Technical View: Selling pressure to intensify if Nifty breaks Tuesday’s low; Bank Nifty snaps 4-day gains but holds support trendline

Nifty outlook for October 15

The Nifty 50 has seen consolidation for another session, falling by a third of a percent on October 14. The index tested the midline of the Bollinger Bands (25,060), which was also its low for the day. If the index decisively breaks this level, the bears may tighten their hold on the market. Crucial support is placed at 24,950 (the 50-day EMA). On the higher side, the 25,300-25,350 zone is expected to act as a resistance, according to experts.

The Nifty 50 opened higher at 25,278 and hit an intraday high of 25,310 but could not sustain those gains for long. The index erased its gains as the day progressed and remained under pressure for the remainder of the session, closing at 25,146, down by 82 points.

The index formed a bearish candlestick with upper and lower shadows on the daily charts, engulfing the previous day's green candle, which is not a good indication.

"This signals some more consolidation or minor weakness in the short term," said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.

According to him, the daily 10 and 20-period EMAs acted as support for the market on Tuesday. The next lower supports to watch are around the 25,000-24,900 levels, he added.

The weekly options data suggested that the Nifty is still expected to trade within the 25,000-25,500 range, with the broader range being 24,500-25,500.

The 25,200 strike holds the maximum Call open interest, followed by the 25,500 and 25,300 strikes. The maximum Call writing is at the 25,200, 25,300, and 25,400 strikes, while the maximum Put open interest is at the 25,000 strike, followed by the 25,200 and 24,500 strikes. The maximum Put writing is at the 25,100, 24,500, and 24,400 strikes.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty snapped its four-day winning streak, declining by 129 points to 56,496 and forming a small bearish candle with minor upper and long lower shadows on the daily timeframe. The index took support at the falling trendline and recouped 266 points from the day’s low of 56,230.

Technically, the index continues to trade above its crucial moving averages, indicating underlying resilience. The daily RSI remains in the bullish zone, suggesting that momentum is still intact, and the index may attempt to stabilize or rebound in the near term.

"The zone of 56,800-56,900 will act as a crucial hurdle for the index. Any sustainable move above the level of 56,900 will lead to a sharp upside rally up to the 57,500 level, while, on the downside, the 56,300-56,200 zone will act as important support for the index," said Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities.

Meanwhile, the fear index, India VIX, extended its gains and closed at 11.16 (the highest closing level since September 29), up 1.34 percent, signalling further discomfort for the bulls.

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