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As long as the Nifty 50 stays above 25,500–25,450 (key support), an upward move toward 25,800–26,000 is possible; however, a decisive fall below this level can open the door for 25,000, where the maximum Put open interest is placed, experts said.
Momentum indicators gave a clear buy signal and the VIX dropped further, while the index sustained above all key moving averages as well as above the previous day’s bullish gap.
Overall, trend remains positive, but after this stellar run, consolidation with support in the 25,600–25,500 zone cannot be ruled out.
Follow-up buying interest is needed for bulls to regain control, which now appears possible in the upcoming sessions as the US reduced reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods to 18 percent from 25 percent.
The index slipped decisively below the 200-day EMA—the last key EMA support—and hit a five-month low, with momentum indicators flashing sell signals.
Momentum still needs to strengthen, though it has gradually been improving over recent sessions. Strong momentum is possible only after the index convincingly surpasses the 25,650–25,700 zone.
According to experts, volatility is expected to remain elevated ahead of Union Budget, though it has cooled off slightly over the last two days.
Momentum indicators are signalling improving strength, but the Nifty 50 is still trading below all key moving averages (except the 200 DEMA).
Technical and momentum indicators still favour bears, with a cautious signal from the rising VIX. Experts expect the benchmark index to remain in the 24,900–25,500 range in the short term.
Short-term moving averages trended down, with momentum indicators showing a sell signal and an elevated VIX signalling caution.
This relief rally was on expected lines but, according to experts, needs a strong and sustainable close above 25,850 for continuation of the said uptrend. Until then, consolidation and volatility may be seen in the short term, given the bearish sentiment and elevated VIX.
The formation of indecisive pattern increases the possibility of a trend reversal after the recent fall, though confirmation is needed in the following session. In fact, the overall trend remains in favour of bears, and the VIX reached a seven-month high.
After a severe correction, the market may bounce back, but sustainability will be the key factor to watch.
Given the Nifty 50 has slipped below all key moving averages (except the 200 DEMA) and momentum indicators are weakening, a bearish to sideways trade may be seen in the next few sessions.
Until the Nifty 50 decisively breaks the 25,600–25,900 range on either side, consolidation and caution may continue, experts said.
The index is expected to get a firm direction only after it convincingly breaks the 25,600-25,900 range on either side.
Consolidation is expected to continue until the Nifty 50 convincingly surpasses the 25,900–26,000 hurdle.
The formation of a Piercing Line pattern raised hopes for a continuation of the uptrend; however, momentum indicators still need to align with the bulls for a sustained market uptrend.
Experts expect bears to maintain the upper hand, with the possibility of further consolidation over the next few sessions.
The rebound may be possible, but sustainability is the key to watch. If the index sustains below the 50 DEMA (25,900), the downward journey may extend toward 25,700, followed by 25,500. However, on the higher side, 26,000 is expected to act as resistance.
Consolidation with range-bound trade is expected to continue for a few more sessions before the index stabilises and rebounds.
If the Nifty 50 sustains below 26,200, the consolidation may continue, with the crucial support of 26,000 likely to be tested in the next few sessions, as a decisive fall below this level could bring bears into action. However, the 26,300–26,400 zone is expected to act as a resistance area.
As long as the Nifty 50 holds above 26,200, the possibility of a rebound towards the 26,400–26,500 zone cannot be ruled out. However, a decisive break below this level could push the index into a consolidation phase, with 26,000 emerging as a crucial support.
The Nifty 50 needs to decisively surpass 26,350 for a move towards 26,500–26,700. Until then, it may consolidate with range-bound trading, with the 26,100–26,000 zone acting as a key support, according to experts.
Experts believe the Nifty 50 is expected to give a strong breakout above 26,200 and march toward the 26,350–26,400 zone in the upcoming sessions. Until then, minor consolidation may continue, with immediate key support placed in the 26,050–26,000 zone.
