Unlock 1.0: A critical moment in fight against COVID-19 as India 'reopens'

The first phase of 'Unlock India' begins as the government hopes to breathe some life into a near-morbid economy. Malls, restaurants, hotels and places of worship reopen selectively across the country beginning June 8.

But that the ease in lockdown restrictions comes immediately after the country registered its highest single-day hike in cases of COVID-19—also the fifth consecutive day of a new high—also underlines the risk of letting people move, shop, dine and worship with relative freedom.

The unlock could turn out to be a toss-up between two extreme possibilities - an economic, or, a medical disaster.

On the one hand, are the stark economic realities. Unemployment rate has spiked to 27.11 percent in the week ending May 3, from under 7 percent in March. The GDP grew 3.1 percent during January-March this year, the slowest in 44 quarters, and the Purchasing Manager's Index declined to 30.8 in May, a little better than April but still far away from 50, which signals expansion. Anything below 50, reflects contraction.

Moody's downgrade apart, many economists and rating agencies expect India's GDP to contract in 2020, and that could exacerbate an humanitarian crisis reflected in the plight of the migrant labour.

Industrialists have in private spoken about the ill-effect of the lockdown that came into effect from March 25. That meant companies lost out on the last week of the financial year, and that alone was enough for most of them to go into red in the fourth quarter. This included some of the biggest companies across sectors - IndiGo, Vedanta, DLF and Titan. The first quarter of the present financial year is expected to be a near-washout.

Rajiv Bajaj, Managing Director of Bajaj Auto, probably said aloud what was in the minds of many. Bajaj called the lockdown draconian. "The wrong curve has been flattened ... the GDP curve has been flattened," he said.

But that the COVID-19 infection curve is not showing any signs of flattening even after two months of the lockdown, is a problem that governments at the Centre, and the states, are struggling to come to terms with.

On June 7, the country added 9,971 new infections, taking the total tally to 2,46,628. The number of those reported to be dead stood at 6,929. India has now steadily risen to the fifth rank on the list of countries most hit by the virus. The country have even surpassed Italy and Spain.

Increasing numbers have already exposed the frail healthcare infrastructure in the country, with scores of people taking to social media platforms to complain about hospitals refusing to admit those infected.

That's why the question staring at everyone is this: Unlock 1.0 may ease some of the economic distress, but will it result in a medical catastrophe?

Critical moment

The timing of Unlock 1.0, couldn't have been more critical. And that's why a lot, including decisions on further easing or reinstating restrictions, will depend on how this first phase pans out.

The Centre has released an exhaustive list of SoPs. States have their own guidelines. Not all are opening up fully. Maharashtra has kept places of worship closed. In Delhi, hotels will remain closed and could be converted into hospitals. And in Kerala, while weddings can be held at the Guruvayoor Temple, many places of worship have decided to remain closed at least till the end of June.

Few expect consumers to throng brand outlets or queue up in front of quick service restaurants from Monday morning, but if the re-opening gets off without too many hiccups, it will surely boost sentiment.

Based on the response and feedback from states, the government will take a call on the second phase, in which schools, colleges and training institutes are to open. The third phase will see international flights resuming, and theatres, gymnasiums and metro services opening their gates and doors.

However, as critical as it is, is the timing right?

Spain started easing the lockdown in May, four months after it first reported COVID-19 cases. By then, it had already flattened the curve of new infections. China was beginning to flatten the curve in three months.

In comparison, the decision makers in India, which had its first COVID-19 infection in January, seem to have a much more complicated situation in their hands. And the decisions they take will have political ramifications. Bihar goes to poll later this year. West Bengal awaits in 2021.

They will be hoping to get some answers from Unlock 1.0, or will it throw up more questions?