Bihar Election 2025 Updates: Young, unemployed voters prefer MGB, older electors want NDA, predicts Axis My India exit poll

Today's Chanakya's exit poll predicted a mega win for the ruling NDA bloc. The JDU-led alliance is likely to win 160 seats with a margin of error for 12 seats. RJD-led Mahagathbandhan is set to secure 77 seats with a margin of error of 12 seats.

Axis My India's exit poll predicted 17-21 seats for Congress in Bihar Assembly elections. The party had won 8 seats in the previous election. VIP is set to secure 3-5 seats, Left parties to win a total of 10-14 seats, while Chirag Parswan's LJP may take home 11-16 seats. Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party is likely to win 0-2 seats.

Axis My India predicted a clear edge for the ruling NDA bloc with seats in the range of 121 to 141 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan is likely to fall behind at 98 to 118 seats. RJD is set to retain its tag as the single-largest party in the state with 67-76 seats, with JDU and BJP following at 56-62 and 50-56 seats respectively.

RJD chief Tejashwi Yadav's promise of jobs may have worked among the young and unemployed voters as the opposition alliance holds an edge over the ruling NDA bloc with a lead of 7-9 percent in the age group of 18-29.

Voters aged 30 and above prefer the ruling NDA bloc more over the Mahagathbandhan.

The JDU-led ruling alliance is set to consolidate its massive support among the upper caste electors with NDA likely to secure 60 percent or more among Brahmin, Bhumihar and Rajput voters

India cannot believe the exit poll results and field reports from Congress workers in Bihar where Assembly polls were held suggest that the wind is blowing in favour of the 'Mahagathbandhan', AICC general secretary K C Venugopal said here on Wednesday.

The exit polls conducted by various organisations on Tuesday predicted a return of the NDA government in the state, a poor show for the opposition Mahagathbandhan (INDIA bloc in local parlance), and a disappointing performance for former poll strategist Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj.

With the dust having settled on an acrimonious campaign, followed by a record turn-out in Bihar assembly polls, all eyes are now on the counting of votes scheduled on Friday.

The outcome will make it clear whether Nitish Kumar, the JD(U) president who is also the longest serving Chief Minister, enjoys enough public support to enjoy a record fifth consecutive tenure or the people have opted for a change.

Exit polls have been nearly unanimous in predicting a clean sweep for the NDA, of which the JD(U) is a part, much to the annoyance of the opposition INDIA bloc.

The BJP on Wednesday said the high turnout of women voters in the Bihar Assembly polls was a "historic transformation" and claimed that they voted "decisively" in favour of the NDA for development and good governance.

"Since 2014, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, pro-incumbency for good governance has become a new habit in Indian democracy, a trend unseen before," the party said.

Sharing provisional data on Tuesday, the Election Commission said Bihar registered an overall voter turnout of 66.91 per cent, its highest since the first state polls in 1951.

The state also recorded the highest female voter turnout in its history, it added.

The ruling NDA bloc is set to record massive gains among weaker groups, including SCs, Nishads, Mallahs, EBCs, Paswans, Telis, Kurmis, among others. The INDIA bloc alliance will likely have an edge among Ravidas voters.

The NDA bloc is likely to have an edge in terms of total vote share, but RJD's Tejashwi Yadav is preferred by 34% electors as their next CM, Axis My India exit poll predicted. Sitting CM Nitish Kumar came in at the second spot with 22 percent share.

Bihar Elections 2025: Reacting to Exit Polls, Bihar Minister Nitin Nabin (@NitinNabin) said, “Let Tejashwi refuse to accept the exit polls, at least that way, he might get a good night’s sleep. He can enjoy his dreams for another 48 hours, but after that, all those dreams will be shattered.”

Axis My India's exit poll on November 12 predicted a 43% vote share for the ruling NDA bloc in Bihar, over 41 percent for the Mahagathbandhan. The Nitish Kumar-led alliance secured bigger chunk of votes of several key groups, including SC, OBCs, EBCs, STs and General (upper caste). MGB led the vote share among Yadavs and Muslims.

Bihar: On exit polls, Independent MP from Purnea, Pappu Yadav, says, "After 5:30, these people decided in half an hour whose government would be formed? ... First, the vote percentage dropped to zero after 69 lakh... And about women, you are saying that in every assembly we gave 10,000 women Rs. 10,000 each... You will see what the exact polls will be... Now, by stealing votes, you will misuse your power again; that is a completely different matter. You play dirty games because you have power... This time, the new generation wants change. You should understand this."

BJP candidate from Danapur, Ram Kripal Yadav on exit polls says,"Tejashwi Yadav has lost and he is not accepting his defeat... Sometimes he raises questions about the Election Commission and the exit poll. The people's mandate should be accepted. Exit polls are never false..."

Bihar Election 2025 Live Updates: Bihar has voted for change, says Akhilesh Yadav

On Bihar exit polls, Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav says, "The people in Bihar have voted for change; Tejashwi Yadav is going to become the chief minister. To stop Mahagathbandhan, the BJP is deliberately getting exit polls done by their own people."

Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader and Mahagathbandhan's Chief Ministerial face Tejashwi Yadav alleged on Wednesday that there might be attempts to manipulate the Bihar assembly elections results by the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) ahead of the counting set to take place on November 14.

According to Yadav, the NDA will "make all attempts to slow down the vote count" and try to "strike fear among people" while trying to "murder democracy." He further criticised the Centre for the Delhi blast which took place recently near Red Fort, killing atleast 8.

"This time they (NDA) will make all attempts to slow down the counting of votes. They will create fear in District Headquarters. They will not do anything where a bomb blast takes place. But they will take out a military flag march across all districts in Bihar to murder democracy so that there is fear among the people," Yadav told reporters during a press conference here.

As Bihar braces for the counting of votes on November 14, political fervour has already begun to surge in the state capital, with party workers from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) preparing for celebrations in anticipation of a favourable outcome.

In Patna, BJP workers have come together to prepare laddoos after several exit polls predicted the NDA's win in the polls.

They say that around 501 kilograms of laddoos are being prepared ahead of the counting day.

Bihar BJP President Dilip Jaiswal expressed confidence that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will form the government again in the state, citing the public's faith in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's "guarantees" and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's "development model".

"Under the leadership of PM Modi and Bihar CM Nitish Kumar, Bihar has progressed a lot," Jaiswal told ANI, reacting to exit polls that predict a favourable outcome for the NDA. "The public has voted in favour of PM Modi's guarantees and the development model of Bihar CM Nitish Kumar. The public has faith that the future of Bihar is safe in the hands of PM Modi and Bihar CM Nitish Kumar."

Jaiswal also criticised the opposition Mahagathbandhan, highlighting the alleged strained relations between the RJD and Congress.

Exit polls are nothing, said RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav, expressing optimism over INDIA bloc's win in the state. He further said that such forecasts were made at the "direction" of the BJP's top leadership.

“The INDIA bloc is going to form the government with a thumping majority. High turnout of voters in the Bihar assembly polls indicates that people want a change in government. They voted in favour of 'Mahagathbandhan' (INDIA bloc in local parlance)...We will take the oath on Nov 18”, the RJD leader claimed, as per PTI.

The exit polls conducted by various organisations on Tuesday predicted a return of the NDA government in the state, a poor show for the opposition 'Mahagathbandhan' (INDIA bloc in local parlance), and a disappointing performance for former poll strategist Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party.

The ongoing Bihar Assembly polls has emerged as the most gender-inclusive election in India's history, said BJP national spokesperson Pradeep Bhandari on X. He said that for the first time since Independence, women have outvoted men by a significant margin across both phases of polling, reflecting a remarkable transformation in Bihar's democratic participation.

"Women in Bihar have voted decisively. Phase 1: Female turnout 7.48% higher than male turnout. Phase 2: Female turnout 9.93% higher than male turnout. Compare this to Bihar's first Assembly election (1952) -- when female turnout was lower than male turnout by 6%. The transformation is historic. The "M Factor", Mahila Factor, believing in development and governance (Sushasan) has emerged as the real swing factor. Political pundits must stop viewing Bihar's polity only through the lens of caste. The new political grammar of Bihar is gender plus governance. Since 2014, under PM Narendra Modi, pro-incumbency for good governance has become a new habit in Indian democracy, a trend unseen before," Bhandari said.

Pradeep Gupta, head of Axis My India, said in a post on X, that Axis My India exit poll for Bihar elections will be released on November 12, 2025 from 5:30 pm onwards.

After several exit polls predicted a strong performance for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the Bihar assembly elections, RJD leader and Mahagathbandhan's CM face Tejashwi Yadav alleged that they were conducted at the direction of BJP's top leadership.

Post the conclusion of the second and last phase of the Bihar assembly elections, multiple exit polls released predicted that the ruling NDA is poised to form the government again in Bihar, while forecasting that the Mahagathbandhan will fall short of the majority mark in the 243-member State Assembly.

While most of the projections for the Bihar Assembly polls were released on Tuesday,  Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya will put out their projections later in the day today.

Counting of votes for the 243-member Bihar Assembly -- which voted in two phases on November 6 and 11 -- will take place on November 14.

Several exit polls released on Tuesday have predicted a landslide victory for the BJP-JD(U) alliance in Bihar. Here's a look at the various predictions --

Congress leader Supriya Shrinate on Wednesday exuded confidence in Mahagathbandhan's victory in the recently concluded Bihar polls, stating that the people of the state will "teach a lesson" to the ruling NDA for manipulating their voting rights.

"I will not speak on the exit polls. We will discuss it when the results are out. However, Bihar will teach a lesson because its right to vote has been manipulated... I am sure that the Mahagathbandhan will form the government," she said.

Reactions started coming in from all corners soon after exit poll predictions showed a clear win for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar. Here's who said what --

-Bihar deputy chief minister and BJP candidate from Lakhisarai Assembly seat, Vijay Kumar Sinha, said that people have expressed faith in the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. He predicted that the NDA would surpass exit poll expectations when the actual results are declared. "This is an exit poll; we will go even higher in the exact poll," he remarked.

-Janata Dal (United) asserted that the people here in state have given the NDA a "historic mandate" in the two-phased polls. In a post on X, JD(U) said, "Bihar has given the NDA a historic mandate. Now many people will blame the EVMs. They will come up with new-fangled excuses for the defeat."

-BJP leader Syed Shahnawaz Hussain said that exit polls indicated that Congress MP Rahul Gandhi has "completely flopped" and people have voted for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, and development.

-Congress MP Tariq Anwar dismissed the predictions as speculative, saying they cannot be considered accurate. Speaking to ANI, Anwar said, "Exit Polls are not accurate. They are only a speculation. It indicates what might happen. It would not be right to think that they are accurate."

-Talking to PTI Video, RJD leader and Buxar Lok Sabha MP Sudhakar Singh said, “The high voter turnout is always considered as people’s mandate against the ruling dispensation. We must wait for the final result. I am confident that the 'Mahagathbandhan' will comfortably form the government in Bihar. The exit polls are far from reality".

(ANI, PTI inputs)

As per News18’s Mega Exit Poll, the NDA is on course to secure 145 seats in Bihar, leaving the Mahagathbandhan far behind at 90. A closer analysis suggests that Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) will anchor the alliance’s triumph, winning around 65 seats to emerge as the state’s largest political force. In the 2020 Assembly polls, JD(U) had bagged just 43 seats.

The survey predicts 0-5 seats for Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party -- which was envisioned by the poll strategist-turned-politician as a third alternative for the state.

Bihar Legislative Assembly elections concluded with a historic highest ever voter turnout of 66.91 per cent, the Election Commission of India (ECI) informed on Tuesday. "This is the highest voter turnout recorded in the state since 1951. Turnout among male voters is 62.8% and amongst female voters it is 71.6%," it said in a statement.

Exit polls on Tuesday signalled a resounding return of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar, with pollsters unanimously forecasting a landslide for the BJP-JD(U) combine and a steep decline for the Tejashwi Yadav-led Mahagathbandhan.

The aggregate of 10 exit polls puts the NDA’s seat count at 148 in the 243-member House -- a notable jump from 125 in 2020 -- while the opposition bloc is projected to fall to just 90 seats from its previous 110.