri, Founder of Mantri FinMart

Bank Nifty has been one of the catalysts for the recent strong move, fuelling gains in overall market sentiment and now just less than half a percent away from all-time highs. The index has given a breakout above the 56,700 mark, surpassing stiff resistances and is now trading with a positive bias. The overall short-term trend of the index seems extremely bullish as long as it holds above 56,700 on the lower side, while any major dip will likely lead to the next leg of short covering from lower levels.

Key Resistance: 58,000, 58,050

Key Support: 56,700, 56,750

Strategy: Aggressive traders may go long in the banking index on dips around 57,000–57,100, keeping a strict stop-loss below 56,700, for targets of 57,800–58,000+ on the higher side.

Hardik Matalia, Derivative Analyst at Choice Broking

The Bank Nifty index extended its winning streak, hovering near its record high levels. Throughout the previous session, sustained buying interest across major banking heavyweights supported the uptrend, leading to the formation of a strong bullish candlestick on the daily chart. This price action reflects continued strength and positive momentum in the banking space.

On the downside, immediate support is placed at 57,300, followed by 57,100, which are likely to act as key demand zones. On the upside, resistance is seen at 57,600 and 57,800 levels. A decisive move above the record high could attract further buying interest and open the path toward new highs in the near term.

Considering the prevailing bullish sentiment and strong technical structure, traders are advised to adopt a ‘buy-on-dips’ strategy while maintaining strict stop-losses to manage risk effectively.

Key Resistance: 57,600, 57,800

Key Support: 57,300, 57,100

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips near the 57,100 level, with a stop-loss of 56,900 on a closing basis, for a target of 57,600–57,800 levels.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.