The market is expected to remain in a consolidative, range-bound phase until the US, Iran, and Israel fully comply with a formal agreement.
After a stellar run, the Nifty 50 may see some consolidation before getting ready for the next leg of the upmove toward the 24,300–24,500 zone. However, 23,800 is likely to act as support in the upcoming sessions, experts said.
Rising further and sustaining above the 23,300–23,400–23,500 levels is crucial for the Nifty to move toward the psychological 24,000 zone. However, immediate support is seen at 22,700.
The Nifty 50 needs to maintain this upward trajectory over the next few sessions by surpassing and sustaining above the 23,400–23,500 zone. Until then, range-bound trading may continue, with immediate support at 22,700 followed by 22,500, according to experts.
Technical indicators are largely in favour of bears despite Thursday’s recovery. The index needs to reclaim and sustain above the 23,000 zone for an upmove toward 23,500; until then, consolidation and range-bound trading may continue, with immediate support at 22,500, followed by 22,200.
Overall, the setup remains bearish, although there has been some improvement in risk appetite. The Nifty 50 needs to extend its upward move and fill Monday’s bearish gap by surpassing the 22,800–22,850 zone to pave the way for an upmove toward 23,000–23,200.
After being oversold and with bears showing some signs of fatigue, the Nifty 50 may see a rebound towards 22,500–22,700; however, sustainability remains key going forward. As the index is close to a rising support trendline, a decisive break could trigger a fall towards 22,000–21,700, according to experts.
In the upcoming monthly derivatives contracts expiry session, the previous day’s lows near 22,600 and 22,450 are expected to be at risk; below these levels, the critical support stands at 22,300. If the index decisively breaks this level, a fall toward 21,700 cannot be ruled out.
Nifty needs to decisively surpass and sustain above 23,850 to negate the lower high–lower low formation for a bullish confirmation. Until then, consolidation and range-bound trading may continue, with immediate support placed in the 23,000–22,900 zone.
Follow-up buying is necessary to ensure some stability, which could help the Nifty 50 face immediate resistance at 23,000–23,100. However, in case of a reversal, the 22,700–22,600 zone can act as immediate support, according to experts.
Experts expect the Nifty 50 to rebound in the upcoming session, with an immediate hurdle at 23,000, followed by 23,200. However, the sustainability of any such rally will be key to watch, given the overall bearish setup.
According to experts, 22,900 is expected to be the immediate key support for Nifty in upcoming sessions, as a decisive break below it can drag the index down to 22,700. However, in case of a bounce, the 23,200–23,400 zone can act as resistance, followed by 23,500 as the key hurdle.
The immediate crucial support for Nifty 50 at 22,900 is key to watch in the next few sessions, as a decisive fall below this level can increase the possibility of a downward move toward 22,700–22,500.
If the Nifty breaks 23,600 (Wednesday's low), a decline toward the 23,500–23,350 zone is possible in the coming sessions. However, a further rally toward 24,000 is likely only if the index closes above and sustains the 23,800 resistance level, according to experts.
According to experts, the Nifty 50 needs to close and sustain above the 23,600–23,700 levels in the next few sessions for a move toward the 23,800–24,000 zone. Until then, consolidation may continue, with immediate support at 23,350, followed by 23,000 as a crucial support level.
Sustainability of uptrend will be the key going forward. Overall, the structure is still in favour of bears, and the focus remains on oil prices, with traders monitoring developments related to the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran.
According to experts, if the Nifty fails to take support at the psychological level of 23,000, a fall toward 22,700 cannot be ruled out in the upcoming sessions. However, 23,300–23,500 can act as immediate resistance.
Bears seem to be keeping tight control over the market in the upcoming sessions, possibly pushing the Nifty 50 below the immediate support of 23,500 and signalling a major risk for the 23,200–23,000 zone. Notably, 23,000 has the maximum Put open interest.
Momentum indicators maintained sell signals, while the narrowing gap between the 50- and 200-day EMAs increased the possibility of a move toward a death cross, signalling bears having the upper hand.
Strong follow-up buying interest is required for a further Nifty uptrend. If that comes true in the next few sessions, the 24,300–24,500 zone is expected to act as an immediate crucial resistance for the Nifty, followed by 24,700. On the downside, the immediate key support is placed at 24,000, according to experts.
The overall structure looks weak as the bearish chart pattern of lower highs and lower lows remains intact, while the VIX soared to a 21-month high. Momentum indicators being in the oversold zone signal the possibility of some bounce, but the sustainability of the upside bounce is the key to watch.
The spiking VIX, along with bearish technical and momentum indicators, has now put 24,300 — the previous week’s low — at major risk. In fact, experts feel the index is likely to break this support, and if that comes true and sustains below it, a correction towards 24,000-23,800 cannot be ruled out in the upcoming session.
The bears maintained the upper hand, given that the index is trading well below the 200-day EMA, the India VIX remains elevated (though it cooled), and bearish momentum persists.
If the Nifty 50 breaks and sustains well below 24,300 zone, a fall towards 24,050–24,000 cannot be ruled out. However, 24,600 is expected to act as the immediate key resistance, experts said.
Given the complete dominance of bears, driven by subdued momentum, weak technical indicators, and a sell-off across global markets, the previous day's low (24,603) and the August low (24,338) are expected to be at major risk in the upcoming session. Below these levels, bears may target 24,000, experts said.