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Last Updated : Jan 31, 2019 10:49 AM IST | Source: Moneycontrol.com

NDA to fall short of majority mark, BJP may make inroads in Odisha and West Bengal: Opinion Poll

The United Progressive Alliance (UPA), led by Congress, is predicted to win 147 seats while Others, comprising regional and national parties not aligned with either of the alliances, set to win 144 seats

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An opinion poll conducted by news channel Times Now and survey agency VMR has predicted 252 seats for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls.

The current Lok Sabha has 543 seats, of which the NDA, led by Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had won 336 seats during the 2014 national elections. Of the 336 seats, the BJP had won 282 seats alone, 10 more than the majority mark of 272.

The United Progressive Alliance (UPA), led by Congress, is predicted to win 147 seats while Others, comprising regional and national parties not aligned with either of the alliances, set to win 144 seats.

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Significant gains for BJP in Odisha and West Bengal 

According to the survey, the BJP is all set to make major gains in Odisha and West Bengal, where the saffron party has trained its focus in the recent months. 

The survey predicts that the BJP would win nine seats in West Bengal, an increase from two during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. While the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC), according to the survey, will sweep Bengal, winning 32 of the 42 seats, Congress and the Left would be decimated.

In case of Odisha, where the BJP held its national executive meeting in 2017, the survey predicts that the party will win 13 seats, a significant increase from its dismal 2014 performance when it won only one Lok Sabha seat. The ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD), led by long-time supremo Naveen Patnaik, would manage to win eight seats, a drop from its 2014 tally when it won 20 out of the 21 Parliamentary seats in the state. Odisha's assembly elections are also scheduled to take place along with the national elections in 2019.

Painting the West saffron

In Maharashtra, which has the second highest number of Lok Sabha seats at 48, the BJP-Shiv Sena combine is predicted to win 43 seats as against the 42 it won in 2014. The Congress-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) combine's tally is set to down from six to five, according to the survey. Multiple reports have stated that the BJP-ruled Maharashtra, along with Haryana and Jharkhand, might move for simultaneous polls.

According to the survey, in Gujarat, the BJP is likely to gain 24 out of its 26 seats, the Congress winning the remaining two.

In Goa, Congress and BJP would win one seat each, the survey has predicted. The BJP had won both the seats in 2014.

Grand Alliance magic in Hindi heartland

The survey has predicted a huge defeat for the BJP and its allies in Uttar Pradesh, the state with the highest number of Lok Sabha seats at 80. The NDA in UP is likely to slump to 27 seats, as against the 73 it won in 2014.

Numbers presented by the survey suggest that the BJP's loss is the Samajwadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party (SP-BSP) Mahagathbandhan's gain, with the combine predicted to win 51 seats. Congress, which was kept out of the grand alliance in UP, will manage to cobble up only two seats, the survey has predicted.

Also Read: How an SP-BSP alliance can impact the BJP arithmetic in Uttar Pradesh

In states like Jharkhand and Bihar, BJP and its allies might face stiff opposition and lose seats. According to the survey, the BJP combine's tally is likely to go down from 30 to 25 in Bihar. The Mahagathbandhan, led by Congress and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), will increase its tally from 10 to 15, the survey has predicted.

Meanwhile, in Jharkhand, the BJP will face significant losses, with a fall from 12 seats in 2014 to six in the upcoming elections and Congress increasing its tally from two to eight.

In Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, which were BJP-ruled states until the recent assembly polls brought Congress to power in all three, the saffron surge is predicted to be halted. While BJP is likely to win 23 of the 29 seats in Madhya Pradesh— four less than what it won in 2014,  the party's seat share would decline in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.

In Rajasthan, BJP's tally will come down to 17 with Congress winning the remaining eight. The survey predicts that of the 11 Lok Sabha seats in Chhattisgarh, Congress will win six, and the BJP five, a rise from one and a fall from 10 respectively in 2014.

NDA sweep in Northeast despite Citizenship Bill 

According to the survey, the Citizenship Amendment Bill will help in consolidating votes for the BJP instead of working the other way round, as was being predicted.

Of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in Assam, the survey reveals that the BJP is likely to win eight seats, one more than its share during the last general elections. According to the survey, the Congress is likely to retain its three seats while the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) might win two.

The survey predicts that the NDA is all set to sweep the rest of Northeast, winning nine of the region's 11 Lok Sabha seats.

Also read: EXPLAINER | Citizenship (Amendment) Bill’s key question: Why are some illegal immigrants more equal than others?

All going south for the NDA in South 

In the South, where the BJP is hoping to make inroads, the survey predicts a bittersweet result for the saffron party and its allies, with more bitter than sweet in the offing.

In Tamil Nadu, the UPA, comprising Congress and Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) is predicted to sweep by winning 35 of the 39 Lok Sabha seats. The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) is predicted to win four seats while the BJP is unlikely to win any seat. This is in stark contrast to 2014 when the AIADMK had won 37 seats while the BJP had won one.

In Kerala, where the BJP will manage to win one seat and open its account in the state, the United Democratic Front (UDF) is likely to win 16 seats and the Left Democratic Front (LDF) three. The UDF had won 12 seats during the 2014 elections while the LDF had won eight.

Of the 28 seats in Karnataka, the BJP and Congress are likely to win 14 each, according to the survey. That is a gain from 11 in 2014 for the Congress while a fall from 17 for the BJP.

The survey predicts that the ruling Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in Andhra Pradesh will be reduced to two of the 25 Lok Sabha seats with YSR Congress Party chief Jagan Mohan Reddy playing the kingmaker. In Telangana, meanwhile, the ruling Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) is likely to grab 10 seats, and Congress winning five.

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First Published on Jan 30, 2019 09:50 pm
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