Apple's iPhone shipments will surge 20% in India, outpacing market in 2024, say experts

CEO Tim Cook said in an earnings call that he is “very, very pleased” about how Apple is doing in India.

Apple is set to sustain its growth momentum in India, outpacing the market as iPhone shipments are projected to increase by over 20 percent in 2024 on the back of the premiumisation wave, domestic manufacturing support and strong distribution, experts said.

Apple set revenue records in India in the quarter that ended March 31, with double-digit growth on the back of strong iPhone sales, even as the company’s overall revenue globally declined 4 percent during the same time.

“In India, revenues grew to record levels due to a better product mix and channel expansion. We believe Apple will continue to grow faster than the market and might grow over 20 percent in 2024,” Tarun Pathak, research director at market tracker Counterpoint, told Moneycontrol.

Pathak said that Apple is “peaking at the right time” and catalysing the premiumisation trend in its favour through its broad iPhone portfolio and financing offers.

Apple shipped around 10 million iPhones in India in 2023 and cornered 7 percent market share, according to Counterpoint.

Shipments refer to the number of devices that manufacturers send out to retailers or directly to customers within a specific period, typically quarterly or annually. These shipments represent the volume of smartphones produced by manufacturers and sent out for distribution and sale.

With over 850 million mobile phone users and the potential to surpass a billion smartphone users within the next five years, India is poised to become Apple's third-largest market in the next 2-3 years.

“This gives a significant opportunity for Apple in terms of the huge potential market outside China and the US in the coming years. India is one of the big and also high-growth smartphone markets. Being mobile-first makes it even more important for players such as Apple,” said Pathak.

Prabhu Ram, Head - Industry Intelligence Group, CMR, echoed Pathak’s views and said that given the headwinds Apple faces in the EU and China, India will be a key growth driver over the next decade.

“Apple's enduring brand resilience, coupled with its ramped-up 'Make-in-India' production and strong online and offline retail presence, is making the brand accessible to more young Indian consumers,” Ram said.

As per CyberMedia Research (CMR) estimates, the latest-generation iPhone 15 series (62 percent) and the older-generation iPhone 14 series (30 percent) have significantly contributed to Apple's presence in India during the quarter.

Navkendar Singh, AVP, of Client Devices Research, IDC India said that Apple had a record January-March quarter of 2024 for iPhones with a growth of 19-20 percent year-on-year. "More than half of these shipments came from iPhone 14 and 15 models. Discounts, special deals on etailer platforms and financing options were the key drivers for iPhones, beyond the festive season," he said.

In India, the premium market has doubled in just two years and Apple has been the big beneficiary with its market share also tripling from the 2 percent level before the pandemic to more than 6 percent at the end of 2023 in terms of volume share, said Pathak.

“Apple ... can not only sell millions of iPhones every year but also manufacture them here and also cross-sell other devices and services. The upfront cost of the phones has come down as well due to no-cost EMIs, financing offers and trade-ins,” Pathak added.

Apple also had a good quarter in PCs however unlike the competition, they haven't been as aggressive in pushing stock in the channel. In tablets, iPads continue to lead in the premium price bands. "However, their base iPad variants are facing stiff competition from the likes of Samsung, Xiaomi, and OnePlus tablet models," Singh said.

During the company’s earnings calls on May 3, Apple Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook said that India is a major focus for Apple. “We did grow strong double-digit (in India). And so we were very, very pleased about it. It was a new March quarter revenue record for us,” he said.

Developers, market, operations: Apple CEO Tim Cook on being excited about “the whole thing” in India

Cook said that Apple is making iPhones in India to stay competitive, highlighting that the company’s growth is linked to its operational expansion in India. “In terms of the operational side or supply chain side, we are producing there. From a pragmatic point of view, you need to produce there to be competitive,” he said.

Apple sees an enormous opportunity in India after it opened two stores in Mumbai and New Delhi. It is continuing to expand its channels, and also working on the developer ecosystem as well.

“And we've been very pleased that there is a rapidly growing base of developers there. And so, we're working all of the entire ecosystem from developer to the market to operations, the whole thing. And I just — I could not be more excited and enthusiastic about it,” Cook added.