Why a fierce bypoll clash in UP is keeping Akhilesh Yadav on edge

SP's Tej Pratap Yadav files his nomination papers for the Karhal assembly constituency by-election (PTI)

The Karhal assembly seat in Uttar Pradesh’s Mainpuri district has become a fierce political battleground, with the by-election turning into a significant test for the Samajwadi Party (SP) and its candidate Tej Pratap Yadav.

The grandson of the late SP patriarch, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Tej Pratap, is defending a seat that has long been a Yadav stronghold for the SP. This election holds particular importance as it represents a litmus test for SP's influence in the region following Akhilesh Yadav's shift to national politics.

The Karhal seat, a bastion of the SP, was vacated by SP chief Akhilesh Yadav after his election as the MP for Kannauj in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Akhilesh had previously secured Karhal by defeating Union Minister SP Singh Baghel of the BJP in the 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly elections.

Adding intrigue to the by-election is the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) decision to field Anujesh Yadav, brother-in-law of SP MP Dharmendra Yadav, making this contest a “Yadav vs. Yadav” face-off.

Anujesh is regarded as a “rebel” within the influential Yadav family and has been a member of the BJP for the past decade. Confident in his ability to sway Yadav voters, Anujesh claims the "lotus will bloom" in Karhal for the first time in two decades, capitalizing on the BJP’s “double engine” narrative of development under Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.

“The voters are now more aware of the benefits of BJP's double-engine governance,” Anujesh said. “The Shakya community and others are eager to join this bandwagon, envisioning a future with Modi and Yogi at the helm.”

A historic SP stronghold facing BJP’s challenge

Karhal, a constituency with around 3.75 lakh voters, has a majority of Yadavs (approximately 1.3 lakh). Other significant groups include Scheduled Castes (60,000), Shakyas (50,000), Thakurs (30,000), Pal/Bhagel (30,000), Muslims (25,000), Lodhis (20,000), Brahmins (20,000), and Banias (15,000). The SP has historically dominated this seat, winning six out of the last seven elections from 1993 to 2022. BJP’s sole victory here came in 2002, with Sobran Singh Yadav, who later joined the SP.

With BJP attempting to breach this stronghold, the stakes are high for SP to retain its grip. Local journalist Neeraj Mehre explains, “BJP is counting on its 2002 win as a precedent. However, the Yadav community still resonates with the legacy of the Mulayam family for their contributions to the region.”

Akhilesh Yadav, alongside prominent SP leaders including his wife Dimple Yadav, Shivpal Singh Yadav, and Dharmendra Yadav, has been spearheading the campaign for Tej Pratap. Dimple, who represents the Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat, has been actively involved, organizing meetings and corner sessions to galvanize support. Her presence on the campaign trail underscores the SP family's unity amidst BJP’s attempt to weaken the Yadav vote base.

Tej Pratap, who previously held the Karhal seat from 2014 to 2019, shares familial ties with Bihar’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Lalu Prasad Yadav, being married to Lalu's daughter Raj Lakshmi. Initially considered for the Kannauj Lok Sabha seat, Tej Pratap was later replaced by Akhilesh, reflecting SP's trust in his capabilities to retain Karhal.

BJP banks on development narrative and Yadav votes

The BJP’s district president, Rahul Chaturvedi, expressed optimism, stating, “Anujesh Yadav’s decade-long association with BJP will resonate with voters. Under Yogi and Modi’s leadership, Karhal has seen peace and development, and we anticipate a victory by a significant margin.”

The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has fielded a Shakya candidate, which could potentially divide the SP’s vote bank among the backward and Dalit communities. Additionally, Chandrashekhar Azad’s entry with a Dalit candidate may further impact the SP’s support base, particularly among the Scheduled Castes.

Despite BJP’s efforts to gain ground in Karhal, the SP remains optimistic about Tej Pratap’s prospects. A local SP leader said, “People here have a deep-rooted respect for Netaji’s (Mulayam Singh Yadav) legacy. BJP makes big promises, but the farmers and youth are disillusioned. Tej Pratap will emerge victorious.”

The by-election on November 20 is expected to be a high-stakes clash, with the BJP intensifying its campaign efforts through senior leaders like Deputy Chief Ministers Brajesh Pathak and Keshav Prasad Maurya. However, SP’s cohesive front and the Yadav family’s influence may prove formidable.