Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50, Bank Nifty defend Thursday’s low amid likely consolidation?

Nifty Trading Plan For October 10

The Nifty 50 remains in a healthy position, supported by strong technical and momentum indicators, though there could be consolidation and rangebound trading in the immediate term. According to experts, a decisive and sustained move above the 25,200–25,250 zone can open the door to 25,450–25,500, followed by 25,670. However, support remains at the 25,000–24,900 zone. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty needs to clear the 56,300–56,500 zone to resume its upward journey toward 57,000. Until then, it may consolidate within the 56,000–58,000 support range.

On October 9, the Nifty 50 soared 136 points to close at 25,182 (after hitting an intraday high of 25,199 and low of 25,024), while the Bank Nifty climbed 174 points to 56,192 (with an intraday high of 56,286 and low of 55,844). The market breadth was almost neutral, with 1,418 shares gaining and 1,392 shares declining on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivative Research Analyst at Samco Securities

The Nifty’s consolidation phase continues, but its ability to hold above the 25,000 psychological mark underscores underlying market strength and sustained buying interest on dips. Strong support from the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and the 0.382 Fibonacci level near 24,900, indicates a robust demand zone. On the upside, a decisive break above 25,200–25,250 could unleash a short-covering rally toward 25,500.

Derivatives data reflect strong Put writing at 25,000, hinting at bullish undertones. With the RSI above 50 and India VIX stable, sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. Until a breakout, the index is likely to trade sideways, with buy-on-dips strategies favoured near key support.

Key Resistance: 25,200, 25,400, 25,550

Key Support: 25,000, 24,870, 24,700

Strategy: Traders may consider a Bull Put Spread strategy for the October 14 expiry by selling one lot of 25,400 PE at Rs 208 and buying one lot of 25,200 PE at Rs 77. This setup is designed to capitalize on potential upside momentum.

Stop-Loss: Hold the strategy until expiry, with the maximum MTM loss capped at Rs 5,190.

Target: Hold until expiry to achieve a maximum profit of Rs 9,810, or consider booking profits once MTM gains exceed Rs 5,200.

Jay Mehta, Technical Research at JM Financial Services

Nifty is currently trading above all key EMAs, with upward-sloping averages reflecting inherent strength. Momentum indicators are in bullish territory, signalling sustained positive momentum ahead. The daily and weekly structures remain bullish as long as the index holds above 24,600.

Since Tuesday, Nifty has been consolidating tightly, with a shooting star pattern forming that day. A breakout above 25,221 is required to unleash further bullish momentum. Immediate downside support lies at the psychological 25,000 and 24,800 levels.

Volatility indicators on daily and weekly timeframes suggest a broader trading range of 24,600–25,600, with contracting volatility hinting at a strong move post-breakout.

Key Resistance: 25,221, 25,400, 25,600

Key Support: 25,000, 24,920, 24,800

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures at current levels and add on dips near 25,000 and 24,900, with a stop-loss at 24,800, targeting 25,400 and 25,600.

Amruta Shinde, Technical & Derivative Analyst at Choice Broking

On the daily chart, the Nifty 50 has formed a strong bullish candlestick pattern, indicating sustained strength and underlying buying interest. On the downside, immediate support is placed at 25,084, and a breach below this level could intensify selling pressure, potentially opening the way toward the 25,000–24,900 zone.

On the upside, the index faces immediate resistance at 25,330, followed by a stronger hurdle near 25,500. A decisive move above this level would be needed to trigger fresh buying momentum toward 25,640.

Key Resistance: 25,330, 25,500

Key Support: 25,000, 24,900

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips around 25,200, with a stop-loss at 25,000 on a closing basis, for a target of 25,500–25,640.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivative Research Analyst at Samco Securities

Bank Nifty remains resilient, consolidating within a tight band of 55,700–56,300, while firmly defending its crucial support zone. The index’s ability to sustain above the confluence of its 10- and 20-day EMAs, along with the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement near 55,600, highlights strong underlying demand.

Derivatives data indicate persistent Put writing at the 56,000 strike price, signalling traders' confidence in holding current levels. With RSI sustaining above 60 and the index positioned well above key moving averages, sentiment remains constructive.

A decisive breakout above 56,300–56,500 could trigger sharp short covering, propelling the index toward 57,000, while dips remain well-supported near 55,700.

Key Resistance: 56,300, 56,500, 56,800

Key Support: 55,900, 55,700, 55,500

Strategy: Traders can consider buying Bank Nifty October Futures if the price crosses above 56,450–56,500, setting a stop-loss below 56,220. Profit-taking can be considered once the index reaches 56,800–56,900.

Jay Mehta, Technical Research at JM Financial Services

Bank Nifty recently broke out above an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern with a bullish gap in Monday’s session, reinforcing a positive structure. The index exhibits relative strength compared to Nifty. Momentum indicators are in bullish territory, indicating potential for continued strength.

The price trades above all key EMAs, with the structure likely to remain bullish while above 55,500. Below that, the next strong support lies at 54,700. Thursday's candle engulfed yesterday’s spinning top, a short-term bullish signal. Volatility and trend indicators suggest continued bullish momentum.

Key Resistance: 56,300, 56,500, 56,900

Key Support: 55,700, 55,500, 55,300

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures at current levels and add on dips near 55,700 and 55,500, with a stop-loss at 55,000, targeting 56,900, 57,200, and 57,600.

Amruta Shinde, Technical & Derivative Analyst at Choice Broking

The daily chart shows a bullish candlestick with a small lower wick, signalling underlying strength in the Bank Nifty. Immediate support is at 56,100, and a breach could drive the index toward 56,000–55,890.

On the upside, resistance lies at 56,500, with a stronger hurdle at 56,700–57,000. A decisive break above this range could trigger fresh buying. A buy-on-dips strategy is advisable, while maintaining strict stop-losses amid volatility.

Key Resistance: 56,500, 56,700

Key Support: 56,100, 55,890

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips near 56,100, with a stop-loss of 56,000 on a closing basis, for a target of 56,700–57,000.