If the Nifty breaks 23,600 (Wednesday's low), a decline toward the 23,500–23,350 zone is possible in the coming sessions. However, a further rally toward 24,000 is likely only if the index closes above and sustains the 23,800 resistance level, according to experts.
According to experts, the Nifty 50 needs to close and sustain above the 23,600–23,700 levels in the next few sessions for a move toward the 23,800–24,000 zone. Until then, consolidation may continue, with immediate support at 23,350, followed by 23,000 as a crucial support level.
Sustainability of uptrend will be the key going forward. Overall, the structure is still in favour of bears, and the focus remains on oil prices, with traders monitoring developments related to the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran.
According to experts, if the Nifty fails to take support at the psychological level of 23,000, a fall toward 22,700 cannot be ruled out in the upcoming sessions. However, 23,300–23,500 can act as immediate resistance.
Bears seem to be keeping tight control over the market in the upcoming sessions, possibly pushing the Nifty 50 below the immediate support of 23,500 and signalling a major risk for the 23,200–23,000 zone. Notably, 23,000 has the maximum Put open interest.
Momentum indicators maintained sell signals, while the narrowing gap between the 50- and 200-day EMAs increased the possibility of a move toward a death cross, signalling bears having the upper hand.
Strong follow-up buying interest is required for a further Nifty uptrend. If that comes true in the next few sessions, the 24,300–24,500 zone is expected to act as an immediate crucial resistance for the Nifty, followed by 24,700. On the downside, the immediate key support is placed at 24,000, according to experts.
The overall structure looks weak as the bearish chart pattern of lower highs and lower lows remains intact, while the VIX soared to a 21-month high. Momentum indicators being in the oversold zone signal the possibility of some bounce, but the sustainability of the upside bounce is the key to watch.
The spiking VIX, along with bearish technical and momentum indicators, has now put 24,300 — the previous week’s low — at major risk. In fact, experts feel the index is likely to break this support, and if that comes true and sustains below it, a correction towards 24,000-23,800 cannot be ruled out in the upcoming session.
The bears maintained the upper hand, given that the index is trading well below the 200-day EMA, the India VIX remains elevated (though it cooled), and bearish momentum persists.
If the Nifty 50 breaks and sustains well below 24,300 zone, a fall towards 24,050–24,000 cannot be ruled out. However, 24,600 is expected to act as the immediate key resistance, experts said.
Given the complete dominance of bears, driven by subdued momentum, weak technical indicators, and a sell-off across global markets, the previous day's low (24,603) and the August low (24,338) are expected to be at major risk in the upcoming session. Below these levels, bears may target 24,000, experts said.
The momentum indicators maintained a sell signal, and the bears received a further boost from intensified US-Iran tensions, both of which hint at a sharp gap-down opening for the market on March 2.
If the Nifty 50 decisively breaks below the 25,400–25,350 levels, further weakness toward 25,250 and 25,000 cannot be ruled out in the upcoming sessions. However, the immediate resistance is placed in the 25,600–25,650 zone, and only a convincing trade above this range may bring the bulls back, according to experts.
Consolidation with range-bound trading is expected to persist in the short term until the Nifty 50 decisively breaks out of the 25,300–25,900 range on either side.
Given the sharp sell-off, the Nifty 50 may attempt a bounce-back, facing resistance at the 25,500–25,600 levels, as sustaining above this zone alone can push the index toward 26,000. However, in the event of further consolidation, the 25,300–25,200 range is expected to act as an immediate support zone.
The immediate key hurdle for Nifty 50 is placed at 25,800. Surpassing and sustaining this level could prepare the index for a move toward the 25,900–26,000 zone, which may open the door to a record high. Until then, range-bound trading may continue.
As long as the index holds above this level, along with the positive signal from the US Supreme Court striking down Trump’s tariffs with a 6–3 vote—though Trump later announced an increase in global tariffs to 15 percent from 10 percent—a possible move toward the 25,900–26,000 levels (which also coincide with recent swing highs) may occur in the upcoming sessions.
If the Nifty 50 decisively breaks 25,400 in the upcoming sessions, a fall toward the 25,300–25,200 zone cannot be ruled out. However, holding above 25,400 could take the index toward the 25,500–25,600 zone.
The continuation of the higher high–higher low formation, falling VIX, decisive breakout of the downward-sloping resistance trendline, and improving momentum indicators signalled a positive mood in the market.
If Nifty 50 manages to close and sustain above 25,750, a rally toward the 25,900–26,000 levels cannot be ruled out in the upcoming sessions. However, 25,600 is expected to act as immediate support, followed by 25,500 as a crucial support level, according to experts.
The Nifty 50 needs to fill the bearish gap of February 13 by decisively surpassing and sustaining above 25,750 for a move towards 26,000. Until then, consolidation with range-bound trading may continue, with crucial support placed at 25,500–25,470, according to experts.
According to experts, the Nifty 50 is expected to see consolidation with range-bound trading as long as it trades below the 26,000 mark. However, there is a possibility of a bounce back on Monday after Friday's sharp sell-off, with immediate resistance placed at 25,600–25,700.
Experts expect some more consolidation, which is on expected lines after the recent rally, as long as the Nifty trades below the 26,000 zone. Immediate support is placed at 25,700–25,600, followed by 25,500 as the key support.
The benchmark index needs to convincingly scale above the 26,000 zone for a move toward its record high. However, as long as the index stays below this level on a closing basis, consolidation with range-bound trading may continue.