Trading Plan: Will Nifty 50 stay above 25,000, Bank Nifty hold 55,700 amid global sell-off?

Nifty 50 Trading Plan for October 13

After a strong rally in the past two weeks, the Nifty 50 index may see some consolidation before marching toward 25,400–25,450, the crucial zone for its further upward journey. Even the subdued global sentiment following the US-China tariff war hints at some weakness in the immediate term. Hence, the crucial support is placed at 25,000–24,900, as decisively falling below this level can bring bears back onto the street. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty is in better shape than the benchmark Nifty 50, but in the event of a correction, it may take support at 56,000–57,000. A sharp fall cannot be ruled out below this range, but sustaining above it can gradually drive the index toward 57,000 and a record high, according to experts.

On October 10, the Nifty 50 soared 104 points to 25,285, while the Bank Nifty jumped 418 points to 56,610. The market breadth was dominated by bulls, as about 1,708 shares advanced compared to 1,109 declining shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Osho Krishan, Chief Manager - Technical & Derivative Research at Angel One

The Nifty 50 index surged 1.57 percent during the last week. From a technical standpoint, the index has decisively moved above its 20 DEMA, indicating a sense of stability and a positive outlook in the near term. Also, with the weekly developments, the index is now placed above the 78.60% Fibonacci retracement of the recent fall, adding to the bullish quotient.

On the levels front, the range of 25,150–25,100 presents a solid foundation that can effectively absorb any minor fluctuations. The critical support level at 25,000 is expected to act as a sacrosanct support zone.

On the flip side, with ongoing momentum, the recent swing high of 25,450 is within reach, coinciding with a sloping trendline adjoining the lifetime high (26,277) and this year’s high (25,669). Any decisive breakout above this zone is likely to trigger fresh momentum and is expected to pave the way for reclaiming the calendar year high of 25,669 in the near term.

Key Resistance: 25,450, 25,670

Key Support: 25,150, 25,000

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips around 25,150, with a stop-loss of 24,950, and book profits near 25,500.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

On the weekly chart, the Nifty 50 formed a long bullish candle with a higher high–low structure, closing above the previous week’s high — a clear sign of strengthening positive momentum. The index is now approaching crucial resistance near 25,500, where a downward-sloping trendline from the all-time high is placed.

A decisive close above this level could open the door to 26,277, the all-time high. Immediate support lies at 25,058 (20-day SMA), with major support around 24,350. A sustained move above 25,500 could drive the index towards 25,700–26,000, while a break below 25,150 may trigger declines towards 25,000–24,800.

For the week, Nifty is expected to trade in a 26,000–24,800 range with a positive outlook. The weekly strength indicator RSI is above its respective reference lines, indicating a positive bias.

Key Resistance: 25,350, 25,450

Key Support: 25,100, 24,900

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures around 25,100 with a stop-loss of 24,950, targeting 25,350–25,400.

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments

On the daily chart, the index paused briefly for two sessions before resuming its upmove on Thursday, confirming a follow-through rally on Friday. With this momentum, we expect the current leg to test the swing high of 25,448 in the coming sessions.

FII positioning remains extremely short, which adds fuel for a potential short-covering-driven rally. This should provide a solid cushion for buyers on any intraday dips.

On the downside, immediate support lies around the 10- and 20-day EMA zone at 25,000–25,050, which should be viewed as a buy-on-dip opportunity on signs of bullish reversal. The daily EMAs are now positively aligned, acting as a propeller for the ongoing bullish momentum and signaling that bulls are firmly back in control.

Key Resistance: 25,448, 25,600

Key Support: 25,050, 25,000

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips to 25,050–25,000, with a stop-loss of 24,950, targeting 25,448.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Osho Krishan, Chief Manager - Technical & Derivative Research at Angel One

Bank Nifty wrapped up a productive week of trade, gaining 1.84 percent. The technical structure of the rate-sensitive index turned decisively in favour of buyers last week, as prices broke convincingly above the crucial supply zone of 56,100–55,800. This bullish momentum is further reinforced by a bullish crossover of the 20 DEMA above the 50 DEMA, indicating that momentum remains firmly aligned with the bulls, at least in the immediate term.

Additionally, the formation of a runaway gap above the resistance band highlights that buyers currently have a strong grip over price action. Going forward, prices are expected to swiftly retest the recent swing highs near the 57,600 zone, where adopting a strategy to buy on dips towards support levels could prove rewarding.

In terms of levels, immediate support is placed in the 56,300–56,100 band, while the sacrosanct support lies around the 55,700–55,500 zone. On the upside, the index is now approaching the 78.6% retracement of the previous downswing, with strong resistance anticipated in the 56,900–57,300 band.

Key Resistance: 56,900, 57,300

Key Support: 56,300, 55,700

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures around 56,300, with a stop-loss of 55,700, for a potential target of 57,000–57,300.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

On the weekly chart, Bank Nifty formed a strong bullish candle with a higher high–low compared to the previous week and closed above the 20-week SMA (55,695), reinforcing a bullish setup. Strong follow-up buying post the downward-sloping trendline breakout has pushed the index towards its all-time high of 57,628.

Key support levels are placed at 55,600, with major supports at 54,300. A sustained move above 57,000 could trigger buying towards 57,400–57,700, while a break below 56,350 may lead to a decline towards 56,000–55,600.

For the week, we expect Bank Nifty to trade in the 57,700–55,600 range with a positive bias. The weekly RSI has crossed above its reference line, reinforcing a positive momentum shift, while the Stochastic indicator remains in a bullish trajectory.

Key Resistance: 56,800, 57,000

Key Support: 56,300, 56,150

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures around 56,400 with a stop-loss of 56,200, targeting 56,700–56,850.

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments

Bank Nifty closed the week on a powerful bullish note, breaking above the weekly swing high of 56,156 with strong volumes and forming a bullish candle accompanied by a weekly gap — a clear confirmation of bullish dominance. This breakout above 56,156 has effectively opened the floodgates for a rally towards 57,500 in the near term.

Any pullback into the 56,156 zone should be viewed as a buying opportunity, as this level now transitions from resistance to strong support. Supporting this bullish setup, the monthly VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price), along with the 10- and 20-day EMAs, are all clustered in the 55,900–56,156 range, reinforcing it as a rock-solid demand zone.

With structure, momentum, and volume all aligned, Bank Nifty looks poised to extend its rally further, with dips likely to be aggressively bought.

Key Resistance: 57,500, 58,100

Key Support: 56,300, 56,156

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips to 56,156–56,000, with a stop-loss below 56,000, targeting 57,500–58,100.